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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1058520 times)
dhenson
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September 23, 2013, 02:40:12 AM
 #13541

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

I'm late for dinner so this is the last I'll post on the issue (I'm sure others are tired of this by now anyway).  edit...For this example I've pegged the network hash rate at 1300 TH.  I realize this is low, but changing it wouldn't effect the outcome ratio.



As you can see, I've granted Labcoin 20TH on Nov. 1 (low) and Asicminer 100TH on Nov. 1 (high).  Based on a 50% valuation, labcoin is undervalued by half at current price whereas Asicminer is overvalued by 2.86 x.

Obviously both assets should have risk and potential factored in.  What this should show is that Labcoin is undervalued due to risk, and Asicminer is overvalued due to potential.

It is up to each investor to determine at what price point to invest, however, I believe that once burnside and Labcoin work their shit out and get the warning removed we will see less risk therefore a higher price point.

edit... I would further speculate that it is much easier for a company to remove risk than to provide greater potential.  Locking shares, pictures of hashing rigs and steady hashing rate increases would remove much of the currently baked in risk of labcoin.
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velacreations
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September 23, 2013, 02:58:07 AM
 #13542

So you are only comparing one part of the AM revenue with the entire (hopeful) revenue of Labcoin?

Why not compare the actual dividends paid last week?  Oh right, LC doesn't have any...

It's crazy that you just make up numbers to try and show LC has more value than it actually does.  AM has 70% of the hash rate in your example right now earning coins. LC has less than 4%.  Nice try.

Now, go back when AM was getting going and they had only paid a handful of dividends.  The API rates were 70%!  You're gonna try to say that LC has more potential now than AM did in it's first month of dividends? And less risk?  Ha!

You said it yourself: 1% of the network = .002 value

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September 23, 2013, 03:07:03 AM
 #13543

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

Right, and if they get 2% they'd be worth 0.004, and if they get 5% they'd be at 0.01. We don't know what the potential outcome is, but at this moment they have about 0.06 - 0.08% which they build up over 2-3 days, with 400Gh/s added in one day (going from 350-750Gh/s)

If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks. On the other hand we could also see an increasing pace over the next few days as their outsourced provider ramps up and so on.

That said, being kept in the dark like this is quite annoying. It would be nice if they showed pics of their setup, where they are getting components from and so on. The share price would probably be a lot higher if we could actually see progress being made, rather then simply speculating about it.

But either way, they've basically set a 'minimum' expectation.  It no longer seems like this stock will "go to zero" and investors are risking 100% of their money. The rest of the price is just gambling on whether or not they can actually pull it off.

Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.

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September 23, 2013, 03:09:47 AM
 #13544

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

Right, and if they get 2% they'd be worth 0.004, and if they get 5% they'd be at 0.01. We don't know what the potential outcome is, but at this moment they have about 0.06 - 0.08% which they build up over 2-3 days, with 400Gh/s added in one day (going from 350-750Gh/s)

If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks. On the other hand we could also see an increasing pace over the next few days as their outsourced provider ramps up and so on.

That said, being kept in the dark like this is quite annoying. It would be nice if they showed pics of their setup, where they are getting components from and so on. The share price would probably be a lot higher if we could actually see progress being made, rather then simply speculating about it.

But either way, they've basically set a 'minimum' expectation.  It no longer seems like this stock will "go to zero" and investors are risking 100% of their money. The rest of the price is just gambling on whether or not they can actually pull it off.

Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.

Doubt they can maintain any pace given how hashrate seems to have decreased between yesterday and today
velacreations
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September 23, 2013, 03:13:22 AM
 #13545

Quote
Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.
Except that they don't have the 1.15% of the network to support it, and even by your calculations, won't hit that for months.

You need the 1% of the network to get that value for the stock, that's the whole point.

Quote
If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks.
Yikes, so what, about .4% of the network?

BitThink
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September 23, 2013, 03:21:18 AM
 #13546

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002.  They have a long way to achieve even that.

I'm late for dinner so this is the last I'll post on the issue (I'm sure others are tired of this by now anyway).  edit...For this example I've pegged the network hash rate at 1300 TH.  I realize this is low, but changing it wouldn't effect the outcome ratio.



As you can see, I've granted Labcoin 20TH on Nov. 1 (low) and Asicminer 100TH on Nov. 1 (high).  Based on a 50% valuation, labcoin is undervalued by half at current price whereas Asicminer is overvalued by 2.86 x.

Obviously both assets should have risk and potential factored in.  What this should show is that Labcoin is undervalued due to risk, and Asicminer is overvalued due to potential.

It is up to each investor to determine at what price point to invest, however, I believe that once burnside and Labcoin work their shit out and get the warning removed we will see less risk therefore a higher price point.

I agree AM is still over priced, if they don't increase the hash rate soon. But again, ignoring hardware sale is not correct here. Many people complaining that they cannot reach ROI with the miner they bought. So selling 1GH in one week almost equals to mining with it forever.  Remember money today is more valuable than it one years later.  Actually, hardware sales is the most important advantage of AM and Labcoin compared with a pure mining contract, such as PETA MINE.

I hope Labcoin can fix their issues now and get their 65nm chips as soon as possible. But comparing with AM only in Hashing rate is misleading. I will not do that even when I actually have ask orders waiting to be filled.
BitThink
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September 23, 2013, 03:48:27 AM
 #13547

From what they promised, bringing up 20TH in two weeks. We can know that the good thing is that most likely, they've got enough chips and boards ready or available soon. They have secured a place to put their racks. They may have found a way to fix or workaround the stability issue, at least they believe so.

However, there are a lot uncertainties too. Their poor record of keeping promises makes us hard to believe them will achieve their goals in time anymore. No hashing rate increase yesterday also weakens the confidence (it was a working day after the holiday). Certainly, it may due to the typhoon, which also affects their plan of today. But after Monday, they really need a hash rate boost to keep their promise 'hashing ability is added daily'.
Bitcycle
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September 23, 2013, 03:59:54 AM
 #13548


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).

JohnyBigs
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September 23, 2013, 04:28:10 AM
 #13549


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).



They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
TsuyokuNaritai
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September 23, 2013, 04:33:33 AM
 #13550

They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).
They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
Not anymore apparently.

[05:03] <yesminister> szmarco how did the city do with the typhoon?
[05:03] <szmarco> nothing.just rain and wind.everything is fine.
[05:03] <ieatcows> is it all pretty much over?
[05:04] <szmarco> yes.
[05:04] <yesminister> thanks. you're our man on the scene!
[05:04] <szmarco> Smiley
[05:05] <szmarco> sunshine now.

Zakryze
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September 23, 2013, 04:40:09 AM
 #13551

sunshine and the share price declines? whatthe!!!  Cheesy

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Zubilica
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September 23, 2013, 05:02:08 AM
 #13552

sunshine and the share price declines? whatthe!!!  Cheesy

Prepare for 24/09 first dividends Smiley

ronaldlee0917
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September 23, 2013, 05:03:55 AM
 #13553


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).



They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
The typhoon is off now, everyone is back to work.
p.s. I'm from Hong Kong

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KCBitcoin
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September 23, 2013, 05:05:31 AM
 #13554


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).



They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
The typhoon is off now, everyone is back to work.
p.s. I'm from Hong Kong
so ppl actually took a day off around HK and shenzheng?
BitCsByBit
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September 23, 2013, 05:09:33 AM
 #13555


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).



They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
The typhoon is off now, everyone is back to work.
p.s. I'm from Hong Kong
so ppl actually took a day off around HK and shenzheng?

They had a 2 day national holiday before the typhoon,  but it seems like Labcoin was working throughout to bring on the current hash rate.

Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
redbeans2012
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September 23, 2013, 05:11:01 AM
 #13556


They might fall off the chart if they don't add hashrate today (Monday in China).



They are having a massive typhoon storm, don't be too surprised.
The typhoon is off now, everyone is back to work.
p.s. I'm from Hong Kong
so ppl actually took a day off around HK and shenzheng?

Cant speak for hong kong but I've been in a bunch of hurricanes and the mania that happens before one hits (even if it ends up missing you) is pretty epic.
Ytterbium
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September 23, 2013, 05:11:09 AM
 #13557

If you really think the price will tank, there are some reasonable put options available.  Including one with a premium of 0.00015750 and a strike price of 0.00150000.  That means if the price drops below 0.0013425 in the next 4 days, you would make a profit.  And if the price drops below 0.001185 you would actually have a 100% ROI.

There are only 0.2btc worth available though, so you can't do a very big order.

On the other hand if you actually have less then 1500 shares you can use this to hedge your bet.  If the price does drop you get a guaranteed sale price.

If there were any reasonably priced call options you could use them to hedge a long position - Instead of buying shares you could buy options, and if the price doesn't go up to where you want you just don't execute them.  You would only ever lose the price of your options, whereas if you went 'normal' long you could potentially lose everything.

The problem is they're way over priced.

VolanicEruptor
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September 23, 2013, 05:11:40 AM
 #13558

Is it possible we can harness the power of any future typhoons to bring online more hash power?  We might have better luck with that.. ?  Grin

FloatesMcgoates
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September 23, 2013, 05:36:54 AM
 #13559

If you really think the price will tank, there are some reasonable put options available.  Including one with a premium of 0.00015750 and a strike price of 0.00150000.  That means if the price drops below 0.0013425 in the next 4 days, you would make a profit.  And if the price drops below 0.001185 you would actually have a 100% ROI.

There are only 0.2btc worth available though, so you can't do a very big order.

On the other hand if you actually have less then 1500 shares you can use this to hedge your bet.  If the price does drop you get a guaranteed sale price.

If there were any reasonably priced call options you could use them to hedge a long position - Instead of buying shares you could buy options, and if the price doesn't go up to where you want you just don't execute them.  You would only ever lose the price of your options, whereas if you went 'normal' long you could potentially lose everything.

The problem is they're way over priced.

Seriously guy like a solid percentage of your last few posts have just been you advertising your put options.
Bitcycle
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September 23, 2013, 05:42:29 AM
 #13560

If you really think the price will tank, there are some reasonable put options available.  Including one with a premium of 0.00015750 and a strike price of 0.00150000.  That means if the price drops below 0.0013425 in the next 4 days, you would make a profit.  And if the price drops below 0.001185 you would actually have a 100% ROI.

There are only 0.2btc worth available though, so you can't do a very big order.

On the other hand if you actually have less then 1500 shares you can use this to hedge your bet.  If the price does drop you get a guaranteed sale price.

If there were any reasonably priced call options you could use them to hedge a long position - Instead of buying shares you could buy options, and if the price doesn't go up to where you want you just don't execute them.  You would only ever lose the price of your options, whereas if you went 'normal' long you could potentially lose everything.

The problem is they're way over priced.

Seriously guy like a solid percentage of your last few posts have just been you advertising your put options.

I don't think they're his.

But he does bring up a good point.  This is a stock with enough uncertainty in its price to make the options worth considering as a hedge.
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