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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916424 times)
8up
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September 23, 2015, 11:02:06 AM
Last edit: September 23, 2015, 11:25:32 AM by 8up
 #3801



I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!

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September 23, 2015, 11:21:31 AM
 #3802



I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!




325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...
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September 23, 2015, 11:24:28 AM
 #3803



I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!




325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...




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.
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8up
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September 23, 2015, 11:30:52 AM
 #3804



I came to the conclusion, that 200 MA is a minor support/resistance line compared to the pre-bubble(s) support line (lasting for 2.5 years). Coincidentally they are close to each other at current valuation.

Keep in mind, that this market is heavily manipulated and big investors will also try to protect their bitcoin holdings. This is why I'd like to call this line the "defense line".
Therefore my best guess is, we will see a mild rally from here (to around $350) and a third retest of this line until bitcoin is ripe for real bubble-mode. This finally could happen coincidentally (or planned!) after block size solution will be found and halving is just around the corner in early summer 2016. Storytelling (for the masses) is an important part of bitcoins' success!




325, 450

Scary stuff.

205-210 must NOT break...



 You're right. Could easily go as high as $450. But in any case. The "defense line" must not break. Otherwise... Hell yeah. At least no one will demand a block size solution by then.  Grin

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September 23, 2015, 11:42:26 AM
 #3805

Theodore Modis is right - BTC is following log growth (S curve) and not an expo one. It seems that it normalised now to an S curve:




The "defense line" must not break. Otherwise... Hell yeah. At least no one will demand a block size solution by then.  Grin
Though I have a feeling we will retest it before going upwards again...
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September 23, 2015, 12:24:49 PM
Last edit: September 23, 2015, 12:35:13 PM by 8up
 #3806

Theodore Modis is right - BTC is following log growth (S curve) and not an expo one. It seems that it normalised now to an S curve:




The "defense line" must not break. Otherwise... Hell yeah. At least no one will demand a block size solution by then.  Grin
Though I have a feeling we will retest it before going upwards again...

This (S curve thing) sounds legit. BTW: I don't expect it to retest the line in the short term. One more week of stability (flowing around 223-233) and then an impulsive up-tick like in May 2014 seems more reasonable.


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September 23, 2015, 12:37:09 PM
 #3807

Drawing a trend line in that manner is nonsense because as long as the current price is higher than some other price in the past there will always be a possibility to do that.  The empirical extrapolation power of a trend line is proportional to how closely it follows the actual price. Doing that at price extrema you then get the worst possible one you can draw.
In other words a trend line only makes sense if it appears the price tries to "stick" to it, otherwise it's useless to do it.
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September 23, 2015, 12:42:29 PM
 #3808

[...]

Anyhow: I think something's wrong with that 200 week moving average you are showing. I think it's wrong (it's too damn high). Maybe not enough data or something.

[...]

bitcoinwisdom is doing it right, btw: not displaying the line at all if there's less than 200 samples in the past.

(aside)

I wrote a crude little extrapolation script on TV, i.e. takes an average definition, and, if set to a history length N that is beyond the available data a time instant n, it calculates the 'undefined' segment up to n by giving equal weight to the /available/ values at point n over length N (the extrapolation part), and from the point on when there is enough data for N, it shows the average in a different color to mark that the values are now based on sufficient data. I'll see if I can dig it up, might be helpful for cases like this.

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September 23, 2015, 12:48:19 PM
 #3809

Drawing a trend line in that manner is nonsense because as long as the current price is higher than some other price in the past there will always be a possibility to do that.  The empirical extrapolation power of a trend line is proportional to how closely it follows the actual price. Doing that at price extrema you then get the worst possible one you can draw.
In other words a trend line only makes sense if it appears the price tries to "stick" to it, otherwise it's useless to do it.
Can you draw one of yours??
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September 23, 2015, 12:54:54 PM
 #3810

Drawing a trend line in that manner is nonsense because as long as the current price is higher than some other price in the past there will always be a possibility to do that.  The empirical extrapolation power of a trend line is proportional to how closely it follows the actual price. Doing that at price extrema you then get the worst possible one you can draw.
In other words a trend line only makes sense if it appears the price tries to "stick" to it, otherwise it's useless to do it.

I suppose, if it is "nonsense" lies in the eye of the beholder. Am certainly interested in some of your interpretations/examples of the current situation/trend.

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September 23, 2015, 02:14:59 PM
 #3811

What the lines represent, is actually the curve fitting of a specific series of (at first glance random) numbers over a diagram that represents the price of an asset (in this case BTC). Imagine it like you have a car that follows a specific route while driving in a desert where there's no road at all. The function is a y=f(x) where there are several ways to determine if the car is accelerating or decelerating (usually taking the 1st & 2nd derivatives).

Unfortunately, the case is not as simple as it seems, for most of the assets and/or stocks. Chances are you're reverse engineered the curve right (or a sophisticated program like Matlab did it for you) nevertheless, it seems that most of the time the predictions about the price going north or south is respective to outside of this world factors.

The most intriguing story I've ever read for the last couple of months (maybe more) was the one of Martin Armstrong who has been successful in predicting several crashes in the past couple of decades while claiming he has found the way to calculate the "circles" history makes. This may sound bogus to people like me and I've even tried to defy it presenting scientific facts based on Deterministic Chaos theory of Edward Lorenz, but despite my efforts, and contrary to science, his model seems to be working.  Cheesy

If this is happening, and this guy is for real; I really want to meet him for he managed to solve the greatest mystery of the Universe and he deserves a Nobel Prize. This simply works for -literally- EVERYTHING! For what its worth; I'm still watching his space for 2015.75; even though, just today, he tries to rephrase / clarify his prediction.

Tick Tock...  Roll Eyes

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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September 23, 2015, 02:22:58 PM
 #3812

What the lines represent, is actually the curve fitting of a specific series of (at first glance random) numbers over a diagram that represents the price of an asset (in this case BTC). Imagine it like you have a car that follows a specific route while driving in a desert where there's no road at all. The function is a y=f(x) where there are several ways to determine if the car is accelerating or decelerating (usually taking the 1st derivative).

Unfortunately, the case is not as simple as it seems, for most of the assets and/or stocks. Chances are you're reverse engineered the curve right (or a sophisticated program like Matlab did it for you) nevertheless, it seems that most of the time the predictions about the price going north or south is respective to outside of this world factors.

The most intriguing story I've ever read for the last couple of months (maybe more) was the one of Martin Armstrong who has been successful in predicting several crashes in the past couple of decades while claiming he has found the way to calculate the "circles" history makes. This may sound bogus to people like me and I've even tried to defy it presenting scientific facts based on Deterministic Chaos theory of Edward Lorenz, but despite my efforts, and contrary to science, his model seems to be working.  Cheesy

If this is happening, and this guy is for real; I really want to meet him for he managed to solve the greatest mystery of the Universe and he deserves a Nobel Prize. This simply works for -literally- EVERYTHING! For what its worth; I'm still watching his space for 2015.75; eventhough he tries to rephrase / clarify his prediction.

Tick Tock...  Roll Eyes

I also read it. IMO it works as long as most/many others can not see the pattern he describes. Once people start to see/become "enlightened", his model will fall apart. I guess he even knows this.

There is enough room left for an exciting up- and downswing in the next quarter. So little doom after a mild rally and consecutive retest of the defense line or huge doom as soon as the defense line is breached. So totally in line with MA.

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September 23, 2015, 02:39:58 PM
 #3813

What the lines represent, is actually the curve fitting of a specific series of (at first glance random) numbers over a diagram that represents the price of an asset (in this case BTC). Imagine it like you have a car that follows a specific route while driving in a desert where there's no road at all. The function is a y=f(x) where there are several ways to determine if the car is accelerating or decelerating (usually taking the 1st derivative).

Unfortunately, the case is not as simple as it seems, for most of the assets and/or stocks. Chances are you're reverse engineered the curve right (or a sophisticated program like Matlab did it for you) nevertheless, it seems that most of the time the predictions about the price going north or south is respective to outside of this world factors.

The most intriguing story I've ever read for the last couple of months (maybe more) was the one of Martin Armstrong who has been successful in predicting several crashes in the past couple of decades while claiming he has found the way to calculate the "circles" history makes. This may sound bogus to people like me and I've even tried to defy it presenting scientific facts based on Deterministic Chaos theory of Edward Lorenz, but despite my efforts, and contrary to science, his model seems to be working.  Cheesy

If this is happening, and this guy is for real; I really want to meet him for he managed to solve the greatest mystery of the Universe and he deserves a Nobel Prize. This simply works for -literally- EVERYTHING! For what its worth; I'm still watching his space for 2015.75; eventhough he tries to rephrase / clarify his prediction.

Tick Tock...  Roll Eyes

I also read it. IMO it works as long as most/many others can not see the pattern he describes. Once people start to see/become "enlightened", his model will fall apart. I guess he even knows this.

There is enough room left for an exciting up- and downswing in the next quarter. So little doom after a mild rally and consecutive retest of the defense line or huge doom as soon as the defense line is breached. So totally in line with MA.

EXACTLY! I'm happy that -at least- another one gets it. It's like tampering with the initial conditions of a chaotic model. After one (or many) start playing with the "pendulum" then the pendulum will follow another (unpredictable) trajectory. Like I said, I may be wrong, but I think it's worth waiting to see what's gonna happen Smiley

Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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September 23, 2015, 02:42:04 PM
 #3814


I also read it. IMO it works as long as most/many others can not see the pattern he describes. Once people start to see/become "enlightened", his model will fall apart. I guess he even knows this.

Armstrong's response would probably be along the lines of 'People will always be people' and that the forces he forecasts are bigger than any government/bank therefore he doesn't seem to have any worry of his cycles being 'discovered' by masses of people. As people acting like people is what gives his model credibility. I hope I'm not scrambling that too badly!




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klee
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September 23, 2015, 02:42:30 PM
 #3815

What I fail to grasp is why so much drama if EVERYTHING falls? Short the hell out of everything and the speed you will make dollars will compensate for the value it may lose in real life terms...

Pffff, these old school traders (MA, Thomas Dorsey) who hate to be on the short side of the market.

Also, there is a thing called hedging....

EDIT: The trader's nightmare is a stable market, not a turbulent one.

O καλός o καπετάνιoς στη φoυρτoύνα φαίνεται.
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September 23, 2015, 02:53:03 PM
 #3816

What I fail to grasp is why so much drama if EVERYTHING falls? Short the hell out of everything and the speed you will make dollars will compensate for the value it may lose in real life terms...

Pffff, these old school traders (MA, Thomas Dorsey) who hate to be on the short side of the market.

Also, there is a thing called hedging....

EDIT: The trader's nightmare is a stable market, not a turbulent one.

O καλός o καπετάνιoς στη φoυρτoύνα φαίνεται.

Nice quote, klee. I guess it is peoples (including an overhelmingly number of bitcoiners) wish for positivity/growth vs. negativity/death. Not seeing, that plus and minus make the thing whole. To be seen as a prophet by the masses (maybe MA blind spot!?) one needs to preach "positivity".

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September 23, 2015, 03:38:49 PM
 #3817

What I fail to grasp is why so much drama if EVERYTHING falls? Short the hell out of everything and the speed you will make dollars will compensate for the value it may lose in real life terms...

Pffff, these old school traders (MA, Thomas Dorsey) who hate to be on the short side of the market.

Also, there is a thing called hedging....

EDIT: The trader's nightmare is a stable market, not a turbulent one.

O καλός o καπετάνιoς στη φoυρτoύνα φαίνεται.
Well if the market goes down we can win some money but if the market goes up we can all become very rich. The payoff is asymetric.

edit: I talk about the BTC market specifically.
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September 23, 2015, 04:59:46 PM
 #3818

What I fail to grasp is why so much drama if EVERYTHING falls? Short the hell out of everything and the speed you will make dollars will compensate for the value it may lose in real life terms...
Pffff, these old school traders (MA, Thomas Dorsey) who hate to be on the short side of the market.
Also, there is a thing called hedging....
EDIT: The trader's nightmare is a stable market, not a turbulent one.

As always, fair points. In case everything falls apart, I don't think that having BTC or USD/EUR in your bank account will matter anymore. BTC will definitely need the internet to exist even if that consists of my two USB miners and two laptops on the intranet of my neighborhood in order to make a transaction. In case of emergency, I guess some cash will come handy but only for a few days up to a month. After that knowledge of planting / hunting will become crucial for your existence. A remote place is also a nice place to be.

O καλός o καπετάνιoς στη φoυρτoύνα φαίνεται.
Well, in this case, I prefer to be LOADED! Grin

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September 23, 2015, 05:59:46 PM
 #3819

Drawing a trend line in that manner is nonsense because as long as the current price is higher than some other price in the past there will always be a possibility to do that.  The empirical extrapolation power of a trend line is proportional to how closely it follows the actual price. Doing that at price extrema you then get the worst possible one you can draw.
In other words a trend line only makes sense if it appears the price tries to "stick" to it, otherwise it's useless to do it.

I suppose, if it is "nonsense" lies in the eye of the beholder. Am certainly interested in some of your interpretations/examples of the current situation/trend.

not much a "trend" at the moment. more like choppy/whipsaw range.

the trouble with trend lines and moving averages in choppy (ie trendless) price action is they just aren't effective.

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September 23, 2015, 06:06:29 PM
 #3820


I also read it. IMO it works as long as most/many others can not see the pattern he describes. Once people start to see/become "enlightened", his model will fall apart. I guess he even knows this.

Armstrong's response would probably be along the lines of 'People will always be people' and that the forces he forecasts are bigger than any government/bank therefore he doesn't seem to have any worry of his cycles being 'discovered' by masses of people. As people acting like people is what gives his model credibility. I hope I'm not scrambling that too badly!
I just wonder if his prescription of young (financially screwed atm) people will indeed get politically active and take on the establishment in the US's one party system: the right which compromises w/ the left so the welfare and warfare state just keeps increasing which squeezes out the productive capacity for middle class jobs for those coming out of college and keeping interest rates low so baby boomers must keep working. Sanders and Paul are ginning up the campuses nationwide but only Rand's plan  to restore liberty across the board is going to change anything for the better. This is the main reason I post about Rand's prez campaign in politics so at least the US bitcoiners can stay on top of things.
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