Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Well well well, when the Fed raises the cost for start ups and corporations to borrow cheap debt, stocks crash, people get laid off en masse, and the world economies go to shit.

Oh my, who woulda thunk it? <picachuface.jpg>  

It's almost like...the world economies' corporations are completely subsidized now because they can't make a profit anymore? Who knew? /s

[Torque]

The Meta Quest 2 VR looked good but I must admit I got quite bored with VR on a cheap Oculus Go after 4-6 months and that was with the best quality VR Porn available to mankind. I doubt ANYTHING else would want me to put on a headset on a more regular basis.
Anyone curious should try it but again it's just not going to be lifestyle changing at all I would say.

IMO, VR and VR games are the most over-hyped "next big thing" going today. (well, next to folding screen smartphones anyway)

I imagine that a lot of people get FOMO'ed into buying the expensive VR gear, setting it up, play a few games a few times, and then after all the newness hype wears off....the gear sits gathering dust in the corner, as they go back to playing regular console or PC games again. Then eventually they sell their gear on EBay at a loss.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Of course it will shatter the hopes of many long term hodlers as well...  but we know, badger don't give a fuck about our feeewlings 

wut?

long term hodlers dont use hope as a stratagy.  we know how good the corn is and have proved it.. or we would not hodle through ~70k with a relaxed smile.

[jojo69]

[Biodom]

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752




....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

you misunderstood, sorry.
It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield.
Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books.

Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates.
personally, i think that Silvergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007.
Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage".

Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking.
Smart money accumulates.

[Gachapin]

Of course it will shatter the hopes of many long term hodlers as well...  but we know, badger don't give a fuck about our feeewlings 

wut?

long term hodlers dont use hope as a stratagy.  we know how good the corn is and have proved it.. or we would not hodle through ~70k with a relaxed smile.

ok then... let's call it expectations instead of hope...  expectations that the rest of the world catches on...

hodling my 3. bear.  relaxation: agreed.  but smiling?  not really. still too annoyed by leveraged bottom sellers

[Gachapin]

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752




....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

you misunderstood, sorry.
It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield.
Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books.

Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates.
personally, i think that Sivergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007.
Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage".

Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking.
Smart money accumulates.

Don't apologize. Thanks for explaining.

I see.. it's their books. but still, wasn't their problem the increase of yield in bonds that philip has been indirectly talking about, when he was cheering for i-bonds?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

SIVB-receivership?? Wow
two days ago the stock was $268, yesterday $108, now halted with news of possible sell and it currently being placed in receivership.
This is faster than Bear went down in 2007.
Let me guess: $2/share?

EDIT: this is an important bank for venture caps, had 175 bil(!) deposits at the end of December.

people REALLY should put money in bitcoin (not a financial advice).
 

[Richy_T]

When the whales mega short, they just love to follow up the FUD with a big dip below what they think are major psychological numbers.

Yep. Wait for some bad news, knock it down then squash any recoveries. Finish up with buying cheap coins.

I don't know about glass hands, it seems like people have banana pudding hands. How long until 2024?

[BobLawblaw]

Stay calm and hodl with conviction, folks.

[Richy_T]

At least we can party like it's 19.99

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Back up over $20k, barely.

Been away for a bit. Week from hell.

First our flight to Cancun was delayed twice and then cancelled by a massive blizzard. Then we were stuck on the plane when the connecting ramp at the airport gate malfunctioned. Didn't get to our hotel in Playa del Carmen until after midnight. Dentist appointment at 11:00am but we hadn't eaten since noon so we went out to the local live music bar only to find the kitchen closed. Luckily a friend working there talked them into making us some nachos con pollo. After 3 double margaritas each our hunger and stress were abated and we made it back to our hotel by 1:00am. Disco noise nearby kept us awake until after 3:00am.

Got up  at 8:00 for coffee and enchiladas con mole and were about to go out to find a taxi when the dentist Whatsapped me to say my teeth hadn't arrived from the lab as promised and re-booked me for 4:00pm, then again for 6:00pm. We sat in his waiting room for another half hour waiting for the delivery dude to finally show up. More margaritas required.

Made it out to our little jungle village to find out that they were going to shut down the power for 2 days. We turned on the freezer and froze enough buckets of ice to feed the Coleman cooler that serves as our fridge during outages. Our trusty little Honda EU2000i will run our freezer, air conditioner, LED lights and all our electronics including chargers for over 8 hours on a gallon of gas, but we have to turn off the AC to use anything else. Unfortunately someone had "borrowed" most of our well-preserved gas supply and we were critically low on fuel. The power outage meant that the gas pumps didn't work. Luckily a local kept an overpriced supply of gas available in big coke bottles.

The power is back on today so we again have internet which is our only communication. We have no landline or cellphone service here. Everybody uses Whatsapp. Luckily we've learned to be prepared for the unexpected out here.

Now to try to find a cheap flight back next week. Gotta be back before the end of March. Got a gig on April Fools Day.

Salud!

[Toxic2040]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Back up over $20k, barely.

Been away for a bit. Week from hell.

 
...when the dentist Whatsapped me to say my teeth hadn't arrived from the lab as promised....


More margaritas required.


Salud!

not sure how many times in life one would be able to write something like that down...and it be true as well...   

+1 WOsMerit



----------

[Biodom]

Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjI

Stocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo.
Makes sense, just before the halving.

That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut).

Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet.

[dogebearman]

When I shorted ETH last week at 1652.04 I did it as a consequence of BTC failing to break the 200MA resistance.
I was expecting BTC to confirm the technical double bottom of June 18th and November 09th one last time.
Now all this wind of news and fud is catching my sails, still I believe the bottom is in technically - just needs one more confirmation.
The only thing that has changed is that we are moving there faster now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

The Meta Quest 2 VR looked good but I must admit I got quite bored with VR on a cheap Oculus Go after 4-6 months and that was with the best quality VR Porn available to mankind. I doubt ANYTHING else would want me to put on a headset on a more regular basis.
Anyone curious should try it but again it's just not going to be lifestyle changing at all I would say.

IMO, VR and VR games are the most over-hyped "next big thing" going today. (well, next to folding screen smartphones anyway)

I imagine that a lot of people get FOMO'ed into buying the expensive VR gear, setting it up, play a few games a few times, and then after all the newness hype wears off....the gear sits gathering dust in the corner, as they go back to playing regular console or PC games again. Then eventually they sell their gear on EBay at a loss.

Yeah, I am at the 'gathering dust' phase and CBA with the selling part.