[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Sold   2486
Swapped   0
Total   2486
Price   0.02832
Total   70.40352
Less Fee   70.26271296
Man Fee   2.107881389

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,243.55159603
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.23747398
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.57920386
Just-Dice Balance    159.20000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,807.20827387
   
Outstanding MINING   60294
Outstanding SELLING   60294
Outstanding PURCHASE   6647
Effective Units   66941
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,802.70672601
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02692978
Days Dividend Post Div   400.46
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,802.70672601
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02692978
PURCHASE selling price    0.02828
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02639
   
J-D House profit at report   4120

[Lohoris]

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Due to the incredibly naive security flaws, I wouldn't touch Bitfunder nor its relatives with a 10-inch pole.

[Progressive]

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Due to the incredibly naive security flaws, I wouldn't touch Bitfunder nor its relatives with a 10-inch pole.

What security flaws? Should I be worried?
As far as I know Deprived/LTC.ATF is trading there for quite a long time...

[Deprived]

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Due to the incredibly naive security flaws, I wouldn't touch Bitfunder nor its relatives with a 10-inch pole.

What security flaws? Should I be worried?
As far as I know Deprived/LTC.ATF is trading there for quite a long time...

There was a cross-session exploit which caused some people to have shares transferred out of their accounts.  That was fixed a while back.  Victims were people who did dumb things like clicking links from reddit whilst logged into exchanges etc.  Afaik the problem is solved or at least heavily mitigated.  Although transfers were what the exploit was used on, there were other ways damage could have been done.   There were a bunch of unrelated account breaches at the same time - those seem to have been not the fault of the exchange, rather people who didn't use 2FA and got their passwords key-logged/phished.

I use 2FA everywhere I can if I hadn't made that plain before.  All DMS funds (including on Coinlenders and in J-D) need 2FA to access.

[Deprived]

Note that J-D profits are estimated.  I KNOW exactly what our balance is (higher than reported) and have roudned it down to approximate for the management fee due (to dooglus) on our profits.  I don't want to divest+reinvest to get it exact - as that potentially costs us if J-D gos into a dive (as we paid fees we wouldn no logner have to).  The value I've given is accurate to within .1 BTC - I could try to calculate it exactly but no real point as it moves around by more than that every second anyway.

Sold   1135
Swapped   0
Total   1135
Price   0.02828
Total   32.0978
Less Fee   32.0336044
Man Fee   0.961008132

Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.37435494
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.64672106
Just-Dice Balance    159.60000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,834.38349418
   
Outstanding MINING   61381
Outstanding SELLING   61381
Outstanding PURCHASE   6695
Effective Units   68076
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,829.80562155
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02687887
Days Dividend Post Div   399.71
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,829.80562155
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02687887
PURCHASE selling price    0.02822
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02634
   
J-D House profit at report   4256

Anyone who looks carefully will find that the number of PURCHASE paid a dividend is actually 25 less than in the report above.  reason for that is I've been testing software to automate the transfer process - and as part of it have been sending PURCHASE from my personal account to the fund (and then returning them).  I forgot to send the last 25 back before the dividend processed so I missed out on 25 MINING dividends on those shares.  I only spotted the mistake when I did the audit just now - which immediately highlights any missed transfers as the total outstanding doesn't tally with the previous outstanding and sales (every report so far it's exactly matched - though on a few occasions I've had to go through transaction logs to find missed transfers).

[twentyseventy]

I cannot wait for an automated transfer process! I fell that there would be many more PURCHASE purchases (yes, I said it) if the buyer could get back M&S withing just a minute or so.

Sometimes the arbitrage window is very small....

[Rannasha]

I cannot wait for an automated transfer process! I fell that there would be many more PURCHASE purchases (yes, I said it) if the buyer could get back M&S withing just a minute or so.

Sometimes the arbitrage window is very small....

On the other hand, with faster P->M&S conversions, there will be a lot less arb-opportunities as the windows will close much faster, which is too bad as I increased my (small) holdings quite a bit the last few days with arb'ing.

[Deprived]

I cannot wait for an automated transfer process! I fell that there would be many more PURCHASE purchases (yes, I said it) if the buyer could get back M&S withing just a minute or so.

Sometimes the arbitrage window is very small....

It won't ever be quite that quick.  There's a limit of one call per minute to that API and it's also cached.  Would guess average time for transfers will be 2-3 minutes once it's all running - which will hopefully be by the weekend.

Have been ironing out some glitches today (more testing to go) then tomorrow will be running it in test mode where it'll report transfers and what it would have done but not actually do it (that'll speed up transfers anyway as I'll see more promptly when I need to do some).  If that works fine tomorrow then on Saturday will probably turn it on for smaller transfers (under 100) and do large ones manually then let it go fully live once I've checked all the safeguards are working properly.

I didn't develop it - someone else did (up to them if they want to take credit in public or not).

[twentyseventy]

I cannot wait for an automated transfer process! I fell that there would be many more PURCHASE purchases (yes, I said it) if the buyer could get back M&S withing just a minute or so.

Sometimes the arbitrage window is very small....

It won't ever be quite that quick.  There's a limit of one call per minute to that API and it's also cached.  Would guess average time for transfers will be 2-3 minutes once it's all running - which will hopefully be by the weekend.

Have been ironing out some glitches today (more testing to go) then tomorrow will be running it in test mode where it'll report transfers and what it would have done but not actually do it (that'll speed up transfers anyway as I'll see more promptly when I need to do some).  If that works fine tomorrow then on Saturday will probably turn it on for smaller transfers (under 100) and do large ones manually then let it go fully live once I've checked all the safeguards are working properly.

I didn't develop it - someone else did (up to them if they want to take credit in public or not).

That sounds good! Much easier than stalking you on bitcointalk to see if you're online...

[Progressive]

It looks that MINING is now near it's true value.
Also we should really start marketing MINING towards those buying USB Block Erupters...

[twentyseventy]

It looks that MINING is now near it's true value.
Also we should really start marketing MINING towards those buying USB Block Erupters...

We can't really know what MINING's true value is until after the DI has happened; right now all you can do is estimate. It's really going to depend on how many mining companies follow through with their Q3/Q4 deliveries. If Knc, ActM, Labcoin, etc come through, or even half come through, you're going to see some massive increases.

I'm tempted to buy MINING at .0025, which gives positive return with up to 40% increases each DI period, but there could be a massive jump come Sept/Oct/Nov this year...

[Deprived]

I cannot wait for an automated transfer process! I fell that there would be many more PURCHASE purchases (yes, I said it) if the buyer could get back M&S withing just a minute or so.

Sometimes the arbitrage window is very small....

It won't ever be quite that quick.  There's a limit of one call per minute to that API and it's also cached.  Would guess average time for transfers will be 2-3 minutes once it's all running - which will hopefully be by the weekend.

Have been ironing out some glitches today (more testing to go) then tomorrow will be running it in test mode where it'll report transfers and what it would have done but not actually do it (that'll speed up transfers anyway as I'll see more promptly when I need to do some).  If that works fine tomorrow then on Saturday will probably turn it on for smaller transfers (under 100) and do large ones manually then let it go fully live once I've checked all the safeguards are working properly.

I didn't develop it - someone else did (up to them if they want to take credit in public or not).

That sounds good! Much easier than stalking you on bitcointalk to see if you're online...

Well it just did its first actual transfer (I've got it running in a mode where it only actually does transfers to my personal account - everything else it still just reports but doesn't act).

From its log:

Most recent entry in trade history at 08/08/2013 18:05:50 (server time)
Update started at 08/08/2013 18:07:57
TX-IN: 20 x DMS.PURCHASE <- DeprivedPersonal
TX-OUT: 20 x DMS.MINING -> DeprivedPersonal
TX-OUT: 20 x DMS.SELLING -> DeprivedPersonal
TX-IN: 30 x DMS.PURCHASE <- DeprivedPersonal
TX-OUT: 30 x DMS.MINING -> DeprivedPersonal
TX-OUT: 30 x DMS.SELLING -> DeprivedPersonal
Update completed at 08/08/2013 18:08:06
Most recent trade was at 08/08/2013 18:07:00 (server time)

My transaction history last entries:

2013-08-08 18:08:07    DMS.SELLING    transfer-out (DeprivedPersonal)    30    0    0    0
2013-08-08 18:08:06    DMS.MINING    transfer-out (DeprivedPersonal)    30    0    0    0
2013-08-08 18:08:04    DMS.SELLING    transfer-out (DeprivedPersonal)    20    0    0    0
2013-08-08 18:08:03    DMS.MINING    transfer-out (DeprivedPersonal)    20    0    0    0
2013-08-08 18:07:00    DMS.PURCHASE    transfer-in (DeprivedPersonal)    30    0.02864    0    0.8592
2013-08-08 18:06:44    DMS.PURCHASE    transfer-in (DeprivedPersonal)    20    0.02864    0    0.5728

So we're basically there now - just got to test it a bit more thoroughly and make sure it handles things like network connection dropping etc.

[Rannasha]

It looks that MINING is now near it's true value.
Also we should really start marketing MINING towards those buying USB Block Erupters...

We can't really know what MINING's true value is until after the DI has happened; right now all you can do is estimate. It's really going to depend on how many mining companies follow through with their Q3/Q4 deliveries. If Knc, ActM, Labcoin, etc come through, or even half come through, you're going to see some massive increases.

I'm tempted to buy MINING at .0025, which gives positive return with up to 40% increases each DI period, but there could be a massive jump come Sept/Oct/Nov this year...

Regardless of how close MINING is to its true value, what is already true is that SELLING is reaching the end of its profitability. SELLING is trading around 0.023, MINING at 0.005. Which means that there is at most a 20% (and a little bit) profit to be had for SELLING (plus any gains from investments and PURCHASE sales). Compared to the 0.033 that SELLING has earned so far in dividends, that's not that much.

In not too long, the MINING/SELLING interplay will become quite a bit more delicate, instead of the "Buy SELLING and profit" motto that was true in the past (and might still be for some time to come).

[Deprived]

It looks that MINING is now near it's true value.
Also we should really start marketing MINING towards those buying USB Block Erupters...

We can't really know what MINING's true value is until after the DI has happened; right now all you can do is estimate. It's really going to depend on how many mining companies follow through with their Q3/Q4 deliveries. If Knc, ActM, Labcoin, etc come through, or even half come through, you're going to see some massive increases.

I'm tempted to buy MINING at .0025, which gives positive return with up to 40% increases each DI period, but there could be a massive jump come Sept/Oct/Nov this year...

Regardless of how close MINING is to its true value, what is already true is that SELLING is reaching the end of its profitability. SELLING is trading around 0.023, MINING at 0.005. Which means that there is at most a 20% (and a little bit) profit to be had for SELLING (plus any gains from investments and PURCHASE sales). Compared to the 0.033 that SELLING has earned so far in dividends, that's not that much.

In not too long, the MINING/SELLING interplay will become quite a bit more delicate, instead of the "Buy SELLING and profit" motto that was true in the past (and might still be for some time to come).

It's definitely true that the profit potential on SELLING has dropped.  But IF the price is correct then it's not as bad as it may at first seem - as for its value to really be that high the bulk of that capital would need to be returned pretty promptly anyway.  Part of the design of DMS was to try to ensure that even in this scenario (anticipated very high difficulty rises, so low MINING price and high SELLING price) SELLING didn't have to leave capital tied up excessively.

But if the prices are precisely correct then NEITHER is worth holding.  If total information were available and time-cost of capital and CP risk ignored then MINING would trade at slightly under total life-time expectation of dividends and SELLIng slightly above (reflecting that SELLING has the EV from investment).  The margin of profit on both would be so tiny as to make them fairly worthless as investments due to any cost placed on CP risk making them -EV.

DMS relies on the situation not arising where everyone agrees on exactly what the prices should be - but if that ever happens then I'd expect a mass sell-back as DMS would no longer be serving any purpose.

[Deprived]

Auto transfers will be turned on for next half hour or so - but only for quantities of 25 or less.

If anyone buys any PURCHASE in that period and wants to help test, then please split them up over a few smaller transactions and we'll see how the bot handles it.  Will post again once its turned back off (I'm heading out in half an hour and not gonna risk leaving it unattended yet) so after that DON'T split transfers up - as I'll have to catch up manually (bot has no current functionality to clear a back-log).

[Deprived]

Auto-transfers back off whilst I'm out for a bit.  So any transfers now won't get processed for a few hours.

[stripykitteh]

It looks that MINING is now near it's true value.
Also we should really start marketing MINING towards those buying USB Block Erupters...

We can't really know what MINING's true value is until after the DI has happened; right now all you can do is estimate. It's really going to depend on how many mining companies follow through with their Q3/Q4 deliveries. If Knc, ActM, Labcoin, etc come through, or even half come through, you're going to see some massive increases.

I'm tempted to buy MINING at .0025, which gives positive return with up to 40% increases each DI period, but there could be a massive jump come Sept/Oct/Nov this year...

My modelling showed that most of the difference to the value of DMS.MINING occurred in the first 3-4 DIs of the projection, i.e., a few big DIs now followed by smaller ones later on affected profitability much more than the reverse. MINING is a very risky thing to hold. It was easy to see when DMS.SELLING was cheap (i.e., when it was fair value assuming 8% DIs, but actual increases were 19-20%); I don't think we'll ever be able to say the same thing about DMS.MINING.

[Deprived]

Auto-transfers are now fully enabled - though being watched carefully by me.  So if you send PURCHASE and don't receive your MINING+SELLING within 5 minutes drop me a PM (though check BTC-TC hasn't gone down first).

If BTC-TC does become inaccessible (which happens occasionally - it was unavailable for me for a while yesterday night) then the bot should catch up with any back-log as soon as connectivity returns.  This net connection is also not the most steady and, for various reasons, it isn't set to reconnect when connection drops.

From time to time it'll be turned off as it's running on the computer I'm using (so I can monitor it) which tends to get restarted a few times each day.  Once it's been goign a few days without problems I'll sling it on a new computer with its own internet connection so it doesn't have problems whenever I max out bandwidth usage on this connection myself (I have a backup mobile broadband connection that's currently unused which it can have for itself).  At that stage it'll be set to reconnect automatically and downtime other than when BTC-TC is down should be far less frequent and for shorter periods.

It may also be down occasionally whilst I test software upgrades (LTC-Global integration is being worked on to allow cross-exchange transfers that are needed for the next securities LTC-ATF will be launching).  Functionality is now added (and tested) so that after any period offline I can set it to clear back-logs.

One last point is that it does NOT attempt to retry transfers that fail (just reports them for me to manually fix).  That has to be the case as I can't rely on everyone being honest and returning double-sends (on occasion BBTC-TC has been known to report a failure when an action actually gos through - e.g. yesterday it 3 times failed on transferring my DMS management fee with ''wallet lock" errors but two of them actually transferred.)

[eltopo]

Which bot do you use? Can you give some details or a link?

[Deprived]

Which bot do you use? Can you give some details or a link?

It was written specifically for this.  It's in C#. Here's a screen-shot of it :



Grayed out section to the right is the relevant part - allows me  to run in test mode (where it reports what it would have done but doesn't do it), only process trades for 1 user (used in testing), set the frequency it runs at, set it to only do automatic transfers below a certain amount and set a start time for it to catch up on back-log from (by default it only process trades that occur after it's started).

I sent in a few of my own PURCHASE just before the screen-shot so it showed what it looked like when a transfer actually occurred (last real one was some hours back).