Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[blatchcorn]

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

What is confusing about Bitcoin is that good news has no effect on price, but bad news sends the price down 

In my view, that's because because of sentiment and technical analysis. Unless we're in a parabolic chasing new alltime highs (which is most of the time), positive news usually have little effect, simply because we're usually neutral or bearish then.

Here's one way to think of sentiment: When the pool of bullish people has been exhausted and noone has money left to buy, then we have a whole bunch of cheerleaders screaming moon train while building up insane expectations that inevitably, in most cases become disappointed simply by the price not moving for too long, or even moving counter their expectation. This creates disappointment, and now you can imagine what happens progressively as people start realizing their profits as the cognitive dissonance becomes too much to bear. Eventually, irrationality to the upside is followed by irrationality to the downside because so much disillusionment has been bred. To move up now, we need a good deal of this irrationality to the downside, or we need new bulls with new money because right now, we're trading pretty much the same USD back and forth.

tl;dr When shit isn't going parabolic, noone really cares too much. That's just how we humans are with regard to super volatile risk assets like Bitcoin.

Good explanation.

I was always thinking that the price would fall if the July rally never happened.  Lots of people trying to hold when they need funds, just in case it did happen.  And now it hasn't there is less pressure to hold.

[cbeast]

On the log chart we are overdue for a breakout. The whales have their dark-pools lined up. The markets are on a hair-trigger of low volume.

[mooncake]

If this does not move the price, I do not know what will.  
George Osborne hopes to turn Britain into bitcoin capital

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gentlemand]

If this does not move the price, I do not know what will.  
George Osborne hopes to turn Britain into bitcoin capital

I wonder whether that pic is making Satoshi froth in his/her/its/their bunker.

[paul2000]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

[cbeast]

If this does not move the price, I do not know what will.  
George Osborne hopes to turn Britain into bitcoin capital

I wonder whether that pic is making Satoshi froth in his/her/its/their bunker.

For reference: the Bitcoin Genesis Block contains "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".

[Valerian77]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

[empowering]

The correlation lately of the bitcoin market with the U.S. stock market has been a little concerning.

I think Bitcoin is a risk asset and losely correlated with the broader economy, same as gold. (credit goes to waveaddict btw). That is, I believe if the stock market goes into the toilet, Bitcoin would have a much harder time than it has so far. It's probably something that you put money in when you have an excess, and pull money out when you lack it.

good news = price drop #logic

What good news? Why do you people (not you in particular) all think you are so clever that even if "fresh" news played a large role, even assuming that there are no insider front runners, who are you to say what is important and what is not, or even whether a piece is overwhelmingly good or bad? How do you tell if something has been priced in, and how long does that take? Do you have a framework to put everything in relation? News is even more subjective than technical analysis, and as far as I can tell it's one of the worst ways to trade.

Can we have NO MORE SPECULATION ON THIS THREAD PLEASE!!   is that what you mean?

Just checking.

Why, not at all. I much prefer it to low value content like pictures of whatever. I don't want to stifle anything. I'm just voicing my thoughts that maybe things are much more complicated with news than commonly thought. Maybe there is logic in what is happening.

Thats grand then... everybody continue to speculate...  

I have wondered how a crash in the stock/bond market/market crisis would affect Bitcoin, if an event of some sort was to spread fear through the markets causing flight to quality.. how would Bitcoin be impacted?  historically at such time  Gold, USTB's and the Swissy and the Yen among others have been used as safe ports in a storm however in light of various happenings I cannot help but wonder in the next capital flight event caused by an event in the markets, if some of those traditional safe havens are no longer perceived as safe as before... (indeed the USTBs may already not have been perceived as such in 2008 either, and perhaps J.P Morgan accounted for much of the buying at that time)
 Anyway in light of goings on I cannot help but wonder when the next event occurs in the markets, if this time around capital flight may not favour USTBs and possibly not the Yen nor the Swissy either,  however Gold may fit the bill more so than recent past events. However two of the criteria that (depending on the crisis) make for suitable safe havens in such events are liquidity and stability...  which arguably Gold could fit the bill, however at this point in its life cycle I do not see BTC fitting into the bill as stable enough or providing enough liquidity as it is at the moment for it to be perceived as a safe haven, so I am not sure money that NEEDS to be safe would head for BTC atm on a global scale.  However, I do wonder how many people are over extended,  and or would particularly move their funds out of BTC if there was such an event, i.e  I am not sure how much capital flight from BTC would occur in such an event,  and if  some market participants did start to flee, would the demand be met by the BTC collective on the hunt for cheap coins?  How many BTC holders are going to be in the group of having to close BTC positions in order to cover a looming margin call on other pairs they are trading I wonder? and how many are going to be already diversified into areas they are happy are safe havens (Gold,Bonds etc)?  


In terms of news ,  I think it is quite simple,  good news upon good news, and actually even bad news, so much goes on in BTC nowadays  it is hard to peg any individual item as the cause for anything…  however the pressure from the news, and its effects do have ramifications as they build up.. ie after a year of good news for example, this will affect the market but perhaps later down the line… because much of the news is “infrastructure/ecosystem is being invested in developed and built” from which we have to wait until said infrastructure has been put in place and developed before the market reaps the benefits from said developments… or the news is essentially to do with legal developments , which likewise slowly but surely are inching forward.. and ditto for adoption both merchant and individuals, the more companies the more exposure the closer to ubiquity BTC becomes… Rome was not built in a day, and I think that the market is starting to mature somewhat and become less reactionary to news, however this is a case of “ if you build it they will come” and all of these developments in my opinion will continue to build pressure until the next meaningful waves of developments are in place and that drives the next meaningful wave of adoption, and the price will have little choice but to break upwards… we are in the process of building that next wave now, and have been for the past half a year or so (seeds were of course being sown way before that)  

The seeds have been sown… soon the rewards will be reaped.

p.s sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words...

[empowering]

If this does not move the price, I do not know what will.  
George Osborne hopes to turn Britain into bitcoin capital

: )

[Miz4r]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

Exactly, posts like that make me want to sell my coins actually and say fuck you to those who think they are entitled to profit from their coins and then buy all kinds of luxury stuff they don't really need with it.

[empowering]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

Exactly, posts like that make me want to sell my coins actually and say fuck you to those who think they are entitled to profit from their coins and then buy all kinds of luxury stuff they don't really need with it.

Why do you buy and hold coins may I ask? (not defending the OP who I do not think was serious anyway...but just asking)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

The don't dig gold, sell them spades, strategy.

No, this time is different.

[empowering]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

The don't dig gold, sell them spades, strategy.

No, this time is different.

There is room for both... I am sure many a man made a fortune from both shovels and gold... a few smart ones made money from the shovels, the gold, and the railroad (and brothels and bars)

[ensurance982]

Incredible choo choo incoming! Buy now or regret it later! (nah, honestly I believe this is just another minor upswing for now...)

[ensurance982]

No way we're going to get through that 422 BTC wall on Stamp. Well, so much for this rallye then...

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi now 6 $ higher than stamp, if you can trust the yuan/dollar conversion used on bitcoinwisdom.

Bitcoinwisdom says they get the conversion rate from some public source every day.  But arbitragers have their own rate, which presumably depends on withdrawal fees etc.

You'd think 1.3% difference would be enough to entice arbitragers

I don't know.  But if it costs that much more to take money out of Huobi/OKCoin than to take money out of Bitstamp...

Also Bitstamp charges trading fees, say X%, so I would expect it to lag behind the Chinese exchanges.  If these start going up, Bitstamp should follow only after the price in China is X% higher the upper end of Bitstamp's spread (now 581).  When they go down, Bitstamp should stay put until the price in China is X% lower than the lower end of Bitstamp's spread (now 579).  Or something of the sort.  Makes sense?

[Sandia]

We need a higher market cap, and a smoother distribution of coins.  This silly crap with 1 or 2 people controlling the market has to end.  Everyone has already forgotten the guy who walked the market down from 685, 5 dollars at a time, with his sell walls.  Everyone has forgotten that one short knocked us out of the 620 range, eventually to where we are now.

Currently, one entity is holding the price at Huobi and buying up thousands of coins.  Good or bad for the short term price, one person should not be able to control the entire market.  A higher market cap ensures that most large holders sell the majority of their coins, hopefully to smaller buyers.

[Miz4r]

I need to buy me a car and a new PC

price better fucking go up soon

Same here

Instead of betting on ponzi scheme development of Bitcoin you should start some business accepting Bitcoin.

Exactly, posts like that make me want to sell my coins actually and say fuck you to those who think they are entitled to profit from their coins and then buy all kinds of luxury stuff they don't really need with it.

Why do you buy and hold coins may I ask? (not defending the OP who I do not think was serious anyway...but just asking)

Because I believe Bitcoin is the most democratic form of money there is and can give people more control over their financial lives. Our current fiat system is oppressive and eventually self-destructive so by buying and holding coins I support an in my eyes better system and at the same time I feel good keeping a portion of my wealth outside of the current system. If I would buy and hold coins just to make personal fiat profits and then buy expensive stuff with those profits then that would make me just as much a part of the current crazy financial system that's addicted to growth and drives people to consume more and more until they burst. I live a modest and simple life and I don't need much, my health and relationships with people I love are what matter most.