ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[jimmothy]

Seems like a lot of people are assuming that the Gen 3 will be a success.

It is still too early to make such a call considering that the Gen 2 had to be cancelled due to the under performing chip design.

Even if the Gen 3 chip does perform, there are still 3-4 months before they are implemented in functional miners, and that is a very long time in the Bitcoin world.

Could be 2 months till a working product after tape-out. Also I thought gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked so much more promising. Knc is probably the biggest competitor and they will probably ship at the end of q2.

Gen 2 was skipped/cancelled due to the poor performance. Have a look back at friedcat's posts.

Source?

[BitCsByBit]

Seems like a lot of people are assuming that the Gen 3 will be a success.

It is still too early to make such a call considering that the Gen 2 had to be cancelled due to the under performing chip design.

Even if the Gen 3 chip does perform, there are still 3-4 months before they are implemented in functional miners, and that is a very long time in the Bitcoin world.

Could be 2 months till a working product after tape-out. Also I thought gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked so much more promising. Knc is probably the biggest competitor and they will probably ship at the end of q2.

Gen 2 was skipped/cancelled due to the poor performance. Have a look back at friedcat's posts.

Source?

I found this:

so Gen2 is skipped?

I'd also be very interested to hear the answer to this.

It's frustrating seeing responses which indicate that all the questions in this thread are being read, yet ignored.

Yes, it was skipped. FC mentioned this in the past. Apparently the performance wasn't as good as they hoped and they just decided to move on... probably a good move.

According to friedcat Gen2 is not worthwhile for 2 reasons:
1) Gen2 would come out relatively late due to some factors outside of AM's control
2) Gen3 shows promising results and the roll-out seems to be better/more reliably organized

Thus funds are better to be spent on Gen3 hardware. The production schedule will depend on a risk/reward ratio determined by friedcat. Deviations from the schedule need to be anticipated when rolling out a new product technology, so hedge accordingly when speculating on AM.

I'm surprised you are asking as not too long ago you said this:

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

[jimmothy]

Seems like a lot of people are assuming that the Gen 3 will be a success.

It is still too early to make such a call considering that the Gen 2 had to be cancelled due to the under performing chip design.

Even if the Gen 3 chip does perform, there are still 3-4 months before they are implemented in functional miners, and that is a very long time in the Bitcoin world.

Could be 2 months till a working product after tape-out. Also I thought gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked so much more promising. Knc is probably the biggest competitor and they will probably ship at the end of q2.

Gen 2 was skipped/cancelled due to the poor performance. Have a look back at friedcat's posts.

Source?

I found this:

so Gen2 is skipped?

I'd also be very interested to hear the answer to this.

It's frustrating seeing responses which indicate that all the questions in this thread are being read, yet ignored.

Yes, it was skipped. FC mentioned this in the past. Apparently the performance wasn't as good as they hoped and they just decided to move on... probably a good move.

According to friedcat Gen2 is not worthwhile for 2 reasons:
1) Gen2 would come out relatively late due to some factors outside of AM's control
2) Gen3 shows promising results and the roll-out seems to be better/more reliably organized

Thus funds are better to be spent on Gen3 hardware. The production schedule will depend on a risk/reward ratio determined by friedcat. Deviations from the schedule need to be anticipated when rolling out a new product technology, so hedge accordingly when speculating on AM.

I'm surprised you are asking as not too long ago you said this:

The reason we are seeing such a price dip is because gen2 chips from AM were skipped which lead to a long gap between new hardware. The reason it was skipped was due to unsatisfactory performance and FC believes gen3 is more promising. Also by skipping gen2, gen3 will arrive sooner.

Exactly. Gen2 was skipped because gen3 looked more promising. The only reason it was deemed unsatisfactory performance was because it was compared to gen3.

It is not like somewhere along the design process gen2 completely failed. I believe delays are what made gen2 impractical and it is much more likely that delays happen with gen3 than design failure.

[BitCsByBit]

Really?

How about skipping Gen 3 because Gen 4 looks more promising? Where is the logic there, especially considering the 6 months gap between the generations with nothing to fill the gap?

[Kosmatos]

Gen 3 will be the king of all chips in the market at least in 2014.   
And Asicminer will lead the way again , but maybe not in ming , Friedcat may focus on sales hardwares and chips.

Where do you get this information, or at least, what information do you have on "Gen 3" which leads you do say it will... Oh wait, you're pulling this out of your ass. 

[minerpumpkin]

Gen 3 will be the king of all chips in the market at least in 2014.   
And Asicminer will lead the way again , but maybe not in ming , Friedcat may focus on sales hardwares and chips.

Where do you get this information, or at least, what information do you have on "Gen 3" which leads you do say it will... Oh wait, you're pulling this out of your ass. 

After all, this is the AM Speculation Thread... 

[Rival]

Somebody knows something. Shares are getting gobbled up on Havelock on no news and crappy dividends. If you were waiting for the prices to decline further you may have waited just a little too long.

In the parlance of my generation: "Blue Horseshoe loves ASICminer".

[LainZ]

The first step in a bull movement in a stock is to advertise the fact that there is a bull movement on. Sounds silly, doesn't it? Well, think a moment. It isn't as silly as it
sounded, is it? The most effective way to advertise what, in effect, are your honourable intentions is to make the stock active and strong. After all is said and done, the greatest publicity agent in the wide world is the ticker, and by far the best advertising medium is the tape. I do not need to put out any literature for my clients. I do not have to inform the daily press as to the value of the stock or to work the financial reviews for notices about the company's prospects. Neither do I have to get a following. I accomplish all these highly desirable things by merely making the stock active. When there is activity there is a synchronous demand for explanations; and that means, of course, that the necessary reason for publication supply themselves without the slightest aid from me.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/large/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator_Jesse_Livermore.pdf P.195

Is there a bull movement on? :p

[Fordee]

Somebody knows something. Shares are getting gobbled up on Havelock on no news and crappy dividends. If you were waiting for the prices to decline further you may have waited just a little too long.

In the parlance of my generation: "Blue Horseshoe loves ASICminer".

+1

[minerpumpkin]

Maybe a surprise premature tape-out that was successful. That would be sweet!
And glad I got at least a few shares sub 0.3....

[dnaleor]

bought my shares in the auction for 0.32BTC/piece. I am happy now after the depressing downtrend the day after I received my shares

I am a long term investor anyway.

[elasticband]

bought my shares in the auction for 0.32BTC/piece. I am happy now after the depressing downtrend the day after I received my shares

I am a long term investor anyway.

Good buy sir

I have been penny averaging my holdings as sadly i am sitting at a loss, but with the volume of shares i picked up bellow or around 0.3 I have reduced my average a significant amount.

[empoweoqwj]

The first step in a bull movement in a stock is to advertise the fact that there is a bull movement on. Sounds silly, doesn't it? Well, think a moment. It isn't as silly as it
sounded, is it? The most effective way to advertise what, in effect, are your honourable intentions is to make the stock active and strong. After all is said and done, the greatest publicity agent in the wide world is the ticker, and by far the best advertising medium is the tape. I do not need to put out any literature for my clients. I do not have to inform the daily press as to the value of the stock or to work the financial reviews for notices about the company's prospects. Neither do I have to get a following. I accomplish all these highly desirable things by merely making the stock active. When there is activity there is a synchronous demand for explanations; and that means, of course, that the necessary reason for publication supply themselves without the slightest aid from me.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/large/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator_Jesse_Livermore.pdf P.195

Is there a bull movement on? :p

People are buying because they see Gen3 happening soon and see it as having good risk / reward ratios at current stock prices. I know that book is great but ......

[freedomno1]

To be Honest I snuck my auction shares at 0.35 into Dealcoin shares to get the dividends while waiting on AM movement then saw them go up 100% in a matter of days, fun stuff.
However I will need to reposition into AM sometime in the next few weeks myself as the market appears to be moving in anticipation of Tapeout
It's not that long a wait just a week or two to go as people prepare in anticipation
And not the BFL Two Weeks till Tapeout so fun stuff.

[Zubilica]

as i said before , no on is selling now that why price is rising so fast.

[dnaleor]

or insider information trading 

[avabit]

or insider information trading 

it's either insider trading or people just taking risky bets

[dnaleor]

0.601 now! 

Still hodling for a while Maybe sell one of my 2 shares for an ammount close to 1 bTC

[Mabsark]

or insider information trading 

it's either insider trading or people just taking risky bets

Certain AM shareholders have been telling people that gen 3 chips will be out this month. There's going to be a lot of disappointed come Feb.

[dnaleor]

0.644