Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[blatchcorn]

[Carra23]

I love Bitcoins Sell at 650, buy back at 550.

Now you can go up again, though I still have a little fiat left.

[HerrAndreas]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

now that is what sound advice looks like.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitrider]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

now that is what sound advice looks like.

+1 Can't be said often enough.

[faalhaas]

http://img.pandawhale.com/102027-reddit-gold-gif-its-happening-sGXD.gif

[justusranvier]

Objectively, what are our chances of going lower?  I can throw in some fiat and buy some coins, but this is probably the last time I will be buying for 6 months or a year.  Ignoring the trolls, is there a legitimate chance of hitting $500?

DO NOT take any advice from anybody here! Don't ever ask other people here what to do with your money! I know you see all these lines and charts and mainly bears who act like they know it all but i can guarantee you that not a single person here knows where Bitcoin will go. Every bear here will tell you we will see 100% sure 500 again. That's because they're sad little creatures who do nothing but lie and manipulate because they want the price to go down.
The bulls obviously want the price to go up but will be a bit more modest and say we'll likely won't see 500 again. Either way any info you'll get is coloured and worthless.
The fact that you want to invest in Bitcoin means you believe it will be worth more in the future. If you do then you should buy. 500 or 560 is meaningless in the long run if this thing takes off. If you don't think it will take off then don't. Waiting is kinda pointless because again nobody knows what it will do.

now that is what sound advice looks like.

+1 Can't be said often enough.

How to profit from Bitcoin:

1) Buy Bitcoins
2) Hold them for two years
3) Note how much you've gained in real terms over the last two years, and be honest about how much less you'd have had you daytraded
4) Keep hodling

[skaffen]

Bears please try harder. SecondMarket will bid the FBI coins: http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/14/bitcoin-trust-secondmarket-btc-trading-desk-bid-u-s-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

(That said, I must also say that I don't see that auction as responsible for the current drop.  I imagine that most traders knew it would happen, so they have it "priced in" already; and most traders should not see it as a big deal.)

I think most would disagree, it seems clear that the sale is responsible for the recent drop.  If you want to keep to the efficient market hypothesis, you could say that a large percentage of traders thought the SR sale wouldn't happen, due to the US not wanting to be seen to sell bitcoins (because it would supposedly give them legitimacy).

Now has the market priced in the sale of DPRs coins?  I think the timing will make a difference, because of the limited supply of bitcoin on the markets.  The price will drop if/when he is convicted.

[phosphorush]

Bears please try harder. SecondMarket will bid the FBI coins: http://newsbtc.com/2014/06/14/bitcoin-trust-secondmarket-btc-trading-desk-bid-u-s-marshals-bitcoin-auction/

(That said, I must also say that I don't see that auction as responsible for the current drop.  I imagine that most traders knew it would happen, so they have it "priced in" already; and most traders should not see it as a big deal.)

I think most would disagree, it seems clear that the sale is responsible for the recent drop.  If you want to keep to the efficient market hypothesis, you could say that a large percentage of traders thought the SR sale wouldn't happen, due to the US not wanting to be seen to sell bitcoins (because it would supposedely give them legitimacy).

Now has the market priced in the sale of DPRs coins?  I think the timing will make a difference, because of the limited supply of bitcoin on the markets.  The price will drop if/when he is convicted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum -> the number of people that believe X is irrelevant for the truth of X Maybe it's a self fullfilling speculation

[Erdogan]

Sunday night rallies are back! Must be the hordes of new users. Bullish!

[Parazyd]

Sunday night rallies are back! Must be the hordes of new users. Bullish!

We were bullish all the time. It's just the bears that spread FUD and try to make us sell
CCMF!!!!!111

[natewelt]

It's looking better. I think the support at 550 will hold

The exact same TA I was seeing.

Looks like we just had a breakout above the resistance trend line. Next area of resistance that will probably be heavy is around 610-615. Let's see if we can test that area here soon.

[ihaveaquestion]

Maybe some panic sellers because of Ghash.io reaching 51% of the hashrate are buying back now that it is down to 30%.
I was also wondering if SecondMarket was aware of the auction before the announcement. They constantly bought tons of coins for months, and suddenly nothing for a few weeks, neither buying nor selling. And obviously they will bid for the auction. Maybe they have just stopped buying on Bitstamp to make a huge bid on the auction. That would be super bullish. Besides whatever daytraders did, i believe the auction is super bullish because we will have another round of covering of Bitcoin by the mainstream media, not to include the possible panic buys if the coins are sold above market price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nottm28]

Back up to 650 now?

[Gianluca95]

Back up to 650 now?

Yes, bad news is passed To the end of June price will drop down another time 

[JorgeStolfi]

For whatever it is worth, here are plots of the Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio, that is, the effective CNY/USD exchange rate, since Jan/2014.
(Click on the image for a fullsize version).


Dot area: total Huobi trade volume in that UTC day.  The largest dot is 353 kBTC (on Feb/25).


Dot area: "slumber tranquility weight", 0.0 (smallest dots) to 1.0 (largest dots).

The prices used in the ratio are the arithmetic mean of the high and low trade prices in the 1 hour interval 19:00:00 to 19:59:59 UTC (which is 03:00 -- 03:59 AM of the next day in China).  

The "slumber tranquility weight" is a function of the trade volume observed in the 3-hour interval 18:00:00 to 20:59:59 UTC (02:00 to 04:59 AM in China), compared to the total volume in that same UTC day (from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 UTC, or 08:00 AM to 07:59 AM of the next day in China).  The higher the ratio of the two numbers (meaning, relatively more trading in the late night hours) the smaller the tranquility weight.

EDIT: clarifying, the "total daily volume" is at Huobi only, not the World's total.

[Erdogan]

For whatever it is worth, here are plots of the Huobi/Bitstamp price ratio, that is, the effective CNY/USD exchange rate, since Jan/2014.
(Click on the image for a fullsize version).


Dot area: total trade volume in that UTC day.  The largest dot is 353 kBTC (on Feb/25).


Dot area: "slumber tranquility weight", 0.0 (smallest dots) to 1.0 (largest dots).

The prices used in the ratio are the arithmetic mean of the high and low trade prices in the 1 hour interval 19:00:00 to 19:59:59 UTC (which is 03:00 -- 03:59 AM of the next day in China).  

The "slumber tranquility weight" is a function of the trade volume observed in the 3-hour interval 18:00:00 to 20:59:59 UTC (02:00 to 04:59 AM in China), compared to the total volume in that same UTC day (from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 UTC, or 08:00 AM to 07:59 AM of the next day in China).  The higher the ratio of the two numbers (meaning, relatively more trading in the late night hours) the smaller the tranquility weight.

This is great. Bitcoin used as a definitive measure of the exchange rates of fiat currencies. Somone should tell the fx fund managers.

[akujin]

Time to drop soon 

[natewelt]

Within the past few weeks Bitcoin has failed to decisively break above the 200 day moving average. This is one of the main reasons I believe it fell back below 550. However, the 50 day moving average has shown support over the past few days and looks to be the bottom. You can see the chart from this link shows the 200 DMA currently at 643 and 50 DMA 529.

Bottom line...if Bitcoin can break above the 200 DMA here soon I believe it will get above 700 shortly after.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitfinexUSD#rg360zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200