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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 372686 times)
gog1
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July 30, 2013, 03:01:42 PM
 #1281

if JD is completely open about the math, and there is still a demand..... it seems no different than the current implementation of JD. doog is completely open about the math, and there is still a demand for the site.

let the user determine what is best for them.

additionally, insurance could be another revenue stream for doog, and reduce the variance in his income as well.
nope:

1) if insuring was free, then implementing it would be a waste

2) if it had a cost, it would be a disservice to users: a way to con them into giving us more money without real benefits

3) if we did it anyway, we might end up into a paradox where if a user loses (x-1) times in a row, it's better for him to lose his next bet than to win it


For point 3, since the game is "random", a user cannot intentionally cause a loss.

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wolverine.ks
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July 30, 2013, 03:09:44 PM
 #1282

nope:

1) if insuring was free, then implementing it would be a waste

2) if it had a cost, it would be a disservice to users: a way to con them into giving us more money without real benefits

3) if we did it anyway, we might end up into a paradox where if a user loses (x-1) times in a row, it's better for him to lose his next bet than to win it

im not clear on what you mean with number 1. do you mean the house pays out the same as expected losses with no fee on top? that wouldnt be any different that allowing people to place 0btc bets, right? and people do that all the time.

it appears as if your 2nd point applies to JD as a whole as well. it has a negative expected value, it benefits some and costs others, the math is explained completely, and its all just for fun anyway. insurance is the exact same thing. As far as benefits, thats up to the user to decide for themselves.

there may be times when people benefit more if they lose the next bet, but isnt that kinda a cool scenario? sometime people are trying to win on the next roll and sometime they are trying to lose...that sounds really fun and interesting to me. either way, they dont have control over the roll, so whats the difference?



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July 30, 2013, 05:48:49 PM
 #1283

16
is quite lean
so go for 32
you'll surely hew

if that didn't work
don't go berserk
jump to 64
it's an easy chore

missed that
go for a clap
raise the stake
and bet 128

oh fuck
such a bad luck
now it's two-five-six
this i need to fix

great, maximum bet
i've already lost a corvette
now y'all look at me
coz this you gotta see
yolo one, yolo two, yolo three

This needs some love. Smiley

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trout
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July 30, 2013, 05:55:55 PM
 #1284

I made some simple calculations to find how many bets (of the same size) you need
to be 95%-confident that the house is positive, on the 1% edge.
And it's around 15000.

on JD of course bets are of unequal (and dependent) sizes, but only big ones are relevant.
So if  whales come and start making those 300+ rolls, they better make at least 15000 of them.

Gives you an idea of how long-term your investment should be.
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July 30, 2013, 06:45:29 PM
 #1285

16
is quite lean
so go for 32
you'll surely hew

if that didn't work
don't go berserk
jump to 64
it's an easy chore

missed that
go for a clap
raise the stake
and bet 128

oh fuck
such a bad luck
now it's two-five-six
this i need to fix

great, maximum bet
i've already lost a corvette
now y'all look at me
coz this you gotta see
yolo one, yolo two, yolo three

This needs some love. Smiley

Dito Smiley
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July 30, 2013, 07:01:37 PM
 #1286

I made some simple calculations to find how many bets (of the same size) you need
to be 95%-confident that the house is positive, on the 1% edge.
And it's around 15000.

on JD of course bets are of unequal (and dependent) sizes, but only big ones are relevant.
So if  whales come and start making those 300+ rolls, they better make at least 15000 of them.

Gives you an idea of how long-term your investment should be.

That's very interesting, thanks for sharing.
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July 30, 2013, 07:04:52 PM
 #1287

I made some simple calculations to find how many bets (of the same size) you need
to be 95%-confident that the house is positive, on the 1% edge.
And it's around 15000.

on JD of course bets are of unequal (and dependent) sizes, but only big ones are relevant.
So if  whales come and start making those 300+ rolls, they better make at least 15000 of them.

Gives you an idea of how long-term your investment should be.

95% = 2 SD

For anyone following the 2 Standard Deviation theory around here.

trout
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July 30, 2013, 07:38:07 PM
 #1288

I made some simple calculations to find how many bets (of the same size) you need
to be 95%-confident that the house is positive, on the 1% edge.
And it's around 15000.

on JD of course bets are of unequal (and dependent) sizes, but only big ones are relevant.
So if  whales come and start making those 300+ rolls, they better make at least 15000 of them.

Gives you an idea of how long-term your investment should be.

95% = 2 SD

For anyone following the 2 Standard Deviation theory around here.

doesn't answer the same question, but yeah it's about  95%   as well
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July 31, 2013, 02:35:59 AM
 #1289

I can do 15000 rolls of the same size. (what i've been doing lately, actually)... I just gave 10 BTC profit to the site a couple days ago, but I intend to take that back. hehehe. (disclaimer: Dabs is not an investor at the moment.)

64blocks.com Social Multiplayer Dice (Gambling) - Escrow Service (Services) - GPG ID: 32AD7565, OTC ID: Dabs

All messages concerning escrow or with bitcoin addresses are GPG signed. Please verify.
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July 31, 2013, 06:10:22 AM
 #1290

I can do 15000 rolls of the same size. (what i've been doing lately, actually)... I just gave 10 BTC profit to the site a couple days ago, but I intend to take that back. hehehe. (disclaimer: Dabs is not an investor at the moment.)

Doing 15000 rolls of the same size and chance has an expected value that is 15000 times that of a single roll.

So unless you found a single roll with a positive expectation, this doesn't sound like a good idea.

Disclaimer: I'm relying on facts in this analysis.  Not magic, or dragons.  So it may not apply to you.

stephwen
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July 31, 2013, 07:37:37 AM
 #1291

Don't discourage him from playing, it's good for investors. Smiley
supermono
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July 31, 2013, 08:10:46 PM
 #1292

I realize Just-dice has a lot of variance, and I'm not going to be upset with the site if I log in for a monthly review and see at a glance that my 0.14 BTC invested is down 0.001 at the moment (for example), but I very well might get upset if I have to do several minutes of calculations just to find that out.

Just to be clear, are you happy with what's currently shown?
Yes, I am. In the case of Just-dice, I know how much I put in originally, so as long as I can see at a glance the current value of my investment I am happy, and the (profit) column is a nice extra to aid in figuring out my profitibility at a glance without needing to do any calculations myself, especially if at some point in the future I forget or lose my records of how much I invested. I have a longer wish list for exchanges like bitfunder, etc. with more than one asset (in which case, I want them to automatically total the value of all my different assets for me so that I don't have to do it manually), but since just-dice basically is just one asset, that keeps it simple.

Congratulations on producing a great site! Keep up the good work! And congratulations also on your resolution for that issue that came up a week or so ago--I would have hated to see you get frustrated because of that and lose interest in maintaining the site. In the future, if there is ever any kind of glitch and my account gets credited with anything it wasn't supposed to, please don't hesitate to roll back the transaction. I'm sure my bank would do the same without any second thoughts.

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August 01, 2013, 12:20:02 AM
 #1293

http://www.npr.org/2013/01/29/170588505/scientists-discover-dung-beetles-use-the-milky-way-for-gps

I need to get some dung beetles. They might know the outcome of the next roll.. magic seeds, dragon babies, and dung beetles watching the milky way galaxy.

"Okay, Mr. Beetle, should I roll HI or roll LO ?"

... waiting ...

64blocks.com Social Multiplayer Dice (Gambling) - Escrow Service (Services) - GPG ID: 32AD7565, OTC ID: Dabs

All messages concerning escrow or with bitcoin addresses are GPG signed. Please verify.
petrescuerz
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August 01, 2013, 02:47:07 AM
 #1294

Server reboot. Back up very soon.

Deb

dooglus
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August 01, 2013, 03:51:49 AM
 #1295

used the site yesterday, pretty fun and pretty fast.

only bad thing was no day spa, you lose 200 btc in 60 seconds you expect a day spa!!   Wink

hehe just kidding, best of luck all.

I wonder if there would be any interest in a "high roller" version of the site where the house edge is 5%, but all big players get shipped luxury items for playing.  Smiley

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August 01, 2013, 03:57:00 AM
 #1296

used the site yesterday, pretty fun and pretty fast.

only bad thing was no day spa, you lose 200 btc in 60 seconds you expect a day spa!!   Wink

hehe just kidding, best of luck all.

I wonder if there would be any interest in a "high roller" version of the site where the house edge is 5%, but all big players get shipped luxury items for playing.  Smiley
Hmm... make 10 bets of 100, get sent...
1000 * 3.5% = 35 BTC
~= $3500
A round-trip cross-country plane ticket with hotel paid?

Sounds like fun!

Hell, you could fly high rollers to the spa and back

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
mechs
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August 01, 2013, 04:12:24 AM
 #1297

used the site yesterday, pretty fun and pretty fast.

only bad thing was no day spa, you lose 200 btc in 60 seconds you expect a day spa!!   Wink

hehe just kidding, best of luck all.
How you lose so much in 60 second?  What were you betting?

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August 01, 2013, 04:15:38 AM
 #1298

used the site yesterday, pretty fun and pretty fast.

only bad thing was no day spa, you lose 200 btc in 60 seconds you expect a day spa!!   Wink

hehe just kidding, best of luck all.

I wonder if there would be any interest in a "high roller" version of the site where the house edge is 5%, but all big players get shipped luxury items for playing.  Smiley

For some reason I thought of an airplane catalog and the stuff in it for sale XD

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August 01, 2013, 06:02:31 AM
 #1299

filters
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August 01, 2013, 08:09:22 AM
 #1300

goat quote from memory when he arrived on JD. I'm not a whale, I don't gamble very much...



goat lost $20,000 + which is a shame, but that did pay for my dinner which was kind of him Tongue

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