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Author Topic: [BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)  (Read 198993 times)
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Deprived (OP)
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June 23, 2013, 04:12:47 PM
 #281

Sold   202
Swapped   0
Total   202
Price   0.05419
Total   10.94638
Less Fee   10.92448724
Man Fee   0.327734617
   
Units   16235
Excess Div   0.00003111
Refund   0.50507085

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    976.32168484
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,101.32168484
   
Outstanding MINING   21056
Outstanding SELLING   21056
Outstanding PURCHASE   280
Effective Units   21336
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,098.54753150
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05148798
Days Dividend Post Div   395.99
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,098.54753150
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05148798
PURCHASE selling price    0.05406238
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05045822
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June 23, 2013, 04:35:52 PM
 #282

DMS.MINING
bid price: ฿ 0.012551
Dividend: ฿ 0.00013

Dividend it's more than 1% x day.
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June 23, 2013, 05:02:10 PM
 #283

A couple of questions, Deprived, regarding the LTC-ATF.B1 bonds.

I don't think I've seen an market buy of those bonds, so I'm assuming you've issued them privately as the numbers of bonds listed on BTCT has remained steady. How does this affect the LTF-ATF fund? Just recently you stated that the fund had too much money and you wanted to reduce the funds by issuing a dividend. Will not a private issuing of 125 BTC significantly increase the debt of that fund?

When or if you need to liquidate the LTC-ATF.B1, how do you intend to do that? There isn't nearly enough bids at the market (nor have I seen) to trade openly. Is there a guarantee that these bonds will be liquidated by the normal redeem procedures of the bond? If so, what is this backing? Will the LTC-ATF holders be affected if, in theory, difficulty dropped considerably?

.b

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June 24, 2013, 03:51:47 AM
 #284

A couple of questions, Deprived, regarding the LTC-ATF.B1 bonds.

I don't think I've seen an market buy of those bonds, so I'm assuming you've issued them privately as the numbers of bonds listed on BTCT has remained steady. How does this affect the LTF-ATF fund? Just recently you stated that the fund had too much money and you wanted to reduce the funds by issuing a dividend. Will not a private issuing of 125 BTC significantly increase the debt of that fund?

When or if you need to liquidate the LTC-ATF.B1, how do you intend to do that? There isn't nearly enough bids at the market (nor have I seen) to trade openly. Is there a guarantee that these bonds will be liquidated by the normal redeem procedures of the bond? If so, what is this backing? Will the LTC-ATF holders be affected if, in theory, difficulty dropped considerably?

.b


The LTC-ATF.B1 bonds were NOT newly issued ones.  They were ones I already personally owned - either bought by me via the market or bought by me personally from people who wanted to sell theirs.  Thats why if you look at dividends you'll see that the same 250k shares were paid dividends before AND after I transferred these to the fund.  

If you read through the LTC-ATF thread you'll find one example in there of me personally buying the bonds.  TAT wanted to cashout 5500 of his bonds (to get out of BTC before the drop in its price).  The fund bought back 2k (20 BTC) of them at its rate of 99% and I took the other 3.5k (35 BTC) myself at full face value (as I'd personally already liquidated all the BTC I wanted to before the expected drop).  Private purchases like that (which don't effect the fund at all) aren't usually disclosed - that one was as usagi had claimed the 2K drop in outstanding bonds was me selling to myself then selling back after a dividend (which would be a remarkable dumb way for me to steal money given I could just transfer it).  TAT confirmed he'd done the deal with me - to close that stupid idea down (though it was provably wrong anyway).

So there was no increase in debt as a result of this fund getting the LTC-ATF.B1.

You also need to understand a bit more about how LTC-ATF works.  It's valued and priced in LTC - but trades a lot in BTC.  CUrrency exposure is reduced by the existence of the LTC-ATF.B1 bonds.  The majority of BTC trading is done with funds raised by the bonds - as that is offset by a BTC-denominated liabilty (the face value of the bonds) it greatly reduces LTC-ATF's exposure to BTC (and also retains most profit for LTC-ATF).  The excess capital LTC-ATF has is LTC-denominated.  We can't use that for BTC trading - as we'd then expose ourself to exchange-rate risk.  So we're often in the position of needing more BTC and less LTC (as we make profit - and that profit ends up being held as ~85% LTC denominated whilst LTC-denominated activity is probably only 20-25% of what we do).

If this fund needs to liquidate the LTC-ATF.B1 then at present there's two ways of doing it:

1.  Sell back to LTC-ATF at 99% of face value.
2.  Sell back to me at full face value.

LTC-ATF.B1 are backed by ALL the assets of LTC-ATF, which has no other debts.

At present there are 250 BTC worth of LTC-ATF.B1 (at full face value).
LTC-ATF's gross assets are approximately 325 BTC worth of BTC-denominated assets and 350 BTC worth of LTC-denominated assets.  So well over double the value of the bonds.  And of that ~675 BTC worth of assets over 91% is in actual cash (BTC or LTC).  It's rare cash falls below 85% - as we trade not invest so our whole game-plan is about not having cash stuck in actual assets for too long.

At present (and nearly always) LTC-ATF could pay off all the bonds AND buy out every unit of LTC-ATF not owned by me personally without having to liquidate ANYTHING.  That's nearly always the case - and is why LTC-ATF can constantly maintain a bid-wall for over 1/3 of its outstanding units at about 98% or so of NAV.

In practice if difficulty fell a lot and we had to liquidate the LTC-ATF.B1 I'd just buy them back myself at face value - same as the fund got them for.  Saves a lot of hassle and moving funds around.  That may change shortly - to where it would be better for the fund (AND for LTC-ATF) to sell back to LTC-ATF but that's an announcement that I'll make if/when it proves to be the case.  In any event LTC-ATF has about 275 BTC cash so could comfortably buy them back without even having to exchange any LTC and then resell at face+1% easily - so redemption is no problem whatsoever.

As I alluded to above, there'll likely be a change shortly in the way LTC-ATF handles bonds/debt.  That change will have zero negative impact on this fund - and possibly a positive one.
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June 24, 2013, 05:59:01 AM
 #285

Could someone explain how DMS.SELLING gets their dividends paid out (in layman's terms or via an example)?

I've already read the contract.
Deprived (OP)
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June 24, 2013, 06:45:22 AM
 #286

Could someone explain how DMS.SELLING gets their dividends paid out (in layman's terms or via an example)?

I've already read the contract.

If you look back a few pages to when SELLING got its last dividend there's a lot of explanation around there.

Put simply, after a rise in difficulty capital is examined and how many days of dividends (for MINING) it covers is calculated at the new higher difficulty.  If that number is more than 410 (days) then SELLING gets a dividend such that it reduces capital to 400 days of cover (of MINING's dividend at the new higher difficulty).  The check to see if a dividend should be paid (and payment where appropriate) occurs after payment of a dividend to MINING.
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June 24, 2013, 07:16:19 AM
 #287

Could someone explain how DMS.SELLING gets their dividends paid out (in layman's terms or via an example)?

MINING dividends are paid out of the money held by the fund (the "capital"). According to the contract, any money not used to pay MINING dividends is eventually paid to SELLING as dividends.

The fund only keeps enough capital to pay 400 days worth of MINING dividends at the current difficulty. Any excess over 400 days is paid to SELLING as dividends.

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June 24, 2013, 04:38:18 PM
 #288

When will be the next Rise of the Difficulty?
Approx.  20%?

What's the estimated Dividend of SELLING by that time?

Deprived (OP)
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June 24, 2013, 04:46:06 PM
 #289

Sold   921
Swapped   0
Total   921
Price   0.054062
Total   49.791102
Less Fee   49.6915198
Man Fee   1.490745594

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,021.74489794
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,146.74489794
   
Outstanding MINING   21854
Outstanding SELLING   21854
Outstanding PURCHASE   403
Effective Units   22257
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,143.85099417
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05139286
Days Dividend Post Div   395.26
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,143.85099417
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05139286
PURCHASE selling price    0.05396251
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05036501
Deprived (OP)
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June 24, 2013, 04:48:13 PM
 #290

When will be the next Rise of the Difficulty?
Approx.  20%?

What's the estimated Dividend of SELLING by that time?

Hard to say as network hashpower has been very inconsistent recently.

Looks at moment like only about a 5% rise which would mean SELLING dividend was very small if any at all.  But that could easily change iif hashpower went back up for the rest of the period before change.
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June 25, 2013, 09:57:08 AM
 #291

Wow whats going on with Mining? I guess I should have held it a bit longer  Grin

With the new USB Miners a good price for the mining should be around 0.013 for 5 Mhs...
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June 25, 2013, 10:03:24 AM
 #292

Wow whats going on with Mining? I guess I should have held it a bit longer  Grin

With the new USB Miners a good price for the mining should be around 0.013 for 5 Mhs...

Difficulty estimates aren't very high since there have been large dips in network hashrate. This has a negative effect on the expected dividend (and thus the price) of SELLING and that means a boost for MINING, since their prices are linked.
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June 25, 2013, 10:32:16 AM
 #293

Wow whats going on with Mining? I guess I should have held it a bit longer  Grin

With the new USB Miners a good price for the mining should be around 0.013 for 5 Mhs...

Little higher imho, about 0.015 if you don't consider sidecosts of the USB miner (shipping, power...)

I'd never thought the overpriced AM hardware could sometime be cheaper than the mining bonds.

Interesting fact: The dips in hashrate this week are not at least partly caused by AM itself (maintenance). And with difficulty increasing only about 5% next time, the price for the USB miners is a good one right now...
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June 25, 2013, 10:34:09 AM
 #294

Difficulty estimates aren't very high since there have been large dips in network hashrate. This has a negative effect on the expected dividend (and thus the price) of SELLING and that means a boost for MINING, since their prices are linked.
But who buys Mining for such prices when the actual hardware is a lot cheaper? Also I can only see 1 big dip in the difficulty and that is more than a week ago.
People really only looking for the very next dividend or what?
Well I think its time to get a position in Selling I think Wink

MINING is still cheaper than other PMBs and while the USB Block Erupter is now priced more competitively, those prices are only for large orders and it will take some time before the price drop spills over to the retail market (and there will still be a premium from resellers).

Additionally, there may be speculators who are betting on a further price drop of SELLING if the upcoming dividend is small and plan on selling on the correlated price jump of MINING. Who knows?
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June 25, 2013, 04:23:52 PM
 #295

Sold   1752
Swapped   0
Total   1752
Price   0.053963
Total   94.543176
Less Fee   94.35408965
Man Fee   2.830622689

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,110.37873254
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,235.37873254
   
Outstanding MINING   23586
Outstanding SELLING   23586
Outstanding PURCHASE   423
Effective Units   24009
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,232.25702990
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05132480
Days Dividend Post Div   394.74
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,232.25702990
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05132480
PURCHASE selling price    0.05389104
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05029830
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June 25, 2013, 10:43:28 PM
 #296

Thanks for everything Deprived, this has been a lot of fun.
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June 26, 2013, 07:12:44 AM
 #297

Looks like there is a buying opportunity for selling; the price is around .035 and the network hash rate just jumped from 160 TH/s to 200 TH/s today. Even with only 500 blocks left til difficulty change this is going to have a profound effect.
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June 26, 2013, 08:38:54 AM
 #298

At the current tracking of 6.7% difficulty increase, DMS.SELLING should receive a dividend of 0.002931 BTC/Share.
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June 26, 2013, 04:03:07 PM
 #299

Sold   1090
Swapped   0
Total   1090
Price   0.053891
Total   58.74119
Less Fee   58.62370762
Man Fee   1.758711229

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,164.12209001
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,289.12209001
   
Outstanding MINING   24777
Outstanding SELLING   24777
Outstanding PURCHASE   322
Effective Units   25099
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,285.85866319
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05123147
Days Dividend Post Div   394.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,285.85866319
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05123147
PURCHASE selling price    0.05379304
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05020684
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June 26, 2013, 04:32:42 PM
 #300

Then you wouldn't mind to tell us what the one-time dividend for SELLING will be after the difficulty has risen to e.g. 19,200,000  Grin
I might easily have done something wrong:

Current MINING div 0.00016113
Difficulty change 19'402'467.47/15'605'632.68 = 1.24329899773
New MINING div 0.00016113/1.24329899773 = .000129599

Current assets 734.18617511
Current units 11630
Asset/unit 0.06312865

410 with new MINING div .000129599 * 410 = 0.05313559
400 with new MINING div .000129599 * 400 = 0.05183960
Excess asset/unit 0.06312865 - 0.05183960 = 0.01128905


Wanted to thank you for this explanation a while ago - very helpful!
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