-

[bigasic]

The difficulty will for sure keep going up and up, but I personally think that the percentage that its climbing will start to slow down. a lot harder to add 30 percent to 1 petahash than to add 30 percent to 400Ths..

But, I still feel it will be difficult for (but probable) for KnC purchaser to get their ROI back in a good time frame.. I guess its when you receive it. 1st day orders will have a much better chance than last day orders.. But, they are also shipping from Sweden, so it will take a week or two for the usa units to go online..

But, yea, get ready for a huge increase in difficulty... if they add 2 petahashes, like I've heard, that will push the difficulty to well over 300 and since they arent the only company delivering, well, you get what im saying... plus knc will be hashing themselves, albeit a meager 5 percent of their sold hashing power (at least thats what they tell us, lol)

I wonder how much BFL still has to deliver on their 1gen devices? But yea, looks like KNC really showed BFL how its done... Too bad KNC didn't start when BFL did..

[pacojones]

TYVM. As I said, very impressive stuff - suck it BFL!

(Talk about bittersweet though, despite how much I've grown to hate BFL, all my HW is from them, so in saying "suck it BFL" what I'm actually saying if FML...)

my thoughts exactly!

[bigasic]

Even with higher than expected hashrate from KNC Jupiter & Saturn , ROI is not possible , hence people may want to sell it.

I'd have to disagree with this statement. Only people inexperienced with Mining Calculators, Difficulty to Hashrate Conversions, and a lack of knowledge on all current ASIC manufacturers and their estimated release dates claim that their unit will not make a profit above what they paid for it.

Personally my Day 1 Orders will likely pay for themselves in 2 months at the latest, but I expect sooner than that based on my predictions.

October 15th orders might have a more difficult time but will "ROI" as you say.

As an example I'd like you to tell me what you expect the difficulty to be in February 2013 based on your calculator and then tell me the corresponding hashrate that would have to be on the network to reach that difficulty.

Yea, 1st day orders from KNC are looking pretty good.. (Unless the bitcoin crashes, then we all are screwed) But, 1st day orders shouldnt have a problem getting their money back and making some... Its the latter orders that im not sure of.....

[pacojones]

Without knowing the power draw on those units I don't know for sure, but unless the draw is crazy then I totally agree with you. People naively using that fucking calculator on thegenesisblock.com drive me nuts!  

I LOVE that calculator!!!  It's enough to freak people out and run around with their hair on fire hoping they can offload their expensive hardware for pennies on the dollar - so those that are serious and in it for the long haul can come through and clean up!  The calculator is only as accurate as the information going into it so if people want to naively enter bad information and think "holy crap!  I'll never make any money" I say "GO FOR IT", it means more BTC for me  

[pacojones]

You have answered the question in your post , more the later the delivery in october the worst chance of meeting ROI & hence selling the miner will start making more sense , just take a guess & think about expected delivery of Bitfury 2nd batch , KNC November batch , Avalon 2nd Gen , Hashfast , Fasthash , Cointera , BFL 1stgen & 2nd gen ASIC e.t.c , even if all the manufacturers dont delivers to their best , it will still be enough to keep pushing difficulty to moon , I dont need any rocket science to guess Hashing @ 500gh/s will be like pissing in the wind

I'm thinking that people who jumped in when ASICS started (say early this year, just for arguments sake) are going to run out of money before hardware vendors can push the difficulty too high - will we hit billions, yes, but I still think it'll plateau and when it does, hardware should be available for shipment IMMEDIATELY (no more of this pre-order crap) and with any luck, the big money will be spent (on Gen1 and Gen2) and the really fast hardware will be available for a good price with lots of opportunity.  I'm probably wrong, but it's a nice thought.

OR

Companies will not be able to afford to keep operating on our pre-order money and they will go out of business.

[Ashitank]

You have answered the question in your post , more the later the delivery in october the worst chance of meeting ROI & hence selling the miner will start making more sense , just take a guess & think about expected delivery of Bitfury 2nd batch , KNC November batch , Avalon 2nd Gen , Hashfast , Fasthash , Cointera , BFL 1stgen & 2nd gen ASIC e.t.c , even if all the manufacturers dont delivers to their best , it will still be enough to keep pushing difficulty to moon , I dont need any rocket science to guess Hashing @ 500gh/s will be like pissing in the wind

I'm thinking that people who jumped in when ASICS started (say early this year, just for arguments sake) are going to run out of money before hardware vendors can push the difficulty too high - will we hit billions, yes, but I still think it'll plateau and when it does, hardware should be available for shipment IMMEDIATELY (no more of this pre-order crap) and with any luck, the big money will be spent (on Gen1 and Gen2) and the really fast hardware will be available for a good price with lots of opportunity.  I'm probably wrong, but it's a nice thought.

OR

Companies will not be able to afford to keep operating on our pre-order money and they will go out of business.

I hope BFL Does go out of business      

[bigasic]

Most companies that required upfront payment have met their NRE. So, whatever they sell from here on out is pure profit.. They could sell the 500Ghs machines for just a few hundred dollars now and still make a nice profit.. Remember, once the NRE is done, the chips are made literally for pennies a piece. The PSU will be the most expensive part, lol...  The only way BFL will go out of business is if people banded together and sued them and lost..

But, yea, I predict at the beginning of the year, you will be able to order a 1 ths machine and have it in your hands the next day.. (at least this spring)..  It will be interesting to see what the price is going to be for a 1ths machine..

In regards to that genesis block calculator.. thats absolutely WORST case scenario... Has anyone looked back to see what they predicted the difficulty would be today back in june? It would interesting to see how far they were off.

[||bit]

KNC still have units for shipping in November and at 550+Gh per $5k, I think we should be seriously considering purchasing some.

Lab_Rat what are your thoughts on KNC they seem to really know what they are doing in my opinion.

Sorry if this is old news, but have KNC actually shown a working (ASIC) prototype yet? And have they made any announcements on shipping, or are they just saying that everything is on schedule without giving any details?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=JFOcI8nK2xI

Thanks very much, that's exactly what I hadn't seen!

A very impressive bit of kit, brilliant stuff. The video was excruciating to watch, but I'd rather they make terrible videos and great hardware... Does it run wirelessly then?! Their laptop showing the CGMiner output has no cables running to it!

It's some weird new technology called 'wireless'.  

...j/k couldn't resist... but it is good to see such a video.

[bittymitty]

Does this mean that Bitfury will have to drop their price to compete with the 28nm gear coming online soon?

[bigasic]

just read in the shoutbox at bfl that a local that went to the headquarters will be able to pick up his machines in 2 weeks.. so, according to him, they arent shipping today... they are done with all their technical stuff and will start shipping in a week or so... could be fud, but its something..

Had to laugh... "2 weeks" hmmm, haven't we heard that before?

[bigasic]

Does this mean that Bitfury will have to drop their price to compete with the 28nm gear coming online soon?

If they dont, im sure Zach will be able to use KnC as ammunition to bring their prices down..

[bittymitty]

It would be interesting to know what discount he could get for a bulk order from KNC and how that would compare to the Bitfury prices. 

Seeing as both the deliveries will be in November it will be the gh/BTC that will make difference.

[bigasic]

okay, off topic here.. but silver and gold have nose dived the last couple days.. it might be a good time to turn a few coins into silver or gold..

Click the link in my signature if your interested...

They are great to work with and take bitcoins as payment. their prices are the best, even better than monex, if they aren't just call them and they will price match...

Dont know why it nose dived, but i think its a good time to turn a few coins into silver.. I like to diversify a little, not too much, but just a tad...

okay, back to lab rat mining....

[mmmerlin]

It would be interesting to know what discount he could get for a bulk order from KNC and how that would compare to the Bitfury prices. 

Seeing as both the deliveries will be in November it will be the gh/BTC that will make difference.

It think that ship has probably sailed either way...

[bittymitty]

Gold and Silver price both fell.

With the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling about to be hit again investor confidence is low.  When the US defaults on its debt then the people holding gold and BTC will be the winners.

Not sure why Lab_Rat continues to drop, I guess the large holders are desperate to get out of their positions even at a loss. 

[mmmerlin]

Gold and Silver price both fell.

With the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling about to be hit again investor confidence is low.  When the US defaults on its debt then the people holding gold and BTC will be the winners.

Not sure why Lab_Rat continues to drop, I guess the large holders are desperate to get out of their positions even at a loss. 

That is not the case. The large holders are virtually all holding - watch the holdings if you don't believe me, they're all public!

The "fall" is a ridiculously low volume one. If many thousands of shares start changing hands at those prices then you can say that large holders are leaving and that price has actually fallen, until then, it's just low liquidity market crap and should be ignored.

If even one really big holder sells the price will plummet. On the other hand, if one equally big investor wants in, the price will rocket - this is what I mean by the fall not actually be representative.

[bittymitty]

Well someone keeps selling and collecting all the bids down to about .12 which is well below IPO.  So someone is selling at a loss and I am guessing this is one or more of the hardware sellers trying to get out.   Not sure why you would buy at IPO then sell at a loss unless you really didn't believe in the future of the mine. 

[mmmerlin]

Well someone keeps selling and collecting all the bids down to about .12 which is well below IPO.  So someone is selling at a loss and I am guessing this is one or more of the hardware sellers trying to get out.   Not sure why you would buy at IPO then sell at a loss unless you really didn't believe in the future of the mine. 

The volume is still very low though, I don't think this is particularly significant.

And so what if it is anyway? We get the same divs/bond either way, and once the new gear comes in that will improve greatly, and will likely be reflected in the bond price as well. Don't sweat!

[bittymitty]

I do take comfort in the fact that all the main trading stocks on Bitfunder are down not just lab_rat. 

Do you think people are trying to get out of the exchanges after the BTC-T shutdown?

If the SEC is going after the exchanges then Bitfunder could be next?  Also what are the chances of the SEC going after lab_rat for selling bonds on a unlicensed exchange?  At least we are safe while the government is shutdown....

[mmmerlin]

I do take comfort in the fact that all the main trading stocks on Bitfunder are down not just lab_rat.  

Do you think people are trying to get out of the exchanges after the BTC-T shutdown?

If the SEC is going after the exchanges then Bitfunder could be next?  Also what are the chances of the SEC going after lab_rat for selling bonds on a unlicensed exchange?  At least we are safe while the government is shutdown....

Exchange shutdown is not issue whatsoever, look at ASICMiner post GLBSE. Going after LR himself, that's another issue, but very unlikely IMHO.

EDIT: And, more importantly, in his!