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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917025 times)
zby
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September 12, 2015, 12:06:17 PM
 #3701

Out of short term downtrend



Out of long term log downtrend



Unusual volume activity near weekly 200 sma



I am neutral-bullish and still consider downtrend from ATH went to history.
Nice!

Regarding the volume activity, IMO is mostly because of people entering Bitstamp again after leaving Bitfinex.

Yeah - it is just Bitstamp that has high volumes - but why should people go to stamp from finex?
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September 12, 2015, 12:49:27 PM
 #3702

You already forgot bitfinex' trade engine errors in the last month ? Everyone is afraid of a second MtGox.
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September 12, 2015, 01:20:20 PM
 #3703

Out of short term downtrend?

I have to say that your line looks quite different in log space.

http://i.imgur.com/utPrd4h.jpg
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September 12, 2015, 01:26:44 PM
 #3704

Thanks for the update, luc. Much appreciated, as always.


One idea, related to your (log) trendlines... Previously during this bear market, I believe we went through a pair of "accelerating downtrends", as in: the downwards channel / upper trendline from Dec 2013 to June/July 2014 was replaced by a new, even sharper downtrend, that lasted from July 2014 to June 2015.

If that's an accurate way to look at it, it also makes me wonder if the way out this bear market is perhaps not by going straight to another upwards channel (unlikely anyway, as you said yourself, or even by going directly into an extended flat period, but whether perhaps the market first has to go through one more downwards trend, albeit, one that is this time less severe than the previous one.

Which, roughly, could look like this:



Yes, I know, not much points on the upper line so far. Like I said, I wonder if that *could* happen, not that the data already supports this *has* happened. Also, if you think the lower line looks like it's broken way too often, I consider this channel to be active from ~April only, so it's outside the date range.


Anyway, it's more of a idle thought than a prediction I'm much committed to. One thing: if this channel would be active, as severe as it looks (since it could take price to a new LL), it does actually have a lower rate of decline than the previous channel, from July to June, so it would fit the idea of being a "less sharp dowtrend replacing the previous, sharper one" (despite taking it to a new low).


(EDIT) Very sloppy illustration of what I mean by "one DT replacing another one"...



From #1 (yellow) to #2 (orange), which was sharper down, from #2 to #3 (red), which is less sharp down.

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September 12, 2015, 01:53:54 PM
 #3705

@oda.krell: it may look less severe than the previous one because the moves take longer. How severe it will be we'll only know when hitting major bottoms.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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September 12, 2015, 02:02:23 PM
 #3706

@oda.krell: it may look less severe than the previous one because the moves take longer. How severe it will be we'll only know when hitting major bottoms.

I guess I was a bit sloppy in how I phrased it... I meant it is "less severe" in a certain (well defined) sense: the rate of decline is lower than the rate of decline of the previous one.

But of course, in absolute terms, it could be seen as "more severe", since it would mean that price might make a new LL if it turns out to hold.

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September 12, 2015, 03:00:33 PM
 #3707



Yeah - it is just Bitstamp that has high volumes - but why should people go to stamp from finex?


Finex doesn't comply with New York Bitlicense, nor does OKCoin. Bitstamp does or is trying to (haven't checked lately).

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September 12, 2015, 03:17:43 PM
Last edit: September 12, 2015, 03:34:57 PM by phoenix1
 #3708



Yeah - it is just Bitstamp that has high volumes - but why should people go to stamp from finex?


Finex doesn't comply with New York Bitlicense, nor does OKCoin. Bitstamp does or is trying to (haven't checked lately).

Gotta say there looks to me like there is something duboius about Stamp volumes. What is up with the 49.99 BTC bot that is constantly running there semmingly at a loss for the last couple of weeks ( hard to tell without seeing all the trade data, it might be marginally profitable, but it consistently executes a sell order at a lower price than its last buy order, within seconds, and vice versa, which just looks 'off'). There appears to be  49 BTC bot too (and multiples thereof). To me it, it looks like wash trades to give the appearance of accumulation/activity, and to make it look like this is something other than a VERY low volume rally.
Until I hear a good explanation for these, I dont trust this sudden volume increase, thought the reason you give is valid and may account for some of it. TBH, for Stamp to have the volumes they claim, in a VERY quiet market, simply does not look right ...

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September 12, 2015, 03:34:32 PM
 #3709



Yeah - it is just Bitstamp that has high volumes - but why should people go to stamp from finex?


Finex doesn't comply with New York Bitlicense, nor does OKCoin. Bitstamp does or is trying to (haven't checked lately).

Gotta say there looks to me like there is something duboius about Stamp volumes. What is up with the 49.99 BTC bot that is constantly running there semmingly at a loss for the last couple of weeks ( hard to tell without seeing all the trade data, it might be marginally profitable, but it consistently executes a sell order at a lower price than its last buy order, within seconds, and vice versa, which just looks 'off'). There appears to be  49 BTC bot too (and multiples thereof). To me it, it looks like wash trades to give the appearance of accumulation/activity, and to make it look like this is something other than a VERY low volume rally.
Until I hear a good explanation for these, I dont trust this sudden volume increase, thought the reasons you give are all valid and may account for some of it. TBH, for Stamp to have the volumes they claim, in a VERY quiet market, simply does not look right ...
Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).
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September 12, 2015, 03:38:57 PM
 #3710


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that

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September 12, 2015, 03:49:38 PM
 #3711


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that

This is getting OT, but could it be Stamp doing fee-less arb with other exchanges or allowing certain market makers to arb without fees?

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September 12, 2015, 03:56:13 PM
 #3712


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that

This is getting OT, but could it be Stamp doing fee-less arb with other exchanges or allowing certain market makers to arb without fees?

Yeh, sorry for the e OT, but i think its important here as Masterluc has highlighted it himself as  'Unusual volume activity near weekly 200 sma'. If there was arb, the other side would show up as increased volume on another exchange  Wink
FWIW, here are the last 6 trades from that bot, (from Bitcoinwisdom)

15:50:41  239       49.99  buy

15:53:13  238.14   49.99  sell

15:58:01  239.13   49.99  buy

16:02:04  237.65   49.99  sell

16:10:16  238.98   49.99  buy

16:11:49  237.72   49.99  sell

Can't see how this could be arb - no other market is even moving and this bot is creating the relative 'volatility' on Stamp, lifting offers and hitting bids and giving away money ... (*IF* it is the same entity every time)


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September 12, 2015, 03:58:25 PM
 #3713


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that
I know better  Wink

EDIT: Coinarch is using Bitfinex for it's trades, it allows only a max of 1000usd per trade, with leverage x2 x3...x10
So at times where the price is a bit stable like now, you see many 1000x10/price_BTC orders (or 1000x5/price_BTC etc)
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September 12, 2015, 04:14:03 PM
 #3714


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that
I know better  Wink

EDIT: Coinarch is using Bitfinex for it's trades, it allows only a max of 1000usd per trade, with leverage x2 x3...x10
So at times where the price is a bit stable like now, you see many 1000x10/price_BTC orders (or 1000x5/price_BTC etc)

Hmmm, so some leveraged platform that offers max trade size of 49.99BTC (after leverage) may be taking the other side of the trades and routing them through Bitstamp to hedge. Possible I guess. Still seems odd that every time I have watched it, it constantly alternates direction     -sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy- . I am yet to see 2 trades consecutive trades in the same direction with the 49.99bot  Undecided (though I admit, I have not watched it for hours on end, nor analysed all the trade data)


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September 12, 2015, 04:23:00 PM
 #3715


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that
I know better  Wink

EDIT: Coinarch is using Bitfinex for it's trades, it allows only a max of 1000usd per trade, with leverage x2 x3...x10
So at times where the price is a bit stable like now, you see many 1000x10/price_BTC orders (or 1000x5/price_BTC etc)

Hmmm, so some leveraged platform that offers max trade size of <50BTC (after leverage) may be taking the other side of the trades and routing them through Bitstamp to hedge. Possible I guess. Still seems odd that every time I have wathced it, it constantly alternates direction     -sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy- . I am yet to see 2 trades consecutive trades in the same direction with the 49.99bot  Undecided (though I admit, I have not watched it for hours on end, nor analysed all the trade data)


btc.sx allow margin trading on stamp but i never tried it
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September 12, 2015, 04:24:55 PM
 #3716


Market Maker or some exchange we don't know of yet that is playing margin on Stamp (like coinarch on Finex).

Stamp does not offer margin as far as I know. Also, it seems to be giving away money with every trade. Odd behaviour for a market maker ...
Can you say more about coinarch on Finex? I don't know anything about that
I know better  Wink

EDIT: Coinarch is using Bitfinex for it's trades, it allows only a max of 1000usd per trade, with leverage x2 x3...x10
So at times where the price is a bit stable like now, you see many 1000x10/price_BTC orders (or 1000x5/price_BTC etc)

Hmmm, so some leveraged platform that offers max trade size of 49.99BTC (after leverage) may be taking the other side of the trades and routing them through Bitstamp to hedge. Possible I guess. Still seems odd that every time I have watched it, it constantly alternates direction     -sell-buy-sell-buy-sell-buy- . I am yet to see 2 trades consecutive trades in the same direction with the 49.99bot  Undecided (though I admit, I have not watched it for hours on end, nor analysed all the trade data)


Actually I have seen many 2x49.99 orders and 3x49.99 too.
So maybe 50 is 1:1, 100 is 2:1 and 150 3:1 leverage (minus the fees)
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September 12, 2015, 04:39:26 PM
 #3717

On OKCoin and BTCChina the 12h PSAR just flipped to bearish. On Bitstamp and BTC-E it had flipped several days ago.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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September 12, 2015, 05:17:37 PM
 #3718

@oda.krell: it may look less severe than the previous one because the moves take longer. How severe it will be we'll only know when hitting major bottoms.

I guess I was a bit sloppy in how I phrased it... I meant it is "less severe" in a certain (well defined) sense: the rate of decline is lower than the rate of decline of the previous one.

But of course, in absolute terms, it could be seen as "more severe", since it would mean that price might make a new LL if it turns out to hold.

Both of you are right.

One possible reason for decline in 'rate of fall' would a measure sentiment ie longer periods of indecision are now required to convince masses to buy (or sell). Perhaps implying we are close to the bottom as it is increasingly taking longer to convince people to let go of their coins.



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September 15, 2015, 05:39:28 AM
 #3719

reversed cup & handle? 
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September 15, 2015, 09:37:35 PM
 #3720



Looks more like a forming head and shoulders to me.
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