[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[junkonator]

This time the link is right. http://bitbet.us/bet/487/dms-will-still-be-traded-at-the-end/
This is a bet that can be used to hedge against big diff-changes for selling/mining:

"The fund Deprived Mining Speculation on BTCT (that is: https://btct.co/security/DMS.MINING , https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING and https://btct.co/security/DMS.PURCHASE) will still be traded at the end of 2013. "

[Rannasha]

This time the link is right. http://bitbet.us/bet/487/dms-will-still-be-traded-at-the-end/
This is a bet that can be used to hedge against big diff-changes for selling/mining:

"The fund Deprived Mining Speculation on BTCT (that is: https://btct.co/security/DMS.MINING , https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING and https://btct.co/security/DMS.PURCHASE) will still be traded at the end of 2013. "

The only reason for DMS to stop trading (other than Deprived quitting) is if the difficulty remains constant, decreases or only increases by very small amounts for quite some time. As long as the difficulty increases by just a few % each time (on average), there will be enough assets in the fund to keep paying a years worth of MINING dividends.

And if you're betting on the difficulty not increasing more than a few %, then you can just buy MINING instead of placing a bet on bitbet.

[Deprived]

No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,232.09872756
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.59808900
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.80596113
Just-Dice Balance    170.16517716
TOTAL ASSETS    1,819.59795485
   
Outstanding MINING   53718
Outstanding SELLING   53718
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56399
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,815.06081757
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03218250
Days Dividend Post Div   400.05
SELLING Dividend    -        
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,815.06081757
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03218250
PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154
   
J-D House profit at report   1847

[junkonator]

The only reason for DMS to stop trading (other than Deprived quitting) is if the difficulty remains constant, decreases or only increases by very small amounts for quite some time.

Deprived quitting, btct.co going down, bugs in bitcoind, new legislation, big mining farms ceased and 51% attack come to mind. Also that way you don't have to have a btct.co account.

[BTCThousandaire]

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

[Rannasha]

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

Sell PURCHASE to who? The buyback price for PURCHASE is updated with each dividend payment. If you intend to sell just before the SELLING dividend, you might as well buy only MINING, collect its dividends and then sell just before a difficulty change.

That would still be a risky strategy, as the price of MINING does fluctuate between difficulty adjustments, typically a gradual downward trend (though upward spikes also occur).

I don't really see where the 'guaranteed profit' comes from.

[Deprived]

Sold   170
Swapped   0
Total   170
Price   0.03379
Total   5.7443
Less Fee   5.7328114
Man Fee   0.171984342

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,233.12233941
11293 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.71623349
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.86423648
Just-Dice Balance    170.27836447
TOTAL ASSETS    1,820.91117385
   
Outstanding MINING   53888
Outstanding SELLING   53888
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56569
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,816.36036056
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03210876
Days Dividend Post Div   399.13
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,816.36036056
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03210876
PURCHASE selling price    0.03371
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03147
   
J-D House profit at report   1869

[BTCThousandaire]

I figured out how to make a guaranteed 86% per year with DMS. Buy DMS.Purchase, collect dividends, sell before price drop, repeat.

Is this correct?

Sell PURCHASE to who? The buyback price for PURCHASE is updated with each dividend payment. If you intend to sell just before the SELLING dividend, you might as well buy only MINING, collect its dividends and then sell just before a difficulty change.

That would still be a risky strategy, as the price of MINING does fluctuate between difficulty adjustments, typically a gradual downward trend (though upward spikes also occur).

I don't really see where the 'guaranteed profit' comes from.

The price would not be the buyback price, but slightly lower. I see price dips where someone sold just under PURCHASE price.

[eltopo]

The PURCHASE price is also updated every day.

[Hfleer]

No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?

[Rannasha]

No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?

Buybacks happen by sending pairs of MINING+SELLING (or PURCHASE) to Depriveds account on BTCT.

[Deprived]

No sales of PURCHASE today, so no management fee (200 MINING+SELLING were bought back so number outstanding dropped by 200).

PURCHASE selling price    0.03379
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03154

Not sure if this was already covered, but does a MINING+SELLING get bought back everytime it can be done for less than the PURCHASE buy-back, or some other way?

I don''t check the markets to do that myself - but anyone who notices they can buy a MINING+SELLING for less than the sell-back price of a PURCHASE if free to buy them and send them to me to receive the buyback price.

[Deprived]

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1229.367208
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.85838545
Coinlenders CD 13/8    100.93435363
Just-Dice Balance    171.08161697
TOTAL ASSETS    1,818.17156410
   
Outstanding MINING   53888
Outstanding SELLING   53888
Outstanding PURCHASE   2681
Effective Units   56569
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,813.62075081
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03206033
Days Dividend Post Div   398.53
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,813.62075081
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03206033
PURCHASE selling price    0.03366
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03142
   
J-D House profit at report   2030

[Deprived]

Sold   201
Swapped   0
Total   201
Price   0.03366
Total   6.76566
Less Fee   6.75212868
Man Fee   0.20256386

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1231.365861
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 29/7    203.92824826
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.00070317
Just-Dice Balance    171.90295708
TOTAL ASSETS    1,821.12776920
   
Outstanding MINING   54032
Outstanding SELLING   54032
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   56770
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,816.56078603
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03199860
Days Dividend Post Div   397.76
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,816.56078603
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03199860
PURCHASE selling price    0.03360
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03136
   
J-D House profit at report   2246

Dividends took ages to process today - they were set correctly but didn't even start paying until :10 and then went very slowly.  Guess there's heavy load on the servers.

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

[Deprived]

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1226.965914
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.19229470
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.06366410
Just-Dice Balance    172.74218403
TOTAL ASSETS    1,813.89405702
   
Outstanding MINING   53912
Outstanding SELLING   53912
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   56650
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,809.33672751
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03193887
Days Dividend Post Div   397.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,809.33672751
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03193887
PURCHASE selling price    0.03354
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03130
   
J-D House profit at report   2430

[BTCThousandaire]

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

[stripykitteh]

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

The short answer is 'definitely to MINING and PURCHASE, possibly to SELLING as well'.

The longer answer is all dividends from investments get ploughed back into the fund. Dividends for MINING and PURCHASE are paid daily at the contracted rate (currently .00008045BTC/share/day). Dividends for SELLING only occur if there's enough in the kitty to pay at least 410 days worth of dividends to MINING at the currently contracted rate (currently there isn't, it's like 397 days or something). When the next difficulty increase occurs it looks likely SELLING will get a dividend, too.

[Deprived]

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

They don't get paid as a special dividend they get added to capital - and they're added into the NAV on a daily basis not when they end.

All the time that difficulty is rising at more than a few % per week the profits from investment go to SELLING in practical terms.  MINING's dividend is unchanged - being the PPS equivalent of 1 MH/S.  SELLING's dividend is what's left over after paying MINING (whilst maintaining a 400 day dividend buffer for MINING) so any profit from investment increases the size of the dividends SELLING receives.

PURCHASE gets all dividends paid to MINING AND SELLING - so it also benefits from profits from our investments.

[BTCThousandaire]

The first Coinlenders CD actually matured today.  I've just bought a new 200 BTC one but haven't yet withdrawn the profits (will be doing so later today - have to do it via inputs.io and haven't got that on this computer yet).  So from tomorrow there'll be a new 200 CD showing and the profit from first one will be back in our wallet on BTC-TC.

I just bought some funds, which ones will you pay the CD dividends to?

They don't get paid as a special dividend they get added to capital - and they're added into the NAV on a daily basis not when they end.

All the time that difficulty is rising at more than a few % per week the profits from investment go to SELLING in practical terms.  MINING's dividend is unchanged - being the PPS equivalent of 1 MH/S.  SELLING's dividend is what's left over after paying MINING (whilst maintaining a 400 day dividend buffer for MINING) so any profit from investment increases the size of the dividends SELLING receives.

PURCHASE gets all dividends paid to MINING AND SELLING - so it also benefits from profits from our investments.

Very nice explanation, thanks.

[BTCThousandaire]

One more question: If the price of MINING dropped by 90% the day before SELLING got dividends, how would that effect SELLING's dividend? What if it dropped the day after the dividend?