Bitcoin Forum
December 11, 2017, 05:16:22 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  

Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

Pages: « 1 ... 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 [677] 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 ... 914 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1057941 times)
dhenson
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994



View Profile
September 23, 2013, 12:54:53 AM
 #13521

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3750 (edit) btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.  The math below is assuming 4000tbtc per day, but the last few times I've checked it's been over 4500.  It's currently at 5100 btc/day http://blockchain.info/stats

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential.  It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high.  Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.
1513012582
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513012582

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513012582
Reply with quote  #2

1513012582
Report to moderator
1513012582
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513012582

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513012582
Reply with quote  #2

1513012582
Report to moderator
1513012582
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513012582

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513012582
Reply with quote  #2

1513012582
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1513012582
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513012582

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513012582
Reply with quote  #2

1513012582
Report to moderator
1513012582
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513012582

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513012582
Reply with quote  #2

1513012582
Report to moderator
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:00:59 AM
 #13522

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3600 btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential.  It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high.  Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch.  If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

So, until Nov 1, they really aren't worth .002 btc, by your calculations. 

And I agree, the risk is very high, they are unlikely to be able to achieve 1% by Nov 1.

dhenson
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994



View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:03:47 AM
 #13523

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch.  If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

So, until Nov 1, they really aren't worth .002 btc, by your calculations. 

And I agree, the risk is very high, they are unlikely to be able to achieve 1% by Nov 1.

The market apparently disagrees with you.
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:06:51 AM
 #13524

The market apparently disagrees with you.
we'll see

Ytterbium
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile WWW
September 23, 2013, 01:10:56 AM
 #13525

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting.  Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:14:45 AM
 #13526

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting.  Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

he's been holding back a portion of the dividend to fund Gen2.  Estimates are that he's got at least 11K btc saved.

Ytterbium
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile WWW
September 23, 2013, 01:15:19 AM
 #13527

If labcoin can stabilize their hardware issues they should definitely consider selling hardware.  People will likely still pay a pretty big premium for hardware that ships same day.

Plus, if you ship it out "for hackers" at a low price some of the talented hackers out there might be able to fix the stability issues (as we saw with Avalons running over 350Mhz)

BitThink
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 882



View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:23:50 AM
 #13528

there's one kind of business man, who always show investors bright future even themselves don't believe. For example, a small startup founder will promise 100 million revenue in 2 years just to attract investors. Lying becomes these guys' habit, so they keep lying even when it is completely harmful and unnecessary.

I guess that's the reason we've seen another promise, 20TH in 2 weeks. This is announced even before they have fixed the longlasting problem forbidding them from bring up 2TH. Moreover, why '2 weeks' becomes so popular now? After delaying again and again due to the endless tweaking, why they never learn to be smart and be conservative in promising?
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:29:06 AM
 #13529

I guess that's the reason we've seen another promise, 20TH in 2 weeks. This is announced even before they have fixed the longlasting problem forbidding them from bring up 2TH.
in 2 weeks, they brought .75 TH/s online (but promised at least 4 TH/s by now), so they are currently under performing. In 2 weeks, they'll be lucky to top 10 TH/s.

Bitcycle
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 01:51:32 AM
 #13530


Lot of bid pressure building.  Looks like there's more people wanting to get in than out at the moment.

If your bids aren't getting filled, maybe you should bid higher.
Ytterbium
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile WWW
September 23, 2013, 01:53:49 AM
 #13531

I don't know that "the market" actually expects them to hit 20Th/s. They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. But they do have a hashrate, and that hashrate has been going up.  A little consistency and a steady increase should help get the share price back up a little bit, and hopefully indicate they are ironing out kinks and getting things fixed and ready.

velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:03:19 AM
 #13532

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. 
how do you figure that?  They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price.  The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.


Bitcycle
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:05:14 AM
 #13533

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. 
how do you figure that?  They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price.  The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.



Keep repeating it, maybe your bid will get hit.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
BitCsByBit
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:05:25 AM
 #13534

If labcoin can stabilize their hardware issues they should definitely consider selling hardware.  People will likely still pay a pretty big premium for hardware that ships same day.

Plus, if you ship it out "for hackers" at a low price some of the talented hackers out there might be able to fix the stability issues (as we saw with Avalons running over 350Mhz)

Good point.

Avalon chips were pushed to stable 450MH/s from the standard 282MH/s.
Bitfury chips are pushed to 4GH/s from the standard of around 2GH/s.

There are some talented developers out there.

Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:09:38 AM
 #13535

Keep repeating it, maybe your bid will get hit.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

sorry, I won't be paying above fair value for something this risky.

EDIT: interesting that you don't try to counter my point.

dhenson
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 994



View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:10:08 AM
 #13536

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. 
how do you figure that?  They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price.  The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

You are deliberately excluding potential profits.  Though I admit standard logic doesn't really seem to apply as there isn't a whole lot of risk in getting left behind with this stock.  If past performance is any indication, the price can and will turn around on a dime.

If we applied your logic to your beloved AM, their share price would be worth .33 btc/share @ 50% valuation. (at 50TH/1100TH network with 4000 coins a day, 400,000 shares).  Obviously their risk is much lower and the potential profits are baked in.

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:17:04 AM
 #13537

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.
of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate.  Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated.  At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov?  Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2?  We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels.  AM is CURRENTLY selling hardware.  Is Labcoin?   When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.  

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations. 

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

Bitcycle
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:23:00 AM
 #13538

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.
of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate.  Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated.  At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov?  Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2?  We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels.   When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.  

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations.

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.

Just move your bid up, dude.
velacreations
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 476


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:25:11 AM
 #13539

Just move your bid up, dude.
I know you can't sell at current levels, but you should.  
When more people see/do the math, they'll come the same conclusion.

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.
and I see you can't provide a valid counter point...

BitCsByBit
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 252


View Profile
September 23, 2013, 02:31:44 AM
 #13540

Just move your bid up, dude.
I know you can't sell at current levels, but you should.  
When more people see/do the math, they'll come the same conclusion.

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.
and I see you can't provide a valid counter point...


At least it is refreshing to see that you have moved on from screaming "it's a scam", but there is really no point in repeating yourself.
State your point and move on,  otherwise I'll suspect that you have alternative motives!

Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
Pages: « 1 ... 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 [677] 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 ... 914 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!