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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923622 times)
Biodom
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December 25, 2017, 12:01:54 AM
 #5621

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink.
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btcone111
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December 25, 2017, 12:53:16 AM
 #5622

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink.

Thank you so much for translating immediately what he has posted! Really appreciate it!
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December 25, 2017, 01:12:44 AM
 #5623

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink.

Seems quite a bit premature for MasterLuc to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k.  Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.  

Sure MasterLuc is correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Biodom
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December 25, 2017, 01:19:29 AM
 #5624

latest, translated:

The patient does not look too well short term. Perhaps, more downside, but perhaps not.
The move up is still ahead [means it is not happening yet].

My interpretation: inconclusive, but i hope that his spine feels better Wink.

Seems quite a bit premature to assert that the "patient does not look too well short term", no?

We only recently broke above $10k, and pretty much went straight to $19.6k.  Yeah, after breaching $10k, there was nearly an immediate 27% correction from $11,350 to $9k, but the BTC price going from $10k to $19.6k was pretty fast.

It seems that we are also experiencing a pretty decent BTC price battle, now, with decently high trade volume.  

You are correct that the BTC price could resolve either UP or DOWN, yet since we have been in a bull market for more than two years, since about $250, and there is nothing meaningful really driving this price in the downward direction, besides regular corrections that attempt to allow buying support to catch up to current prices, still seems that from here the odds for an upwards price resolution are a bit stronger than the odds for a downward resolution.

EDIT: I see that you corrected it 'tis wasn't me...I simply looked over google translate of what ML wrote and edited it a little to smooth over GT's rough edges.
my personal opinion is...no opinion. 62% fib did not even happened yet. Overall, I agree that it would be strange to go down hard at this juncture.
Joe200
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December 25, 2017, 01:57:00 AM
 #5625

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.
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December 25, 2017, 02:12:51 AM
Last edit: December 25, 2017, 02:27:24 AM by Biodom
 #5626

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.


I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.
Joe200
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December 25, 2017, 02:31:33 AM
 #5627

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.


I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .
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December 25, 2017, 02:59:47 AM
 #5628

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.


I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .

ah, but once it happened, it (3.5K) is largely irrelevant by now.
it was just a point when he drew the chart, that's all.
Hope_Trader
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December 25, 2017, 11:09:11 AM
 #5629

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/48f2czx4/
windjc
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December 25, 2017, 02:51:05 PM
 #5630

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.



While more down is certainty possible, the default output for bitcoin is definitely not down. Btc does not behave like traditional asset classes.
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December 25, 2017, 10:33:04 PM
 #5631

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

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JayJuanGee
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December 25, 2017, 10:41:38 PM
 #5632

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.


Your comment makes little to no sense.  Without context, it just comes off as a pure uninformed stab in the dark.


Correlation is not causation, and past performance does not predict future performance, even though past performance can give you some ideas about momentum, resistance/support points, and to be able to attempt to attribute probabilities to future performance.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
windjc
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December 26, 2017, 01:37:24 AM
 #5633

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.
Joe200
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December 26, 2017, 03:22:02 AM
 #5634

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.
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December 26, 2017, 03:46:53 AM
Last edit: December 26, 2017, 04:08:37 AM by JayJuanGee
 #5635

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

Hahahahaha

What an "idea" that seems to be the opposite of reality, if it is how you describe it.

Think about it.

In late 2017, a bunch of traditional financial people do not know much if any thing about bitcoin, and accordingly, they do not own much if any bitcoin.  Thereafter in late 2017 a speculative instrument is created in order for them to "bet" futures.  Oh, that is going to cause BTC prices to go down?  How they gonna do it, they don't own any?  They gonna get HODLers to sell?  Good luck with that.  

If they actually want BTC prices to go down, along with the direction of their bet, they have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell it, no?

Anyhow, seems like demand for BTC is going to be increased rather than decreased, and seems like BTC price performance (aka "action') is seeming somewhat reflective of that increased BTC demand dynamic.... How do you say?  Remember a few weeks ago BTC prices were in the $9k territory, and where the fuck is it now?  Seems to be up, no?  I am not saying that CBOE or CME is the only cause for BTC prices to go up, because there are other things going on in BTC also that is contributing to increased demand and a shortage of supply, including a general inclination of HODLers not to want to sell BTC at these current prices.

Good luck with your bet downward, if that is what you did or are planning to do.   Tongue Tongue    Roll Eyes

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Enjel
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December 26, 2017, 05:34:52 AM
 #5636

Why would CME futures trading directly impact BTC price?

You do know that CME futures doesn't even involve a single BTC trading hands?

Sure, the institutional investors may manipulate based on their bets, but the futures itself trading doesn't mean anything for the BTC price.

I do agree that CME futures opens a door for market manipulators though. This shouldn't be a big problem, since they need to pump the price back up eventually if they do short. And we don't even know if they care about BTC at all.

Using crypto to pay for college.
windjc
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December 26, 2017, 05:35:32 AM
 #5637

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

Don’t need to wait. Market going up.
NiceSoft12
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December 26, 2017, 05:40:52 AM
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 #5638

Enjel
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December 26, 2017, 05:56:30 AM
 #5639



OK lol. Let's see if your prediction holds true for 16k, 17k, then 16k again.

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December 26, 2017, 07:37:02 AM
 #5640

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