[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[FloatesMcgoates]

Did Deprived just forget to put up the new shares of DMS.Purchase?

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[vandinn]

Yep, it seems like it. I wonder what it does with the prices.

[Rannasha]

The missing ask-wall for PURCHASE seems to have confused some. There was an ask up at a price where it was economical to just split the PURCHASE into MINING/SELLING (the bot is working fine ^^) and sell both of those into the bids (with the option to gamble for more by putting them up for more and having that ask filled).

Now the best PURCHASE price is above what Depriveds sell-price should be at.

[FloatesMcgoates]

Haha the dividend for selling is tomorrow, today should have been one of the big selling days for Purchase.

[Deprived]

Did Deprived just forget to put up the new shares of DMS.Purchase?

Yeah - that's exactly what happened.

They're up now.

[BitThink]

According to http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it seems some big miners will purposely slow down the hashing just before the difficulty adjusting to reduce the jump? Although I know that does not make much sense, since what they get is based on their hash rate percentage, not the difficulty. Maybe they are just doing that to save the environment.

[GGGGG]

According to http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it seems some big miners will purposely slow down the hashing just before the difficulty adjusting to reduce the jump? Although I know that does not make much sense, since what they get is based on their hash rate percentage, not the difficulty. Maybe they are just doing that to save the environment.

That doesn't make any sense, the difficulty adjustment is based on the previous 2016 blocks and their average rate of discovery, it's not based on whatever the hashrate is right before difficulty jumps.

[ldrgn]

According to http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it seems some big miners will purposely slow down the hashing just before the difficulty adjusting to reduce the jump? Although I know that does not make much sense, since what they get is based on their hash rate percentage, not the difficulty. Maybe they are just doing that to save the environment.

I'm seeing the opposite on that graph.  Looks like the difficulty growth levels out for a day or so after each adjustment.  That would be consistent with people looking at their mining revenue after an adjustment and deciding to shut down their rigs.

[Rannasha]

According to http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it seems some big miners will purposely slow down the hashing just before the difficulty adjusting to reduce the jump? Although I know that does not make much sense, since what they get is based on their hash rate percentage, not the difficulty. Maybe they are just doing that to save the environment.

I'm seeing the opposite on that graph.  Looks like the difficulty growth levels out for a day or so after each adjustment.  That would be consistent with people looking at their mining revenue after an adjustment and deciding to shut down their rigs.

I think both of you are seeing patterns where none exist (which is a typical human thing to do).

There is no incentive to shut down hashing just prior to a difficulty adjustment. The effect on the new difficulty is minimal and you lose more from lost mining time than from the marginally lower difficulty.

Additionally, the only reason to shut down a rig is when the electricity cost outweighs the income. While many rigs may not be profitable anymore in the sense that they won't earn back their purchase price, all ASICs are still making more coins than they cost to keep running, so there's no reason to turn off an ASIC that you have running. And by now, the fraction of GPU-miners is so low that GPUs being turned off isn't going to make a noticeable dent in the charts.

[Deprived]

Have locked PURCHASE slightly earlier than usual so I could audit numbers prior to the SELLING dividend - as there were buybacks of PURCHASE as well as sales I wanted to make sure everything added up.

Dividend is going to be almost exactly what I predicted yesterday - although there were sales and redemptions that was balanced by a bad day on J-D (we lost ~1 BTC).

SELLING will be briefly closed to clear order book and then reopened just before I do the SELLING dividends.

[Deprived]

Sold   3205
Swapped   0
Total   3205
Price   0.02048
Total   65.6384
Less Fee   65.5071232
Man Fee   1.965213696

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    2,292.48224725
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.5971539
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.80549990
Just-Dice Balance    243.55000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,931.14490106
   
Outstanding MINING   144608
Outstanding SELLING   144608
Outstanding PURCHASE   5582
Effective Units   150190
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,925.40106374
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01947800
Days Dividend Post Div   509.31
SELLING Dividend    0.00418048
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,297.53492857
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01529752
PURCHASE selling price    0.01606
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01499
   
J-D House profit at report   5384

[baloo_kiev]

According to http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it seems some big miners will purposely slow down the hashing just before the difficulty adjusting to reduce the jump? Although I know that does not make much sense, since what they get is based on their hash rate percentage, not the difficulty. Maybe they are just doing that to save the environment.

I'm seeing the opposite on that graph.  Looks like the difficulty growth levels out for a day or so after each adjustment.  That would be consistent with people looking at their mining revenue after an adjustment and deciding to shut down their rigs.

I think both of you are seeing patterns where none exist (which is a typical human thing to do).

There is no incentive to shut down hashing just prior to a difficulty adjustment. The effect on the new difficulty is minimal and you lose more from lost mining time than from the marginally lower difficulty.

Additionally, the only reason to shut down a rig is when the electricity cost outweighs the income. While many rigs may not be profitable anymore in the sense that they won't earn back their purchase price, all ASICs are still making more coins than they cost to keep running, so there's no reason to turn off an ASIC that you have running. And by now, the fraction of GPU-miners is so low that GPUs being turned off isn't going to make a noticeable dent in the charts.

I guess hashrate reduces slightly because a part of miners swithes to PPCoin for a day or two.

[Deprived]

Sold   13644
Swapped   0
Total   13644
Price   0.01606
Total   219.12264
Less Fee   218.6843947
Man Fee   6.560531842

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1870.996585
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.7282228
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.87015028
Just-Dice Balance    243.74341540
TOTAL ASSETS    2,510.04837368
   
Outstanding MINING   156881
Outstanding SELLING   156881
Outstanding PURCHASE   6953
Effective Units   163834
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,503.78273786
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01528244
Days Dividend Post Div   399.61
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,503.78273786
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01528244
PURCHASE selling price    0.01605
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01498
   
J-D House profit at report   5430

[Franktank]

I'm surprised people aren't buying more into this. With the current prices of DMS.MINING and expected hashrate increase, there are still hearty profits to be made.

[Deprived]

Sold   3597
Swapped   0
Total   3597
Price   0.01605
Total   57.73185
Less Fee   57.6163863
Man Fee   1.728491589

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1920.619559
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.8604451
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.93536953
Just-Dice Balance    243.80000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,559.92537390
   
Outstanding MINING   160934
Outstanding SELLING   160934
Outstanding PURCHASE   6497
Effective Units   167431
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,553.52217511
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01525119
Days Dividend Post Div   398.79
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,553.52217511
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01525119
PURCHASE selling price    0.01601
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01495
   
J-D House profit at report   5449

[Deprived]

Sold   1438
Swapped   0
Total   1438
Price   0.01601
Total   23.02238
Less Fee   22.97633524
Man Fee   0.689290057

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1936.504133
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.9282483
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.0003511
Just-Dice Balance    244.10000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,576.24273245
   
Outstanding MINING   162263
Outstanding SELLING   162263
Outstanding PURCHASE   6606
Effective Units   168869
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,569.78453906
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01521762
Days Dividend Post Div   397.91
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,569.78453906
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01521762
PURCHASE selling price    0.01598
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01491
   
J-D House profit at report   5521

[Deprived]

Sold   5243
Swapped   0
Total   5243
Price   0.01598
Total   83.78314
Less Fee   83.61557372
Man Fee   2.508467212

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   2011.153756
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   200.1806662
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.0651211
Coinlenders Cash   3.93046117
Just-Dice Balance    243.39000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,650.43000469
   
Outstanding MINING   165679
Outstanding SELLING   165679
Outstanding PURCHASE   8433
Effective Units   174112
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   65,750,060
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00003824
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00191219
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00382438
365 days (Buyback)    0.01395899
405 days (IPO)    0.01548874
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01529752
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01567996
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,643.77129903
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01518431
Days Dividend Post Div   397.04
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,643.77129903
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01518431
PURCHASE selling price    0.01594
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01488
   
J-D House profit at report   5353

One of our CDs on coinlenders matured and a new one was bought.  The interest from the old one is listed as cash there as I haven't withdrawn it yet - as there's 2 withdrawal fees now (one to withdraw to inupts.io then a 2nd to withdraw back to BTC-TC).

The terms of coinlenders have changed - there's no longer a personal guarantee on the loans.  As there's no guarantee AND there's no disclosure of assets backing the deposits (and they can be used for speculation not just for safe loans) I'm not certain Coinlenders even meets our investment criteria any more.

[Deprived]

Further to the above, TradeFortress has announced that Coinlenders is closing - and that the current site is only a demo, but one which has the same functionality as a real site would (a similarish approach to BTC-TC's "it's just a game" stance - though actually a worse one from an investor's perspective).

I was going to raise a vote on whether to stay invested or not - but that's pointless now as it's closing.  We'll pull our coins out when the CDs mature.  I couldn't care less if he wants to rename interest to "fee rebates" etc - it's the lack of any visible backing for deposits that's the real killer.  Without any personal guarantee to repay deposits I'd want to see some form of accounts and know to what extent capital exceeded deposits to allow for losses without depositors being impacted.

And I'm never impressed by a change in the TOS and/or contract for something without any notification or option to exit under the old (accepted) terms.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I definitely understand. If you'd like to pull the CDs right now I'm happy to oblige, just let me know. Don't read the changes the wrong way through.

[Lohoris]

I couldn't care less if he wants to rename interest to "fee rebates" etc - it's the lack of any visible backing for deposits that's the real killer. Without any personal guarantee to repay deposits I'd want to see some form of accounts and know to what extent capital exceeded deposits to allow for losses without depositors being impacted.

I also think that this whole "it's fictional" thing isn't going to provide any real protection whatsoever, and if someone thinks it does, it is a dangerous sign.