Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

[greenlion]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight 

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

It's a derivative. Even if you believe it's going to appreciate to that level, you still always bet on it depreciating as a form of insurance.

[JayJuanGee]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet?  That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed?  like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

[akujin]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

Just make the game simple.
If btc-e,stamp,huobi,okcoin drop $20 in 30days, winjc win. If it doesn't drop $20 in 30 days, rpietila win.
Start the battle now!  

[JayJuanGee]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.   

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

[chessnut]

I think extrapolation of the historical chart patterns is a stronger argument than extrapolation of risto's bets....

just launched my bet on bitbet.... $4000 before $400. should be approved tonight  

Bold. Size of bet?
You consider ~1000% appreciation more likely than ~15% depreciation?

just $20, for now. Ill add more when we pass $500 again.

..... I dont really consider it more likely, but I am counting on a lot of 'NO' bets. If I can get 2/1 odds i'd be happy, but I think Ill get much better odds with so many bears around

imo there is a fair chance that capitulation has happened. if so, we are likely not going below $400 again. in that case $4000 before $400 is a fun bet  

  

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet?  That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed?  like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

"Every bet has two sides. Every bettor on the winning side will receive as follows : 99% of his original bet sum (1% goes to BitBet.us) plus 99% of his bet times the total bet by the losing side multiplied by his bet's total weight and divided by the winning side total weight."

this is a fun way to bet. if you are the first to bet, your weight is 100%. you can wait to the last minute and bet on an almost certain outcome, but your weight will be much smaller - therefore your winnings possibly not worth the risk.

If you place a bet that is evenly sided, and likely to be popular, you can win simply by betting on both sides. It's an incentive to be gutsy, and to make good bets.

If I place a .05 BTC bet on 'yes', and 20 bears bet 2 BTC on 'NO' then I stand to win 2BTC. if the price begins to climb to 4000, some bulls will bet yes, but they will be entitled to proportionately less than I will be of the 2BTC. I will still have very good odds.

[rpietila]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.   

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

[lumierre]

Certainly rpietila does more reasonable analysis than most people here.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I have no idea what you are saying but it doesn't sound like you will take the bet. No big surprise there. And it was you that tried to transmute the bet from 30 days till 90.

Are you taking the bet? Yes or no are the only 2 possible answers. Pick one.

Go check from post history who proposed the bet (me) and then choose yourself (10:1 to me if goes to 435 in 90 days). It is entirely ok to not participate in discussion, but to insist that I take a bet that I did not propose is.. well.. fitting for you.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.   

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

Why make it so complicated?  If you do NOT like the $500 issue, then leave that out.. who cares about that.

The main question is whether or NOT you are willing to bet that BTC will NOT hit $435 in the next 30 days.  You can pick any amount that you want to bet.  Who fucking cares about odds.  You only going to take a bet if you get odds, then change the amount to $430 or something that you are willing to live with with 1:1 odds.  Maybe Windjc is willing to give odds, but the odds are NOT necessary, if you can agree to an amount and just keep it 1:1 - either BTC breaches that level in 30 days or it does NOT.

90 days is NOT needed - unless you are betting on something else, besides your original statement that BTC will never breach $435.  If you go with 90 days, then you just have more time to lose the bet.


Personally, I agree with you Rptiela about the bullishness of bitcoin, but I am NOT very confident to make any bet that BTC will NOT breach a certain amount.. Maybe I would bet that it will NOT breach $300, but personally, I am NOT even sure about that.... But, who cares about me?  I did NOT make the statement.  You, Rptiela, made the statement that BTC would NOT breach $435, and said that you would put some money on it.. .. so go ahead and do it.  Even though I do NOT agree with Windjc's conclusion about the direction of BTC prices, he seems reasonable in the framing of bets.  It may be the case that the two of you cannot see eye to eye on the terms of the bet, but the subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

[rpietila]

subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Now you are childish.

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.

50% is obviously not same as 90%.

I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.

So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.

[akujin]

I guess this would just end up like Pacquiao vs Mayweather  

[JayJuanGee]

subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Now you are childish.

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.

50% is obviously not same as 90%.

I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.

So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.

I don't see why you feel compelled to call me childish or to suggest that I do NOT understand your bet merely b/c you want odds on the results. I believe that falls in the adhominem attack category.

 Either BTC prices are going to breach $435 or they are NOT.  Are you going to bet or NOT?  Apparently NOT.  That does NOT make me childish b/c I did NOT make such a statement about willing to bet that BTC would Never breach $435.

In previous posts, I also suggested that you just crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you, b/c aren't we talking about the principle of the statement that you are predicting a certain result - the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game... Heck you could make it .1BTC.  Those are called gentlmen's bets, but apparently, it is beginning to seem to me that you just want to finagle out of the bet rather than following through with backing up your statement with some dinero.  If you do NOT feel so confident in your statement, then you should modify your statement or NOT suggest you are planning to take some amorphous complicated bet that NO one understands, except for yourself.  And that is NOT childish to NOT understand your statement that BTC would never breach $435, but you are NOT willing to commit to 30days to see what happens.


Edit: Actually, from what I have seen, you, Rpietila,  have NOT proposed specific odds.. like 60/40 or whatever for $435... b/c maybe in the end, Windjc would be willing to give you some odds.  A problem, however, comes, when you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.

[roslinpl]

Morning guys!

I do not see >$500, I do not understand why it is so .... but what can I say and what should I do instead of support and wait...


Train is on the way! ;]

[JayJuanGee]

I guess this would just end up like Pacquiao vs Mayweather  

That seems to be as good of an analogy as any.... b/c it seems that there are plenty of reasons to cause it to happen... but still it does NOT happen...

[tarmi]

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

Personally, I have NO problem with predictions being wrong.   Who cares?

I have a problem with someone saying that s/he will put money on his/her prediction, and then failing to commit to that course of action.  People are wrong all the time, and NO BIG deal, but if you say that you are going to put some money on your prediction, then make it happen.. to solidify the amount of money and the timeline and the triggering mechanisms for the payout(s).. or at least make a  good faith attempt at 1 BTC or something.. at least you put some money on it.. like you said you were willing to do....

If you do NOT follow through with your statement and your proposal to make a bet, then you are merely trolling this thread to make the other people in the thread to do all the work in formulating the hypothetical that you apparently had NO intention to follow through with.

[mmitech]

subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Now you are childish.

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.

50% is obviously not same as 90%.

I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.

So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.

I agree with you, the price is not going to "crash" to 400's level, however I can sense fear in your posts, I remember once you telling us that you don't do bets because it is illegal in your country and a past experience you had when someone reported you to authorities. but here you are now betting "again" I find it hard to believe or trust you anymore.

I can sense fear on this thread.....this will be my last post in this thread, I will still post in this forum occasionally if there is a need, but most likely not on the speculation forum....

good luck to all of you.

[solex]

I agree with you, the price is not going to "crash" to 400's level, however I can sense fear in your posts, I remember once you telling us that you don't do bets because it is illegal in your country and a past experience you had when someone reported you to authorities. but here you are now betting "again" I find it hard to believe or trust you anymore.

I can sense fear on this thread.....this will be my last post in this thread, I will still post in this forum occasionally if there is a need, but most likely not on the speculation forum....

good luck to all of you.

I don't care if the price crashes below $400. The problem is if it stays there. BTCE and Bitfinex have already flash-crashed to $100 this year. So spikes are always possible, it is the overall trend which is important.