Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Yes, MRO and BCN are the most anonymous coins out there at the moment. I also think MRO may come to replace Bitcoin, or maybe Zerocash will do that.

Zerocash has serious problems so far.  By May, if it is not delayed again, it will be far behind MRO, and would have to have solved those problems and furthermore offered at least a 2x improvement in technology, in order to catch up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

So you seem to agree that Huobi is dying. What happens when it flat-lines? bang zoom to the moon immediately or a sharp dip before liftoff like with Silk Road and Gox? I think a sharp dip is probable. What's worse is that the longer it lives, the lower the price is likely to sink before that last. sharp. dip.

I expect it to die or at least become dormant, yes.  What I was trying to say is that it may go out almost invisibly.  The volume numbers are misleading.  They can effect subjective impressions, but not supply and demand.   I think price is low enough now so that demand is largely insensitive to price.  Even stronger:  Most of the non-churn demand is very inelastic.  But the fiat turnover will have to decline as the coins are drained by the arbitrageurs, and the impact of arbitrage on the free market will be limited to that quantity of supply.  I would expect it to decline very suddenly, and perhaps resume intermittently as the last few elastic coins get shaken out in spurts, then the supply impact would end completely.  Because this will be invisible to us, it will just be a slight supply cliff, mostly lost in the noise, visible primarily in price decoupling.  The sentiment reaction may be early or late.  If it takes a long time for price decoupling to become obvious, and the exchange remains operational, sentiment may be very late indeed, and the reaction almost invisibly slow.  

I've never really studied sentiment, although the guy who sits next to me in the city has built his career on leading edge automated sentiment analysis, so my only excuse is sheer overload -- anyhow, I'm not the one to estimate whether market sentiment will be early or late.  If its early, it could be seen in a more sudden price rise.  I'm not clear what is the case for another capitulative V-bottom.  I still think Gox fulfilled the capitulation role in this hype-cycle.  If Huobi, BTCChina, OkCoin were to off-shore, this might create a sharp sentiment break.

My book allows for a decline to the 200s still, in case I'm wrong.  But I think Risto would win the bet with windjc, if price were unmanipulated (meaning neither of them trades until it settles, not even by proxy or hedging).   I went north of 100% this week, and I continue to average in to higher leverage very gradually.  I'm also shaking trees, feeling between couch cushions, and rolling IWM short gains into BTC after every weekly option expiration.

[aminorex]

If by "force of arms" you mean "taxes" then yeah, sure, I guess. But if you literally mean someone assaulting you into giving up your bitcoins, the $5 wrench method is a hack that can be initiated by anybody and is proven effective at cracking passwords (and teeth) in one shot.

Anonymity is the best protection against the wrench, with bodyguards and security systems a close second, weapons and martial arts a distant third.
But I mean more than just taxes.  Inflation is just one way in which the regime can arrange confiscation.  Taxation another.  But necessity is looming, and necessity is the mother of invention.  Anonymity is a great aid.

[JorgeStolfi]

May be useful:

狗狗币 = gǒu gǒu bì = dog dog currency = dogs' coin = Dogecoin

 

[OldGeek]

aminorex, you have given this situation a lot of thought.  In your longer post just above, you said;

If it takes a long time for price decoupling to become obvious, and the exchange remains operational, sentiment may be very late indeed, and the reaction almost invisibly slow.

Would you care to speculate about the actions the arb folks might take if a slower decoupling does come about?

[JorgeStolfi]

This article in Chinese seems to have more details on PBoC's "clarification of the clarification", with comments by/about individual exchanges:

http://gd.sina.com.cn/zh/finance/2014-04-26/11502646.html

It is hard to figure out from Google Translate output, but I understood that
* BTC-China and OKCoin think that their "recharge code" system (where clients "purchase" yuan from other clients, paying them without the exchange's involvement) will not be affected;
* Huobi says that their card deposit system is still working.
* However Huobi's cards are "recharged" via AliPay(?)
* AliPay said that they will block any payment related to bitcoin (not just those that contain the word "bitcoin").

Beware that Google translates AliPay sometimes as PayPal, and Huobi.com as "fire currency network".

[rpietila]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

[JorgeStolfi]

In 18 hours or so it will be Monday morning in China.

Maybe nothing special will happen, an the price will "normally" drift from the current 460$.

Or the exchanges may confirm the bad news, and the price may crash.  The dip of Apr/11 shows that the ultimate Chinese Bottom (when the Chinese exchanges are bled to death) is below 340$.  It may not be reached before May/10.

Or the bad news may be dispelled, and the price will rebound.  The upper limit for the rebound should be the level before the Apr/25 crash, around 500$. 

[rpietila]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

What do you want?

[EuroTrash]

So, rpietelia is doing another one of his "well never see this level again" bets? Like the last one about $500?

What do you want?

You both sound bitter.  

The long winter is affecting the permabull inside everyone of us.

Edit: and I like to read you both, independently from my own position and beliefs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

[Cassius]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

[windjc]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[akujin]

Look. The bet is for 30 days.  Not 90. 90 is just a way for Rpietila to try to hedge his bet. The guy is deathly afraid of losing.  In 90 days we could retest 270 and be back above 500.

This guy has transmutated the bet from (high payout to me if $435 is nevereveragain seen) to a spread ($435 and $500 and mostly it'll be a tie anyway, with only 1:1 odds and a short expiration time).

90 days I will not do. There's no sport in a bet where there is 90%+ chance of a tie and 8% in losing.

Okay.

No one is going to manipulate the market. I am assuming a certain amount of honor here.

Here our definition of "honor" is different. Market is defined as an aggregate of the actions of participants. Since there is no way to find out who is doing what, but the aggregate result (price) is visible, the supposed oaths to not manipulate the market can only hurt the honest ones and should therefore not be demanded.

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Come on... start the bet already.. we need some amusement in here 
Let's see who's gonna take home the failure trophy