Analysis

[Biodom]

From 3.5 to 20, the 618 fib level is 13.7, which we are breaching now. The 382 fib level is 9.8.

The buyer support @ 10 has not been tested. It's likely that's where we're headed. Once it bounces off of 10, we'll see.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

You are assuming the drop from the ~20 high has completed. I am talking about the scenario of what happens if it's not, based on masterluc saying that one possibility is retesting 10.

Figuring out where the low is is the most confusing part. Masterluc puts it at 3.5 https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/ .

ah, but once it happened, it (3.5K) is largely irrelevant by now.
it was just a point when he drew the chart, that's all.

[Hope_Trader]

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/48f2czx4/

[windjc]

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

While more down is certainty possible, the default output for bitcoin is definitely not down. Btc does not behave like traditional asset classes.

[thefiniteidea]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

[JayJuanGee]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Your comment makes little to no sense.  Without context, it just comes off as a pure uninformed stab in the dark.


Correlation is not causation, and past performance does not predict future performance, even though past performance can give you some ideas about momentum, resistance/support points, and to be able to attempt to attribute probabilities to future performance.

[windjc]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

[Joe200]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

[JayJuanGee]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

Hahahahaha

What an "idea" that seems to be the opposite of reality, if it is how you describe it.

Think about it.

In late 2017, a bunch of traditional financial people do not know much if any thing about bitcoin, and accordingly, they do not own much if any bitcoin.  Thereafter in late 2017 a speculative instrument is created in order for them to "bet" futures.  Oh, that is going to cause BTC prices to go down?  How they gonna do it, they don't own any?  They gonna get HODLers to sell?  Good luck with that.  

If they actually want BTC prices to go down, along with the direction of their bet, they have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell it, no?

Anyhow, seems like demand for BTC is going to be increased rather than decreased, and seems like BTC price performance (aka "action') is seeming somewhat reflective of that increased BTC demand dynamic.... How do you say?  Remember a few weeks ago BTC prices were in the $9k territory, and where the fuck is it now?  Seems to be up, no?  I am not saying that CBOE or CME is the only cause for BTC prices to go up, because there are other things going on in BTC also that is contributing to increased demand and a shortage of supply, including a general inclination of HODLers not to want to sell BTC at these current prices.

Good luck with your bet downward, if that is what you did or are planning to do.      

[Enjel]

Why would CME futures trading directly impact BTC price?

You do know that CME futures doesn't even involve a single BTC trading hands?

Sure, the institutional investors may manipulate based on their bets, but the futures itself trading doesn't mean anything for the BTC price.

I do agree that CME futures opens a door for market manipulators though. This shouldn't be a big problem, since they need to pump the price back up eventually if they do short. And we don't even know if they care about BTC at all.

[windjc]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

Don’t need to wait. Market going up.

[NiceSoft12]

[Enjel]

OK lol. Let's see if your prediction holds true for 16k, 17k, then 16k again.

[NiceSoft12]

[Hope_Trader]

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

While more down is certainty possible, the default output for bitcoin is definitely not down. Btc does not behave like traditional asset classes.

yeah... I was too early with the wedge call, but:

the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside.

2 conditions and one asset definition were in the post. My alternative scenario is this bounce, onwards to 16-17k and down... more appropriate considering how bullish bitcoin is and has been.

edit: the reasoning behind it being the default given those conditions is from looking at several historical big sell offs since 2014, but was mostly inspired by my experience of the Nov 2015 run to 500 and the constant bullish calls while we were in that wedge before the drop to 300. Other forms of consolidation or local corrective behaviour can provide a default output of further downside also. For example, we could just drift sideways/ weakly upwards for days or more with no new major highs, until the message sinks in.

[Hope_Trader]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

If they actually want BTC prices to go down, along with the direction of their bet, they have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell it, no?

you can short bitcoin with cash, though you may borrow btc to do so (from lenders who wouldn't be selling otherwise).

[thefiniteidea]

I have to admit that I was wrong about the CME closing negative every day last week; it actually closed positive on Friday. While this does affect the direction of the trend from what I originally thought (yes I know, obvious now, but...), it doesn't change my opinion that the futures market has influence over spot. Here's why...

These past 3 days, following Friday's close, just saw price rotate around the futures close price of $13800 (Bitstamp), in a range of +-$1500 (between $12500 and $15700), and last night (Futures Tuesday open) we started pushing higher FROM $13800 to continue Friday's move higher from the low of $11k. It's almost as if the past 3 days were meaningless, just waiting for futures to open again.

Also note how the price went from the all time high at $19666 exactly when the CME opened at 6PM on the 17th, to being driven down every single day throughout the week as futures were trading, until Friday.

Yes, I admit that I was wrong about today being a negative day, based on my false perception that Friday closed negative as well. However, I really do think the CME has an affect on the spot market. Whether or not it is a direct affect, or one that is behind the scenes is definitely open to debate. But the evidence is clear. IMO, I believe that we are finally seeing who controls these markets.

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback. Thank you.

[Enjel]

The graph is already wrong. Your crayon drawings were more accurate.

[JayJuanGee]

Ever since the CME opened, we have seen negative days -- every day -- except a day on which the CME was not open (Saturday the 23rd).

The CME resumes trading in 30 minutes. I suspect we will see another negative day.

Correlation is not causation.

Then what are you doing on the Speculation forum?

There is the idea that futures might reduce demand. The price action is consistent with that. Let's wait and see.

If they actually want BTC prices to go down, along with the direction of their bet, they have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell it, no?

you can short bitcoin with cash, though you may borrow btc to do so (from lenders who wouldn't be selling otherwise).

That is true.  Some people do use those kinds of shorting services to borrow BTC and to short in that way, but I still say good luck if you believe that kind of system is going to work to cause bitcoin's price to crash at these prices and with the levels of capital that is likely to come into the space and the number of coins that would likely need to be borrowed in order to support such price declines, as compared with the likely number of coins to be bought as compared to sold.

I know some people are expecting that BTC prices are going to go down because of various kinds of shorting and these kinds of ambitions of BIG capital to drive BTC prices down; however, I doubt that ambition and the ability to borrow coins alone is going to accomplish the desired downward price movements.

I personally believe those kinds of downward BTC price betters are going to get R3ckt, and it is more likely that we are going to need a decent amount of BTC price going UP first, before the shorters are going to be able to have success in their ambitions... perhaps 1 year of accumulation and price appreciation at minimum, but perhaps could take 3 years or more before they are going to have sufficient tools in place.

[btcone111]

https://i.gyazo.com/b519501e0ea71adfc5545ed79c50e77d.png

Let's see if this is correct. Now heading to 17K already .... (faster than a lot of people could imagine I suppose)

[Hope_Trader]

That is true.  Some people do use those kinds of shorting services to borrow BTC and to short in that way, but I still say good luck if you believe that kind of system is going to work to cause bitcoin's price to crash at these prices and with the levels of capital that is likely to come into the space and the number of coins that would likely need to be borrowed in order to support such price declines, as compared with the likely number of coins to be bought as compared to sold.

I know some people are expecting that BTC prices are going to go down because of various kinds of shorting and these kinds of ambitions of BIG capital to drive BTC prices down; however, I doubt that ambition and the ability to borrow coins alone is going to accomplish the desired downward price movements.

I personally believe those kinds of downward BTC price betters are going to get R3ckt, and it is more likely that we are going to need a decent amount of BTC price going UP first, before the shorters are going to be able to have success in their ambitions... perhaps 1 year of accumulation and price appreciation at minimum, but perhaps could take 3 years or more before they are going to have sufficient tools in place.

yeah, I don't really believe some specific typical capitalist entity or group of actors aka "Wall Street" can short bitcoin down in the markets just because they feel like it or just because they can, just because they have deep pockets. Market rules still apply, and bitcoin is large enough now for it not to be quite that type of timid asset that would take kindly to newcomers trying to mess with it. Old hands have lots of coins and have been trading this for a while.

It's also not really fair though to say that futures wouldn't have an effect on spot btc, it will have some sort of effect, as many factors do, but they are all represented there in the graph and who's to say what exactly is the driving factor most of the time. 2nd guessing a million variables when all you really need is 2 is kind of a waste of time. It's generally a helpful thought experiment though IMO, to play with ideas about what people may be thinking and what new pressures may be in effect on the market. Personally my 2nd guessing is that crypto has grown very fast and wide this year and has a lot going for it in many ways, hype included, it's not going into bear market mode for a while yet, though I expect more of a correction/sideways action from here as there is a new context to this last big sell off and action that was more severe than any previous since the start of this big bull run, also seasonally more significant as well as straight out of a parabolic rise and a weak, low volume and fairly rounded top.