Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cygan]

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[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % or the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

I thought that Hisslyness's post already pretty clearly pointed out the maths in terms of taking more than 1,200 years to get down to less than 1 BTC.. so the BTC does not disappear, even if you presume a constant loss rate of 1.36% per year (which is also not realistic)... and you seem crazy to suggest that all of a sudden bitcoin's supply would go to zero when we should be working with your presumption of a 1.36% loss rate.. which may or may not be realistic... which also was addressed by hissleyness's post.

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?

Maybe you are on some kind of a weird mental exercise that really is not seeming to be very well connected to real facts or even realistic speculations regarding what is happening and what might happen down the road, if things were to remain constant based on the current speculated BTC loss rate.

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Oh thank you so muchie.



I was starting to think that I was going to lose my day.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I thought that my original post clearly said that it is 1.36 % or the original supply of 21 mil, but let me reiterate the numbers;
Assuming 21 mil supply, apparently lost 4 mil in 14 years, therefore 4/21=0.19; 0.19/14=0.0136=1.36% (of 21 mil or 285714.286 btc/year).
If we currently have 17 mil maximum available supply (17=21-4), then 17000000/285714.286=59.5 years.
So...check your maths, buddy. You assumed % of the current when I talked about a linear loss of certain # of btc per year (which I indicated as % of the overall bitcoin issuance for simplicity).

I thought that Hisslyness's post already pretty clearly pointed out the maths in terms of taking more than 1,200 years to get down to less than 1 BTC.. so the BTC does not disappear, even if you presume a constant loss rate of 1.36% per year (which is also not realistic)... and you seem crazy to suggest that all of a sudden bitcoin's supply would go to zero when we should be working with your presumption of a 1.36% loss rate.. which may or may not be realistic... which also was addressed by hissleyness's post.

My point was that BIP-42 was already implemented in 2016, which is 249 years before an additional "cycle" would have begun.
Absolutely nothing is being said about much earlier (maybe in 60 years) possible event depicted above.
Sure, maybe the rate of the loss is lower (or higher?) now.
We just don't know. Maybe we should find out?

Maybe you are on some kind of a weird mental exercise that really is not seeming to be very well connected to real facts or even realistic speculations regarding what is happening and what might happen down the road, if things were to remain constant based on the current speculated BTC loss rate.

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Oh thank you so muchie.



I was starting to think that I was going to lose my day.

 

@JJG...sooner or later...developers would have to address concerns like mine.
Some others state that the loss rate is maybe even 4% a year now, which is kind of high (https://blog.trezor.io/what-happens-to-lost-bitcoin-71eb5a80cc74).
I think that it is inevitable that some solution would be advanced (once we find out the actual rate of loss).
Could some solutions cause a fork? Hopefully not, but we shall see.

However I see most of bitcoiners solidly supporting the idea of no more than 21 mil btc, but maybe not the idea of a constant decrease in that number (or what is actually available).
To me, personally, the idea of supply shriveling to a few bitcoins and then dealing with fractions of satoshi to buy houses sounds positively Kafkaesque.
EDIT: btw, that hisslyness post you fondly refer to does not 'work' if we lose a set number of bitcoins per year (around 286K or 1.36% of the whole supply). He actually made a distinction between 75 years (in his calculation) counting as a fixed number lost/year OR 1231 years if a fixed % of current supply is lost for a year. I was talking about the former, but it flew over your head somehow. Sometimes you just need to read stuff more carefully.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Haha, I forgot about that. I don’t think he cares though after catching the Binance scam pump. Congrats on that by the way JJG.


Observing $30,068!
Back over $30,000 after J Powell said they will increase rates another 2 times this year (I dunno why that still causes a reaction in the market btw).

I’m looking for us to make a new yearly high before declaring the beginning of a new bull market. I think it stands at $30,800? I could be wrong!

Would be great to head into 2024 as we reach the halving at $40,000 to $45,000. Anything over $35,000 puts us in the driving seat for the bull run we were promised and robbed of in 2021 due to CHY-NAH banning bitcoin and COVID fall out. I really think $180,000 or more in 2025 is a lock in. Could go much higher with Blackrock and Fidelity plus others involved but $180,000 seems like a good target.

Look forward to the rocket gifs & memes

[Gachapin]

30k is nice

300k will be even better!

That will be a dream. BTC

That's not dream, 300k Hit Halving 2024.

50k end of June.

wanna bet ?   

[ivomm]

Turkish lira vs USD is down 81% since Jan 2019 and 5% since yesterday. Bitcoin solves this, unless you are mindrust 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Checks what day it is...

FUCK YOU JJG!

Haha, I forgot about that. I don’t think he cares though after catching the Binance scam pump. Congrats on that by the way JJG.


Observing $30,068!
Back over $30,000 after J Powell said they will increase rates another 2 times this year (I dunno why that still causes a reaction in the market btw).

I’m looking for us to make a new yearly high before declaring the beginning of a new bull market. I think it stands at $30,800? I could be wrong!

Would be great to head into 2024 as we reach the halving at $40,000 to $45,000. Anything over $35,000 puts us in the driving seat for the bull run we were promised and robbed of in 2021 due to CHY-NAH banning bitcoin and COVID fall out. I really think $180,000 or more in 2025 is a lock in. Could go much higher with Blackrock and Fidelity plus others involved but $180,000 seems like a good target.

Look forward to the rocket gifs & memes

"250K median, with 180K-320K being the range for the next ATH"....a super-bot whispered in my ear.
True story.

[Biodom]

Turkish lira vs USD is down 81% since Jan 2019 and 5% since yesterday. Bitcoin solves this, unless you are mindrust 

Not sure why they are in such situation with EU being right there and positive demographics.
Could be temporary, i dunno. All "strategists" are saying that Turkey would be a significant "player" going forward.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[darkangel11]

Fuck crypto.

Love it!

[machasm]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

Yeah, it was great not sure why got cancelled.

Everything I like gets cancelled and pure unadulterated garbage gets put in its place.

[Gachapin]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

Yeah, it was great not sure why got cancelled.

Everything I like gets cancelled and pure unadulterated garbage gets put in its place.

gotta keep people occupied with stupid shit... deep thinking not wanted

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

Yeah, it was great not sure why got cancelled.

Everything I like gets cancelled and pure unadulterated garbage gets put in its place.

It's not cancelled, what you talking about? It was picked up by Netflix after Channel 4 ditched it in favour for all the crap they usually show years ago.

It's relatively successful from what I've seen so I'm sure they will continue with a season 7. They're just very slow in making it all the time as Charlie Brooker writes almost all the stories.

Season 6 is ok. Some of it is meh, some of it is pretty good. The photographer episode was far too short and jumped around too much at the start. I fail to see the reason for the 5 minute Czech Republic setting. The Loch Henry episode felt incomplete and not really Black Mirror material. Some strange choices at times.
The Demon '79 episode is my favourite (still a few things could have been better but almost really great). I'd like to see more of that type of stuff (a specific time setting - it had excellent music/song choices that helped to create the believable atmosphere).

It's definitely not as good as the likes of Twilight Zone used to be (the original series).

But definitely a better than average watch I would say.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!

Big fan. Have binged every season/episode since it started.
Great stuff.