Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

May be useful:

狗狗币 = gǒu gǒu bì = dog dog currency = dogs' coin = Dogecoin

 

[OldGeek]

aminorex, you have given this situation a lot of thought.  In your longer post just above, you said;

If it takes a long time for price decoupling to become obvious, and the exchange remains operational, sentiment may be very late indeed, and the reaction almost invisibly slow.

Would you care to speculate about the actions the arb folks might take if a slower decoupling does come about?

[JorgeStolfi]

This article in Chinese seems to have more details on PBoC's "clarification of the clarification", with comments by/about individual exchanges:

http://gd.sina.com.cn/zh/finance/2014-04-26/11502646.html

It is hard to figure out from Google Translate output, but I understood that
* BTC-China and OKCoin think that their "recharge code" system (where clients "purchase" yuan from other clients, paying them without the exchange's involvement) will not be affected;
* Huobi says that their card deposit system is still working.
* However Huobi's cards are "recharged" via AliPay(?)
* AliPay said that they will block any payment related to bitcoin (not just those that contain the word "bitcoin").

Beware that Google translates AliPay sometimes as PayPal, and Huobi.com as "fire currency network".

[rpietila]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

[JorgeStolfi]

In 18 hours or so it will be Monday morning in China.

Maybe nothing special will happen, an the price will "normally" drift from the current 460$.

Or the exchanges may confirm the bad news, and the price may crash.  The dip of Apr/11 shows that the ultimate Chinese Bottom (when the Chinese exchanges are bled to death) is below 340$.  It may not be reached before May/10.

Or the bad news may be dispelled, and the price will rebound.  The upper limit for the rebound should be the level before the Apr/25 crash, around 500$. 

[rpietila]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

What do you want?

[EuroTrash]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

What do you want?

You both sound bitter.  

The long winter is affecting the permabull inside everyone of us.

Edit: and I like to read you both, independently from my own position and beliefs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

[Cassius]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

[windjc]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[akujin]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Come on... start the bet already.. we need some amusement in here 
Let's see who's gonna take home the failure trophy 

[rpietila]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

[greenlion]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

It's a derivative. Even if you believe it's going to appreciate to that level, you still always bet on it depreciating as a form of insurance.

[JayJuanGee]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet?  That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed?  like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

[akujin]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

Just make the game simple.
If btc-e,stamp,huobi,okcoin drop $20 in 30days, winjc win. If it doesn't drop $20 in 30 days, rpietila win.
Start the battle now!