Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Is this bullish enough for you?



My body is ready

[1715113917]

1715113917

[1715113917]

1715113917

[1715113917]

1715113917

[JayJuanGee]

Does not matter if it is noise or if we drop under 20k or even go to the original terrible predictions for this bear say 12-13k.  Or if we bounce right back to 25k and then 30k.

Because of my discussions here and my mining setup I have decided to go about this in a different manner.

We all know btc will not do 120% on the button 20 years in a row.

For me at 66 I have decided that 76 is my time line for dca and buy the dip hodl moves.

And they are separate from my mining moves (this is due to JJG's influence)

I look at gold in the 1992 to 2003 range it was 200-400 the whole time

it hit 1848 by 2011 and from 2011 to 2023 it has been in a 1064 to 2050 slot

If BTC is to be in a 28.7 to 69 slot from dec 2020 to now.

the same rise of 4.5 to 5.0 could happen over next 8 years and maybe we push 300k by 2031-2032
https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price
charts of gold are interesting when cherry picked as follows:
1992 to 2003 = flat slot
2003 to 2011= big jump
2011 to 2023 = flat slot
so cherry pick btc and does dec 2020 to feb 2023 = 1992 to 2003 for gold

thus  2023 to 2025 btc could = 2003 to 2011 for gold

and we are near 300k really quick

I am thinking we do not see this speed.

So I set a 10 year plan for my dca + dip and hodl all independent of mining.

so 2032 nov or bust. for my current 'investment buys'

I cannot really argue with your attempt to make some kind of comparisons how BTC price could do both flat and stair-stepping moves in the next 10 years or longer, but it is still somewhat of an inadequate way to really attempt to consider what bitcoin is as a new paradigm shifting asset class.  Whether we are talking about gold in the last 120 years or even talking about it in the past 30-50 years, like you want to do, gold was not a new asset class at that time, even though gold was being pigeon-holed into new financial instruments and there were various ways that gold was being suppressed and simultaneously being sent to the USA ("for safe keeping") and other national adoption dynamics between WWII and the 1971 rug pull.. and even somewhat allowances to have free market value while being "paperized" thereafter.

It seems problematic to be attempting to make too many parallel comparisons with what bitcoin might do as compared to what gold had done in part because bitcoin is around 1,000x better than gold - but also there are some attributes of bitcoin that causes a lot of difficulties for various powers that be to be able to manipulate bitcoin in the same kinds of ways that they had been able to manipulate gold - and I am not even saying that they are not going to try old methods or to attempt to be able to innovate, but lots of the powers that be manipulator wannabes seem to be a bit out of their depth if they really believe that they are going to either be creative enough to manipulate BTC in similar ways or that they even understand the powers of the ability to verify bitcoin quite easily and to take possession quite easily in order to put wrong doers, and manipulators into check.. Sure they can make paper markets and attempt to cause BTC holders to believe that some of the entities are holding BTC, but still there are ways to verify - and one of the ways is to just remove your coins from custodians and refuse to enter into contracts with custodians that force you to not be able to take possession, and governments are likely to get their lil selfies into trouble if they try to force the use of custodians when there are already ways that normies are able to hold their own BTC.. without asking for any possession..

So part of my point is that even if none of us are really able to have concrete ideas where bitcoin is going and how the various wars and battles are going to play out - including whether if "strong-arm" legislators (& perhaps banks too) are going to end up forcing BTC into "other jurisdictions," each of us has to be careful if we are trying to make too many comparisons of bitcoin to some of the other assets that might share some features and use cases, but in the end they are different asset classes with differing price dynamics, including a different historical context.

Even if stock to flow might be in low regard, I still consider that his model still helps us to appreciate bitcoin, even if maybe the curve needs to be shifted down, so using the three main bitcoin models of the 1) stock-to-flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential scurve adoption based on Netcalfe principles and network effects still remain a better way of thinking about how bitcoin retains cycles with a kind of ongoing underlying explosive potentials that continue to put UPpity price pressures upon it, even if various status quo rich individuals/institutions of manipulators, legislators, and financial folks are fighting to both keep it down or stop it from going out.. and sure maybe they are going to be able to continue to have some success in keeping it down.. but I would not bank on the success of those efforts or the success to keep my lil precious in some kind of neat container that fails/refuses to explode UPpity from time to time with such power that it melts faces or whatever kind of contrary to expectations scenarios that we prefer to visualize.

Regarding your personal expectations of a 10-year investment timeline, you can do whatever the fuck you want.  It's your life; however, it seems a bit strange to be investing with any kind of level of building and/or accumulation of a position with a 10 year timeline for anyone who is 66 years old, so in that sense, what you are saying that you are doing is likely not even  really what you are doing.  By age itself, you likely already realize that you have to take a less aggressive position.. You are forced into a situation in which you have funds that you can live off of.. and that you have some expectation that you might not be able to generate extra cashflow from work... otherwise what you going to do?  Slave until you die?  You should be winding down by now, and the ONLY reason anyone is going to be expecting cashflow from work when they are in their 60s or later would be that they are recognizing that they failed/refused to adequately prepare prior to that.

Maybe your situation becomes so difficult to argue because it is somewhat particular.. but it just seems problematic for anyone who is 66 years old to be suggesting a 10 year investing timeline, and it seems to me that you were even more realistic earlier (a couple of years ago) when you said something about your having a 5-year investment timeline.. I don't want to go back and search for the post.. but still.

Maybe one way of making sense out of what you are saying would be to suggest that BTC is something that you are merely doing on the side, and that you already have the rest of your investment portfolio (including that you are already drawing from it) in place.  You know many retirement systems (in the USA) force withdrawal methods that are at least 4% per year starting from when the retiree is 72.5 years old... so any money that you have into those kinds of systems will have some forced withdrawal.  I don't even want to get into all of this...that have to do with cashflow issues, but sometimes, there still might be some needs  to consider if all living expenses are covered by various sources that are coming in (various kinds of pensions, social security, 401k and some of those have some preset amounts that are just part of covering cashflow), and there could be investments in property, equities, commodities and bonds that do not have presets, so there is ongoing discretion regarding withdrawing from them, and even liquidating all or part of them, and yeah the portion of your mining business might be considered part of that.. whether you were to have it set up as a asset that generates income without much of any efforts from you or if you are even able to retain any passive holding into it.. but seems that your agreement requires you to do some work in order to retain the current interest that you have... and maybe it is not that much work.. and like you said earlier, you enjoy "keeping busy."

In some sense, I feel like throwing up my hands, yet if we are trying to discuss these kinds of matters in general applicability ways, then we do not necessarily need to get into too many details - in order to recognize that ways that any of us invest when we are in our 20s is going to differ from when we are in our 40s or in our 60s, but it just seems unrealistic to be talking about our 60s as if we have a 10-year investing timeline.. . .it's just off and doesn't seem like a good general way of talking about how anyone in their 60s generally might be considering these kinds of matters.. unless we might just be saying that Bitcoin happens to be some smaller portion of what we are doing (or systems that we already have in place).

Maybe I can give a bit of an example to attempt to particularize some of my frustration when dealing with the elderly?  I have at least a couple of relatives who currently are in their mid-70s, and I had been having similar conversations with at least a couple of these relatives of similar age categories since about 2014-2016, so each of the relatives would have been in their mid 60s at the time of my earlier conversations about bitcoin, so I had never really changed my perspective, and I used to consider that you need at least a 4-10 year investment timeline with bitcoin, so usually when accounting for their age, I would kind of bow out of any kind of aggressiveness/assertiveness in attempting to tell them that they "need to be 'in bitcoin' " because I was worried about their abilities to really dedicate some value into bitcoin that they can mostly NOT obsess about whether it is liquid or not for at least 4-10 years... and I also used to recommend getting the fuck off zero, so an allocation of between 1% and 10% into bitcoin.  

More recently (since sometimes after March 2020), as a general applicability idea, I upped my "get off zero" from 1% to 10% to a more aggressive (less whimpy) 1% to 25%, and at the same time, I started to feel that I could still recommend bitcoin to elderly folks, while proclaiming that they would just need to gravitate more towards the lower end of my recommendation spectrum, rather than NOT investing into bitcoin... So in some sense, I started to tell everyone, unless you see some immediate need for cash and you have various other investments, to get some bitcoin, even if you have to gravitate more towards the 1% rather than 10% or 25% that you might have done when you were younger.

So part of my point is that I am not against elderly folks investing into bitcoin, but based on timeline, the elderly have to end up gravitating more towards the lower end of the investment spectrum and should not be talking about their investment timeline as if they were in their 20s if they actually are in their 60s.. Elderly folks are forced (or should be forced, kicking and screaming) to invest less aggressively into bitcoin because they need to retain higher levels of liquidity (or potential for liquidity) than anyone in their younger years.. and the need for liquidity might kick in for other reasons (such as health or even just uncertainties in cashflow based on the kind of skills a person has. .in terms of his/her ability to earn money through work.. and yeah, other financial expense that could be part of someone's current status)... So, even if a mid-to-late 60s person can do whatever the fuck they like with their own finances, especially if they have adequately examined their own particulars, sometimes their choices are  not really going to be very typical (or applicable) for the overwhelming majority of 60 year olds who are likely getting into winding down stages of their finances (or maintanence) rather than much if any emphasis on accumulating positions.. especially in a potentially risky asset and especially if there could be situations in which they are not really able to project 4-10 years into the future, even if they are engaging in such seemingly irresponsible (pie in the sky) projecting that seems to be based on "best case scenarios" gonna live until 94.5 years and banging 10s all the way..  blah blah blah.

[BitcoinBunny]

[Lainta]

Which #Bitcoin    are you? 👇



https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1626589183753224198?t=Ezz3JrNWrB97FK6hjicEbg&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Do you want always be high?  

yes

[bitcoinPsycho]

Do you want always be high?  

yes

I  2nd that

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG





Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new?

Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum.. The best that they have is either figuring out their cashflow and getting started or alternatively going into debt (in order to establish a lump sum to start with), and I doubt that it is usually going to be a good idea to go into debt in order to buy a risky asset (such as bitcoin) unless you otherwise have your cashflow in order, which by definition is no longer the typical situation for the overwhelming majority of normies.. that's part of what makes a normie a normie in the first place.. fucked up finances and lack of much of any savings/investment.

So tell me, bitebits, are you wanting to get into the fray?

Are you working against the hypothetical or wanting to create your own fantasy set of facts that may or may not be typical of where normies are at in terms of their cashflow options and their psychology too?

I am not even completely against changing the hypothetical in order to allow that a person getting into bitcoin 9 years ago (let's say the beginning of 2014) might not have already had an investment portfolio of something like $50k or perhaps even $100k, but our working hypothetical was attempting to presume starting from zero, and deciding to get into bitcoin with an investment budget of around $100 per week.. that gets you $5,200 in a year or $47k in 9 years, but it does not get you the $100 per week before the week happens, so sure, for example in the first year, such normie investor could choose NOT to get into bitcoin at all, and ONLY watch and attempt to time the market.. and therefore by the time the next year comes, January 2015, he has $5,200 in front of him, and he can invest that $5,200 at that time.. but really is that realistic?  Put yourself into the situation.  Are you going to hear about bitcoin in early 2014, know that you want to invest, wait for a year while your $100 per week is building up, and then pounce on the bottom in January 2015?  Sounds like a bit of a fantasy, and dealing with some other kind of person that is not a normie...

Normies no don't work like that.  And, part of the reason that DCA works so fucking well for normies, is that it requires way the fuck less thinking.

I am not even suggesting that other approaches to accumulating BTC are not good.  I already suggest that DCA is the best of the three methods, but DCA can be supplemented with lump sum investing and buying on dips, which means that we might start with a default position that includes some kind of equal proportioning.. so if we start out with $12,000 in cash that would also supplement our $100 per week, then we might want to divide that $12k into three categories of consideration that involves DCA, lump sum and buying on dips, and the extent to which we deviate from 1/3 in each of the three categories would depend upon our own particular financial and psychological circumstances that should involve considering: our cashflow, how much bitcoin we have already accumulated, our other investments, our view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and our time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and our abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

The basics include DCA as the strongest of those tools to get the fuck started and don't be dickering around.. and of course, if we have a lump sum of cash to work with then we have more options than most normies who largely have to get the fuck off zero, get started with something and then as they build their position they can figure out if some kind of a more hybrid or personally tailored approach might work better, otherwise fuck lump summing as the starting strategy towards getting to richie status in BTC because all it causes is mental masterbaters, bitcoin naysayers, market timers, shitcoiners, fence sitters gamblers.. and perhaps some other negative categories of folks who fail/refuse to get the fuck started in their BTC investment/learning journey.  #justsaying

[xhomerx10]

Journey of Bitcoin in 2009 to 2022.

* in January 2009 - March 2010 BTC was basically nothing.
* May 2010 BTC price was: 0.08$.
* April 2011 BTC price was: 1$.
* November 2011 BTC price was: 2$.
* July 1, 2012 BTC price was: 15.25$.
* August 18, 2012 BTC price was: 10.50$.
* October 2013 BTC price was: 196.02$.
* November 2013 BTC price was: 1,154.93$.
* December 2013 BTC price was: 744.17$.
* January 2014 BTC price was: 841.49$.
* March 2014 BTC price was: 472.48$.
* May 2014 BTC price was: 612.13$.
* July 2014 BTC price was: 565.57$.
* September 2014 BTC price was:  376.08$.
* October 2014 BTC price was: 343.56$.
* December 2014 BTC price was: 309.9$.
* January 2015 BTC price was: 247.26$.
* March 2015 BTC price was: 226.94$.
* May 2015 BTC price was: 233.33$.
* July 2011 BTC price was: 286.74$.
* September 2015 BTC price was: 238.06$.
* October 2015 BTC price was: 327.58$.
* November 2015 BTC price was: 375.2$.
* December 2015 BTC price was: 424.96$.
* January 2016 BTC price was: 378.17$.
* March 2016 BTC price was: 414.46$.
* May 2016 BTC price was: 537.23$.
* July 2016 BTC price was: 635.59$.
* September 2016 BTC price was: 604.52$.
* October 2016 BTC price was: 693.9$.
* November 2016 BTC price was: 731.64$.
* December 2016 BTC price was: 952.46$.
* January 2017 BTC price was: 921.35$.
* February 2017 BTC price was: 1,189.95$.
* March 2017 BTC price was: 1,048.86$.
* April 2017 BTC price was: 1,311.59$.
* May 2017 BTC price was: 2,170.98$.
* June 2017 BTC price was: 2,547.32$.
* July 2017 BTC price was: 2,718.62$.
* August 2017 BTC price was: 4,676.14$.
* September 2017 BTC price was: 4,207.82$.
* October 2017 BTC price was: 6,130.56$.
* December 2017 BTC price was: 13,062.15$
* January 2018 BTC price was: 9,914.47$.
* February 2018 BTC price was: 10,903.02$.
* March 2018 BTC price was: 6,970.36$.
* April 2018 BTC price was: 9,268.72$.
* July 2018 BTC price was: 8,166.39$.
* August 2018 BTC price was: 6,938.51$.
* September 2018 BTC price was: 6,576.61$.
* November 2018 BTC price was: 3,952.45$.
* January 2019 BTC price was: 3,441.03$.
* April 2019 BTC price was: 5,151.43$.
* May 2019 BTC price was: 8,287.04$.
* June 2019 BTC price was: 12,024.08$.
* July 2019 BTC price was: 9,572.74$.
* September 2019 BTC price was: 8,085.71$.
* October 2019 BTC price was: 9,226$.
* December 2019 BTC price was: 7,251.28$.
* January 2020 BTC price was: 9,545.08$.
* March 2020 BTC price was: 6,483.74$.
* April 2020 price was: 8,773.11$.
* June 2020 price was: 9,188.06$.
* August 2020 BTC price was: 11,657$.
* September 2020 BTC price was: 10,764.28$.
* October 2020 BTC price was: 13,573.71$.
* November 2020 BTC price was:  18,114.41$.
* December 2020 BTC price was: 28,768.84$.
* January 01, 2021 BTC price was: 28,994.01$.
* January 10, 2021 BTC price was: 40,254.22$.
* January 15, 2021 BTC price was: 39,156.71$.
* January 20, 2021 BTC price was: 36,050.11$.
* February 01, 2021 BTC price was: 33,114.58$.
* February 15, 2021 BTC price was: 48,696.54$.
* February 22, 2021 BTC price was: 57,539.94$.
* July 20, 2021 BTC price was: 29,800$.
* September 06, 2021 BTC price was: 52,600$.
* September 28, 2021 BTC price was: 41,000$.
* October 20, 2021 BTC price was: 65,990$.
* November 08, BTC price was: 69,000$.
* December 04, 2021 BTC price was: 49,200$.
* December 17, 2021 BTC price was: 42,000$.
* December 23, 2021 BTC price was: 49,000$.
* January 2022 BTC price was: 45,871.07$.
* May 2022 BTC price was: 40,040.17$.
* July 2022 BTC price was: 24,678$.
* August 2022 BTC price was: 25,219$.
* November 2022 BTC price was: 21,486.08$.
* December 2022 BTC price was: 18,383.19$.

April 2013 was quite significant as the price of bitcoin rose to ~US$250 .  I remember this because I finally found an exchange and deposited money into it only to watch bitcoin rise significantly while I tried to buy enough to purchase the miner i wanted.  My bids kept getting left in the dust until I just gave up and waited.  Luckily it came back down significantly that time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Is this bullish enough for you?

My body is ready

That looks somewhat reasonable.. but I had frequently been considering that bitcoin is likely around 1,000x more valuable than gold, and that chart ONLY shows bitcoin as being around 20x more valuable than gold.

Also, there is no reason that over time, bitcoin would not end up absorbing all of the monetary value of the various assets that are listed.  It does not mean that those listed assets, lose their value, but that bitcoin absorbs the monetary/speculative value.. but it seems that Croesus had already attempted to account for reasonable numbers there.  

Not easy to argue with those numbers, even though I had been considering bitcoin as 1,000x of gold and also had been considering bitcoin to be able to accede up to $1 quadrillion in value in today's dollars which is kind of presuming that more value is created just because of bitcoin is opening up value creation possibilities that are not currently conceived of but come into being the more and more that bitcoin is adopted and put into practice... but even with bitcoin at a quadrillion dollars and absorbing all of the monetary value, from that chart, it shows bitcoin would ONLY be worth 100x the value of gold at its theoretical max, even though I like to say bitcoin is 1,000x the value of gold.. I suppose another way of getting there would be to suggest that gold is only worth $1 trillion rather than being worth $12 trillion, and that would suggest that by the time we really get down to the value of gold and shave out its monetary premium, then its industrial, jewelry value would thereafter ONLY be worth $1 trillion and bitcoin would be worth $1 quadrillion.. and sure even that seems like a stretch from Croesus's statement of facts regarding current monetary value.

Which #Bitcoin    are you? 👇

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1626589183753224198?t=Ezz3JrNWrB97FK6hjicEbg&s=19

That fork is just a fantasy... desire to create drama where no drama exists.

Bitcoin is not going to fork merely because some people (even influential OG bitcoiners) are "upset" (or "mad as hell") about dickbutts on the blockchain... they cannot do anything about it.  Dumb fucks.. (am I calling Adam Back, Luke Dasher, Jimmy Song, Tuur Demeester dumb/emotional fucks?   oh what blasphemy!!  Where is satoshi?  is he a scared-cat too? speaking of cats)

Journey of Bitcoin in 2009 to 2022.
* in January 2009 - March 2010 BTC was basically nothing.
* May 2010 BTC price was: 0.08$.
* April 2011 BTC price was: 1$.
* November 2011 BTC price was: 2$.
* July 1, 2012 BTC price was: 15.25$.
* August 18, 2012 BTC price was: 10.50$.
* October 2013 BTC price was: 196.02$.
* November 2013 BTC price was: 1,154.93$.
* December 2013 BTC price was: 744.17$.
* January 2014 BTC price was: 841.49$.
* March 2014 BTC price was: 472.48$.
* May 2014 BTC price was: 612.13$.
* July 2014 BTC price was: 565.57$.
* September 2014 BTC price was:  376.08$.
* October 2014 BTC price was: 343.56$.
* December 2014 BTC price was: 309.9$.
* January 2015 BTC price was: 247.26$.
* March 2015 BTC price was: 226.94$.
* May 2015 BTC price was: 233.33$.
* July 2011 BTC price was: 286.74$.
* September 2015 BTC price was: 238.06$.
* October 2015 BTC price was: 327.58$.
* November 2015 BTC price was: 375.2$.
* December 2015 BTC price was: 424.96$.
* January 2016 BTC price was: 378.17$.
* March 2016 BTC price was: 414.46$.
* May 2016 BTC price was: 537.23$.
* July 2016 BTC price was: 635.59$.
* September 2016 BTC price was: 604.52$.
* October 2016 BTC price was: 693.9$.
* November 2016 BTC price was: 731.64$.
* December 2016 BTC price was: 952.46$.
* January 2017 BTC price was: 921.35$.
* February 2017 BTC price was: 1,189.95$.
* March 2017 BTC price was: 1,048.86$.
* April 2017 BTC price was: 1,311.59$.
* May 2017 BTC price was: 2,170.98$.
* June 2017 BTC price was: 2,547.32$.
* July 2017 BTC price was: 2,718.62$.
* August 2017 BTC price was: 4,676.14$.
* September 2017 BTC price was: 4,207.82$.
* October 2017 BTC price was: 6,130.56$.
* December 2017 BTC price was: 13,062.15$
* January 2018 BTC price was: 9,914.47$.
* February 2018 BTC price was: 10,903.02$.
* March 2018 BTC price was: 6,970.36$.
* April 2018 BTC price was: 9,268.72$.
* July 2018 BTC price was: 8,166.39$.
* August 2018 BTC price was: 6,938.51$.
* September 2018 BTC price was: 6,576.61$.
* November 2018 BTC price was: 3,952.45$.
* January 2019 BTC price was: 3,441.03$.
* April 2019 BTC price was: 5,151.43$.
* May 2019 BTC price was: 8,287.04$.
* June 2019 BTC price was: 12,024.08$.
* July 2019 BTC price was: 9,572.74$.
* September 2019 BTC price was: 8,085.71$.
* October 2019 BTC price was: 9,226$.
* December 2019 BTC price was: 7,251.28$.
* January 2020 BTC price was: 9,545.08$.
* March 2020 BTC price was: 6,483.74$.
* April 2020 price was: 8,773.11$.
* June 2020 price was: 9,188.06$.
* August 2020 BTC price was: 11,657$.
* September 2020 BTC price was: 10,764.28$.
* October 2020 BTC price was: 13,573.71$.
* November 2020 BTC price was:  18,114.41$.
* December 2020 BTC price was: 28,768.84$.
* January 01, 2021 BTC price was: 28,994.01$.
* January 10, 2021 BTC price was: 40,254.22$.
* January 15, 2021 BTC price was: 39,156.71$.
* January 20, 2021 BTC price was: 36,050.11$.
* February 01, 2021 BTC price was: 33,114.58$.
* February 15, 2021 BTC price was: 48,696.54$.
* February 22, 2021 BTC price was: 57,539.94$.
* July 20, 2021 BTC price was: 29,800$.
* September 06, 2021 BTC price was: 52,600$.
* September 28, 2021 BTC price was: 41,000$.
* October 20, 2021 BTC price was: 65,990$.
* November 08, BTC price was: 69,000$.
* December 04, 2021 BTC price was: 49,200$.
* December 17, 2021 BTC price was: 42,000$.
* December 23, 2021 BTC price was: 49,000$.
* January 2022 BTC price was: 45,871.07$.
* May 2022 BTC price was: 40,040.17$.
* July 2022 BTC price was: 24,678$.
* August 2022 BTC price was: 25,219$.
* November 2022 BTC price was: 21,486.08$.
* December 2022 BTC price was: 18,383.19$.

April 2013 was quite significant as the price of bitcoin rose to ~US$250 .  I remember this because I finally found an exchange and deposited money into it only to watch bitcoin rise significantly while I tried to buy enough to purchase the miner i wanted.  My bids kept getting left in the dust until I just gave up and waited.  Luckily it came back down significantly that time.

Yes... I had similar thoughts regarding some price points being missing or inaccurate in terms of what BTC prices might have been doing during that time, which also begs the question regarding methodology for the numbers that are depicted (to the extent that they matter, or are representative of anything important or that they might just be contributing to meaningless clutter.. or showing various inaccuracies based on their seemingly incoherent presentation)

[Biodom]

@JJG








Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG








Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

Nice to see a formal verification of what I was casually talking about on multiple occasions.

Yeah.. but you still failed/refused to either stick with the actual hypothetical or to change it with some kinds of specifics.

Therefore, you have not addressed the issue.  $100 per week budget starting from January 2014.  When are you going to spend those building up $100 per week amounts?  What are your striking points for your various purchases over the past 470 weeks, starting from January 2014?  

I am not saying that you won't do better because you are smarter than the normal normie.. however, we not talking about smart fucks like uie-pooie..  We are attempting to refer to a potential application of some kind of a principle that can generally be applicable to normies that would be better than DCA..

Come on.  Go ahead.  


Do it.

Do it


Do it!!!!




Give us some guidelines beyond vaguely suggesting that it could be possible to beat DCA if you happen to have 100hours per week to dedicate to study the matter.. blah blah blah.. so fucking what.. you beat DCA and you got 22 BTC rather than 20 BTC (with the same amount of dollar value put into it) but you spent 100 hours per week doing it.  Do normies have that amount of time and abilities and are they smart enough?  


I say:























NOT!!!!!!!    






That's why start with DCA first as the default mode.. and then.. if you got's ur lil selfie some "special skills, abilities and circumstances" then you can start to branch out while keeping the basics, the foundations and the starting principles in mind... stay humble and stack sats.. blah blah blah.. matt odell

[bitebits]

@JJG





Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new?

Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum..

[...]

There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is.

[philipma1957]

Do you want always be high?  

yes

nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Do you want always be high? 

yes

nah you would get tired of being endlessly blitzed on drugs.

youre right

so leave it to professionals like us, we are all over that

[xhomerx10]

Today is Random Acts of Kindness Day (in the USA at least) and there's still plenty of time in the day to be spontaneously kind towards someone (other than yourself).

edit: I'd better clarify that there's nothing wrong in being kind to yourself - you might need it.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG



Source: https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1625597728385380352

None of that negates any of the points that I had been making... Yes, we know that lump sum will beat DCA so long as you buy in a dipping period as compared to buying in a peaking period, so what else is new?

Part of the issue for any normie remains whether they have a lump sum to invest in the first place, which an overwhelming majority of normies do not have any lump sum..

[...]

There might be more 'normies' than you think over the next years/decades with a sudden lump sum amount to invest. The wealthy boomer generation is getting old. For those it is good to be educated what the most efficient deploy of capital into bitcoin is.

Nothing wrong with figuring out how to employ your strategies and deploy your capital in ways to supplement DCA.. If you read my earlier responsive post, you should see that I am not unfriendly to either lump summing and buying on dips to supplement DCA, but you cannot forget about the power of DCA.. even if you have a lump sum at your disposal.

Let's say that you are somewhat new to BTC, and you have a $100k investment portfolio that you already established.  So you have become convinced that some kind of a medium appropriation into bitcoin would be warranted, and so you saw JJG's (or whoever's) suggestion to consider anywhere between 1% and 25% as your starting point, so you decided (you are responsible for your own decision) to allocate 12.5% to BTC.. So if you do it right away, that 12.5% is $12,500, and if you reallocate and lump sum into bitcoin right away, then you are taking that $12,500 from some other areas of your portfolio that might have tax consequences and even other consequences that might concern you in regards to financial and psychological difficulties in terms of doing it all at once.

Instead, you figured out a way that you could be more aggressive and establish your stake into bitcoin over 6 months or over 12 months.. and frankly you are much more comfortable in your ability to achieve such reallocation target in 12 months without having to suffer as much financially and/or psychologically.  Think about it.  There are a variety of factors, and sure you might have various assets that are allocated in such a way that you are not going to have tax consequences and you might even be able to liquidate some of your various assets, but the more that you try to create lump sums that are "available to uie pooie, the more that you are fucking with the hypothetical, because they hypothetical ONLY gives you $100 per week of cashflow that is coming in that would be available.. in order to attempt to figure out matters.. and yeah, maybe you inherited some money and you got a bonus, you closed a deal blah blah blah.   

So yeah, just like you said, there are ways that not only do you have a lump sum that has come available, it also is available in cash right now... yet even if you read my previous post and had understood what I was saying (which seems that you did not), you would still see that I had already suggested that a presumption would be to divide your surprise $12k lump sum that became available to you into three parts which would be 1/3 in DCA, 1/3 lump sum right away buying and 1/3 into buying on dips.  Sure, as an adult with full discretion, you could choose to allocate differently with that $12k that comes available to you, and you read the study and you decide that it is best to put it all in right away without delay.. and surely, I am not unsympathetic to those kinds of leanings, because for sure currently, we are in a situation in which BTC prices are just barely testing the 200-week moving average, but they had been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average (even 35% below the 200-week moving average) for more than 8 months, so you are speaking to the choir to some extent when you are telling me that we are at historical low price point and that lump sum might well perform way the fuck better than DCA during times like this... but still even though I consider myself to be a normie in several ways, I am not any kind of normal normie when it comes to bitcoin since I have had my eyes glued to charts for more than 9 years and reading (and battling) on the topic for more than 9 years too... but is a newbie normie going to feel confident enough to put 100% of their purported $12k of surprise new cash into lump sum rather than allocating some of that value to DCA and buying on dips?  I question those kinds of presumptions regarding what is a "newbie" normie.. .. that's for sure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation