Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MusaPk]

Why you need bitcoin? Reason # 8333


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/zlywbq/just_a_reminder_of_what_can_happen/

So we must thank Satoshi for creating this, ending the monopoly of Banks and saving our future.

[1713943302]

1713943302

[Biodom]

Horizontal axis, block height divided by 140. Red, moving geometric mean over 210,000 blocks (one halving). Green, moving geometric mean over 105,000 blocks (half halving). Yellow, their ratio (times 100 to bring it into the frame). Sell signal when the rising half cycle ratio crosses 2; I guess crossing 2 in the other direction indicates buy.  Which we are approaching now.

Nice graph, but, imho, TA would be of less value in the next period.
Volatility in the markets is increasing (and rightfully so). Three mo ago DXY was at 114, now at around 104, indices are going up and down 600-800 points a day in a random fashion.
My feel is that macro is driving prices now: there are larger factors involved in comparison with our usual dynamics.
My feel is that in the next 12-18 mo the price of bitcoin will be completely random inasmuch as a fluctuation between 15 (hopefully, not below) and 50K.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

the morning wall report

dyor




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firms like FTX are "deliberately evasive", the incoming chair of UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), Ashley Alder, told the Treasury Committee in a meeting on Wednesday.

Alder told the committee that he will be starting with the U.K. financial regulator on Feb. 20. Alder is currently the CEO of Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), and once he starts at the FCA he will be working alongside FCA CEO Nikhil Rathi.

"They (crypto firms) are a method by which money laundering happens at size," Alder said.

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/incoming-fca-chair-calls-crypto-firms-like-ftx-deliberately-evasive-202212151215


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. . . Rather than aggressively regulating crypto and skeptically scrutinizing its claims, the CFTC has spent most of its time cheerleading the industry and trying to expand its jurisdiction rather than worrying about investor, customer, and markets protections.

First of all, the very existence of the CFTC is a blight on the entire US regulatory landscape. It is an aberration that was only born because back in the 1970s, the SEC was snooty about regulating pork belly futures. It has since been sustained in perverse life by the pork-filled nature of US politics.

https://www.ft.com/content/066a5e46-380c-4f51-b02c-4276d9a869a1


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A global rally sparked by softer-than-expected US consumer price index data came to an abrupt halt on Wednesday after the Fed sought to dispel hopes for a rate cut next year. While Fed and ECB slowed the tempo of their hikes to half a percentage point, Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde hammered home their resolve to remain persistent as they battle inflation.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-open-lower-hawkish-224244888.html

Market snapshot

Bitcoinl -2.3% to $17,413.13

S&P 500 -2.5%

Nasdaq 100 -3.1%

DJI -2.4%

MSCI World index -0.2%

Euro -0.8% to $1.0601

Pound -2% to $1.2181

Yen -1.9% to 138.00 per dollar

10-year  US Treasuries -0.3 to 3.44%

Germany’s 10-year yield +1.4% to 2.08%

Britain’s 10-year yield -0.7% to 3.24%

WTI crude -1.1% to $76.45 a barrel

Gold futures -1.7% to $1,788.50 an ounce

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4h


D

stronghands

[Unknown Op]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1603449826158444544?t=zbtJJmUydyKIwaviEu2leQ&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Here is the ultimate irony though:

Once mass layoffs begin in Jan/Feb and the MSM confirms that "We are *definitely* in a recession now!", all markets (including bitcoin) will rally.

Yep, rally.  Makes total sense.  

[gallianooo]

Nice graph, but, imho, TA would be of less value in the next period.
Volatility in the markets is increasing (and rightfully so). Three mo ago DXY was at 114, now at around 104, indices are going up and down 600-800 points a day in a random fashion.
My feel is that macro is driving prices now: there are larger factors involved in comparison with our usual dynamics.
My feel is that in the next 12-18 mo the price of bitcoin will be completely random inasmuch as a fluctuation between 15 (hopefully, not below) and 50K.

Agree with you. And it's not super "new". Macro drives almost everything since a while. Hope BTC will be decorrelated one day, but probably not for now or in a near future. Macro + till the majority of people will keep to use/consider Bitcoin as a speculative asset, instead of an alternative monetary system, it will stay like this. We need much more time. But we can still make new ATHs during this transition. Hopefully.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Some good discussion over the last 5-6 pages, a lot of OG’s posting, almost like the ol’ days. Less merit beggars who can barely type coherently in English.

Feeling nostalgic, good times!

[Biodom]

Here is the ultimate irony though:

Once mass layoffs being in Jan/Feb and the MSM confirms that "We are *definitely* in a recession now!", all markets (including bitcoin) will rally.

Yep, rally.  Makes total sense.  

my take:

btc either already bottomed or might do so by March.
Somewhere during q1 we will get a large surprise in inflation (on the downside).
Stocks would initially crash fearing deflation and interest rates being too high.
Fed will dilly dally for a month or so, then succumb and cut short term rates (Cramer would be screaming on CNBC again how "they just don't get it").
Of course, before doing so they would declare victory, alas, markets would respond to the cut with a ferocious downswing that would indicate that Fed was wrong again and raised too much.
Bottom by Q2 in equities (bitcoin flat), then a gigantic rally in "everything" with bitcoin going up at least 2-3X (from today's prices).
After that...hard to say.

[HI-TEC99]

Hey, how is that supposed "Santa Claus Rally" looking so far, eh?

You know, the one that the MSM financial news has been croning on about? 

[Torque]

Here is the ultimate irony though:

Once mass layoffs being in Jan/Feb and the MSM confirms that "We are *definitely* in a recession now!", all markets (including bitcoin) will rally.

Yep, rally.  Makes total sense.  

my take:

btc either already bottomed or might do so by March.
Somewhere during q1 we will get a large surprise in inflation (on the downside).
Stocks would initially crash fearing deflation and interest rates being too high.
Fed will dilly dally for a month or so, then succumb and cut short term rates (Cramer would be screaming on CNBC again how "they just don't get it").
Of course, before doing so they would declare victory, alas, markets would respond to the cut with a ferocious downswing that would indicate that Fed was wrong again and raised too much.
Bottom by Q2 in equities (bitcoin flat), then a gigantic rally in "everything" with bitcoin going up at least 2-3X (from today's prices).
After that...hard to say.

It could play out like that.

Also note that markets normally front run *ahead* of what the Fed will do (with insider info, of course). I.E., they will rally 3-4 months ahead of a Fed rate cut because they are expecting a return to (fake) growth again. If the market temporarily tanks on a Fed cut announcement, it just means one last washout to rekt margin longs before moving up again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

Calling the bottom @ $13550-$14550 on January 10th, 11th or 12th, wicking the 365 WMA, and closing the weekly candle above $15550.
There Jay, choke on that.


gembitz already did us the honour, so if proudhon, mindrust, majormax or even r0ach can pay us a visit - that would be great.


Watching Graham Hancock’s Ancient Apocalypse series.
Very excited to see such an excellent -truthful- investigation of pre-history events, compiled in a critical-thinker’s manner.
[Ancient Aliens crap - is the MSM distorted version of the true story.]

Free stream, fuck Netflix:
https://ww22.123movies.ski/tv/ancient-apocalypse-90187

We are all Atlanteans.

[BitcoinBunny]

Special treatment? I can think of a special treatment diet that would include cyanide, a rope, an electric chair, a buried alive coffin and a firing squad for all 3 sick fuckers, not JUST their imbecile criminal son! Sick in their heads thinking he deserves bail because of a vegan diet. Madness.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11543247/Sam-Bankman-Frieds-Stanford-professor-parents-rush-Bahamas-jail-visit-him.html

[Cryptotourist]

Sick in their heads thinking he deserves bail because of a vegan diet. Madness.

You’re missing the greater picture.
The parents are afraid that their beloved son, will become accustomed to “eating meat” in prison, many inches of it at a time, and then what?
FTXXX?
Hunt-ing SBF?
Analeda?
 

[Gachapin]

.... because of a vegan diet.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11543247/Sam-Bankman-Frieds-Stanford-professor-parents-rush-Bahamas-jail-visit-him.html

mmh... I guess that's why he has soy tits and grey skin color

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation