[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[eltopo]

Yeah... the usual suspects... 

[FloatesMcgoates]

Yeah... the usual suspects... 

Well some guy actually just bought up to .031 so if you had asks up you didn't miss anything

[twentyseventy]

Yeah... the usual suspects... 

Well some guy actually just bought up to .031 so if you had asks up you didn't miss anything

Yeah, was very surprised to see that... someone that doesn't understand the NAV/U aspect perhaps?

[eltopo]

Some more of those 20%+ diff increases and even this guy will profit... I think if you're not into trading, you can't do anything wrong with buying SELLING at market price (so far). No matter at what time and price you bought SELLING in the past weeks, if you sum up paid dividends and current market price, you are always up at least a few % (or more). This could change of course if we see some diff jumps < 10%.

And now lets sit back and watch the other mining assets drop another 20-30% in the next hours... 

[twentyseventy]

Some more of those 20%+ diff increases and even this guy will profit... I think if you're not into trading, you can't do anything wrong with buying SELLING at market price (so far). No matter at what time and price you bought SELLING in the past weeks, if you sum up paid dividends and current market price, you are always up at least a few % (or more). This could change of course if we see some diff jumps < 10%.

And now lets sit back and watch the other mining assets drop another 20-30% in the next hours... 

Very true; I'm valuing MINING at .00875 at the moment, so even .031 for SELLING would still manage a small profit at that amount.

[shadallion]

Ok boys help me out here.  I just got the dividend payout, but now of course the price has dropped sharply.  In fact I have essentially lost money, since the dividend is less than the % share drop.

Has it been the trend in the past for the share price to regain it's value relatively quickly afterwards?

[Rannasha]

Ok boys help me out here.  I just got the dividend payout, but now of course the price has dropped sharply.  In fact I have essentially lost money, since the dividend is less than the % share drop.

Has it been the trend in the past for the share price to regain it's value relatively quickly afterwards?

Impossible to say really. This has only been the third dividend payment. The first one was a bit bigger than this one, but prices were quite volatile then since DMS was pretty new. The last payment was rather small, so the price didn't move much. And that's all there is for past history.

[Mabsark]

Ok boys help me out here.  I just got the dividend payout, but now of course the price has dropped sharply.  In fact I have essentially lost money, since the dividend is less than the % share drop.

Has it been the trend in the past for the share price to regain it's value relatively quickly afterwards?

The last trade at the time of writing this was 0.028249 BTC and it was trading between 0.028 and 0.031 for most of the past round. So, it hasn't really lost much value at all.

[twentyseventy]

Ok boys help me out here.  I just got the dividend payout, but now of course the price has dropped sharply.  In fact I have essentially lost money, since the dividend is less than the % share drop.

Has it been the trend in the past for the share price to regain it's value relatively quickly afterwards?

The dividend paid instantly decreases the value of SELLING by exactly that much. So, if the price is .035 and a dividend of .01 is paid out, the new underlying value of SELLING is .025.

If the price drops more than the dividend amount then, yes, you are out some money. SELLING is a long-term bet that people are overpaying for MINING. Basically, you need to figure out what you think is a fair price for MINING and, once you subtract that price from the current DMS.PURCHASE price, you'll have an idea of what you think is a fair price for SELLING (which may be different for each investor).

The previous posts in this thread really shed a lot of light on how to value this security. It takes some time, but do read it all-

[Deprived]

Sold   6308
Swapped   0
Total   6308
Price    0.040366
Total   254.628728
Less Fee   254.1194705
Man Fee   7.623584116

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1411.442945
12380 LTC-ATF.B1    123.80000000
Coinlenders CD    201.88925251
Just-Dice Balance    107.63591754
TOTAL ASSETS    1,844.76811521
   
Outstanding MINING   47031
Outstanding SELLING   47031
Outstanding PURCHASE   854
Effective Units   47885
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   26,162,876
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00009611
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00480554
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00961107
365 days (Buyback)    0.03508041
405 days (IPO)    0.03892484
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03844428
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03940539
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,840.16585387
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03842886
Days Dividend Post Div   399.84
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,840.16585387
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03842886
PURCHASE selling price    0.04035030
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03766028

J-D balance is down a bit - in fact it's moving around a lot right now as there's been 2 gamblers making large bets : have seen it as low as 105 and as high as 110 in last few hours.  The high volume of PURCHASE sales more than made up for that - meaning most of today's MINING dividend was covered (days dividend only dropped to 399.84 rather than to 399_.  We also sold some more LTC-ATF.B1 off at ~15% markup to face.

Got to go out for a few hours shortly.  When I get back I'll look at increasing our J-D investment (keeping it below 10%) and a 2nd Coinlenders CD (keeping it below 20%).

[eltopo]

...and now look at J-D balance again... 

[Deprived]

...and now look at J-D balance again... 

Yeah our J-D balance is now slightly below what we originally invested - a whale got lucky and won best part of 3K BTC.  J-D is high theoretical return but high variance too - fine for 10% of our BR but it can't be increased too far or we'd risk losing funds that could be owed to MINING (if diffiuclty rises slow down then I'd have to consider reducing it further).

Have just done LTC-ATF.B1 dividends - after conversion back to BTC DMS got 0.75762183 BTC.  Also sold a few hundred more of them earlier - this time at 20% above face value.  Am regretting let DMS have my personal LTC-ATF.B1 at face value now

Am sending 60 more BTC to J-D (takes it to a bit over 8% of capital) and also buying another 100 BTC Coinlenders bond (takes it to about 18% of capital).  That's assuming I can figure out how to use the annoying inputs.io thing that we have to deposit via now (I never intentionally use any sort of online wallet that pays no interest - CP risk without benefit isn't my thing and saving 1 hour on transfers isn't enough to justify the risk to me).

[vandinn]

Deprived, are you sure the Just-Dice site is secure and the bets were just lucky? If you are, I will be putting all my available money in there as it really is starting to look interesting there... (what was 10% loss a day for me will be 3% gain a day in the long run if the bets continue)

[Deprived]

Deprived, are you sure the Just-Dice site is secure and the bets were just lucky? If you are, I will be putting all my available money in there as it really is starting to look interesting there... (what was 10% loss a day for me will be 3% gain a day in the long run if the bets continue)

I can't be absolutely certain - but with the bets that were made today the resulting loss is an entirely reasonable outcome and there's no reason at all to suspect foul play.  The guy who one made claims about having found a loophole - but from his semi-explanation it's just him not understanding math properly, getting lucky and believing that confirms his theory.

That's why I'm still sending more of DMS' funds there - and also moving some of my own in  there.  With +EV things like being the house I'm NEVER that fussed about actual results - jus about the EV and the degree of variance expected.  The level of variance at JD is higher than would be ideal - but that's pretty inevitable when results will be determined by a handful of whales, with the steady profit from the smaller fish just background noise.

[vandinn]

All I am concerned about is security as I do not understand technology that well so I cannot be sure all the bets are played with the intended rules. I understand EV and variance. If there are no signs of foul play, nothing could have been better for us - investors - than what just happened today. (less competition, more bets)

[Deprived]

All I am concerned about is security as I do not understand technology that well so I cannot be sure all the bets are played with the intended rules. I understand EV and variance. If there are no signs of foul play, nothing could have been better for us - investors - than what just happened today. (less competition, more bets)

Yeah it's unfortunate short-term but great advertising for the site longer term.  There's no signs of foul play.  I watched it for a bit before doing our daily report.  Another whale had gone up a lot then lost it all back with interest (think he was up best part of 1k at one point before losing it all).  Then the 2nd one showed up and profit was up and down like mad.  I left J-D before making our report - and of course that's when he finally had a decent length winning streak and won his money.  It was just the standard thing of people believing that by varying bet sizes and looking for patterns in rolls they can beat a house edge.  And when someone does win - and it reinforces their belief - that's great for the house as they'll tell everyone else about it.

I view the losses today as pretty cheap advertising.

[joele]

Deprived, how come BTC Balance (BTC-TC) went down to -(84+254) in just one day?

[FloatesMcgoates]

Deprived, how come BTC Balance (BTC-TC) went down to -(84+254) in just one day?

As stated earlier, he put more into investments

Edit: Looks like im a moron

[Deprived]

Deprived, how come BTC Balance (BTC-TC) went down to -(84+254) in just one day?

As stated earlier, he put more into investments

No, those haven't gone out yet (EDIT:  I did the withdrawals shortly after my post aboit it but burnside hasn't processed them yet).

It's to do with the 320+ BTC dividend paid to SELLING yesterday lol.  The dividends come from BTC balance - not out of thin air.

[joele]

Deprived, how come BTC Balance (BTC-TC) went down to -(84+254) in just one day?

As stated earlier, he put more into investments

No, those haven't gone out yet (EDIT:  I did the withdrawals shortly after my post aboit it but burnside hasn't processed them yet).

It's to do with the 320+ BTC dividend paid to SELLING yesterday lol.  The dividends come from BTC balance - not out of thin air.

Copy that, thanks