Analysis

[windjc]

I have a hard time seeing a 2 year long bear market, there would have to be terrible news. I guess a crash from 70k and an exchange closing might do, time will tell.

There won't be a 2 year bear market. There will be a 6 year bear market.

But before that there will be one final push far above 20k.

Well, Id love to know how this bull market is 3x more powerful than the last 2. It certainly doesn't look that way on the log chart.

And its pretty vague to say we go "far above 20k" when predicting exact consequences of such "power".

[Biodom]

We are near the top imo.

http://www.bus.umich.edu/KresgePublic/Journals/Gartner/research/115200/115274/115274_0001.gif

Why would we be near the long term top when hype just started two-three mo ago or even at thanksgiving in earnest?
% of people with real wallets-not more than 5%, maybe even less.

To me this sounds like Internet circa 1996, maybe 1997.
I do consider the latest 'crash' to be an equivalent of the 1997 LTCM related "crash".
The internet "bubble" continued for 2-2.5 years afterwards.

We still have to have the mass participation here.
Once we get over 15% of the populace, then, maybe, we will be at the top with $2-4 tril or maybe even $8 tril market cap for all things crypto.

[snowdropfore]

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

[itod]

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

As far as I've understood he said if we touch 10K again it's double bottom and right to 70K after that, and if we go now to 2-5K instead of 10K then right up to 100K after that.

[Hope_Trader]

what did masterluc mean in his post?? does that mean we are in bear market now?? going down to 2k-5k??  i think i need to holding my coins when the price going up to 70k .do not panic.

As far as I've understood he said if we touch 10K again it's double bottom and right to 70K after that, and if we go now to 2-5K instead of 10K then right up to 100K after that.

To avoid confusion, the only "right up to" is "2. The classic output bitcoin from the bear trap is bluntly up. At 70k. Up to a month"

Other options he suggested were a long bear market, then upto 100k, or 2 month-ish ranging then continuation.

Personally I think 2 is the least probable at this stage. Let's see how the next price action unfolds...

[greensheep]

1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two

flag wedge a pennant? whats this ?

[Millionero]

1. The giant triangle from 20k to 10k (+/- maybe a little lower) - with a further exit under 70k. Well, or some kind of consolidation - a flag, a wedge, a pennant ... A month or two

flag wedge a pennant? whats this ?

Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

[greensheep]

Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could  

[Hope_Trader]

Three words for the same thing.  It's a chart pattern where the price fluctuates in a range that gets narrower and narrower, like the triangular shape of a pennant.  When you finally get to the point of the triangle, the expectation is that the price will break out -- either up or down.

Ok, seems thus like we are having a OR a positive outcome OR something between bad and good which can end both ways OR worst case scenario back to six months ago and several years of nothing interesting and then moon.
Looks like a mexican standoff now, everybody is looking at everybody, what just happened and what is gonna happen now.
Fascinating but also scary as hell
I'm thinking rather 1 or 2, 3 is actually doomsday scenario to me, but it sure could  

this is precisely why I think ranging similar to post April 2013 is on the cards. Traders will trade both sides, the range will get tighter, and eventually we'll continue upwards. Too many long term bulls for this to really drop IMO. Despite the propensity towards mass panic for all the newcomers, I'm sure enough have been indoctrinated into the hodl mentality by now, and also enough experienced bitcoin traders who've seen it all before ready to scoop up coins at key levels. 

Luc hasn't really given us much here, he's given us the classic "up, down or sideways" possibles that a market always has. All of them end in up though, ofc

[Millionero]

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.
B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.

[MrBigHang]

The latest weekly candle from bitstamp
https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zigWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

How does this relate to what Vanga said here

In any case, we must look at the weekly candle - as it closes. If 10k will stand on a week level, if it does not hit the previous week bottom - the price will soon recover and popret further.
B любoм cлyчae нaдo cмoтpeть нa нeдeльнyю cвeчy - кaк oнa зaкpoeтcя. Ecли 10к ycтoит нa нeдeльнoм ypoвнe, ecли нe yдapит в пpeдыдyщee нeдeльнoe днo - цeнa вcкope вoccтaнoвитcя и пoпpeт дaльшe.

This is how I interpret it. 

a)  We must stay above 10k for the next few weeks.
b)  For this part, we need at least a second week to compare candles.  Week two candle's bottom should not hit the bottom of the previous week's candle.  The Investopedia term for this is a higher low.  The lowest of each week should be higher as we progress.  View picture of a higher low below.

Example here.
http://fxbinarypoint.com/attachments/ch-png.11/

[Millionero]

He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle.  If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.

[Pruden]

He said we must look at the closing of the weekly candle.  If it's above the previous week's bottom -- we recover.
But does previous week's bottom mean the previous week's closing or the previous week's low (the wick)?
Taken literally, the previous week's bottom is the lowest price of the week, in other words the candle wick.
Which would mean we still have breathing room.

It's done. The week he was talking about is over. We closed above the previous week's low, which prevented an ugly reversal candle.

[Biodom]

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better .

[btcone111]

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better .

Thank you so much for translating immediately what he has posted! Really appreciate it!

[JayJuanGee]

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better .

Seems quite a bit premature for MasterLuc to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k.  Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.  

Sure MasterLuc is correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

[Biodom]

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better .

Seems quite a bit premature to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k.  Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.  

You are correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

EDIT: I see that you corrected it 'tis wasn't me...I simply looked over google translate of what ML wrote and edited it a little to smooth over GT's rough edges.
my personal opinion is...no opinion. 62% fib did not even happened yet. Overall, I agree that it would be strange to go down hard at this juncture.

[Joe200]

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

[Biodom]

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

[Joe200]

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .