ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[empoweoqwj]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

lol

Ive been wondering why AM shares have held up in the .28 range at all, I can understand if people don't want to realize their paper losses and not sell, thats easy

but what I don't understand is why there is liquidity any where between .03 btc/share and .28 btc/share

Where do you get the 100 Th/s from?

FC clearly stated Gen3 would deliver "at launch" between 2 and 20 Ph/s

[Endlessa]

Looking at the genesis block, the network hash rate will be 132.6 Ph/s on 14th April. If AM had 100 Th/s at that time then:

* AM would have 0.1 * 100 / 132.6 = 0.075% of the network hash rate.
* With 50,400 BTC mined per round, AM would get 37.8 BTC per round.
* With 37.8 BTC mined per round by AM, that would equate to 0.0000945 BTC per round per share

If we then plug in the numbers for AM's proposed batch size of 2-20 Ph/s and assume that this is put together by 14th May, using genesis block again gives the network hash rate to be 263.8 Ph/s. This gives the following:

* 2 Ph/s would represent 0.76% of the network, which is worth 383.04 BTC per round and 0.0009576 BTC per round per share.
* 20 Ph/s would represent 7.58% of the network, which is worth 3820.32 BTC per round or 0.0095508 BTC per round per share.

Let's say that their batch size is 20 Ph/s. A large proportion of that will be for sale and not go into their mines. I'd say around 0.005 BTC per round per share should be expected after the new chips start mining.

So, it's unlikely dividends will increase above what they are now.

It is even more unlikely that AM stays at 100TH forever. It is possible that AM delivers earlier than april/the competition and hardware sales could equate to more profit than mining with that amount of hardware.

I hear where you're coming from, but the next generation of hardware isn't being released into a first-to-market environment.  It will be valued near break-even or better, unless none of these other companies ever do anything.  the days are near gone where you'll be getting 10 btc for a miner that will only ever give you 0.5 btc.   So, mining or not, the amount of hardware hash manufactured will track closely regardless of if you mine with it or if you sell it. . . . unless the plan is to sell non-professional low hash hardware to fan boys and noobs.

[Draino]

so what's with the orderbooks for the passthroughs on havelock?

looks like someone is posting bids/asks within 10 satoshis of each other, pretty odd

[MilkyLep]

so what's with the orderbooks for the passthroughs on havelock?

looks like someone is posting bids/asks within 10 satoshis of each other, pretty odd

I havent looked but it could be someones bot(s).

[empoweoqwj]

There's a sell wall at 0.310000

[willBTC]

There's a sell wall at 0.310000

it's have been eated.

[empoweoqwj]

There's a sell wall at 0.310000

it's have been eated.

Yeah, lol, was just going to be report its been eaten .....

Very good sign

[freedomno1]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come 

[empoweoqwj]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come 

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

[freedomno1]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

[empoweoqwj]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this is range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

IMHO, the price is stable (well increasing) not because of dividends (which have shrunk considerably the last two weeks) but because people can see Gen3 coming ever closer.

In a few weeks, AM won't be returning anywhere near 10% but the share price will still be 0.30 or more. Just a prediction

[Mabsark]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

Don't you mean 5%?

[freedomno1]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

Don't you mean 5%?

10 But I'm going off Havelock

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/funds.php

AM1   14293   ฿0.30989899   ฿39.2   ฿169   ฿4429   ฿0.0006      10.28%   No
AM100   331915   ฿0.00300000   ฿2.8   ฿25   ฿996   ฿0.00000582      10.09%   No

[Mabsark]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

Don't you mean 5%?

10 But I'm going off Havelock

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/funds.php

AM1   14293   ฿0.30989899   ฿39.2   ฿169   ฿4429   ฿0.0006      10.28%   No
AM100   331915   ฿0.00300000   ฿2.8   ฿25   ฿996   ฿0.00000582      10.09%   No

It won't be 10% after dividends are paid. By the end of the month, it'll probably be under 1%.

[freedomno1]

True enough but just as Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results
Future Dividends are not quoted before they come out 
Shouldn't be long now till we get the weekly amount though and your point is valid difficulty is still rising after all

[Mabsark]

True enough but just as Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results
Future Dividends are not quoted before they come out 
Shouldn't be long now till we get the weekly amount though and your point is valid difficulty is still rising after all

I just don't see why share price would remain stable. Divs are likely to fall by a factor of 60 before the new chips are mining and afterwards are only likely to be around what they was last week. Then they'll fall just as fast as what we're seeing now and the cycle will repeat.

At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years to recover the cost. So, if it would take 10 years with a constant yield, how long would it take with dividends decreasing by 20% each week?

If you do the maths, you'll see that a share price of 0.3 BTC is simply unsustainable. Everyone buying in now is going to lose a lot of money.

[chriswilmer]

Well Happy New Year Speculators Lets All Speculate Away in the Year to Come  

Since you ask ..... I'm now confident that the bottom has been reached ... presuming there's no major bad news out of AM. Its 2014. Events that sounded a long time in the future back in 2013 now suddenly seem much closer

I'm curious how many peoples New Year's Resolution is to try bitcoin and how many of those go for AM shares
Pending no serious disasters I'll join your bandwagon and say this is range level is fairly stable as it is hard to find a fund that pays a weekly dividend at 10% current yield that is trusted.
With a few exceptions for some companies that give monthly returns the yield is fairly competitive.
Looking forward to the interesting year to come not just for AM but for Bitcoin in General
( Alts, litecoin mining speculation, super powerful mining buildings, alternative financing etc.)

IMHO, the price is stable (well increasing) not because of dividends (which have shrunk considerably the last two weeks) but because people can see Gen3 coming ever closer.

In a few weeks, AM won't be returning anywhere near 10% but the share price will still be 0.30 or more. Just a prediction

+1

[Jutarul]

At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years months to recover the cost.

FTFY

[Rival]

At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years months to recover the cost.

FTFY

True:)

Math. It's not just a good idea. Yeah, 100% return in 10 months, no one will ever accept that kind of crappy return.

[Mabsark]

At 0.3 BTC per share and a guaranteed constant yield of 10%, it would take 10 years months to recover the cost.

FTFY

True:)

Math. It's not just a good idea. Yeah, 100% return in 10 months, no one will ever accept that kind of crappy return.

For those too lazy to actually do such basic math, using the current share price of 0.32 BTC and dividends of 0.00081605 gives 393 weeks before recovering that 0.32 BTC, which is 7.5 years. That's assuming constant divs which is completely unrealistic.