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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1039945 times)
Bitcycle
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September 20, 2013, 01:13:41 PM
 #12481



No, it's mostly me having a very low opinion of Bayesian statistics ^^

Well, there's my actual laugh-out-loud today.
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September 20, 2013, 01:13:47 PM
 #12482

You must be kidding..

i think he's trying to say it's subjective probability

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September 20, 2013, 01:14:17 PM
 #12483


https://blockchain.info/address/13kPwnvBdLoMPmYqYEXW5r8DSx7j4avg7G?filter=2

This is address of labcoin secretary. as you can see he was  poor guy before during his trollbox phase, collect 40btc in 4 months, gambling on satoshidice, since becoming swedish mouthpiece for labcoin & after succesful ipo he have taken ~960BTC from cold storage... amount which he have not deposited..this is more like 32%

I'm not sure I understand what exactly you're trying to say?

after successful ipo of labcoin you have proccessed withdrawal from 1KRj8opQ5y3h2dw8FjnskxuVZ5qtu5Uuid to theswede75 with amount higher than what he has deposited (total ~$120,000) you know where this balance has come from.

funds from public sales which were withdrawn from your exchange also are not spent on development of 130nm chips


So you're upset that we processed a withdrawal for an issuer after an IPO?  That's kind of how it all works.

Or you're upset that they haven't spent it yet?  (take it up with them?)

What are you wanting us to do here?


So, wait. Is Swede the issuer or spokesperson?
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September 20, 2013, 01:15:05 PM
 #12484

whats the odds that they left it thinking it was stable, went home and it crashed and as its Chinease holiday nobody is there to fix it...
floatyfish
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September 20, 2013, 01:16:51 PM
 #12485

Don't worry everyone, I just decided to get out (too much drama). I guarantee that at least one of 2 things will happen:

1) The stock will rise to a level where you can get out without losing too much money/make a small profit if you timed your buys correctly
2) Labcoin will release good news causing the stock to shoot up and you'll make money

If you were helped by my action, a donation would be appreciated  Tongue

If you feel like donating: 1NtgJf4znCsA5GJDCbqtowHL2143WyqLkC
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September 20, 2013, 01:16:56 PM
 #12486

Quote
1) It's a scam, they don't even have chips, never intended to have and just bought some Avalons: 1% chance
2) They have chips and are mining but for their own profit: 5% chance
3) They have some working sample chips (10 or so), but are having production/delivery issues with the remaining chips: 30% chance
4) They have chips and are having technical issues: 50% chance
5) They have chips but there is some catastrophic flaw with them that can never be solved: 10%

you can't just write arbitary 30%, 50% 10% and 5% of "they have chips...but" and write 1% that they don't have chips


Sure you can. It's called Bayesian statistics.

You must be kidding..

No, it's mostly me having a very low opinion of Bayesian statistics ^^

Bayesian statistics actually work great for non-scientific situations (like this one). This is how I see the situation based on reading this thread every single day since before the IPO and doing my own research. Feel free to disagree though, I'm not saying you can't.

Know what's happening in cryptoworld: www.coinschedule.com
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September 20, 2013, 01:17:34 PM
 #12487

Very likely but not necessarily! Easy to come up with a plausible scenario to explain this mess... there are hundreds of possibilities the only people that know for sure are Sam and their team. For example:

Imagine you are Sam. You wait 6 months for the day chips and boards arrive. You can't sleep for the last week. You really want to tell everyone you hit the nail in the head, 15/September is the deadline you set yourself 6 months ago.

The chips and boards arrive on the 14th. You team starts assembling them. Everyone spends the whole night trying to get it to work... suddenly: It's working!

You send a message to everyone saying "We are hashing with 2TH/s".

10 minutes later: board stops working.

Engineers get to it... make it work again.... but after 15 minutes stops working.

You speak with the lead engineer: he says he thinks he knows what the issue is and can get it fixed in 24 hours.

But 24 hours later.... still not working. Engineer asks for another 48 hours...

48 hours later... it's better. So you keep your promise... but after 12 hours working the board stops again and now the whole thing is fried, won't even turn back on.

Add to this some delivery/production issues (so you don't even have some spare chips yet to replace that) - the factory promised chips "in about 2 days" and have been delaying for a week already...

If they relayed that information to shareholders it would have been fine.  Instead, they acted like they were hashing, just "solo mining" with no explanation and started spewing all kinds of bullshit excuses and keeping everyone in the dark while their share price faltered.  Lots of people lost real money with this bullshit. Bullshit they could easily have avoided simply by being forthright about what was actually happening.

Also, each of their boards has 15 chips, so 30 GH/s.  2Th/s would require 67 boards.  Seems pretty implausible they'd all fry at once. Unless there was a power surge or something, which wouldn't be something they could fix.

They also claimed they'd be at 4Th/s by Monday and continue to expand throughout this week.  But what's happened?  It's Friday and they have ZERO Th/s.

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September 20, 2013, 01:18:02 PM
 #12488

Don't worry everyone, I just decided to get out (too much drama). I guarantee that at least one of 2 things will happen:

1) The stock will rise to a level where you can get out without losing too much money/make a small profit if you timed your buys correctly
2) Labcoin will release good news causing the stock to shoot up and you'll make money

=> 0.0010, was that you ?

▄██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀███▀███▄
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▀██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀
  BUY
  SELL
ACCEPT
   ███████████████████████████
  .CRYPTOCURRENCY..
███████████████████████████
.
TMAN
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September 20, 2013, 01:18:08 PM
 #12489

Holiday in china...........

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September 20, 2013, 01:18:39 PM
 #12490

whats the odds that they left it thinking it was stable, went home and it crashed and as its Chinease holiday nobody is there to fix it...

Well, it could be.... I know a guy that has a startup here in London, before he started raising money he bought himself and his family a trip to the Maldives for 1 week, about 9 months in advance on a holiday. He said "doesn't matter what happens to my live in the next 9 mionths, I Know I am going to that place to chill out no matter what".


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September 20, 2013, 01:18:45 PM
 #12491

What's the chance that they solved their issues and decided to switch back to solo mining?  Cool

Lessthan 2 Smiley

Better dump your shares and play justdice to recoup loss
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September 20, 2013, 01:18:45 PM
 #12492

Holiday in china...........

Sure, it's all about holidays.

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▀██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀
  BUY
  SELL
ACCEPT
   ███████████████████████████
  .CRYPTOCURRENCY..
███████████████████████████
.
AngelSky
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September 20, 2013, 01:19:36 PM
 #12493

What's the chance that they solved their issues and decided to switch back to solo mining?  Cool

Lessthan 2 Smiley

Better dump your shares and play justdice to recoup loss

Good idea!

▄██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀███▀███▄
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▀██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀
  BUY
  SELL
ACCEPT
   ███████████████████████████
  .CRYPTOCURRENCY..
███████████████████████████
.
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September 20, 2013, 01:20:55 PM
 #12494

It's a pretty serious holiday, the one where they eat mooncakes. 

The labcoin technical team is probably off eating mooncakes and not giving a fuck. They'll be back to work on Sunday, maybe that's when they'll actually start hashing.

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September 20, 2013, 01:21:47 PM
 #12495

Very likely but not necessarily! Easy to come up with a plausible scenario to explain this mess... there are hundreds of possibilities the only people that know for sure are Sam and their team. For example:

Imagine you are Sam. You wait 6 months for the day chips and boards arrive. You can't sleep for the last week. You really want to tell everyone you hit the nail in the head, 15/September is the deadline you set yourself 6 months ago.

The chips and boards arrive on the 14th. You team starts assembling them. Everyone spends the whole night trying to get it to work... suddenly: It's working!

You send a message to everyone saying "We are hashing with 2TH/s".

10 minutes later: board stops working.

Engineers get to it... make it work again.... but after 15 minutes stops working.

You speak with the lead engineer: he says he thinks he knows what the issue is and can get it fixed in 24 hours.

But 24 hours later.... still not working. Engineer asks for another 48 hours...

48 hours later... it's better. So you keep your promise... but after 12 hours working the board stops again and now the whole thing is fried, won't even turn back on.

Add to this some delivery/production issues (so you don't even have some spare chips yet to replace that) - the factory promised chips "in about 2 days" and have been delaying for a week already...

If they relayed that information to shareholders it would have been fine.  Instead, they acted like they were hashing, just "solo mining" with no explanation and started spewing all kinds of bullshit excuses and keeping everyone in the dark while their share price faltered.  Lots of people lost real money with this bullshit. Bullshit they could easily have avoided simply by being forthright about what was actually happening.

Also, each of their boards has 15 chips, so 30 GH/s.  2Th/s would require 67 boards.  Seems pretty implausible they'd all fry at once. Unless there was a power surge or something, which wouldn't be something they could fix.

They also claimed they'd be at 4Th/s by Monday and continue to expand throughout this week.  But what's happened?  It's Friday and they have ZERO Th/s.

Very good points. I am just saying that there are possible explanations to this mess that don't mean they are trying to trick everyone else. Plus, I don't know how the Chinese culture is about failures and things not working as expected, maybe they prefer to delay the news and try to fix it meanwhile (Which obviously backfired).

Know what's happening in cryptoworld: www.coinschedule.com
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September 20, 2013, 01:22:57 PM
 #12496

Don't worry everyone, I just decided to get out (too much drama). I guarantee that at least one of 2 things will happen:

1) The stock will rise to a level where you can get out without losing too much money/make a small profit if you timed your buys correctly
2) Labcoin will release good news causing the stock to shoot up and you'll make money

=> 0.0010, was that you ?

Nope, that's too low even for me.

If you feel like donating: 1NtgJf4znCsA5GJDCbqtowHL2143WyqLkC
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September 20, 2013, 01:25:11 PM
 #12497

I'm out for the time being, been a fun and crazy ride for sure.

A Member of the LCSH
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September 20, 2013, 01:25:56 PM
 #12498

Very likely but not necessarily! Easy to come up with a plausible scenario to explain this mess... there are hundreds of possibilities the only people that know for sure are Sam and their team. For example:

Imagine you are Sam. You wait 6 months for the day chips and boards arrive. You can't sleep for the last week. You really want to tell everyone you hit the nail in the head, 15/September is the deadline you set yourself 6 months ago.

a question which was posed before I will ask again, how much do you think those that claim they are 'big investors' long term holders etc. would pay for such information that demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that there is no sam noi involved in relation to this project?


What do you mean, that you have such information?

I think no one would pay anything, if you have the information just go ahead and post it.

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September 20, 2013, 01:26:14 PM
 #12499

Just one update of substance from Labcoin and it's back on. Grin
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September 20, 2013, 01:27:53 PM
 #12500

Just one update of substance from Labcoin and it's back on. Grin

You are in a "hope" mode. Don't forget to listen to the market sometimes.

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▀██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▀
  BUY
  SELL
ACCEPT
   ███████████████████████████
  .CRYPTOCURRENCY..
███████████████████████████
.
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