organofcorti
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August 14, 2014, 08:50:49 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks.







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christhegoth


August 14, 2014, 10:17:26 AM 

I didn't mean anything bad by not taking the 29 NMC for advertising. I am going to advertise and the pool does have coins for this. But if you want to donate something extra for advertisements, send BTC to: 14uS36iDCjXPB5c1XHSCWTWpH7RysqwkoZ NMC can be sold for BTC at btce.com or other exchanges. If you are good with graphical work you can make a banner for the pool (contact me). If you have a blog or other website you could mention the pool and link to it. Wordofmouth is one of the most important things. If someone is looking for a pool or looking to start mining, you can suggest this pool. And obviously, mine at Bitminter yourself. If you get any other ideas, send me a message or post it here. That's a few things for those who want to help the pool grow. All help is greatly appreciated. I am also working on a few ideas to improve the pool. More on that later. To address a few things that has come up in the last couple days: No the pool is not broken. Bad luck happens, just like good luck. We are now below 1% of the global hashpower though, so unlucky rounds take longer than before. You don't earn more the bigger a pool is, that's not how it works. The payouts may be further apart now, but they are also bigger. Variance is higher, but average income is the same. Your income is not dropping towards zero because the pool is smaller, making you unable to cash out. That is incorrect. Yes, sometimes there is a shift with zero pay. But shifts are often paid multiple times as well. You can see this at https://bitminter.com/stats/rewards which shows the payouts during the last 500 shifts. Sometimes the green line on the top graph hits the bottom (zero pay for a shift), but also notice how it goes up and down on certain "levels" depending on how many times each shift is paid (which again depends on how many blocks we found). From the bottom graph you can see we had plenty of good luck lately. But unfortunately the bad luck during the last week has cancelled out most of that at this point. We have to expect this to happen, good and bad luck cancelling each other out. But I can understand the last week has been rough. The yellow line (expected average) dropping in the top graph is because of the difficulty increases. The Doc is right. We've had a lot of good luck of late, so it's only natural to get a correction every once in a while ( good luck does not last forever after all ). The big pools may be safer for payments, but they do not pay better. They pay safer only. If Minter has some good luck compared to GHash then Minter will be the better paying pool. At present GHash is only winning due to this crappy week. We aren't dead yet




christhegoth


August 14, 2014, 10:23:23 AM 

I'll give it another 12 hours and see what happens. Why would we take the chance of hashing any time without a possible payout?
Because there is a symmetrical chance of getting twice the expected payout as there is of getting 0 payout. If you mine for 24 hours and get twice what you should have, and then mine another 24 hours and get nothing, you end up right where you should be. The chance of low payouts during a given timeframe is greater the smaller your pool is. At the exact same time, when a smaller pool gets lucky it pays out *significantly* better. The expected earnings is the same regardless, and so is the long term average. It's just a matter of how far you can deviate from expectations during that time frame (and the smaller the time frame, the greater that deviation can be).
Adding on that previous thought, if you want to attempt to refute it: Pooled mining as a whole works on the exact same principal. Every hash is equal, even though a user with 1 GH/s is statistically unlikely to ever find a block for the pool, and will siphon off a small piece of each block they participate in, they are still worth having. You will have users who have never mined a block for the pool (similar to your picking and choosing periods of time with no payment). You will have users who have mined significantly more blocks than expected for their hash rate. Average it all together over enough time and you should end up with the same number of blocks as you would have mined if it was just a single user mining with the pool's hashrate. OK so what I think your saying is take a guaranteed smaller payout on a larger site or have a chance at getting better "luck" and benefiting from it on a smaller site. I'm just thinking that the more block you can hash before the difficulty goes up the better. 3 days between blocks is horrible luck. I'm really hoping something else isn't gone wrong. Fahlcor Yes. Minter is a small pool. You will see the good luck here ( GHash is too big for you to see any luck ), but you will also see the bad luck. I think it's exciting, but then I only keep 2/5's of my hash here in good times. It always balances out in the long run, be it a big pool or a small pool; but in small pools you will feel the bumps in the road more.




christhegoth


August 14, 2014, 11:09:48 AM 

A quick reminder of how betspreading works: Ok; assume I have 6 S1's to mine with, and have solar power ( so they are still turning a good profit ). I do, however, still have bills to pay. Do I put all 6 in a pool where the payments can fluctuate a lot in their regularity? Can I afford it if all 6 miners have a bad week or two? Personally no I can't. I just can't. So... I put 2 miners on GHash, as you know the payments will be regular. I won't be able to see the good luck sure ( as the pool is so large ), but I won't take a hit from any bad luck ( as the pool is so large ). But... it'll be boring; and I want some excitement. As such I spread the other 4 across other pools. Based on a combination of size & performance. I might put another 2 on Eligius, as it's ~6 times the size of Minter so will still get a fairly stable payout ( but I might also feel the good and bad luck; so feel a little of the action/excitement, unlike with GHash ). And that still leaves 2 miners. If Minter is doing well I'll have both on Minter, but if Minter is having a bad patch I'll put 1 on Minter ( to keep my account alive ), and lob the other on GHash for a bit ( until Minter improves ). Just so I know my bills are being paid. Small Pools are HIGHLY cut & thrust. Like with Minter you really do feel it. It's the Wild Ride. Large Pools are very reliable, but that also makes them boring. You might just fall asleep. Middlesize Pools like Eligius are for those who can only handle a little bit of action. They are like Corporate Rock though; still pretty safe in reality. The real question is how much action do you ( the actual miner ) want? With those 6 S1's I could have 5 on GHash and one on Minter in bad times ( I'm getting bad luck ). Or I could have 2 on GHash and 4 on Minter if I am feeling braver ( my luck appears to be good ). Or I could stick all on Eligius, or... As a Miner you have a choice. ~ That's an example of betspreading. You can't predict the future, sure; but you can get some excitement in your life if you only gamble with a little bit of your hash ( not all of it ). ~ There's also nothing stopping you playing with multiple small pools. I won't name any small pools, out of respect to The Doc, but at the same time if you have 2 S1's per small pool ( Mining 3 small pools ) any bad luck in one pool should be smoothed out by the other 2 being either average or in good luck. Maximum cutandthrust, but also with a safety net should 1 pool go bad for a bit. 3 s3's? 1 per small pool will work the same way. ~ As the Miner you always get to choose. If you have bills to pay only stick a % of your hash in a smaller pool; rather than all of it. That way you can still have some fun; but at the same time you know your bills are covered too, as a big chunk of your hash is in a large safe pool paying out regular safe payments. Chasing luck: Ok, here we go. You can move miners from month to month chasing luck if you wish. But... It always takes the Pool a bit of time ( 45 days? ) to warm up to a new account. It is like a Casino or a day at The Horses. So you can win if you predict correctly; but... How do you predict the future? You can't; so it's your choice on how much you keep in a nice safe place like GHash, and how much you move around chasing good luck and trying to win a bit more. You can win in Casinos, but you can also lose. So choose wisely on how much you are going to gamble ( by gamble I mean how much are you going to move to a smaller pool ). ~ Me? I mine 4 pools. 2 big, 2 small. And I can divert hash from small to big pools based on how lucky I am feeling. If I feel I have run out of luck I move hash to the larger pools ( where the payments are safer ). If I am feeling daring I'll move hash to the smaller pools and see how it goes. Just my way, but it does prove fun. And there is a way out should I cock up ( as I can put hash in the bigger pools when needed ). But you NEVER judge a pool on just one week's results. Which is why Doc's graph is so handy. A lot of pools do not have that graph, so you have to choose for yourself based on what results you get in your wallet. Add to that how Doc's software just works ( unlike outofthebox cgminer, and how fiddly that can be ), and you're looking at a nice little pool with Minter. It may be better to have most of your hash in GHash at present ( and only a little here ) due to how our luck has dropped over the past week, but don't walk from Minter entirely. This pool does have it's moments. It's been a lot of fun over the past 3 months. Hope that makes sense




TaggedYa
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August 14, 2014, 11:21:20 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks.




organofcorti
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August 14, 2014, 02:42:49 PM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then?




marcus72ch
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August 14, 2014, 04:14:25 PM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ? Sorry, but this kind of math is somehow off from reality in my opinion. The last 2 weekends I was playing a bet high/low game with 80100.000 satoshis as capital starting from 1 with a chance of 1/3 and always doubled my bet each time I lost, so you would think with 100.000 you should have enough to double till you win again, but actually both weeks I lost all. the chance for that might be higher than 3 over 90% CDF blocks in a row, but in the end it's just that, Luck is a bitch and end of the story. I did not really get the matter with the CDF for blocks till Dr.Haribo explained me once in the chat and I lost around 40€ last week, so I'm not happy, but I do not think that luck cares about mathematical probabilities in the end.




DrHaribo
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August 14, 2014, 04:19:19 PM 

So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ?
The chance is always the same. It doesn't matter what luck you had yesterday  that's not going to affect luck today.




Minor Miner
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August 14, 2014, 05:53:00 PM 

Why don't you just put a simple luck indicator on the portal? On the big stats page instead of the dot graph? It could show the luck observed for the last 3 difficulty periods? Everyone could see it and you could just link to the page each time this comes up?




squall1066
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August 14, 2014, 07:31:52 PM 

I have jumped around alot of pools since I started mining years ago now (god I sound old hat at this) I have no problem sticking around in periods of bad luck, Last month the pool solved 56 blocks, Well, I had 56 payouts so it might not be totally accurate to the full calender month, However, Last month I earned more on bitminter than any calculator said I would, I really believe it's a case of rough with the smooth. If I have to say anything (criticizing) about the pool, I need to donate half a percent to have more than 5 workers, But There is a 1% fee on this donation This is ontop of the 1% PPLNS, Dont get me wrong, I like to donate a bit to keep things running, I just see the fee as an excuse to get more from people who use benefits. Before anyone says "just dont use more than 5 workers dumb ass, You can point as many as you like to one worker" Well no actually for two reasons, Firstly, For some reason dragons do not work well sharing a worker, I have no idea why, Also, As I host in different locations, I like to see where is not producing the hash power I pay for so I dont have to go around asking everyone to check my miners are working. Keep up the good work Dr.

Bitrated user: squall1066.



theweiss
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August 14, 2014, 08:01:02 PM 

Its nice to see the Hero and Legendary members jumping back in to the conversation. We really need to make sure everyone gets this whole luck and randomness thing (i.e. nothing that has happened in the past has any relevance to the future).
Its been really disappointing to see the hash rate dropping during this tough time. I understand that some people really can't keep the lights on with these low moments but if your bankroll is stable enough there's no reason to jump around.




SgtMoth


August 14, 2014, 08:18:59 PM 

btw...sold some miners, didnt leave the pool.




squall1066
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August 14, 2014, 09:05:40 PM 

Its nice to see the Hero and Legendary members jumping back in to the conversation. We really need to make sure everyone gets this whole luck and randomness thing (i.e. nothing that has happened in the past has any relevance to the future).
Its been really disappointing to see the hash rate dropping during this tough time. I understand that some people really can't keep the lights on with these low moments but if your bankroll is stable enough there's no reason to jump around.
That is so true, I used to leave for greener pastures after a pools "bad" bit, And I just kept on chasing bad luck after bad luck, We really have to tough it out! btw...sold some miners, didnt leave the pool.
Thats good news, What have you got lined up for the next stint?

Bitrated user: squall1066.



SgtMoth


August 14, 2014, 10:44:38 PM 

sp30 with any luck...as long as bitcoin doesnt go any lower




philipma1957
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A new tool for prediction https://bitvol.info/


August 15, 2014, 12:10:27 AM 

SgtMoth let me know how you like the sp30. I got some more s3's today. I point one here. I pointed 1 at btcguild.
In house I now have 6 s3's .
I have an Asiminer tube coming (sounds like porn a bit)
Seems to be very low cost 1.04 btc for around 800 gh. you need a psu. and it will burn about 800 watts.
So it is okay with btc at 500 a coin. you buy a 1.04 btc for 525usd . this could pay off if you have a good psu on hand. I should get this on the 20th I will post back on it.

Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to : 1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.



iplabs
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August 15, 2014, 03:03:40 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? The cumulative distribution function is a percentage probability charted with an "S" curve. It charts the probability of finding an answer with x number of tries. So 99.33% means that there is a 99.33% chance that we should have found a block with that number of shares. There can never be a 100% chance since, as was mentioned, the chance always resets with each try. So when you reach 99% you can never reach 100% probability from there making the 99th percentile infinitely long as it can go on forever if an answer is never reached. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_function




organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


August 15, 2014, 03:31:26 AM 

The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.
I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100. If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty. In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks. That's not even close to infinite. Actually it is multiplicative not additive. Thus it is one in 10,000. Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months. I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event. No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. We are not discussing one event. We are discussing 2 events and now a third. Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred. However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand. The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks. So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then? The cumulative distribution function is a percentage probability charted with an "S" curve. It charts the probability of finding an answer with x number of tries. So 99.33% means that there is a 99.33% chance that we should have found a block with that number of shares. There can never be a 100% chance since, as was mentioned, the chance always resets with each try. So when you reach 99% you can never reach 100% probability from there making the 99th percentile infinitely long as it can go on forever if an answer is never reached. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulative_distribution_functionWhy are you repeating me? Are you implying I didnt explain all that clearly? You may be correct.




nocroom


August 15, 2014, 04:01:37 AM 

Im going to give this pool a try.. 1/4 1.2ths looks good i'll go full power




Ososober
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August 15, 2014, 07:02:59 AM 

well, i just got delivery of my 6 bit fury twins, got them going, and now hashing not at 4.5ghs, but 26ghs, slowly building but definitely getting there, im adding to the pool, albeit slowly, just have to get more usb hubs, can anyone recommend any (in the $20$30 us$ range)




DrHaribo
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August 15, 2014, 07:29:00 AM 

I need to donate half a percent to have more than 5 workers, But There is a 1% fee on this donation No, that 1% is the pool fee which is taken out of the block income before miners are paid. I put the "(+1% fee)" in there because a lot of people thought if they donate 1% the total is 1% (it's actually 1% donation + 1% fee = 2%). Or that if they set donation to 0% they pay nothing (actually the 1% fee is still there). I tried to make the pool fee more visible to clear up this confusion. I'll be lowering the donation requirements on several of the perks soon. For some reason dragons do not work well sharing a worker
The Dragon miners don't implement the Stratum mining protocol properly. They ignore the difficulty the server tells them to use and use whatever difficulty you set in the Dragon miner config. This is incredibly stupid and a violation of the stratum protocol. It can result in most of your work being wasted. Make sure you set a minimum difficulty on your Bitminter workers that is the same or higher than the difficulty you set in your Dragon miner config. If you already knew this, never mind Maybe the issue you are having is something completely different.




