Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

If we break down again, it is just because the manipulators, wall street, whales, etc havent loaded up enough before starting the next rally. Silly monkeys need to be squeezed more.

its just a good place to take profits... i did...

[hdbuck]

If we break down again, it is just because the manipulators, wall street, whales, etc havent loaded up enough before starting the next rally. Silly monkeys need to be squeezed more.

its just a good place to take profits... i did...

oh im sure you did ^^

[Sandia]

Anybody have some gasoline?  The fire is getting a little low.

[adamstgBit]

china still looks like its on the verge of breaking that 3700 mark

stamps should bounce here, and china will break up, and the rally will continue.

[fonzie]

Just in case anyone wants to know what's coming next in the market, here you go:

We just hit a short term top. Over the next week to month we are going to steadily fall.

The market will fall to somewhere between 520 and 565.  This will be the make of break level. If we fall below 520 we are going to remain in what most would consider a prolonged bear market. If we bounce up off the 520-560 low, then we have a shot at continuing to build a base upward towards a new rally sooner.

This next leg down - the one that's already started from 607 - this is the make or break leg.

Could it be that you are (partly) responsible for the 1000BTC increase on Finex shorts today? 

[Sandia]

Thanks, guys.  400 btc slammed into BFX support at 695.
That should keep the fire going for a while.

Sorry, shorts.


How many coins would we need to buy to cause a short squeeze?  850 on one exchange, IMHO, since the other exchange would jump on their own once they are $7 behind.

[JayJuanGee]

better buy them 200 millions worth of coins NOW. should result in more coins. maybe they have bought already?

Also, the $200MM figure is what the GABI administrators "estimate" as the initial interest..  so this isn't set in stone, and they are probably exagerating some.. but assuming they are close, that means they will be buying $200MM in the next 30 days...

Where the hell would they get for $200MM btc??? That is 200 000 btc at the price of 1000$! Are they planning to get old Satoshi's coins?  

Chill out... they will not buy all in the next 30 days... more like till the end of the year. But they sure will push the price to the sky!  

Can someone actually show me a source that confirms they will be buying all these coins.
I mean it sounds great but everybody says something different.

Various articles about here be one

http://moneymorning.com/2014/07/24/bitcoin-hedge-funds-multiply-as-big-money-sees-opportunity/

Thanks. I'll check it out.

and another   http://www.newsweek.com/ex-jp-morgan-trader-joins-bitcoin-bulls-launching-hedge-funds-258494 (http://www.newsweek.com/ex-jp-morgan-trader-joins-bitcoin-bulls-launching-hedge-funds-258494)

Also a little about Masters :

Daniel Masters
Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager
Director of Trading & Execution
Daniel Masters started out in 1985 at Royal Dutch/Shell, where he was responsible for managing a portfolio of North Sea Crude. Moving to The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. in 1987, he pioneered the firm’s entrance into the electricity markets. He structured groundbreaking natural gas deals and was an original participant in the “Contract for Difference” (CFD) market for physical oil in Europe. J.P. Morgan hired him in 1993 to add trading expertise to its array of financial capabilities. Based on Danny’s success in establishing a proprietary trading program, Morgan promoted him to head its global energy trading business in 1997.

This is Blythe Masters ex husband BTW!!  ha!  FUBM !!

I read the linked articles, and it seems very promising for the price of BTC to be acquiring $200 million or more in BTC....   We cannot be sure, yet, the extent to which some of the exchanges will be allow or will in practice engage in fractional reserve banking.... In other words, will they really need to accumulate $200 million in BTC in order to trade $200 million in BTC... ?

[JorgeStolfi]

I'd like to see a marked increase in the daily number of transactions to confirm a new bull phase.  According to the Metcalfe model (using TXs per day), the value is still approximately $400.

This graphs tucks the last 8 months in a tiny corner, with the previous 4.5 years taking almost all the space.  If that tiny corner were magnified, the match would not be as impressive, I am afraid.

The "TX per day" parameter does not follow the price since late May, and both it and the "new addresses per day" deviate a lot from price from December to February.  I don't know how these discrepancies could be explained, but they cast doubt on the model.

As I noted before, transactions and addresses are still free, therefore those blockchain statistics could be mainly due to "fake" transactions -- coins moving between address belonging to the same person.   Note that the daily number of transactions has been nearly constant since February, and the estimated BTC volume is quite constant since  January -- with no echo of the huge fluctuations in price in that interval.  I take these facts as evidebce that only a small part of those transactions represents transfer of bitcoins between different owners.  Note also that a single user could generate all the present volume (100,000 BTC/day) by  moving 700 BTC divided among 400 addresses of  his own to 400 new addresses, every 10 minutes or so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

My coins are going to be my retirement. So, im more worried about the price 15-20 years down the road. The one thing bitcoin has done and always do is go down and up, rinse repeat.. I have total confidence that we will be well above the 5k mark in 10 years, probably sooner..

With those kinds of projections, you must have at least a couple hundred coins - or a plan to acquire at least a couple hundred coins.

You think if BTC goes mainstream... and is still here in 15-20 years, that this chap will need hundreds to retire at that point?   really?  you cannot think they are going to go very high then.  

I was just using his price projection of BTC.  He suggested that in 10 years, BTC will be well above the $5k mark, but he did NOT specify how much.

In that regard, he may need 200 coins at $5k to be valued at $1million.  That would NOT necessarily be a lucrative retirement, but could be manageable.

In essence, I am NOT really sure about what Bigasic was suggesting, so I was trying to get him to elaborate somewhat.

I was suggesting that i try not to worry about all these dips. My main concern is what Btc will be in the future, Even though I have sold many coins before it started to skyrocket, I still was able to hold to a "few" and still obtain them here and there. I feel that if Btc gets to 5k id probably sell most and invest the fiat into traditional investments. So, if it does get to 5k, I should be set for life..

Thanks to bitcoin, Im almost totally out of debt. (sold a chunk when it was just under 1k, I missed the 1200 boat) paid cash for a brand new car (which was totally surreal)Not trying to brag, just stating that even if bitcoin were to tank or go away, I still would look back and think that it was one of the best investments I ever made.

I realize that I may have been changing the topic somewhat from the point of your original post to inquire about your retirement plans... rather than focusing on your point about NOT day trading too much.


I have NO problem with profiting off of the returns, selling on the highs and buying on the dips or even engaging in some consumerism. 

So, in that regard, it is good for you to have enjoyed some profits from BTC.  NONETHELESS, even if BTC goes to $5k, it may NOT be prudent to cash out all coins at that point.... .depending upon how quickly BTC gets to that price point and what seems to be the driving force... b/c if you take all of you investment out of BTC, then you will have to figure out a good vehicle to place it, and fiat may NOT be the answer.. but there may be some practical answers, which includes fiat related investments or even traditional investments, such as guaranteed income annuities.   

Also, there is NOTHING wrong with taking out some profits and diversifying one's investment(s) in order that NOT all of your retirement funds are in one basket.

I still surmise that if you believe that $5k per BTC is a decent amount for retirement, then you are expecting to hold more than 200 BTC at the time that bitcoin reaches $5k.... It would be nice to hear more specifically from you about these kinds of specifics (or at least in round about ways), however, if you had another retirement amount in mind, then i would like to hear about that, too...

[JayJuanGee]

Just in case anyone wants to know what's coming next in the market, here you go:

We just hit a short term top. Over the next week to month we are going to steadily fall.

The market will fall to somewhere between 520 and 565.  This will be the make of break level. If we fall below 520 we are going to remain in what most would consider a prolonged bear market. If we bounce up off the 520-560 low, then we have a shot at continuing to build a base upward towards a new rally sooner.

This next leg down - the one that's already started from 607 - this is the make or break leg.

Interesting.  I should have hung onto a little more of my fiat... just in case you are correct...   I'm NOT selling though... b/c I do NOT have that level of confidence in these bear-like predictions...  and I would NOT want to be left by making such as sale based on such a representation...

[JayJuanGee]

Lol I wonder who these 8 people that claim to have more than > 10000 are. I hope to have at least 10 in the next 10 years, and for the 99% of us that missed the boat to get legitimate gains Bitcoin needs to go really high. 10K is the bare minimum. I wonder if we will see it in the next 10 years.

You invest what you can... and you did NOT miss the boat, so long as you know about BTC (which you do) and you are doing something about it (which it sounds as if you are).  There are a lot more people out there who either have NOT heard about BTC or have NOT done anything about it or taken any action towards accumulating BTC.

Right. You never know, the guy with a BTC10,000 wallet might sell most of it during the next bubble (I should say "accumulation cycle") thinking it won't go any higher. You just don't know. Lots of people had more bitcoins than that a few years ago and sold them at $5 or $10. That's how distribution works. Don't worry about what others are doing--worry about your own plan.

YES... exactly.... +1..... Do the best that you can with your circumstances and with your knowledge and probability projections about the future.  Accordingly, you should attempt to be sufficiently diversified in case your probability projections are NOT exactly on ... which NO one can really predict the future... but you can make plans and you can attempt to make corrective maneuvers if you see that probability projections are changing.

[JayJuanGee]

If BTC price heads south from 500, it means that the adoption has turned negative.

So not only all the initiatives that have been built this year with the funds generated by 2013 rallies, and the VC money, and the Wall Street initiatives, will turn out to be worth nothing, but also the internal growth in userbase that has averaged 0.6% per day since the start of 2010, will not only revert to zero, but also turn negative, with people who have used Bitcoin, ceasing the use and turning back to PayPal, en masse.

Sure. Believing in unicorns never made me rich in the first place.

Are you turning bearish??

I think that he is trying to suggest that the forces are considerably against BTC going below $500... Correct me if I am wrong... 

[JayJuanGee]

Just in case anyone wants to know what's coming next in the market, here you go:

We just hit a short term top. Over the next week to month we are going to steadily fall.

The market will fall to somewhere between 520 and 565.  This will be the make of break level. If we fall below 520 we are going to remain in what most would consider a prolonged bear market. If we bounce up off the 520-560 low, then we have a shot at continuing to build a base upward towards a new rally sooner.

This next leg down - the one that's already started from 607 - this is the make or break leg.

Could it be that you are (partly) responsible for the 1000BTC increase on Finex shorts today? 

YEAH... Windjc seems to be talking his book   

[hyphymikey]

Someone woke up and was like "oh crap! I wanted to sell my coins under 600 a piece. Now is my last chance!"

[Wandererfromthenorth]

The huge buy wall on huobi is real, it has been there for hours, the bears don't have the balls to exit in that wall.

[hdbuck]

Who said going to the moon was easy? we need to get rid of gravity before reaching weightlessness..



Stack on fuel dear bitcoin rocket, the more we wait, the more far we'll go!  

[Wandererfromthenorth]

comon bull whale you can squeeze all of them pretty easily, do it!! lol

[JorgeStolfi]

Another worrisome aspect of the blockchain statistics is that the "effective fee" for bitcoin payments is about 4% -- since the mining community earns 4000 BTC/day to process transactions whose estimated output volume (minus changeback) is 100'000 BTC/day.  Since mining is still a substantially free market, the actual cost must be not much below that value. 

Currently users do not pay that 4% fee, because it is paid by all the long-term holders of bitcoins, that lose 4000*365/12'000'000 = 12%/year of their value because of mining inflation.  (And, of course, that loss is more than offset by the price increase due to speculative demand.)  But since that fee will some day become a real transaction fee paid by users, it seems to be a bit too high for a service that is still often touted as "free" or "much cheaper than bank transfers".

But it gets worse if that 100'000 BTC/day blockchain traffic volume is indeed partly "fake" (transactions with no change in ownership).  In the final future when the mining costs will be paid by the users, the fake transactions will disappear and the cost will be borne by the real ones only.  But if 30% (say) of the volume now is fake, the "effective fee" now is not 4% but 4000/(0.70 x 100'000) = 5.7%.  If 50% of the volume is fake, the fee is 8%, and if 90% is fake, it is 40%.  So what is the "effective fee" now, and what will it be in that final future?

Putting on my triple-layer aerodynamic tinfoil hat, I would suspect that the blockchain traffic is being inflated with fake volume by The Powers That Wanna Be, in order to keep that calculation at 4% -- and thus preserve the illusion that bitcon can be a competitive payment method in that distant future.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

amazing gif