Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Learn Bitcoin]

Over the years, I have used quite a few different exchanges, and it seems that I have figured out some ways to not hold large amounts on any exchanges, even though surely some might consider my amounts to be large and the risk NOT to be worth it, and yes, each of us needs to figure out our own risk tolerance and even if we understand the risks.  I did not have any money on Terra luna, Celsius, Gemini earn, GBTC, Voyager, Blockfi, or FTX.. so maybe I am just lucky?  And my time is going to come.  By the way, I did lose some money on BTC-e.. so maybe I am just too stubborn?  And I have been hacked previously (through sim swap techniques), so maybe I am just too willing to lose money?

I know you won't keep your coins on any exchanges unless this is an amount you don't care about. I have used a few exchanges as well and I still do. I never been hacked or non of the exchanged freezer or seized my balance. So, you can consider me lucky as well.

Why would I blame myself?  I already know that Binance and Binance US has been on the hotseat for quite a while.. and what about Coinbase, should people stop using Coinbase too?  Oh no the Binance situation (level of scary) is much moar worser, right? 

I know that binance (and binance US) are not even close to the same kind of shame as FTX, even though a lot of dumb and ill-informed people talk about Binance and FTX as if Binance were the same as FTX.

Nah, Binance has a way better reputation than FTX. Binance becomes a giant exchange in the last few years. If somebody compares Binance with FTX; they don't know much about it. But since the platform is in question; I don't see any reason to use it with a large amount (At least for now) just sayin. Of course, everyone has their own Point of view and they might not agree with me.

There are probably dumber decisions that people can make in life...  so by definition, whatever I am doing could not be "the dumbest".. if you even know the meaning of the words that you choose to use, and I am thinking that it can be quite dumb to assume too much about the situation of another person.. of course, you are just trying to help, right? Especially since I likely suggested that you were not as smart as you are presenting yourself as being.

I am sorry if that was offensive. Maybe because of the language barrier? I am not trying to be a smartass. Just curious about it. I know you are an old-timer Bitcoiner. You must have good experience with using various services. Still, if you choose to use a platform that is in question; of course it's up to you. Once again, If you felt offensive by the word I have used; I apologize for that.

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[BitcoinBunny]

They found a debris field in the hunt for the Titan submersible.

At least they died quick by the looks of it and the families can have closure if confirmed it is indeed the Titan later today.

I'll say it again; OceanGate was more reckless than the White Star Line.

Especially sad for the 19 year old student who studied at a British uni. RIP.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

https://youtu.be/WYJZ_oJdNX0

^THIS^

Millions of clickbait vids on this tragedy because of course there is. Now it's over, this one is my sentiments exactly.
15 minutes long so it pushes the bounds of attention span, but I highly recommend it.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/neiljacobs/status/1671832763467542537?s=46&t=1pkPzC1FtXIsCLMoTb1G1Q

Those fucks are so ongoingly arrogant... and it seems like the same kind of press that might come today.. especially a week ago...

Another thing is that even if they wish all that they like, if they want to stay somewhat relevant, they are never really going to be able to "say goodbye to bitcoin"... because bitcoin is going to continue to rear its ugly head.  over and over and over again.

[edited out]

So you failed to properly prepare for uppity.

You are pretty lame.  Preparing for UPpity does not necessarily mean selling all or most of your coins if the BTC price happens to go up, which largely indicates that you are valuing your wealth in dollars, and surely there is nothing wrong with dollars in the short term, but there is also a need to consider a variety of assets that a person holds - and the degree to which any trading might be applicable.

This here situation happened to be both a fluke and a windfall, and so there was a lot of free money that just was turned over to me.. as a kind of windfall bonus.  Do you know what a windfall bonus is?  In case you do not know, I will 'splain it for uie-pooie.  A windfall bonus is something that is extra that is thrown your way that you have not necessarily done much if any work or expectation to receive.. yet you still end up receiving it.  Many of us have had windfall bonuses at various points in time in our lives, some of them more signifiant than others.  It's like winning the lottery without necessarily realizing that you had a lottery ticket.

only 2% on the exchange vs 5% sad so sad.

First off: I am not sad.  

Secondly:  Just for clarification, I said that the amount that I had on the exchange went from 2% of my holdings up to 5%  of my holdings based on this mistake that had occurred in my favor.  I would have had no reason to put 5% of my holdings on that particular exchange because of the ways that my sell orders (and my buy orders) had been set up based on my own deliberate actions.  I used to have quite a bit more BTC on the various exchanges that I use; however, in the last few years (actually starting from mid 2017), I increasingly moved more and more value off of exchanges, but I did not have that extra value in orders anyhow... so the fact that I moved it off, did not change the way that I structured my sell orders.

I have 6% of my btc on coinbase set in ladder sales.

That's not a bad number.  I use other exchanges besides BinanceUS... but those were my largest sell orders out of the various places that I have preset sell orders.  I used to have an account on Coinbase, but they kicked me off a few years ago...and I did not persist in trying to get another one..  I adjusted in other ways.

live and learn JJG  

You think that I need to learn how to put more value in those BTC sell orders?    You are so fiat focused, you likely don't even realize much of anything.  You are delusional (seemingly).   Did you check your blood sugars, recently?  You are getting so excited about some fantasy that you seem to have, no?

It seems that I did the opposite of what you are suggesting that I should do, and tentatively (at this point) I slightly reduced the sizes of my various BTC sell orders between $32,500-ish and $150k (they now allowed me to set my sell orders up to $150k), and part of the reason for my reducing my current BTC sell orders is that the filling of those sell orders from a couple of days ago, had already off-set quite a few of the little mistakes that I had made when I was creating some additional sell orders in the past few years (many of the lower sell orders (at least the ones below $100k) had been created in 2021.

So the fact that they all filled, I am put into even a better position than i had thought that I was... and I am not even saying that I was in any kind of bad position, but between about December 2021 and March 2022, there were some areas in which I had created relatively larger BTC sell orders in order to make up for some fiat that I had spent, but then the BTC price did not go back up, so those BTC sell orders did not get filled and they were just sitting on the books for the last couple of years and waiting for the BTC price to come to them (which it did in the last few days), and so any dilemmas that I had been feeling had been resolved (and even more than that) with the BTC price moving up..and then even an extra bonus with the BTC price mostly coming back down to the price ($28.8k-ish) in which it had started the whole process.  So it's almost a better position than anyone could expect.

Actually, when I describe how much I profited, it does not sound like very much.. when I am saying 1.5x of the holdings.. and going from 2% to 5%.. so maybe I increased my overall bitcoin portfolio holdings only 3% (and most of that still is in cash/USDT), but to me, the amount of quick and instant windfall profits feels like a lot.  

Nonetheless, when I had been further pondering about whether I might have profited more than goldkingcoiners with his 80x fat finger mistake, and I am starting to be willing to conceded that perhaps goldkingcoiner might have had profited more than me, relatively speaking.....does anyone just increase their holdings by 3% - after being in bitcoin for several years.  Sure when you are new, or a low coiner or a no coiner, then it is quite easy to increase your stash by a large amount in a short period of time.  However, it seems to me that goldkingcoiner did not reveal the maths (the particulars).. so we are not really going to ever know for sure (whether goldkingcoiner might have done better than yours truly) unless he discloses some of the details (if he can remember) a wee bit moar better.  

Peer pressure @goldkingcoiner.  Peer pressure.  Peer pressure.  Sharing is caring.  #justsaying.

[JazzyJester]

But why i can't participate in the pool about When will we see a new ATH in top page?

Is this because i m new account by 1 merit point?

[goldkingcoiner]

JayJuanGee is trying really hard to get behind the secret of me lucky charms...

As to the question of did I make a higher trading profit than him:

[OgNasty]

After this week’s monster move upward I’m a bit surprised we’re still holding near $30K. Barely a pullback at all from traders cashing in gains. This shows that the coins being scooped up are being held, likely by big banks, and likely to put in their funds that they will offer to investors. This could potentially be the most bullish phase of crypto, but also likely the most dangerous.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Never said BTC was broken. But they will need to adjust fee system faster than many think.

You said that BTC is structurally inferior to other POW coins, such as litecoin and doggie coin, and you said that you were convinced that the incentive systems in other coins, such as doggie coin, were going to beat bitcoin out because bitcoin was structurally inferior... unless bitcoin changes its mining reward mechanism....

So, yeah, even if you did not use the word broken, you seem to fail/refuse to accept the power of bitcoin, and you seem to think that bitcoin needs to be fixed in the direction that you are suggesting.

I think that you are a bit of a Nostradamus wannabe, and that you are trying to get credit for some kind of a novel idea, and it seems to me that no action is required at this point, even though it likely is not a problem to continue to monitor bitcoin and its incentives, and if it appears that bitcoin needs to be fixed down the road in order to create more of a tail emission or something like that, then the problem could be addressed when it becomes a problem rather than speculating on a problem and acting as if it exists when it seems to mostly just be a theoretical problem that might exist in the future, but then again it might not exist in the future.  The problem that you proclaim to exist is not as certain as you are making it out to be, and therefore it does not need to be addressed/fixed right now in an emergency way, as you seem to suggest to be needed.

I made out bigly on that Binance flash pump.
My 10 doggie doo coins multiplied 10x. I immediately filled out appropriate paperwork to have them cashed out and have the evil fiat deposited in my criminal bankster account.
Yes, I kyc'ed myself and now my life is ruined, but I think it was well worth the effort.
After all, I got a free six pack out of the deal.
Now I gotta work on making sure those scamming bastard Ledger folks don't make off with all my remaining riches of various other airdropped shitcoins and the like.
<BATSLAPPENING>

Oh gawd... 

I did a quick search and did not find ..

I only found this:  https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/doge_usdt

so I am not sure what you are talking about. 

I saw that DGB did more than a 10x..   https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/dgb_usdt

Fuck shitcoins... While we are at it... fuck ledger as well... get yourself some other device.. at least for your bitcoin.. and if you want to hold shitcoins on ledger, then whatever, do what you like...

Regarding the Binance shenanigans … and JsnowG:

That kind of looks like me.

justsaying.

There are probably dumber decisions that people can make in life...  so by definition, whatever I am doing could not be "the dumbest".. if you even know the meaning of the words that you choose to use, and I am thinking that it can be quite dumb to assume too much about the situation of another person.. of course, you are just trying to help, right? Especially since I likely suggested that you were not as smart as you are presenting yourself as being.

I am sorry if that was offensive. Maybe because of the language barrier? I am not trying to be a smartass. Just curious about it. I know you are an old-timer Bitcoiner. You must have good experience with using various services. Still, if you choose to use a platform that is in question; of course it's up to you. Once again, If you felt offensive by the word I have used; I apologize for that.

As I mentioned in another recent post, it is not always clear if I profit more from using exchanges rather than refraining from using exchanges (and shying away from them).  I mentioned earlier that it is my belief that I am able to be more aggressive in regards to the amount of bitcoin that I hold because of my participation in various exchanges and services - and that maybe I would hold less than half (or maybe less than 1/3) the amount of BTC that I currently hold, if I were ONLY relying on long term cold storage.. and then maybe I would also be afraid to do anything with my BTC if I were not ongoingly practicing with them.. moving them around in various ways through participating in aspects of the BTC economy (to the extent that any such thing can be said to exist).

[_Hiloveua_]

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten assures the safety of customer funds "There is zero precedent for clawback of customer funds from individual bankruptcy" 👀

He also encourages self-custody "we have free automatic withdrawals"



Source

[xzotovalex]

BTC in the near future 2 options. If it goes flat for several days, it can continue moving up to $34-35000. Then a drop to $23,000 and down.
With a higher probability, I now expect a gradual decline to $21-23,000.

Not financial advice.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

....

I made out bigly on that Binance flash pump.
My 10 doggie doo coins multiplied 10x. I immediately filled out appropriate paperwork to have them cashed out and have the evil fiat deposited in my criminal bankster account.
Yes, I kyc'ed myself and now my life is ruined, but I think it was well worth the effort.
After all, I got a free six pack out of the deal.
Now I gotta work on making sure those scamming bastard Ledger folks don't make off with all my remaining riches of various other airdropped shitcoins and the like.
<BATSLAPPENING>

Oh gawd... 

I did a quick search and did not find ..

I only found this:  https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/doge_usdt

so I am not sure what you are talking about. 

I saw that DGB did more than a 10x..   https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/dgb_usdt

Fuck shitcoins... While we are at it... fuck ledger as well... get yourself some other device.. at least for your bitcoin.. and if you want to hold shitcoins on ledger, then whatever, do what you like...

.....

Oh c'mon bro!... after 8 plus years of my silliness on this thread and you are still taking me seriously when I post crap like that? Its called satire

[philipma1957]

....

I made out bigly on that Binance flash pump.
My 10 doggie doo coins multiplied 10x. I immediately filled out appropriate paperwork to have them cashed out and have the evil fiat deposited in my criminal bankster account.
Yes, I kyc'ed myself and now my life is ruined, but I think it was well worth the effort.
After all, I got a free six pack out of the deal.
Now I gotta work on making sure those scamming bastard Ledger folks don't make off with all my remaining riches of various other airdropped shitcoins and the like.
<BATSLAPPENING>

Oh gawd... 

I did a quick search and did not find ..

I only found this:  https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/doge_usdt

so I am not sure what you are talking about. 

I saw that DGB did more than a 10x..   https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/dgb_usdt

Fuck shitcoins... While we are at it... fuck ledger as well... get yourself some other device.. at least for your bitcoin.. and if you want to hold shitcoins on ledger, then whatever, do what you like...

.....

Oh c'mon bro!... after 8 plus years of my silliness on this thread and you are still taking me seriously when I post crap like that? Its called satire

he's a  literal bot.  He just posted a long rebuttal of me accusing him of not being prepared for uppity.

[sirazimuth]

.....
he's a  literal bot. .....

We should now refer to him/her/they (yeah, pronouns are a bitch these daze) as ChatJJG  (almost rhymes with ChatGPT ...just sayin...)

GO BITCOIN

[goldkingcoiner]

BTC in the near future 2 options. If it goes flat for several days, it can continue moving up to $34-35000. Then a drop to $23,000 and down.
With a higher probability, I now expect a gradual decline to $21-23,000.

Not financial advice.

I expect you to be hodling an empty bag when Bitcoin goes 100k.

Also not financial advice.

[Learn Bitcoin]

Latest update of the missing Submarine

A remote vehicle involved in the search for the missing submersible that was exploring the wreckage of the Titanic has discovered a debris field, a finding authorities are evaluating, the U.S. Coast Guard announced Thursday afternoon. The search has entered a critical stage. The point at which the Coast Guard had estimated the vessel’s oxygen could run out — 96-hours after its departure — has passed, but Rear Adm. John Mauger said Thursday that the search-and-rescue mission would not stop.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/06/22/titanic-sub-missing-titan-update

[sirazimuth]

<reading tea leaves and goat entrails>

Not financial advice.

Captain Obvious says farmer bot you must be new here.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I don't have any problem with yor starting out by saying that maybe 20% of the Bitcoin have been lost or that maybe the loss rate is more than 1% per year, but even if we go by that math, losing 1% per year does not mean that the bitcoin supply is going to zero.

you must not know maths.

You can continue to lose 1% per year and the number will never go to zero.. it just gets smaller and smaller and smaller, but it does not go to zero... even if we were to assume 1.5% instead of 1% per year.

In other words, the whole world economy could run on 1 BTC. or 1 Satoshi. .. just divide the units in order to allow it to be more liquid (able to be spread out).. yes we might have to go to sub-satoshis, so what does that mean?  Sucks to be a hodler?  I think not.

Bitcoin is not broken due to its fixed and even shrinking supply... so there is no reason to fix it, and there would have been no reason for satoshi to put in such a dumb, illogical and inconsistent fix that started to issue more bitcoin supply, even though no coiners and low coiners frequently whine about such issues - partly based on their having had not sufficiently/adequately stacked up sats at earlier dates (and lower prices).

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

This is so dumb that I am not even going to talk about it.

 

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

Still presuming that bitcoin's fix supply - and shrinking supply is a problem.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior.

Not true.  You have bad maths... perhaps bad sciences, too?

BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

What an imagination you have (a good thing?)

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

Not as urgent of a problem as you are making it out to be.

Maybe you and Philip need to team up?  Remember that Philip thinks that the mining reward crises is coming within the next few decades, too... perhaps in the 2056 time frame.. so surely bitcoin is broken, right?

Whatever solutions I wrote in-I don't care about them, just a small suggestion, it could be something else, but the eventual "evaporation" problem is real and cannot be dismissed easily, and even mathematically as long as the loss is material and there is no add-ons after 2140.

Wow!!!!!

You are really going to town in terms of describing this matter as "urgent."  There must be some merit to your claims, no?  #askingforafriend

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % of the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?