Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

....
I am “lame”. How old are you? 9?

I'd say maybe a little older. He wants validation.... like we all do.

Lookie uie..

Bonding with your favorite butt buddy.. aka cryptotourist..

hahahahahahaha

I am blushing by merely witnessing such public display of affection..







and, no... I am not jelly.

 

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

[sirazimuth]

Bonding with your favorite butt buddy.. aka cryptotourist..

hahahahahahaha

Judging from last few pages, I thought he was yours  .........hahahahahahaha.  

Wait, you are not jelly?  Is that one stage up from snowflake?

[JayJuanGee]

not exactly what you'd wanna hear from CZ...
"The only correct answer would have been, we don’t use customer funds and they are available for withdrawal."
https://twitter.com/nvk/status/1603519761111031809

Now the answer to a clawback question would be that fuck that shit.. we are not giving any of it back, and the lawyers will figure out a way that we do not have to .. but if we were to have to give it back, then we would be able to handle it.. but at this point, we doubt that it is likely that we are going to have to give it back because of what it was and how it was structured.. so it is pure speculation that we would even have to give it back.

your answer above would be way better than his.  I feel he needs some media training ...or a JJG bot  

Could be.  But CZ is no dummy, even though I agree that clip makes him look not so smart.. and the clip is also being misread too, so I am kind of thinking that he might have gotten caught off guard..  

By the way, I think that even really smart people can get caught into weird positions and situations and they say dumb things.. so sometimes any of us can be smarter than even the greatest of geniuses when we are Monday morning quarter-backing or even if we are seeing that a situation is running out of control (like a run on the bank in relation to Binance that is likely not going to end up in a crash, but who wants a run on the bank anyhow?... even though there are probably ways to take advantage of runs on the bank, too.. including short-squeezes)..  

For example, I think that Saylor is way smarter than me, but I have seen him do and say some pretty dumb things that he has had to walk back.. even Adam Back.. hahahaha.. I am not going to claim to be smarter than Adam Back, but I have seen him say some things that were not really very smart.. so maybe any of us can do it.. especially if we might have worked through a topic or even specialized in a certain area, and then we see smart people who are not very versed in the area of our specialty.

.......I'm a rude bastard when I drink... and when I don't drink, too.

FTFY

 

Bonding with your favorite butt buddy.. aka cryptotourist..

hahahahahahaha

Judging from last few pages, I thought he was yours  .........hahahahahahaha.  

You got a good point.  Touché.

Wait, you are not jelly?  Is that one stage up from snowflake?

You might be mixing up "jelly" with "spineless".  Those are similar concepts but different in reference to context.. like how this here cat had used "jelly" in that there previous sentence..  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[virasog]

[sirazimuth]

...
You got a good point.  Touché.

....

.... but different in reference to context.. like how this here cat had used "jelly" in that there previous sentence..  

details...

....

.......I'm a rude bastard when I drink... and when I don't drink, too.

FTFY

 

....

Oh bollocks! I didn't delete soon enough....You bastard....
Oh well, at least you didn't quote the juicy comment I deleted before that one ...lol

<img that will rile up folks in here>

oooh...  you are a brave soul indeed  <s merit> (similar to a "like" in various social media thingies)

[Gachapin]

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

Of course, we are free to make almost any contract even to our disadvantage, and we are free to trust each other or not.

However when customers buy 1 Bitcoin and they agree with the seller (exchange) that he'd hold it for them, that doesn't mean that they agree (or even know) that the same 1 Bitcoin is sold to several other people as well.

In comparison: Banks do fractional reserve too. But there is public reliable info that they do it, and that they even have a legal permission to do it ... fwiw
So you knowingly agree to such terms when creating a contract with them.

With exchanges though, I estimate that none of them publicly admit to do fractional reserve although many of them certainly do.  So they never disclose it to their contracting partner, which turns it into some kind of legal or at least moral fraud (depending on local laws)  

[Gachapin]

yeah and people with bigger shoe size earn more money in general. I guess we should all wear bigger shoes

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

not exactly what you'd wanna hear from CZ...
"The only correct answer would have been, we don’t use customer funds and they are available for withdrawal."
https://twitter.com/nvk/status/1603519761111031809

Now the answer to a clawback question would be that fuck that shit.. we are not giving any of it back, and the lawyers will figure out a way that we do not have to .. but if we were to have to give it back, then we would be able to handle it.. but at this point, we doubt that it is likely that we are going to have to give it back because of what it was and how it was structured.. so it is pure speculation that we would even have to give it back.

your answer above would be way better than his.  I feel he needs some media training ...or a JJG bot  

Could be.  But CZ is no dummy, even though I agree that clip makes him look not so smart.. and the clip is also being misread too, so I am kind of thinking that he might have gotten caught off guard..  

By the way, I think that even really smart people can get caught into weird positions and situations and they say dumb things.. so sometimes any of us can be smarter than even the greatest of geniuses when we are Monday morning quarter-backing or even if we are seeing that a situation is running out of control (like a run on the bank in relation to Binance that is likely not going to end up in a crash, but who wants a run on the bank anyhow?... even though there are probably ways to take advantage of runs on the bank, too.. including short-squeezes)..  

For example, I think that Saylor is way smarter than me, but I have seen him do and say some pretty dumb things that he has had to walk back.. even Adam Back.. hahahaha.. I am not going to claim to be smarter than Adam Back, but I have seen him say some things that were not really very smart.. so maybe any of us can do it.. especially if we might have worked through a topic or even specialized in a certain area, and then we see smart people who are not very versed in the area of our specialty.

I think CZ is smart and skillful in general at running a big exchange.  

But he chose to play the official spokesperson for his company, so it becomes part of his job to handle difficult questions and attacks in hostile interviews.  

He clearly showed to be not well prepared for this part of his job.

Either you do the job right, or you assign a trained PR or media professional for that task.

There is just no room for fuck-ups or weak answers in such an environment (huge company, reach of interview, critical timing for credibility)

[JayJuanGee]

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

Of course, we are free to make almost any contract even to our disadvantage, and we are free to trust each other or not.

However when customers buy 1 Bitcoin and they agree with the seller (exchange) that he'd hold it for them, that doesn't mean that they agree (or even know) that the same 1 Bitcoin is sold to several other people as well.

I doubt that we are saying anything different.  My main point was that our agreement results in our creation of money.. blame OgNasty for that because he granted us credit.

Sure, it is possible that we never end up paying him back.

In comparison: Banks do fractional reserve too. But there is public reliable info that they do it, and that they even have a legal permission to do it ... fwiw
So you knowingly agree to such terms when creating a contract with them.

Maybe we are disagreeing here, in part?  because I doubt that the bank is very much different, except they are just doing it on a larger scale, and they specialize in that kind of service of loaning and creating money and sure they follow standards too.. and they have licenses and permissions.. but we are able to do those kinds of things too.. just more informally.. and of course, banks might get so specialized and BIG that they are permitted special status to fuck people over.... and you remember in March 2020 or soon thereafter, banks were allowed to go from 10% reserves to zero% reserves...

Moral hazard in regards to loans and creation of money can exist on either side of the loan.  Maybe we don't really disagree? - each of us is just emphasizing different aspects.

With exchanges though, I estimate that none of them publicly admit to do fractional reserve although many of them certainly do.  So they never disclose it to their contracting partner, which turns it into some kind of legal or at least moral fraud (depending on local laws)  

Of course they engage in fractional reserve, and I doubt that governments are going to necessarily want to stop them from engaging in behaviors to attempt to undermine bitcoin - even though sometimes they might give some lip service to "protecting people" so both of us realize, likely, that it will take a while to change behaviors and even for customers to realize that they might have to be able to preserve their contractual relationships with third parties that allow them to take possession of their coins.  Some third parties will be more responsible than others, and so we all have to get used to some of these dynamics, including figuring out how much we might want to participate in any of those transitional services that are going to continue to evolve. but not without several casualties along the way including that some of us could become casualties as well if we do not sufficiently / adequately play our own hands.

[edited out]

I think CZ is smart and skillful in general at running a big exchange.  

But he chose to play the official spokesperson for his company, so it becomes part of his job to handle difficult questions and attacks in hostile interviews.  

He clearly showed to be not well prepared for this part of his job.

Either you do the job right, or you assign a trained PR or media professional for that task.

There is just no room for fuck-ups or weak answers in such an environment (huge company, reach of interview, critical timing for credibility)

Yes.  Maybe he does need to delegate some of that spokesperson work.

Elon should delegate some of his work sometimes too.. and sometimes big leaders have trouble with some of that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Even with all the calamity in the marketplace, Bitcoin has held up extremely well.  It's more stable than most other things even when you look at a 90 day chart.  When you look at what's happened over that time, it's amazing to see things so flat.  There was the FTX drop but not the volatility you'd expect afterwards.  More clear signs that we have to be in the accumulation phase.  Now is the time to be filling your bags with BTC and setting those bags on ice for 2 years.  If the paper Bitcoin problem gets solved, we could be in for real fireworks this next time around.

I fear paper Bitcoins will remain. A new sucker born every minute

Yep.. truth of the matter is that paper bitcoin will be hard to eliminate complete.. even though it is likely people will get burnt, and burnt and burnt when they do not adequately protect themselves during circumstances in which paper bitcoin are "at issue."

Look: you, me an OgNasty can go out for dinner and fun on the town, and then the bill ends up being 1.2 Bitcoin.. but we decide NOT to pay it all in full at the moment.. so maybe OgNasty covers for you and me, Gachapin.. and therefore we each owe him 0.4 BTC.. and we decide to do payments over the next 4 years... or maybe 2 years?  who knows?. we can figure out something... but in the process of agreeing to our paying back the guy with the BIG bucks (aka OgNasty), then we have created 0.8 BTC.. but hey, if we settle our bill in 4 years and pay back Ognasty for all the fun that we had out on the town, then we are back to normal after we pay him back.. and who's going to stop us from entering into such an arrangement if we all agreed to it?

Of course, we are free to make almost any contract even to our disadvantage, and we are free to trust each other or not.

However when customers buy 1 Bitcoin and they agree with the seller (exchange) that he'd hold it for them, that doesn't mean that they agree (or even know) that the same 1 Bitcoin is sold to several other people as well.

I doubt that we are saying anything different.  My main point was that our agreement results in our creation of money.. blame OgNasty for that because he granted us credit.

Sure, it is possible that we never end up paying him back.

The point is, if we take your example, the dinner we "had" wouldn't even exist (at least not enough for us both).
So we'd owe him money (or BTC) for something we could never have.

...At least, if we are still talking about buying paper BTC on exchanges doing BTC fractional reserve

[Gachapin]

In comparison: Banks do fractional reserve too. But there is public reliable info that they do it, and that they even have a legal permission to do it ... fwiw
So you knowingly agree to such terms when creating a contract with them.

Maybe we are disagreeing here, in part?  because I doubt that the bank is very much different, except they are just doing it on a larger scale, and they specialize in that kind of service of loaning and creating money and sure they follow standards too.. and they have licenses and permissions.. but we are able to do those kinds of things too.. just more informally.. and of course, banks might get so specialized and BIG that they are permitted special status to fuck people over.... and you remember in March 2020 or soon thereafter, banks were allowed to go from 10% reserves to zero% reserves...

Moral hazard in regards to loans and creation of money can exist on either side of the loan.  Maybe we don't really disagree? - each of us is just emphasizing different aspects.

Yes we could do it ourselves. The important part is if the contract partner is informed or not (or can be sure) that the lender is doing fractional reserve.  With banks you are informed, and you can take that knowledge into account when deciding for or against a contract.

With exchanges though, I estimate that none of them publicly admit to do fractional reserve although many of them certainly do.  So they never disclose it to their contracting partner, which turns it into some kind of legal or at least moral fraud (depending on local laws)  

Of course they engage in fractional reserve, and I doubt that governments are going to necessarily want to stop them from engaging in behaviors to attempt to undermine bitcoin - even though sometimes they might give some lip service to "protecting people" so both of us realize, likely, that it will take a while to change behaviors and even for customers to realize that they might have to be able to preserve their contractual relationships with third parties that allow them to take possession of their coins.  Some third parties will be more responsible than others, and so we all have to get used to some of these dynamics, including figuring out how much we might want to participate in any of those transitional services that are going to continue to evolve. but not without several casualties along the way including that some of us could become casualties as well if we do not sufficiently / adequately play our own hands.

sure, you and I know exchanges do FR but it must be officially disclosed to their customers in order to not be fraud, IMO

[Gachapin]

is she a cRyPTo trader?  dumb question.. of course she is...

[Biodom]

For the discussion above, i would posit that the number of truly "existing" bitcoins in the circulation is an unknowable number.
Yes, we know how many were "issued" aka mined, but all we know are UTXOs.
We don't know if the last "owner" lost his/her key or not BEFORE they either sign the next txn or sign the message with the address signature.

btw...who is the dude on the right? Jenny was much prettier before too. Time does not play nice with anyone, sadly.

[bangjoe]

brrrrrrrrrrr.......
heyyy friend!
The remaining five dollars of your daily allowance are worthless...
If you put it in the bank and hope that one day you can buy a supercar...
huppppttt....are you crazy?...
Trust me, my friend, your money will be eaten up by inflation and bank cuts and your dreams will vanish unless you store that money in Bitcoins.

Come dance with me when the price comes back