Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

It has been my understanding that when a gay guy says something is gay then its friggin flamingly gay!

[nutildah]

We're going back to
80; I don't make the rules
"Sell the news" event.

[Biodom]

We're going back to
80; I don't make the rules
"Sell the news" event.

I dunno...currently, it is up on 1hr, 24hr and 7d charts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Thoughts on recent "crypto"/bitcoin development re: the US Gubmint:

You stupid bitcoinners.  Bitcoin is to take the power AWAY from governments not hand it to them!  Gah!
This is the mantra of Roger Ver acolytes, and Monero maxis.  And it is retarded.  "We should not be happy that bitcoin is being collected covertly or overtly by the powers that be!!!"  There is an old saying I think we are all familiar with.  "Bitcoin is for enemies".  If the collection of bitcoin by governments (and ETFs if that is even different) breaks it then it was doomed from day 1.

My god!  It's full of shitcoins!
Well this ended up much better than it could have.  Bitcoin is going to be the actual reserve asset while the USG keeps the right to stockpile shitcoins.  This gives a bone to the centralized donators like Garlicpants and hedges black swan crypto events as well as signals an agnostic to positive stance to the whole "space".

Waah! They are not buying anything just labeling what they already had!
I am guardedly positive here too...  They a phasing in the idea, and doing some toe dipping,  There are still MANY people who think bitcoin is a ponzi.   Probably even more than people who think alts are NOT a ponzi.  And the "doesn't cost the taxpayers" message is important right now in balance with the other things they are doing.  The buying is exciting if it ever happens.  BUT it pales in comparison to the un-erasable LEGITIMACY the USG just handed Bitcoin.  (and the cold shrug they did at alts)

You are not a real bitcoinner if you can accept they stole sweet innocent Ross' bitcoin!!!
Also you are not really a Scotsman!  This is typical black and white, bitcoin anarcho-capitalist, religious doctrine, Aspberger's gatekeeping.  Look.  I respect people who think Ross was a hero.  I personally think he was quite naive.  And I am delighted he is finally out of jail as that whole thing was WAY over the top.  And I have serious problems with civil asset forfeiture.  But this is another discussion.  And I love that we are a principled and idealist community.  But expecting the government to stop acting like gangsters EVER, much less overnight is REALLY REALLY idealism.  And frankly this is out of the scope of what's happening.  I personally would love world peace and the Kingdom of heaven realized on Earth...  but lets do some incremental improvements!

This is setting us up for another EO6102!
I wish I could flippantly deride this idea as well... but I cannot.  The incentives here suck.  "We don't want to spend our (i mean the taxpayer's) money on it so we will just start with coins we seized!  Wait a moment!  There's an idea!"  However... that sort of move is somewhat outside of the ideals (liberty based) I THINK this wacky administration really believes in.  Still,  I trust them as far as I could throw them, and the NEXT administration is a whole new game.  We need to remain vigilant and prepare for the worst.   At least somewhat.

The price is dropping!  This makes no sense!!!
first_time.gif??  I feel yah.  Sell the news.  This is complicated.  It has to be digested.  And the masses don't have a D- level understanding of bitcoin in the first place (including many old timers honestly).  So there is no chance most folks even know what any of this means.  From what I see even most of the choir is either excited for the wrong things, or frightened of the wrong things.  AND I think the market is frothy and exhausted from being yanked around by Trump and company's Big Beautiful Words... Bigger, many have said, than ever before, buhleeve me!

In conclusion I think this development is mostly a sleeper...  As the ideas are worked through I imagine there will be a surge in worldwide demand.

The government that serves the creators of the worlds reserve currency and unit of account just totally legitimized BTC as an asset of value worth collecting and hoarding at the highest levels.

CCMF.

[xhomerx10]

^Great analysis cAPSLOCK!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Arriemoller]

Hello, Ukraine is still winning, just wanted to make sure you don't forget

Bye.

No, Ukraine is not winning, it's not losing either. It has already LOST!

There are two possible scenarios: capitulation, loss of statehood and being annexed to Russia or peace talks and losing 25% of it's territory (maybe more) forever.  

So, in what parallel reality Ukraine is winning? of the deal, but what did Ukraine get?  They fucked around on behalf of NATO and found out.

You have just said a bitter truth. The war is a highly political motivated war that Ukrainian and American politicians are leveraging the opportunity for their business transaction at the detriment of the innocent citizens. I don't see any significant reason for Ukraine to embark war with Rusia because the root caused of this war does not worth the war, the economic lost and life of innocent citizens.
There is need for Rusia and Ukraine to consider a peaceful dialogue that end the war and peacefully coexist as neighbors.

Crawl back under your rock russian troll. You can not peacefully coexist with Russia as a neighbor. You can't even exist in the long run with Russia as a neighbor, they will eventually eat you.

This war is really simple, Russia invaded Ukraine. All Russia has to do to get peace is to go back to it's side of the border. That's it, it is really that simple.
And the fact that Trump isn't helping the world to push Russia back to its borders shows that Trump is in Putins pocket, I don't know what kompromat Putin has on Trump, but it has to be big.

[philipma1957]

Hello, Ukraine is still winning, just wanted to make sure you don't forget

Bye.

No, Ukraine is not winning, it's not losing either. It has already LOST!

There are two possible scenarios: capitulation, loss of statehood and being annexed to Russia or peace talks and losing 25% of it's territory (maybe more) forever.  

So, in what parallel reality Ukraine is winning? of the deal, but what did Ukraine get?  They fucked around on behalf of NATO and found out.

You have just said a bitter truth. The war is a highly political motivated war that Ukrainian and American politicians are leveraging the opportunity for their business transaction at the detriment of the innocent citizens. I don't see any significant reason for Ukraine to embark war with Rusia because the root caused of this war does not worth the war, the economic lost and life of innocent citizens.
There is need for Rusia and Ukraine to consider a peaceful dialogue that end the war and peacefully coexist as neighbors.

Crawl back under your rock russian troll. You can not peacefully coexist with Russia as a neighbor. You can't even exist in the long run with Russia as a neighbor, they will eventually eat you.

This war is really simple, Russia invaded Ukraine. All Russia has to do to get peace is to go back to it's side of the border. That's it, it is really that simple.
And the fact that Trump isn't helping the world to push Russia back to its borders shows that Trump is in Putins pocket, I don't know what kompromat Putin has on Trump, but it has to be big.

Russia can not be stopped from melting the icecaps.

I have zero idea how true that is.

But if that is true. Your nation Sweden 🇸🇪 along with Finland 🇫🇮 Norway 🇳🇴 Greenland 🇬🇱 Canada 🇨🇦 Alaska and of course Russia 🇷🇺

all will benefit from the melting.

Trump may believe this so if he does his actions are nasty but not crazy.

BTW China 🇨🇳 stands lose if the caps melt so for trump to favor Russia 🇷🇺 and attack China 🇨🇳 seems less crazy and more devious and clever.

BTW we will see how this all unfolds but it looks like the UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 may really need to step up to the plate.

[Arriemoller]

Hello, Ukraine is still winning, just wanted to make sure you don't forget

Bye.

No, Ukraine is not winning, it's not losing either. It has already LOST!

There are two possible scenarios: capitulation, loss of statehood and being annexed to Russia or peace talks and losing 25% of it's territory (maybe more) forever.  

So, in what parallel reality Ukraine is winning? of the deal, but what did Ukraine get?  They fucked around on behalf of NATO and found out.

You have just said a bitter truth. The war is a highly political motivated war that Ukrainian and American politicians are leveraging the opportunity for their business transaction at the detriment of the innocent citizens. I don't see any significant reason for Ukraine to embark war with Rusia because the root caused of this war does not worth the war, the economic lost and life of innocent citizens.
There is need for Rusia and Ukraine to consider a peaceful dialogue that end the war and peacefully coexist as neighbors.

Crawl back under your rock russian troll. You can not peacefully coexist with Russia as a neighbor. You can't even exist in the long run with Russia as a neighbor, they will eventually eat you.

This war is really simple, Russia invaded Ukraine. All Russia has to do to get peace is to go back to it's side of the border. That's it, it is really that simple.
And the fact that Trump isn't helping the world to push Russia back to its borders shows that Trump is in Putins pocket, I don't know what kompromat Putin has on Trump, but it has to be big.

Russia can not be stopped from melting the icecaps.

I have zero idea how true that is.

But if that is true. Your nation Sweden 🇸🇪 along with Finland 🇫🇮 Norway 🇳🇴 Greenland 🇬🇱 Canada 🇨🇦 Alaska and of course Russia 🇷🇺

all will benefit from the melting.

Trump may believe this so if he does his actions are nasty but not crazy.

BTW China 🇨🇳 stands lose if the caps melt so for trump to favor Russia 🇷🇺 and attack China 🇨🇳 seems less crazy and more devious and clever.

BTW we will see how this all unfolds but it looks like the UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 may really need to step up to the plate.

Have you been smoking that jazz tobacco?

[Arriemoller]

We're going back to
80; I don't make the rules
"Sell the news" event.

For fucks sake you guys
No haiku posting weekdays
Honor traditions

[sirazimuth]

... Yes. The USA citizen's elected that whiny douchebag.

The fact that USA citizens (ignorant phone swiping masses who live in their reality bubble) elected a "whiny douchebag" is the least of their problems.
Yes of course he absolutely is a whiny douchebag, but if that was all he was, who gives a shit?.
At the end of the day, everyone is a whiny douchebag, at some time or another, about things they don't like, me included.
Taking over Greenland, Panama, Canada nonsense. Renaming the Gulf of Mexico. Immigrants eating cats and dogs and committing all the crimes etc. All a load of bollocks distractions.
What the ignorant masses don't realize is what they have voted for.
I'm not gonna get into details because most normies  dgaf and don't have a clue.
Precisely what Orange Felon Dumpster and his butt buddy, FElon Muskrat and henchmen are counting on. Their Maga base are ignorant brainwashed minions.
Project 2025? What the fuck is that?  they say.
The first six weeks should give anyone with half a brain a clue.
Its called FAFO.  Fuck around and find out.
Its not a left wing, right wing, own the libs, fuck the rethugs thing. The billionaires are the new masters. And they don't give a shit what your ideology is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hycoCYenXls

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

And the fact that Trump isn't helping the world to push Russia back to its borders shows that Trump is in Putins pocket, I don't know what kompromat Putin has on Trump, but it has to be big.

My guess is that it's something LGBT and possibly dom/sub.

Donnie Boy couldn't handle that getting out. Talk about viral.

[Arriemoller]

And the fact that Trump isn't helping the world to push Russia back to its borders shows that Trump is in Putins pocket, I don't know what kompromat Putin has on Trump, but it has to be big.

My guess is that it's something LGBT and possibly dom/sub.

Donnie Boy couldn't handle that getting out. Talk about viral.

There are rumors about golden showers in Moscow, but what do I know, anyone can start a rumor.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

now, if the pattern continues as it should, we could see the 85 or 86 thousand dollar levels again.

i was correct again, only my predictions do not match the time of the day when i update.

the pattern i mentioned in my first post has formed and it looks close to the end.

Oh gawd.  

Another sorcerer wannabe.  That's all "we" need.

these are just the predictions of a novice bitcoin investor. i am not a sorcerer, i don't wannabe.

but things have been more consistent than I expected. a bit of bitcoin magic, a bit of blomen luck  

Fair enough.

I forgot to mention, she also said "It's not Sunday in any country!" but I told her you just have to let some things go or it will drive you to insanity.

Maybe d_eddie should get that memo, also.  He has never seen a day that is not worthy of a haiku or two... #justsaying

Poetic impetus strikes whenever the gods above send their love.
There, I said it - in prose, no less.

I suppose the true artist tends to go with the flow and will sometimes adapt to the environment..  I would hate to yuck your yum..  and  in that regard, I recall that I used to get ragged on by some members for certain of my seemingly stylistic (or artistic) writing patterns, and then after a while, I decided to alter certain aspects of those past patterns..  .. .. The haiku bug has not hit me, yet.

"We" wouldn't want that.

Bad.

Bitcoin did better when politicians did not care much about it one way or another: both fighting them and being 'embraced" by them ain't bitcoin's "motto", imho.
We are living a a strange, but interesting times, it seems.

I decided to completely ignore bitcoin's current monetary value in my net worth calculations...perhaps it is true that it could be almost any number.
Could it be 500K/btc in 2025...absolutely.
Could it be 50K in a week as well...same answer.

I don't think it is because of some "underlying" value as, surely, gold has no underlying value of $20 trillion, no way, shape or form.
It's just btc holders, at least in part, are over-leveraged weaklings who can't see forest for the trees.

I still think that BTC's 200-WMA is solid as fuck, in spite ongoing (and likely inevitable) attempts of various powers that be forces to manipulate BTC spot prices.

And if bitcoin remains amongst the best (if not the best?) of investments currently available (what else are you going to pick?), then how are you going to count it as zero in your portfolio, especially if you have been into bitcoin for the past 11-ish years?

Have you been reallocating all of this time and keeping your BTC holdings at some "reasonable" number, such as between 5% to 10%?  You claim to not have had been doing that. but who knows?

Many times through the years, you have been claiming to have had not been selling any of your bitcoin, so even if you started out with a relatively whimpy investment of ONLY 1% or 2% of BTC in your total investment portfolio, then after 11 years of mostly HODLing, there has to be some appreciation in comparison to the rest of your various investment holdings, perhaps the bitcoin could have had become way more than 50% of your total portfolio holdings, even if you were failing and/or refusing to put any more value into BTC as compared with other assets while you could have had potentially been watering your weeds rather than watering your plants... but BTC still would have had shown through all of that.

Let me use the 20 BTC example.  Let's say that in 2015-ish, you had an investment portfolio (of various non-BTC assets) of about $300k, and so at around that time, you decided to put around $6k into bitcoin in order to get your 20 BTC at around $300 per coin, which would have added up to have had been around 2% of your total investment portfolio.  Thereafter, in this hypothetical, in the past 10 years, you continued to invest in the various other non-bitcoin assets in your portfolio and varying in regards to your choices, but you largely just let your BTC allocation ride with the original 20 BTC that you purchased.  Perhaps if you managed the other assets in your portfolio well, and you got lucky, your investment portfolio may have now grown to around $1 million (so your various other assets did a 3.3x including your new ongoing contributions to them), and your 20 bitcoin (2% allocation in 2015), would currently have grown to have a 200 WMA value of nearly $900k and a spot price value of right around $1.7 million.   In other words, your initial 2% allocation to bitcoin would have likely grown to become 50% to 65% of the size of your total investment portfolio.

Even if we are going thorough some flat times in BTC prices right now (what else is new in bitcoin?), I have a hard time relating to your ideas of treating your BTC holdings as if those holdings were 0%, even if you had always had a whimpy perspective about BTC, since even if we take a fairly whimpy perspective and you were to have had ONLY 1) held your BTC, 2) failed/refused to buy more BTC, and 3) did not sell any of your BTC in the past 10-11 years, then there would still have been decently great odds that the BTC portion of your investment portfolio would have had out performed the other investments in your total investment portfolio, even if you had been continuing to invest into those other (less appreciating) investments and neglected dee cornz (the more appreciating asset) in the process.

Edited Biodom response portion about 9 hours after original post to better specify a few points

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com