TaggedYa
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August 14, 2014, 11:21:20 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks.






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organofcorti
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August 14, 2014, 02:42:49 PM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then?




marcus72ch
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August 14, 2014, 04:14:25 PM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ? Sorry, but this kind of math is somehow off from reality in my opinion. The last 2 weekends I was playing a bet high/low game with 80100.000 satoshis as capital starting from 1 with a chance of 1/3 and always doubled my bet each time I lost, so you would think with 100.000 you should have enough to double till you win again, but actually both weeks I lost all. the chance for that might be higher than 3 over 90% CDF blocks in a row, but in the end it's just that, Luck is a bitch and end of the story. I did not really get the matter with the CDF for blocks till Dr.Haribo explained me once in the chat and I lost around 40€ last week, so I'm not happy, but I do not think that luck cares about mathematical probabilities in the end.




DrHaribo
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August 14, 2014, 04:19:19 PM 

So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ?
The chance is always the same. It doesn't matter what luck you had yesterday  that's not going to affect luck today.




Minor Miner
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August 14, 2014, 05:53:00 PM 

Why don't you just put a simple luck indicator on the portal? On the big stats page instead of the dot graph? It could show the luck observed for the last 3 difficulty periods? Everyone could see it and you could just link to the page each time this comes up?




squall1066
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August 14, 2014, 07:31:52 PM 

I have jumped around alot of pools since I started mining years ago now (god I sound old hat at this) I have no problem sticking around in periods of bad luck, Last month the pool solved 56 blocks, Well, I had 56 payouts so it might not be totally accurate to the full calender month, However, Last month I earned more on bitminter than any calculator said I would, I really believe it's a case of rough with the smooth. If I have to say anything (criticizing) about the pool, I need to donate half a percent to have more than 5 workers, But There is a 1% fee on this donation This is ontop of the 1% PPLNS, Dont get me wrong, I like to donate a bit to keep things running, I just see the fee as an excuse to get more from people who use benefits. Before anyone says "just dont use more than 5 workers dumb ass, You can point as many as you like to one worker" Well no actually for two reasons, Firstly, For some reason dragons do not work well sharing a worker, I have no idea why, Also, As I host in different locations, I like to see where is not producing the hash power I pay for so I dont have to go around asking everyone to check my miners are working. Keep up the good work Dr.

Bitrated user: squall1066.



theweiss
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August 14, 2014, 08:01:02 PM 

Its nice to see the Hero and Legendary members jumping back in to the conversation. We really need to make sure everyone gets this whole luck and randomness thing (i.e. nothing that has happened in the past has any relevance to the future).
Its been really disappointing to see the hash rate dropping during this tough time. I understand that some people really can't keep the lights on with these low moments but if your bankroll is stable enough there's no reason to jump around.




SgtMoth


August 14, 2014, 08:18:59 PM 

btw...sold some miners, didnt leave the pool.




squall1066
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August 14, 2014, 09:05:40 PM 

Its nice to see the Hero and Legendary members jumping back in to the conversation. We really need to make sure everyone gets this whole luck and randomness thing (i.e. nothing that has happened in the past has any relevance to the future).
Its been really disappointing to see the hash rate dropping during this tough time. I understand that some people really can't keep the lights on with these low moments but if your bankroll is stable enough there's no reason to jump around.
That is so true, I used to leave for greener pastures after a pools "bad" bit, And I just kept on chasing bad luck after bad luck, We really have to tough it out! btw...sold some miners, didnt leave the pool.
Thats good news, What have you got lined up for the next stint?

Bitrated user: squall1066.



SgtMoth


August 14, 2014, 10:44:38 PM 

sp30 with any luck...as long as bitcoin doesnt go any lower




philipma1957
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August 15, 2014, 12:10:27 AM 

SgtMoth let me know how you like the sp30. I got some more s3's today. I point one here. I pointed 1 at btcguild.
In house I now have 6 s3's .
I have an Asiminer tube coming (sounds like porn a bit)
Seems to be very low cost 1.04 btc for around 800 gh. you need a psu. and it will burn about 800 watts.
So it is okay with btc at 500 a coin. you buy a 1.04 btc for 525usd . this could pay off if you have a good psu on hand. I should get this on the 20th I will post back on it.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net... I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.



iplabs
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August 15, 2014, 03:03:40 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? The cumulative distribution function is a percentage probability charted with an "S" curve. It charts the probability of finding an answer with x number of tries. So 99.33% means that there is a 99.33% chance that we should have found a block with that number of shares. There can never be a 100% chance since, as was mentioned, the chance always resets with each try. So when you reach 99% you can never reach 100% probability from there making the 99th percentile infinitely long as it can go on forever if an answer is never reached. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function




organofcorti
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August 15, 2014, 03:31:26 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? The cumulative distribution function is a percentage probability charted with an "S" curve. It charts the probability of finding an answer with x number of tries. So 99.33% means that there is a 99.33% chance that we should have found a block with that number of shares. There can never be a 100% chance since, as was mentioned, the chance always resets with each try. So when you reach 99% you can never reach 100% probability from there making the 99th percentile infinitely long as it can go on forever if an answer is never reached. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_functionWhy are you repeating me? Are you implying I didnt explain all that clearly? You may be correct.




nocroom


August 15, 2014, 04:01:37 AM 

Im going to give this pool a try.. 1/4 1.2ths looks good i'll go full power




Ososober
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August 15, 2014, 07:02:59 AM 

well, i just got delivery of my 6 bit fury twins, got them going, and now hashing not at 4.5ghs, but 26ghs, slowly building but definitely getting there, im adding to the pool, albeit slowly, just have to get more usb hubs, can anyone recommend any (in the $20$30 us$ range)




DrHaribo
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August 15, 2014, 07:29:00 AM 

I need to donate half a percent to have more than 5 workers, But There is a 1% fee on this donation No, that 1% is the pool fee which is taken out of the block income before miners are paid. I put the "(+1% fee)" in there because a lot of people thought if they donate 1% the total is 1% (it's actually 1% donation + 1% fee = 2%). Or that if they set donation to 0% they pay nothing (actually the 1% fee is still there). I tried to make the pool fee more visible to clear up this confusion. I'll be lowering the donation requirements on several of the perks soon. For some reason dragons do not work well sharing a worker
The Dragon miners don't implement the Stratum mining protocol properly. They ignore the difficulty the server tells them to use and use whatever difficulty you set in the Dragon miner config. This is incredibly stupid and a violation of the stratum protocol. It can result in most of your work being wasted. Make sure you set a minimum difficulty on your Bitminter workers that is the same or higher than the difficulty you set in your Dragon miner config. If you already knew this, never mind Maybe the issue you are having is something completely different.




jjdub7


August 15, 2014, 09:14:33 AM 

Back to the christhegoth betspreading discussion...
Everyone realizes that switching over to other pools is only going to exacerbate the variance problem, right? Honestly, the pigeon superstition is dangerous enough to sink a pool, especially one that's <1% of the network. Nearly a quarter of the pool's hashrate has fallen off in the past couple of days...




christhegoth


August 15, 2014, 10:18:37 AM 

Im going to give this pool a try.. 1/4 1.2ths looks good i'll go full power
Welcome dude. We're in a dark patch at present ( as you can clearly read ), but when things improve move some more hash over and enjoy the ride. The golden rule is that it averages out over a month, not a week. I doubt this dark patch will last much longer. The rule of averages should kick in soon. A little hash at present is fine for a start. I have about 1.2 TH as well, and only have about 200 GH here at present




christhegoth


August 15, 2014, 10:29:06 AM 

Back to the christhegoth betspreading discussion...
Everyone realizes that switching over to other pools is only going to exacerbate the variance problem, right? Honestly, the pigeon superstition is dangerous enough to sink a pool, especially one that's <1% of the network. Nearly a quarter of the pool's hashrate has fallen off in the past couple of days...
It's about paying the electricity dude. Some of us can't do these bad weeks. Plus the price of BTC is dropping in the market, which piles the pressure on more. It's only £300 now, and it was £350 on Monday. I don't like it, but bills is bills. I need a certain amount of my payments safe to make sure I get the cash to cover said bills. It's just how it is I'm afraid. I'll also be honest: This has always been a small pool ( with a great GUI and customer service ). Losing 1/4 oh the Hash still leaves it a small pool. What we really need is for a couple of the Petahash Icelandic DataCentres to come over. Trying to nab lots of small miners, who in my experience have the higher electricity bills, is not gonna work. You need people with low electricity bills so that they can genuinely tough these bad patches out. People based near Solar and Wind farms are good ( Afirca? ), but the Icelandic mines are the obvious crowd to talk to. Even if they only divert 1/4 of their hash ( per business ) that's still some nice hash coming in. It's why Bitmine.ch are doing their hosting out that way. The problem is how Bitcoin and Electricity cost. We're in a bit of a perfect storm at present by the looks of it. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/coinfloorGBP#rg120ztgTzm1g10zm2g25A bad week or two in the pool is one thing, but we've got a price drop coming in at the same time. It really does hit the small miners I'm afraid.




christhegoth


August 15, 2014, 10:44:18 AM 

IMPORTANT FOR Antminer S3 Miners: At present times are tough. You can change the settings on your S3 to make things a bit better. SSH in using putty, and go to /etc/config . Then vi asicfreq. At present it should be set to a speed of 218 for the freq. Hash those settings out and unhash the settings for 175 freq. Save the document, and then reboot the miner. Your power consumption will drop by about 150 w, and you'll only lose 8090 GH. At present the S3 is running at 1.1 GH/w with a nice power supply. So it's slightly overclocked out of the box. By changing these settings you can up it to 1.3 GH/w or more. That means a better power profile, so less pressure on the electricity. That should help you ride out this storm a bit more. The thread is here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=699064.new;topicseen#newBut you aren't overclocking, you're underclocking. You're reducing the clockspeed. Hope that helps




