Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

[Walsoraj]

would be interesting see his technical opinions about the bitcoin protocol

We went through this, perhaps 4000 pages ago...

I have no technical criticisms about the protocol.  I am satisfied that it works as it was claimed to do.  There may be some efficiency problems, but I am willing to assume that they can be solved in due time.

My skepticism about its longterm success is due to economical, political, social and practical issues.  Many of the predictions that bitcoiners take for granted seem highly improbable to me.  They minimize, or ignore altogether, many problems (such as the risk of theft) that I believe are quite serious. And so on.

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course. But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

[adamstgBit]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

[Walsoraj]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

Yes. Please send more fiat to your favorite exchange.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mooncake]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

You may have sent, but has he received?

[shmadz]

Just for curiosity, if some day you use bitcoin to buy a car, how will you make sure that the address that you are sending the bitcoins to is indeed the car dealer's?  What will you do if the car dealer tells you that they did not receive any bitcoins, and that their payment address is not the one you used?

Jorge Lolfi ladies and gentlemen, he'll be here all week.

[shmadz]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

Haha, trick question, bitcoins don't travel 

[Wary]

It's a ponzi.
It's a pyramid.
There is no intrinsic value.
...
I should not go to bed now

 

we cannot go to bed

the next 8 hours are critical

 

We should postpone going to bed till the next halving. At least. 

[Torque]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

Everyone knows you are a paid troll here to stir negativity and doubt.  Otherwise you wouldn't have a reason to spend so much time here.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

I may know what articles you are alluding to.  Or maybe I don't.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.

Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.

But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

It obviously has been, until now.  Will it continue to be? 

I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.

I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now.   I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.

For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China.  In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.

[Walsoraj]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

Everyone knows you are a paid troll here to stir negativity and doubt.  Otherwise you wouldn't have a reason to spend so much time here.

False dichotomy, for example.

[Walsoraj]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

[Walsoraj]

I'm betting on an altcoin eventually supplanting Bitcoin, possibly as soon as the next bubble phase. Ripple is a strong candidate.

[JorgeStolfi]

SMBIT sold ~1200 BTC net this week https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg3620842#msg3620842.

Their holdings now ( ~105.8 kBTC) are back to the end-of-May levels, after a high of 108.2 kBTC on Aug/06

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

Well, it seems to be a consensus that the utilitarian demand (people buying BTC to pay for things) is still much less than the demands for day-trading and investment.  Like gold, but without the millennia of brainwashing of "gold is precious".

What signs of strengthening do you see?

[jl2012]

Please, tell me an example where someone lost bitcoins from a properly secured wallet...

First you give me an example of hackers stealing credit card information from a properly secured server.

Seriously do you think Bitcoin is less secure than fiat?

Yes I do.  How do you propose to measure that?

I propose you to encrypt the fiat from your wallet: try to give a password to your $100 fiat paper, then you can try to do a brain wallet from them...

Stupid for stupid: I propose that you write a malware that can steal a 10$ bill from my pocket.

(And note the word MEASURE.)

Just for curiosity, if some day you use bitcoin to buy a car, how will you make sure that the address that you are sending the bitcoins to is indeed the car dealer's?  What will you do if the car dealer tells you that they did not receive any bitcoins, and that their payment address is not the one you used?

Do you know you can try that 'suspicious' address from your car dealer, by sending first a few shatoshis right? Just saying...

Sure.  You scan the QR code on the screen or catalog and send 1 satoshi there.

Then you check the blockchain and see that the satoshi was indeed sent to the address displayed on the screen.

You call the dealer, and Bill from Sales confirms that the satoshi was indeed deposited in their payment address.

You then send the other 999.99999999 BTC to the same address.  So you think.

You check the blockchain and find that the second transaction went to a DIFFERENT address!

You call the store, and Bill says that the second address is not theirs.   

Then what?

OR, TO KEEP THINGS SMPLE:

One day you find that all your bitcoins were stolen from all your paper wallets.

Then what?

(How could that happen? Hint: how did you create the paper wallets?)

One day you find that all your coins were stolen from all your wallets.

Then what?


I really can't image this kind of shit would come from a computer science professor. This is just a generic computer security problem, and is not specific to Bitcoin. If your computer is infected by malware, you will certainly lose money in many different ways. Your personal information will be used to borrow money. Your credit card number will be used to subscribe pron sites. Your files will be encrypted and you have to pay ransom. Your naked photos will be spread on Facebook.

[Walsoraj]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

Well, it seems to be a consensus that the utilitarian demand (people buying BTC to pay for things) is still much less than the demands for day-trading and investment.  Like gold, but without the millennia of brainwashing of "gold is precious".

What signs of strengthening do you see?

I am half-joking. But my other posts are dead serious.  

[cbeast]

If you go to a bank and take out money to buy a car, then when you buy the car you find out the money is counterfeit? What do you do?

[jl2012]

If you go to a bank and take out money to buy a car, then when you buy the car you find out the money is counterfeit? What do you do?

This does happen. People draw money from ATM and find out the money is counterfeit. The bank would never admit their fault and it's hardly possible for the customer to prove it.