Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

<reading tea leaves and goat entrails>

Not financial advice.

Captain Obvious says farmer bot you must be new here.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I don't have any problem with yor starting out by saying that maybe 20% of the Bitcoin have been lost or that maybe the loss rate is more than 1% per year, but even if we go by that math, losing 1% per year does not mean that the bitcoin supply is going to zero.

you must not know maths.

You can continue to lose 1% per year and the number will never go to zero.. it just gets smaller and smaller and smaller, but it does not go to zero... even if we were to assume 1.5% instead of 1% per year.

In other words, the whole world economy could run on 1 BTC. or 1 Satoshi. .. just divide the units in order to allow it to be more liquid (able to be spread out).. yes we might have to go to sub-satoshis, so what does that mean?  Sucks to be a hodler?  I think not.

Bitcoin is not broken due to its fixed and even shrinking supply... so there is no reason to fix it, and there would have been no reason for satoshi to put in such a dumb, illogical and inconsistent fix that started to issue more bitcoin supply, even though no coiners and low coiners frequently whine about such issues - partly based on their having had not sufficiently/adequately stacked up sats at earlier dates (and lower prices).

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

This is so dumb that I am not even going to talk about it.

 

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

Still presuming that bitcoin's fix supply - and shrinking supply is a problem.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior.

Not true.  You have bad maths... perhaps bad sciences, too?

BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

What an imagination you have (a good thing?)

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.

Not as urgent of a problem as you are making it out to be.

Maybe you and Philip need to team up?  Remember that Philip thinks that the mining reward crises is coming within the next few decades, too... perhaps in the 2056 time frame.. so surely bitcoin is broken, right?

Whatever solutions I wrote in-I don't care about them, just a small suggestion, it could be something else, but the eventual "evaporation" problem is real and cannot be dismissed easily, and even mathematically as long as the loss is material and there is no add-ons after 2140.

Wow!!!!!

You are really going to town in terms of describing this matter as "urgent."  There must be some merit to your claims, no?  #askingforafriend

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % of the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?

[Hueristic]

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee is trying really hard to get behind the secret of me lucky charms...

As to the question of did I make a higher trading profit than him:

Do you expect this here boi to beg?

After this week’s monster move upward I’m a bit surprised we’re still holding near $30K. Barely a pullback at all from traders cashing in gains. This shows that the coins being scooped up are being held, likely by big banks, and likely to put in their funds that they will offer to investors. This could potentially be the most bullish phase of crypto, but also likely the most dangerous.

Fuck crypto.

BTC in the near future 2 options. If it goes flat for several days, it can continue moving up to $34-35000. Then a drop to $23,000 and down.
With a higher probability, I now expect a gradual decline to $21-23,000.

Not financial advice.

Yes.. Not financial advice; however, are you prepared for either BTC price direction?  And are you prepared for $34k-$35k not being an actual top? 

How are you playing this whole matter?  For some reason, you sound a bit like a no coiner or a low coiner.

Do you have enough coin, or are you waiting for a BTC price dip in order to buy some?  Or are you just cheering for the BTC price to go down, because if you don't have any BTC plan, then you are likely NOT in very good shape when it comes to personal finances.

Since you are such a smartie panties, you do realize that the 200-week moving average is currently $26,548? 

Does the 200-week moving average play into how likely you consider certain BTC price dips to be in the coming weeks/months or otherwise? and the likelihood that there would be "gradual" downity that actually brings us back below the 200-week moving average, if such a thing were to happen.

I have my doubts about the soundness of logic for people who are considering current BTC prices to be toppy in any kind of significant/meaningful kind of way...except maybe if they are considering possible corrections back down to the 200-week moving average.. but still temporary corrections?  Longer term corrections?  We don't exactly seem to be in a consolidation location currently, especially since we have already been here for quite a long time..maybe even a few years if we want to consider the 2017 $19,666 top (but it does not really seem to be a good idea to be assessing bitcoin's price from the 2017 top, but instead to be looking at the last few years, at least since 2020.. even though some people believe that we need to look at 2019 in terms of a pattern of where we might be currently.. .. and it does seem to be problematic to get caught up too much on the patterns even though they can help to inform us regarding bitcoin dynamics and bitcoin seeming to be a quite larger (maybe even 10x, 20x or more large?) than it was in 2019.

[edited out]

Oh c'mon bro!... after 8 plus years of my silliness on this thread and you are still taking me seriously when I post crap like that? Its called satire

Oh?  Does anyone got time for that?  #askingforafriend

[edited out]

[edited out]

he's a  literal bot. 

That is be called:  NOT!!!!!

He just posted a long rebuttal of me accusing him of not being prepared for uppity.

Well?  Isn't it true that you are a troll?  You seem to have had admitted it, right there........pppphhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiillllllliiiiiiiipppppppmmmmmmmaaaaaaa11111199 99995555577777.

.....
he's a  literal bot. .....

We should now refer to him/her/they (yeah, pronouns are a bitch these daze) as ChatJJG  (almost rhymes with ChatGPT ...just sayin...)
GO BITCOIN

How about you refer to me as bubble boy?  Would that make uie-pooies ffffeeelwws  MOAR betters?

[cygan]

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % or the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

I thought that Hisslyness's post already pretty clearly pointed out the maths in terms of taking more than 1,200 years to get down to less than 1 BTC.. so the BTC does not disappear, even if you presume a constant loss rate of 1.36% per year (which is also not realistic)... and you seem crazy to suggest that all of a sudden bitcoin's supply would go to zero when we should be working with your presumption of a 1.36% loss rate.. which may or may not be realistic... which also was addressed by hissleyness's post.

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?

Maybe you are on some kind of a weird mental exercise that really is not seeming to be very well connected to real facts or even realistic speculations regarding what is happening and what might happen down the road, if things were to remain constant based on the current speculated BTC loss rate.

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Oh thank you so muchie.



I was starting to think that I was going to lose my day.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % or the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

I thought that Hisslyness's post already pretty clearly pointed out the maths in terms of taking more than 1,200 years to get down to less than 1 BTC.. so the BTC does not disappear, even if you presume a constant loss rate of 1.36% per year (which is also not realistic)... and you seem crazy to suggest that all of a sudden bitcoin's supply would go to zero when we should be working with your presumption of a 1.36% loss rate.. which may or may not be realistic... which also was addressed by hissleyness's post.

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?

Maybe you are on some kind of a weird mental exercise that really is not seeming to be very well connected to real facts or even realistic speculations regarding what is happening and what might happen down the road, if things were to remain constant based on the current speculated BTC loss rate.

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Oh thank you so muchie.



I was starting to think that I was going to lose my day.

 

@JJG...sooner or later...developers would have to address concerns like mine.
Some others state that the loss rate is maybe even 4% a year now, which is kind of high (https://blog.trezor.io/what-happens-to-lost-bitcoin-71eb5a80cc74).
I think that it is inevitable that some solution would be advanced (once we find out the actual rate of loss).
Could some solutions cause a fork? Hopefully not, but we shall see.

However I see most of bitcoiners solidly supporting the idea of no more than 21 mil btc, but maybe not the idea of a constant decrease in that number (or what is actually available).
To me, personally, the idea of supply shriveling to a few bitcoins and then dealing with fractions of satoshi to buy houses sounds positively Kafkaesque.
EDIT: btw, that hisslyness post you fondly refer to does not 'work' if we lose a set number of bitcoins per year (around 286K or 1.36% of the whole supply). He actually made a distinction between 75 years (in his calculation) counting as a fixed number lost/year OR 1231 years if a fixed % of current supply is lost for a year. I was talking about the former, but it flew over your head somehow. Sometimes you just need to read stuff more carefully.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Haha, I forgot about that. I don’t think he cares though after catching the Binance scam pump. Congrats on that by the way JJG.


Observing $30,068!
Back over $30,000 after J Powell said they will increase rates another 2 times this year (I dunno why that still causes a reaction in the market btw).

I’m looking for us to make a new yearly high before declaring the beginning of a new bull market. I think it stands at $30,800? I could be wrong!

Would be great to head into 2024 as we reach the halving at $40,000 to $45,000. Anything over $35,000 puts us in the driving seat for the bull run we were promised and robbed of in 2021 due to CHY-NAH banning bitcoin and COVID fall out. I really think $180,000 or more in 2025 is a lock in. Could go much higher with Blackrock and Fidelity plus others involved but $180,000 seems like a good target.

Look forward to the rocket gifs & memes

[Gachapin]

30k is nice

300k will be even better!

That will be a dream. BTC

That's not dream, 300k Hit Halving 2024.

50k end of June.

wanna bet ?   

[ivomm]

Turkish lira vs USD is down 81% since Jan 2019 and 5% since yesterday. Bitcoin solves this, unless you are mindrust 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Haha, I forgot about that. I don’t think he cares though after catching the Binance scam pump. Congrats on that by the way JJG.


Observing $30,068!
Back over $30,000 after J Powell said they will increase rates another 2 times this year (I dunno why that still causes a reaction in the market btw).

I’m looking for us to make a new yearly high before declaring the beginning of a new bull market. I think it stands at $30,800? I could be wrong!

Would be great to head into 2024 as we reach the halving at $40,000 to $45,000. Anything over $35,000 puts us in the driving seat for the bull run we were promised and robbed of in 2021 due to CHY-NAH banning bitcoin and COVID fall out. I really think $180,000 or more in 2025 is a lock in. Could go much higher with Blackrock and Fidelity plus others involved but $180,000 seems like a good target.

Look forward to the rocket gifs & memes

"250K median, with 180K-320K being the range for the next ATH"....a super-bot whispered in my ear.
True story.

[Biodom]

Turkish lira vs USD is down 81% since Jan 2019 and 5% since yesterday. Bitcoin solves this, unless you are mindrust 

Not sure why they are in such situation with EU being right there and positive demographics.
Could be temporary, i dunno. All "strategists" are saying that Turkey would be a significant "player" going forward.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[darkangel11]

Fuck crypto.

Love it!

[machasm]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

Yeah, it was great not sure why got cancelled.

Everything I like gets cancelled and pure unadulterated garbage gets put in its place.