[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Just a note that we sold a further 1008 of our LTC-ATF.B1.

Their face-value was 10.08 BTC and after conversion from LTC, DMS received 12.33135187 BTC.

Whilst I don't really want to decrease investment, selling them at over a 20% markup is clearly a good move.  Seems like I gave DMS a nice bonus when I traded in 12.5k of these at face-value in return for PURCHASE.

I haven't always been reporting sales of these - usually I sweep across any sales when I move the weekly B1 dividend over - but as this was a larger sale and mid-week I'm reporting it now.

[Deprived]

Sorry for no report today - was out this afternoon, expected to be back in time to do it (or I'd have posted in advance that there wasn't going to be a report) but my plans changed.

I'm not going to try to produce a back-dated one as there have been significant sales of PURCHASE (and transfers) since so it would be messy.  As there were significant sales of PURCHASE and J-D did decently there will have been little change in the NAV/U anyway - would guesstimate that had I done a report selling price of PURCHASE would have dropped by maybe 0.1% (I can't change it now or that would really mess up calculation of management fee tomorrow).

I should be around to produce one as usual tomorrow - and will continue to try to provide them daily (and make sure I do so on days where SELLING gets a dividend).

EDIT:  Because we made over 2 BTC from sales of LTC-ATF.B1 it's actually the case that PURCHASE selling price would likely not have changed at all anyway.  Had forgotten that was done after the last report.

[Deprived]

Sold   12292
Swapped   0
Total   12292
Price   0.02061
Total   253.33812
Less Fee   252.8314438
Man Fee   7.584943313

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    2,147.82549957
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.2055082
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.61231872
Just-Dice Balance    244.50000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,786.85332646
   
Outstanding MINING   129354
Outstanding SELLING   129354
Outstanding PURCHASE   12548
Effective Units   141902
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00004949
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00247443
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00494886
365 days (Buyback)    0.01806334
405 days (IPO)    0.02004288
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01979544
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02029033
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,779.83079503
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01958979
Days Dividend Post Div   395.84
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,779.83079503
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01958979
PURCHASE selling price    0.02057
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01920
   
J-D House profit at report   5607

[cw92]

Is DeprivedMining still the account to send purchase shares for transfer?

[twentyseventy]

Is DeprivedMining still the account to send purchase shares for transfer?

Sure is

[Deprived]

Well here's today's report - though BTC-TC is only working sporadically at present, so it may be a while before the divdends actually get processed.  I've yet to transfer today's management fee (can't due to the site failing) but this report represents what things will look like once everything's caught up.

I'll put PURCHASE back up at the new price as soon as I notice everything has been sorted (which may take a while as the dividends will likely fail to process so will have to be redone later).

Sold   326
Swapped   0
Total   326
Price   0.02061
Total   6.71886
Less Fee   6.70542228
Man Fee   0.201162668

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    2,147.29407795
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.3380138
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.67767777
Just-Dice Balance    244.70000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,786.71976952
   
Outstanding MINING   131821
Outstanding SELLING   131821
Outstanding PURCHASE   10407
Effective Units   142228
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00004949
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00247443
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00494886
365 days (Buyback)    0.01806334
405 days (IPO)    0.02004288
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01979544
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02029033
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,779.68110481
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01954384
Days Dividend Post Div   394.92
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,779.68110481
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01954384
PURCHASE selling price    0.02052
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01915
   
J-D House profit at report   5683

[Rannasha]

Will the orderbook for SELLING be cleared for the next dividend payment (on sunday) again?

[Deprived]

Will the orderbook for SELLING be cleared for the next dividend payment (on sunday) again?

If there's any significant number of bids that would be above new PURCHASE price, yes (and I expect there will be).

[Deprived]

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.

[keeron]

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.

noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING?

[Deprived]

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.

noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING?

You need to know what next difficulty will be to do that.  Dividend will be all capital above that needed to retain 400 days dividend for mining at the new difficulty.  Im not home and on my mobile so cant give even a ballpark figure for it.

[FloatesMcgoates]

Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.

[Rannasha]

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.

noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING?

There are several ways to compute the next SELLING dividend.

One way is to look at the current daily MINING dividend (0.00004949) and the number of dividend-days worth of NAV left ("Days dividend post div", 394.92), both stats from the report.

Now you need 2 additional numbers: the estimate for the next difficulty increase and the number of days (or more precise: MINING dividend payouts) until the next diff-change. You can fetch these from allchains.info. At the time of this post, the difficulty increase estimate is 29.4%, with the jump happening in 17 hours, so 1 more day of MINING dividends left at current difficulty. We subtract this upcoming payout from the "Days dividend post div" value to obtain 393.92.

The number of days of MINING dividend left after the difficulty increase will be 29.4% higher than just before the increase, so 393.92 * 1.294 = 509.73. At this point, MINING gets one more dividend at the new daily rate, lowering the NAV to 508.73 days of MINING dividends. If this is more than 410, SELLING will get a dividend large enough to reduce the value back to 400. In this case, SELLING would receive 108.73 days worth of MINING dividend at the rate *after* the difficulty increase. This rate is the current daily dividend divided by 1.294, which is 0.00003825 * (the estimated next MINING daily dividend). So SELLING can expect 108.73 * 0.00003825 = 0.00415892 as dividend.

Shortened, the formula to be used is:
(M / (1 + I)) * ((D - d) / (1 + I) - 401)
(M = current daily MINING dividend, D = "Days dividend post div" from the report, d = number of days until difficulty jump, I = difficulty increase fraction (10% means I = 0.1)). Note that this function doesn't include the check to see if the numbers of dividend-days is above 410.

This estimate is accurate as far as the difficulty prediction is accurate with the exception that it doesn't include increases in the NAV/U from sales and buybacks of PURCHASE or the gains from investments.

[Deprived]

Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.

Sounds about right.  It will be less than last one for sure.

[keeron]

Thank you, this is really grateful (and hopefully others jumping in onto the DMS stock can utilize the info as well)

BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing.  I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment.  Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.

noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING?

There are several ways to compute the next SELLING dividend.

One way is to look at the current daily MINING dividend (0.00004949) and the number of dividend-days worth of NAV left ("Days dividend post div", 394.92), both stats from the report.

Now you need 2 additional numbers: the estimate for the next difficulty increase and the number of days (or more precise: MINING dividend payouts) until the next diff-change. You can fetch these from allchains.info. At the time of this post, the difficulty increase estimate is 29.4%, with the jump happening in 17 hours, so 1 more day of MINING dividends left at current difficulty. We subtract this upcoming payout from the "Days dividend post div" value to obtain 393.92.

The number of days of MINING dividend left after the difficulty increase will be 29.4% higher than just before the increase, so 393.92 * 1.294 = 509.73. At this point, MINING gets one more dividend at the new daily rate, lowering the NAV to 508.73 days of MINING dividends. If this is more than 410, SELLING will get a dividend large enough to reduce the value back to 400. In this case, SELLING would receive 108.73 days worth of MINING dividend at the rate *after* the difficulty increase. This rate is the current daily dividend divided by 1.294, which is 0.00003825 * (the estimated next MINING daily dividend). So SELLING can expect 108.73 * 0.00003825 = 0.00415892 as dividend.

Shortened, the formula to be used is:
(M / (1 + I)) * ((D - d) / (1 + I) - 401)
(M = current daily MINING dividend, D = "Days dividend post div" from the report, d = number of days until difficulty jump, I = difficulty increase fraction (10% means I = 0.1)). Note that this function doesn't include the check to see if the numbers of dividend-days is above 410.

This estimate is accurate as far as the difficulty prediction is accurate with the exception that it doesn't include increases in the NAV/U from sales and buybacks of PURCHASE or the gains from investments.

[joele]

Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.

0.00415 in my calculation based on estimated next difficulty 65M

[FloatesMcgoates]

Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.

0.00415 in my calculation based on estimated next difficulty 65M

My calculation was based off 66M,though 65M appears to be equally likely as of this moment. 

[FloatesMcgoates]

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn

I guess I am extremely lucky to be the only guy that trades this regularly that was on when this whale bought MINING up to .01.

Managed to arb the entire way and clear the SELLING side down to .01 as well. Unfortunately there were not enough SELLING bids to keep up with the way the whale is buying to keep this gravy train rolling

[Bonam]

Dang, my entire holding of MINING just sold at 0.008-0.009... why would someone buy it up so high?

[FloatesMcgoates]

Dang, my entire holding of MINING just sold at 0.008-0.009... why would someone buy it up so high?

Im pretty sure its that guy who had the bid wall of some 35,000 shares at .00385