[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

One more question: If the price of MINING dropped by 90% the day before SELLING got dividends, how would that effect SELLING's dividend? What if it dropped the day after the dividend?

The market price has no effect on dividends.

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[eltopo]

Hmm.. I think I'm going to see how going long on DMS.MINING instead of DMS.SELLING this cycle will do me. Seems as if there is significant stagnation in difficulty growth rates due to most of the batch 3 avalons being released last cycle as well as the fact that ASICminer seems to be in the middle of two generations of technology and are not adding to their hashrate.

If history shows anything, its that mining declines by a HUGE amount after/during selling's dividend as people rush to get in their SELLING shares only to bounce back by 10% or so. However, this time it will be bouncing back with the added bonus of a lackluster difficulty increase in the future.

I think you might make some money this way. 0.01 actually seems like a reasonable price especially considering the next difficulty increase will probably be less than 10%. Because of this prediction I actually liquidated my SELLING for ~12% profit over the last month (I paid a lot @ .042 before the first dividend  ) and invested elsewhere.

Yeah well someone just snatched up my ask at .01458 that I paid mid .012 to low .013 for, so looks like this experiment will end shortly and profitably for me.

I guess you are very very happy you already sold... your previous plan going long on MINING would otherwise have made you about -40% 

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).

It seems that the upcoming Asicminer competition (Labcoin, BTCGarden, perhaps ActiveMining) is first anticipated by DMS shareholders. There are some interesting weeks to come...

[stripykitteh]

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).

I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.

[eltopo]

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).

I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.

I wrote average difficulty jump (in the future)... but you are right, the difficulty jump estimations of MINING (buyers) and even more from other PMBs have always been conservative, but now we're heading in the right direction....

[Deprived]

Report will be at usual time (right after dividend gos out and I've checked everything balances).  This is just a brief note in advance so I don't have to type it later.

A total of 5000 each of MINING and SELLING were bought back by DMS today.  The effect of that has been that NAV/U after today's dividend will be higher than they were at the start of the day (as we buy back at a bit below NAV/U).  If we have more sell-backs then I'll need to pull some of our investment out of J-D so as not to go over 10% invested there.

The sell-backs are working as intended - they provide a mechanism to prevent total collapse of prices when someone heavily dumps one or the other of MINING/SELLING (as soon as it falls a bit below sell-back price people step in to place bids and make a profit selling back pairs).

[Deprived]

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1066.908422
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.32546264
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.12934983
Just-Dice Balance    173.10613987
TOTAL ASSETS    1,654.39937403
   
Outstanding MINING   48912
Outstanding SELLING   48912
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   51650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,650.24428013
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03195052
Days Dividend Post Div   397.16
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,650.24428013
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03195052
PURCHASE selling price    0.03355
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03131
   
J-D House profit at report   2531

[stripykitteh]

With thousands of MINING sold into the bids at 0.007 we're now at an estimated average difficulty jump of ~17-18% (it was at <10% in the last weeks).

I think 17-18% is quite conservative for the next jump. My own model has been steadily predicting something a bit higher.

I wrote average difficulty jump (in the future)... but you are right, the difficulty jump estimations of MINING (buyers) and even more from other PMBs have always been conservative, but now we're heading in the right direction....

Apologies, I misinterpreted what you wrote.

[eltopo]

Report will be at usual time (right after dividend gos out and I've checked everything balances).  This is just a brief note in advance so I don't have to type it later.

A total of 5000 each of MINING and SELLING were bought back by DMS today.  The effect of that has been that NAV/U after today's dividend will be higher than they were at the start of the day (as we buy back at a bit below NAV/U).  If we have more sell-backs then I'll need to pull some of our investment out of J-D so as not to go over 10% invested there.

The sell-backs are working as intended - they provide a mechanism to prevent total collapse of prices when someone heavily dumps one or the other of MINING/SELLING (as soon as it falls a bit below sell-back price people step in to place bids and make a profit selling back pairs).

So, how many of the 5000 did you buy back from yourself? 3000?   

[Deprived]

Report will be at usual time (right after dividend gos out and I've checked everything balances).  This is just a brief note in advance so I don't have to type it later.

A total of 5000 each of MINING and SELLING were bought back by DMS today.  The effect of that has been that NAV/U after today's dividend will be higher than they were at the start of the day (as we buy back at a bit below NAV/U).  If we have more sell-backs then I'll need to pull some of our investment out of J-D so as not to go over 10% invested there.

The sell-backs are working as intended - they provide a mechanism to prevent total collapse of prices when someone heavily dumps one or the other of MINING/SELLING (as soon as it falls a bit below sell-back price people step in to place bids and make a profit selling back pairs).

So, how many of the 5000 did you buy back from yourself? 3000?   

Actually yeah - I sold back 3000 MINING + SELLING myself (at same price as anyone else obviously).  Good guess

[Deprived]

Just giving disclosure of something.

Some of you may know there's over-subscription of the Labcoin IPO and that it's being done in a strange way (everyone getting orders partially filled at a fixed price).  That means you only get sales of a fraction of what you bid for - rather than the usual all-or-nothing approach.

I can't buy them with DMS - as would need investor approval to do so.  What I AM doing is lending 400 BTC to myself at 5% for 24 hours.  So 420 BTC will be repaid within the next day.

Most of it will never be used - it's just to bump my order so I actually get the few hundred BTC-worth I personally wanted.  Will send back most of it right after IPO processes - and the rest as soon as I sell a few.  If I don't get the price I want by midday tomorrow for some I'll pull the rest back from my personal J-D account.

So it's basically as safe a loan as you can get - most of it will never be used for anything at all and the bit that will be used is backed by my own cash.  It's a 20 BTC bonus for SELLING on their next dividend in effect.

EDIT: to be clear, when I say it's for 24 hours I actually mean it'll all be back before tomorrow's report.

[twentyseventy]

Just giving disclosure of something.

Some of you may know there's over-subscription of the Labcoin IPO and that it's being done in a strange way (everyone getting orders partially filled at a fixed price).  That means you only get sales of a fraction of what you bid for - rather than the usual all-or-nothing approach.

I can't buy them with DMS - as would need investor approval to do so.  What I AM doing is lending 400 BTC to myself at 5% for 24 hours.  So 420 BTC will be repaid within the next day.

Most of it will never be used - it's just to bump my order so I actually get the few hundred BTC-worth I personally wanted.  Will send back most of it right after IPO processes - and the rest as soon as I sell a few.  If I don't get the price I want by midday tomorrow for some I'll pull the rest back from my personal J-D account.

So it's basically as safe a loan as you can get - most of it will never be used for anything at all and the bit that will be used is backed by my own cash.  It's a 20 BTC bonus for SELLING on their next dividend in effect.

EDIT: to be clear, when I say it's for 24 hours I actually mean it'll all be back before tomorrow's report.

I'm assuming you'll still have enough to cover if J-D sees another Celeste swing into the negative?

[Deprived]

Just giving disclosure of something.

Some of you may know there's over-subscription of the Labcoin IPO and that it's being done in a strange way (everyone getting orders partially filled at a fixed price).  That means you only get sales of a fraction of what you bid for - rather than the usual all-or-nothing approach.

I can't buy them with DMS - as would need investor approval to do so.  What I AM doing is lending 400 BTC to myself at 5% for 24 hours.  So 420 BTC will be repaid within the next day.

Most of it will never be used - it's just to bump my order so I actually get the few hundred BTC-worth I personally wanted.  Will send back most of it right after IPO processes - and the rest as soon as I sell a few.  If I don't get the price I want by midday tomorrow for some I'll pull the rest back from my personal J-D account.

So it's basically as safe a loan as you can get - most of it will never be used for anything at all and the bit that will be used is backed by my own cash.  It's a 20 BTC bonus for SELLING on their next dividend in effect.

EDIT: to be clear, when I say it's for 24 hours I actually mean it'll all be back before tomorrow's report.

I'm assuming you'll still have enough to cover if J-D sees another Celeste swing into the negative?

I have enough to cover in a few different places - just J-D is the fastest one to get cash out of.  I still have investment in DMS that would cover the whole amount that is being spent.  And my  personal LTC-ATF shares are worth a lot more .  Plus I have other investments, funds on Bitfinex etc.  Only way it vanishes is if BTC-TC takes it - in which case DMS has rather bigger problems anyway as ALL our cash would be gone.

To be clear, even if my personal J-D investment all vanished AND labcoin immediately scammed and their shares went to 0 the loan would be back before tomorrow's report.

[Lytse]

Just giving disclosure of something.

Some of you may know there's over-subscription of the Labcoin IPO and that it's being done in a strange way (everyone getting orders partially filled at a fixed price).  That means you only get sales of a fraction of what you bid for - rather than the usual all-or-nothing approach.

I can't buy them with DMS - as would need investor approval to do so.  What I AM doing is lending 400 BTC to myself at 5% for 24 hours.  So 420 BTC will be repaid within the next day.

Most of it will never be used - it's just to bump my order so I actually get the few hundred BTC-worth I personally wanted.  Will send back most of it right after IPO processes - and the rest as soon as I sell a few.  If I don't get the price I want by midday tomorrow for some I'll pull the rest back from my personal J-D account.

So it's basically as safe a loan as you can get - most of it will never be used for anything at all and the bit that will be used is backed by my own cash.  It's a 20 BTC bonus for SELLING on their next dividend in effect.

EDIT: to be clear, when I say it's for 24 hours I actually mean it'll all be back before tomorrow's report.

What if you make a huge loss at IPO and are not able to pay back the 400 BTC loan and the daily 20 BTC interest?

[Deprived]

If it's not clear what the loan is being used for, it's being used to inflate a bid I make so I actually get to spend all (or msot of) my own funds.  The loan itself isn't being spent (or not much of it - I can't tell for sure exactly how much excess demand there is).

My guess is it'll be around a 2.5:1 over-suscription on the IPO.  So if I want to spend 100 BTC I have to put in 250 BTC of bids.  I want to spend more than that - but can't get cash there in time to bid excessively - so am just borrowing so I can spend my OWN cash then return the loan soon as my order is partly filled.  As it's possible the filling will run into the loan a bit I gave myself 24 hours - as I'm about to head out I won't be able to sort it anyway until tomorrow (will be drinking so not gonna risk moving significant sums around when I get back).  At present there's bids for over 17 million shares with only 7 million available - and there'll be more bids going up all the time until the actual sale.  So I may STILL not get to buy all I planned to anyway.

[Lohoris]

What if you make a huge loss at IPO and are not able to pay back the 400 BTC loan and the daily 20 BTC interest?

this:

To be clear, even if my personal J-D investment all vanished AND labcoin immediately scammed and their shares went to 0 the loan would be back before tomorrow's report.

Personally, I'll enjoy this bonus to the dividend! : )

[Rannasha]

Me too, do this more often NAV/U increases are what makes me sleep well at night

[Lytse]

Personally, I'll enjoy this bonus to the dividend! : )

Yeah, but all the bitcoin (that I don't have) to buy more SELLING is in the IPO

[Deprived]

What if you make a huge loss at IPO and are not able to pay back the 400 BTC loan and the daily 20 BTC interest?

this:

To be clear, even if my personal J-D investment all vanished AND labcoin immediately scammed and their shares went to 0 the loan would be back before tomorrow's report.

Personally, I'll enjoy this bonus to the dividend! : )

Whilst I'm disclosing stuff may as well disclose that I also cashed in 5500 MINING and 5500 SELLING form my personal holdings.  Had been planning to hold them longer but am using the cash for that IPO.  I still have more value of personal DMS holdings left than that 170 BTC I just cashed out - that's one of the ways I could repay even in worst case scenarios.

Off out for beer/live music now - expect a nice boost in NAV/U tomorrow.

[Rannasha]

What if you make a huge loss at IPO and are not able to pay back the 400 BTC loan and the daily 20 BTC interest?

this:

To be clear, even if my personal J-D investment all vanished AND labcoin immediately scammed and their shares went to 0 the loan would be back before tomorrow's report.

Personally, I'll enjoy this bonus to the dividend! : )

Whilst I'm disclosing stuff may as well disclose that I also cashed in 5500 MINING and 5500 SELLING form my personal holdings.  Had been planning to hold them longer but am using the cash for that IPO.  I still have more value of personal DMS holdings left than that 170 BTC I just cashed out - that's one of the ways I could repay even in worst case scenarios.

Off out for beer/live music now - expect a nice boost in NAV/U tomorrow.

More NAV/U! Must have more NAV/U!

In other news, the wording of the DMS contract conflicts with the JD investment.

Investments (including loans to other companies) must meet ALL of the following criteria:

    They must be BTC denominated.
    They must have a precise face value with guaranteed redemption at that face value (other than small administrative fees)
    They must anticipate paying a return of at least 10% per year
    They must be backed by significant assets making the risk of default absolutely minimal
    Issuer must have no history of defaulting, paying substantially late or failing to deliver on promises/guarantees made by themselves or companies managed/operated by them.
    Issuer must have a significant track record of successfully managing business(es) in accordance with their contracts and with a profitable outcome for investors.

Specifically, item 2 and 3 are an issue. The JD investment has no guaranteed redemption whatsoever. Also, no yearly return is anticipated by the issuer/manager at all. The yearly return may fluctuate greatly, depending on ratio between amount wagered and amount invested per unit of time.

Personally, I have no objections to the JD investment and I voted in favour when the motion was put up. But that doesn't take away that there's an discrepancy here.

[Lytse]

What if you cannot pay back the loan within 24 hours. I will be expecting a daily 20 BTC interest.

You're out drinking tonight and maybe something stupid happens, you can never know for sure....