Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

This is probably very improbable though

lol, what? 

Dude seems to have a sophisticated model distinguishing alleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

[el_rlee]

Yes, Bitcoin. I guess $5xx is history now 

Don't jinx it!

There we are again

[spooderman]

seems a little quiet for a monday. Where is everyone? Why such low volume too?

I need waves god dammit!

[Richy_T]

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

If it was about the future of money, they would be holding, not selling.

The weak hands are typically both speculators and not convinced that Bitcoin will continue to see increased adoption and rising price. We need them to sell to go up since they are a negative feedback on rising prices. They will buy back in as we shoot to the moon and be the cause of the ensuing bubble burst and slow recovery again. These people are where successful traders profits come from.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

ITT some in here underestimate the (call it "psychological", if you want) effect a ~6 month bear market has on the following consolidation-slash-bull market, at least initially.

Remember how, after every ATH rally the bears need some time before they really get their way? It's the same now, only in reverse (and the amplitudes are slightly different due to the even larger trends governing the smaller segments).

[hyphymikey]

I see the fake sell walls are back

[JorgeStolfi]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

[podyx]

Reversed head and shoulder pattern has been mentioned a couple times on here

don't know what it means though

[kehtolo]

Reversed head and shoulder pattern has been mentioned a couple times on here

don't know what it means though

A great glossary for all of these terms can be found at investopedia

It really helped me out when i started reading here.. in fact if you highlight a term you read in here that you are unsure of, right click and search google, it usually comes up with investopedia first result.

[Torque]

ITT some in here underestimate the (call it "psychological", if you want) effect a ~6 month bear market has on the following consolidation-slash-bull market, at least initially.

Remember how, after every ATH rally the bears need some time before they really get their way? It's the same now, only in reverse (and the amplitudes are slightly different due to the even larger trends governing the smaller segments).

If you are referring to the psychological effect a prolonged bear market has on the populous, I agree with you.  By this point, all trust that these mini rallies are real (i.e., not manufactured by whale traders) have been beaten out of most all but the diehard bulls.  That's why recovery back into a true bull market takes so long.  Most average Joes are now believing that the whales are just buying and trying to lure the sheep back in, only to spread mass FUD and drop the price at a later point.  Again. Only to sell back to themselves once more.  No appearance of true increasing adoption appears real to anyone right now.

[oda.krell]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

I'd never call TA 'rules', but let's say the question is: do all methods apply equally to rising prices as they do to falling.

No, though some do.

Example of those that do apply symmetrically: moving resistances (say, based on a moving average) are considered support once they are broken convincingly.

Example of those that don't: Most indicators meant to signal a reversal of some trend inside larger market trend don't.  Say for example the larger market trend is a bear market, like the one we've seen since December (and that we seem to have left last month). Say further that you are planning to trade smaller "swings" inside this larger context. If you would trade purely reactive, based on momentum signals like moving averages crossovers, you would probably demand a lot more evidence that the price about to go up than that it is about to go down. In other words, you'd look at a more sensitive indicator to tell you when to sell, and a more lagging one to tell you to get back in.

EDIT: if you mainly have candle patterns in mind, then I think most of those apply symmetrically (e.g. hammer vs. inverted hammer). But perhaps someone who's more knowledgeable about those can comment on that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BBmodBB]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

TA is not binary, also charting should always be reenforced by other real-time data : level 2 quotes etc...! ;-)

[rebuilder]

A curiosity question for those who believe in TA (which I still don't, sorry): are its rules symmetrical with respect to up and down? Namely, if a certain pattern is supposed to impliy This and That, is the same pattern, but upside down, supposed to imply the opposite of This and That?

(I am asking because I recently edited the Wikipedia article on 'cup and handle' (wait, no need to panic yet  !), and it only discusses the 'upside-up' version, no mention of an 'upside-down' one.  But wasn't a reversed cup and handle mentioned in this thread, some time ago? Or maybe it was some other upside-down pattern?)

I'd never call TA 'rules', but let's say the question is: do all methods apply equally to rising prices as they do to falling.

No, though some do.

Example of those that do apply symmetrically: moving resistances (say, based on a moving average) are considered support once they are broken convincingly.

Example of those that don't: Most indicators meant to signal a reversal of some trend inside larger market trend don't.  Say for example the larger market trend is a bear market, like the one we've seen since December (and that we seem to have left last month). Say further that you are planning to trade smaller "swings" inside this larger context. If you would trade purely reactive, based on momentum signals like moving averages crossovers, you would probably demand a lot more evidence that the price about to go up than that it is about to go down. In other words, you'd look at a more sensitive indicator to tell you when to sell, and a more lagging one to tell you to get back in.

EDIT: if you mainly have candle patterns in mind, then I think most of those apply symmetrically (e.g. hammer vs. inverted hammer). But perhaps someone who's more knowledgeable about those can comment on that.

Oda.krell, you seem like someone who might know - how much rigorous statistical evidence is there for different TA methods? Do you think the idea TA can provide an edge can be realistically tested?

[bigdave]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

[bananaControl]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is? Never heard of him in all my years of bitcoin time.

[bigdave]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

[gentlemand]

I love Tony. I don't know who he is either.

[bananaControl]

Since the news about Tony Gwynn passing away is now breaking I'm expecting a price drop.

Are we supposed to know who that is?

I'm guessing you don't live in the US.

So I take it that he has absolutely nothing to do with anything bitcoin related? So why should that have any more effect on the price than lets say the death of king Carl Gustaf ?