Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I would like to offer you my public apology, Jorge, for my characterization of you as 'an old dog who won't learn a new trick'.  It really wasn't fair or particularly accurate, and, in retrospect, I would like to think my rhetorical skills are good enough that I could have made my argument without the need for that characterization.

You have my deepest apologies, and, in the future I will strive to keep my arguments at a less personal level.

Thanks, no grudge kept.  I will say a good word for you to the Bitcoin Goddess next time I meet her. All the best. 

[mooncake]

would be interesting see his technical opinions about the bitcoin protocol

We went through this, perhaps 4000 pages ago...

I have no technical criticisms about the protocol.  I am satisfied that it works as it was claimed to do.  There may be some efficiency problems, but I am willing to assume that they can be solved in due time.

My skepticism about its longterm success is due to economical, political, social and practical issues.  Many of the predictions that bitcoiners take for granted seem highly improbable to me.  They minimize, or ignore altogether, many problems (such as the risk of theft) that I believe are quite serious. And so on.

Given that you are a computer scientist, we are glad to hear that you are satisfied with its technicalities.

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

[vuduchyld]

It's a ponzi.
It's a pyramid.
There is no intrinsic value.
...
I should not go to bed now

 

we cannot go to bed

the next 8 hours are critical

 

8 hours?  Did you forget?  The Next 24 Hours are Critical for Bitcoin^TM

[adamstgBit]

would be interesting see his technical opinions about the bitcoin protocol

We went through this, perhaps 4000 pages ago...

I have no technical criticisms about the protocol.  I am satisfied that it works as it was claimed to do.  There may be some efficiency problems, but I am willing to assume that they can be solved in due time.

My skepticism about its longterm success is due to economical, political, social and practical issues.  Many of the predictions that bitcoiners take for granted seem highly improbable to me.  They minimize, or ignore altogether, many problems (such as the risk of theft) that I believe are quite serious. And so on.

Given that you are a computer scientist, we are glad to hear that you are satisfied with its technicalities.

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

like this guy?

 

no one has a F'ing clue!

[JorgeStolfi]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

[Walsoraj]

would be interesting see his technical opinions about the bitcoin protocol

We went through this, perhaps 4000 pages ago...

I have no technical criticisms about the protocol.  I am satisfied that it works as it was claimed to do.  There may be some efficiency problems, but I am willing to assume that they can be solved in due time.

My skepticism about its longterm success is due to economical, political, social and practical issues.  Many of the predictions that bitcoiners take for granted seem highly improbable to me.  They minimize, or ignore altogether, many problems (such as the risk of theft) that I believe are quite serious. And so on.

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course. But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

[adamstgBit]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

[Walsoraj]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

Yes. Please send more fiat to your favorite exchange.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mooncake]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

You may have sent, but has he received?

[shmadz]

Just for curiosity, if some day you use bitcoin to buy a car, how will you make sure that the address that you are sending the bitcoins to is indeed the car dealer's?  What will you do if the car dealer tells you that they did not receive any bitcoins, and that their payment address is not the one you used?

Jorge Lolfi ladies and gentlemen, he'll be here all week.

[shmadz]

if i have a bitcoin wallet, and my friend living on mars has a bitcoin wallet, and i sent him a bitcoin, does the bitcoin travel faster than the speed of light?

Haha, trick question, bitcoins don't travel 

[Wary]

It's a ponzi.
It's a pyramid.
There is no intrinsic value.
...
I should not go to bed now

 

we cannot go to bed

the next 8 hours are critical

 

We should postpone going to bed till the next halving. At least. 

[Torque]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

Everyone knows you are a paid troll here to stir negativity and doubt.  Otherwise you wouldn't have a reason to spend so much time here.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

I may know what articles you are alluding to.  Or maybe I don't.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.

Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.

But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

It obviously has been, until now.  Will it continue to be? 

I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.

I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now.   I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.

For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China.  In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.

[Walsoraj]

As for economical, political, social and practical issues, wouldn't it be better for your colleagues in these other fields to comment? You are entitied to your views in these areas, of course, just saying these areas may not be your expertise.

The problems and argument flaws that I see are simple enough that one does not need to be a specialist in those fields to understand them.  On the other hand, some of them (such as the risk of theft) require knowledge of computers and cryptography that experts in those fields rarely have.  Moreover, few of them seem to care enough about bitcoin to learn about its economic and social fabric (exchanges, funds, payment processors, scams, miners, castles,  frappucinos, ...)

Everyone knows you are a paid troll here to stir negativity and doubt.  Otherwise you wouldn't have a reason to spend so much time here.

False dichotomy, for example.

[Walsoraj]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

[Walsoraj]

I'm betting on an altcoin eventually supplanting Bitcoin, possibly as soon as the next bubble phase. Ripple is a strong candidate.

[JorgeStolfi]

SMBIT sold ~1200 BTC net this week https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.msg3620842#msg3620842.

Their holdings now ( ~105.8 kBTC) are back to the end-of-May levels, after a high of 108.2 kBTC on Aug/06

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

Well, it seems to be a consensus that the utilitarian demand (people buying BTC to pay for things) is still much less than the demands for day-trading and investment.  Like gold, but without the millennia of brainwashing of "gold is precious".

What signs of strengthening do you see?