Bitcoin Forum
November 21, 2017, 02:32:35 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 [36] 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 »
  Print  
Author Topic: BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680  (Read 39811 times)
bcp19
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:53:29 AM
 #701

Quote
Ah, you finally respond to what I posted. Glad you admitted that you estimated 70,000 orders, we can stop arguing about that.
Well, is it bad math or not? My point was that the math was not consistent with your other claims. Since it is your math I am posting, I would like to know. Is BFL able to ship 100,000 devices in 35 days, or is your math wrong in your "guesstimate".
You called it bad math, you then used it. You decide.
I used your math to demonstrate that it was not consistent with your other claims about BFL being able to ship. Therefore, one of your claims must be wrong. It upset you so much that you refused to even discuss it and deleted it from your posts. Now you can either pick: a) 7 PH/s orderbook, or b) backlog cleared by Sept. 30th. If you want to pick both, then you need to explain how BFL can ship 100,000 units by Sept. 30th.

Typical.  Childish games and nothing more.  Pat yourself on the back.
No, I was simply posting 2 things you said and demonstrating that they are incompatible. You STILL haven't explained how BFL can ship 100,000 devices by september 30th.

1) your backlog is not my preorder, so your question is moot.
2) Forest... trees...
You referred to it in a thread about BFL shipping backlogs. You called them orders and orderlog. You asked for the definition of backlog. Everyone was talking about backlogs. You already admitted that you guesstimated 7PH/s.

You still have not provided me with your estimate of how much network hash BFL has added to the network using the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ site as I did.

To remind you, I said ~8000 Jalapeno, ~1600 LS, ~500 singles and ~77 Mini's.  My estimated Network hash = 165TH

Now I am sure you will simply continue your childish game of GOTCHA!  So I really don't expect an answer.

Plus, I doubt you could perform the calculations anyway.

Cheers.
Here is your claim again so you can't pretend otherwise:
BFL: 7PH and rising.

Got a link or breakdown.
1) Has anyone compiled a guestimate of the amount of pre-orders.
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM.  Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information.
4) Monarchs were considered the "and rising"

Why would I provide more math, when you cannot agree to simple addition and subtraction. Either drop the claim that BFL can ship their backlog by Sept 30th, or point out the flaw in the math (it is your math after all), or if there are 100,000 devices in the backlog explain how BFL can ship them by Sept. 30th.

If your math is correct, why won't you defend it and why do I need to supply any new estimates? If your math is incorrect, why won't you admit to it?
*I* still never said 100,000 you did.

*I* also stated refunds and cancellations were not taken into account

*I* knew I was overestimating, but you are still taking it as gospel.

*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.

 http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.

Using it, we can simply add up:

Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28  32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices.  18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices.  3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31.  930 known devices.  4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)

48TH from minimally known orders.  I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.

Tripling it to 144TH possible.  Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.

your 80TH is looking shaky.

But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
1511274755
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511274755

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511274755
Reply with quote  #2

1511274755
Report to moderator
1511274755
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511274755

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511274755
Reply with quote  #2

1511274755
Report to moderator
1511274755
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511274755

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511274755
Reply with quote  #2

1511274755
Report to moderator
Join ICO Now A blockchain platform for effective freelancing
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1511274755
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511274755

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511274755
Reply with quote  #2

1511274755
Report to moderator
1511274755
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511274755

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511274755
Reply with quote  #2

1511274755
Report to moderator
nexus99
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:58:40 AM
 #702

I would bet that the big business that BFL does never has an online order number.

People have sit down meetings over dinner... sign some contracts and then bank x-fers of 500k+ are made and truckfulls of equipment are dispatched.

There is no way to estimate how much BFL hash rate is in the wild by looking at online orders... you can only get a glimpse of what the minimum amount is.
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2072


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 07:06:55 AM
 #703

On the other hand, BFL managed to create a chip from scratch, design and manufacture numerous boards.  Design and manufacture cases, power supplies, heat sinks, cables and a whole host of other parts. 
I call BS, simply because you took too much money from ordinary customers to accomplish that. With all that money at your disposal you are a total failure.
Your timing is a failure, your product is a failure, your company is a failure, and you are a total failure.
He knows he is a failure. No need to rub it in. I on the other hand am not so easily dissuaded. Let us see who gets sued less that be the benchmark I would love to be measured against.
Heh... that's what I thought.  The "Busineess for Dummies" book that you read didn't work out and now you're throwing a tantrum to try to take attention away from the fact that your entire business is a failure from start to finish.  Meanwhile, in BFL land, more product than any other company has been shipped.  More hashrate than any other company has been shipped.  Poor Bick is left looking at his failure of a plan wondering what went wrong.  So sad.
Asicminer?
No, ASICMiner = Most expensive ASIC cost per GH. That's the only department ASICMiner beats BFL... Money raked in.

Let's ignore that BFL has the longest order queue and oldest queue of orders to date.


███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
smoothie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2072


LEALANA Monero Physical Silver Coins


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 07:09:16 AM
 #704

My summary of BFL's new photoshopped vaporware:

1. Delivery likely won't happen until May 2014

2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).

3. BFL wanting to go only BTC for payments says a lot about their position concerning refunds through paypal.

They are cash strapped with an overtly larger queue of orders than their current cash reserves can fulfill.

Customer monies -> R&D = Interest free loan.


New customer monies -> Production Cost Payment for Old customers....rinse and repeat the ponzi cycle.

███████████████████████████████████████

            ,╓p@@███████@╗╖,           
        ,p████████████████████N,       
      d█████████████████████████b     
    d██████████████████████████████æ   
  ,████²█████████████████████████████, 
 ,█████  ╙████████████████████╨  █████y
 ██████    `████████████████`    ██████
║██████       Ñ███████████`      ███████
███████         ╩██████Ñ         ███████
███████    ▐▄     ²██╩     a▌    ███████
╢██████    ▐▓█▄          ▄█▓▌    ███████
 ██████    ▐▓▓▓▓▌,     ▄█▓▓▓▌    ██████─
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
           ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌          
    ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─  
     ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩    
        ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀       
           ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀`          
                   ²²²                 
███████████████████████████████████████

. ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM        My PGP fingerprint is A764D833.        SMOOTHIE'S HEALTH AND FITNESS JOURNAL          History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA  PHYSICAL MONERO COINS 999 FINE SILVER.
 
Bicknellski
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 07:36:03 AM
 #705

My summary of BFL's new photoshopped vaporware:

2. ROI of your investment will not be 100% (more likely than not in BTC terms).


Breakdown?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281279.msg3008390#msg3008390

Dogie trust abuse, spam, bullying, conspiracy posts & insults to forum members. Ask the mods or admins to move Dogie's spam or off topic stalking posts to the link above.
k9quaint
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 07:45:34 AM
 #706

*I* still never said 100,000 you did.
But you did when you said 70,000 orders from the http://bfl.ptz.ro/ dataset. You said there were 70,000 orders. That dataset has roughly 1.5 devices per order. Thus, roughly 100,000 devices. Therefore, if you want to use that data set and you want to declare that there are 70,000 orders then you have to accept that there are roughly 100,000 devices in those ordres. Elementary math.

*I* also stated refunds and cancellations were not taken into account
Right. So between 0 and 7 PH/s were canceled.

*I* knew I was overestimating, but you are still taking it as gospel.
We argued about it. You defended it religiously until the math became so obvious that you could not longer deny with a straight face. Then you started deleting the math from your posts like that would somehow make it disappear. Now you have started backpedaling. Just a few posts ago, you reaffirmed your support for a 7PH/s backlog. I take it now that you are disavowing that estimate? Or maybe you would just like to say that you have no idea what the size of BFL's order book is?

*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.
You may think math is childish, but unfortunately it underpins everything about bitcoin. So if you want to hang out here you better learn not to make simple math mistakes or you will be ridiculed for it.

http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.

Using it, we can simply add up:

Current blogs entries show MR up to July 28  32 known devices (1/3). + 13 known(2/3) 22.5TH minimum. (from ~13%[1/3] and ~25%[2.3] of possible orders.)
Singles are up to 6 JUL, 298 known devices.  18TH minimum. (from ~14% of possible orders)
LS are up to 11 Oct, 123 known devices.  3.075 TH minimum (from ~9.6% of possible orders)
Jala up to Jan 31.  930 known devices.  4.65TH minimum. (from ~8.4% of possible orders)

48TH from minimally known orders.  I think we can easily double that to 96TH and say minimum they shipped.

Tripling it to 144TH possible.  Quadrupling it to 194TH doubtful.

your 80TH is looking shaky.

But then, you refuse to do the math, likely cause you are afraid to show your ability.
I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of YouTube comments.
Ytterbium
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile WWW
August 26, 2013, 09:34:02 AM
 #707

Too bad BFL can't actually prove that any of their claims are true. BFL will brag and say they have shipped more hash rate than anyone. However, when asked to declare exactly how many units have shipped and exactly how many more they have to go, BFL refuses to answer saying they don't want to say how many devices they have shipped.

Those two things don't add up. Also, you would have to pretend that Bitfury did not exist, and that every single Avalon chip out of the 800K that arrived early July has gone missing, and that ASICMiner has not added any hash rate in order for BFL's claim to be correct. The last sane analysis had them around 80TH shipped.

Yeah. It's really pathetic.  He's bragging about stuff no one else could possibly verify. he's also been mistaken about who else was shipping - claiming that no one was while B3 Avalons and bitfury chips were shipping.

SebastianJu
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1960


Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile


View Profile WWW
August 26, 2013, 10:39:31 AM
 #708

150TH of avalon chips = speculation. 
Um, no. That is from the spreadsheet of orders that Avalon released. Plus some math to multiply the hash rate of each chip times the number of chips. Is that where you got lost? The math?

Please consider that the hashrate isnt only 282MHz but instead 450MHz with the right miner. I use bitburner XX from burnin and my miner runs fine at 450MHz. Im really impressed of the great work of burnin.

ASICMiners' shares have dropped by almost 30%... what do the shareholders know we don't?

The reasons are two. One can watch the flow of bitcoins from asicminer to other securities that try to copy AM. The investors want a bit of the pie and hope for a second AM.

The other reason is that the dividends are lower now. Friedcat explained its because he keeps back Bitcoins for new investments. But people dont like low dividends.

I wont sell my shares. Asicminer will stay and hold a big part of the networks hashingpower. They have an advantage and i dont see why this should stop.

Here's the deal, Bick:

You had a "paint by numbers" business plan and you are, in every sense of the word, a failure at even that.  You had a proven board design (by someone else).  You had proven chips (by someone else). All you had to do was slap two separate parts together, chips and board... and you couldn't even accomplish that much.  You are a terrible businessman.  You have absolutely zero ability to follow through, even when everything, down to the last detail is handed to you on a silver platter. 

Am i seeing that wrong or do you blame him for Yifu not delivering the chips in time? If you create a business and it turns out the numbers change because Yifu did something wrong and the difficulty is rising way faster than anticipated then its a wise move to stop a business. It would be stupid to stay in when its easier and less costly to drop out.
Maybe i miss infos on it.
bcp19
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 03:22:00 PM
 #709

<intentional troll bait deleted>

I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH... damn, that troll record is still stuck.  <--- fast and dirty estimate.  nothing else.   untill you accept this fact you are just more troll bait.

You are still adding 2 + 2 and coming up complete order book.  In reality 2 + 2 = pre-orders. You are still trolling.

I simply showed a "If A were true, then B would follow scenario" and now to you I have said A ***IS*** 100% TRUE!!!!!!!!!  You refuse to understand the diffence and continue your trolling.

Since you continue to use fantasy numbers even after being told they ARE fantasy numbers, I must conclude you are only doing it for the troll value and treat your remaining responses as such.

You claim your 80TH "made sense" yet you use wild supposition like 150TH for chips that may or may not even be in the hands of the peope who ordered them.  You are speculating just as badly as I was with my 7PH. 

Using the MINIMUMS I listed before:
930 Jalapenos over the course 60 days of listed shipping.  15.5 per day minimum <-- a single person could do this in under an hour and a half.
123 L.S. over the course of 27 days of listed shipping.  4.5 per day minimum
298 Singles over the course of 41 days shipping.  5.5 per day minimum
 45 500gh mini rig units over 34 days shipping.  1.3 per day minimum. <-- I bet *I* could build 2x that by myself in a day while learning how.

This is the problem with using such a small sample of orders.  While you and all the other detractors firmly believe this is the maximum output BFL could do, I'd bet my next paycheck they have been doing at a minimum 2-3x that.  Now's the time for your "400 units" bleating to begin.

The plain and simple fact here is you have been just as fast and loose with some of the numbers as I have, yet while I have admitted MANY MANY times those were guesses and estimates, you still consider them blood oaths and then turn around and prattle off numbers that also have no real basis of proof.


I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
lucasjkr
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 03:48:30 PM
 #710


*I* am not the one using childish "GOTCHA!" tricks to prove nothing.

 http://bfl.ptz.ro/, while containing some bad data, is the ONLY source of KNOWN BFL orders.

Using it, we can simply add up:

...

To further bolster BCP19's side of the argument....

That site is useless, unless you want to apply a multiplier to it (of an unknown amount, but probably large).

For instance, I never entered my order on there. Not only that, there are tons of sizable gaps where there are most likely at least one order if not several... Detractors might say that those gaps are just caused by people entering an order in the system but never completing payment, but given that entering information on that site is 100% voluntary, there's no reason to think that even the majority of BFL orders are represented there.

For instance:

In the earliest days of ordering, the jump between order numbers is usually in the single digits (lots of sequential orders, and many others a handful of missing order #'s). Even by July, you're seeing many jumps of 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 slots between order numbers. All that indicates is many people didn't enter their orders into this site.  From the june start date to the end of august, there are 537 orders represented on the site, which span a total 5280 order numbers.  So, basically only 1 out of every 10 orders is accounted for (since we see that they often increase incrementally). Back out a few to represent uncompleted orders, and using this site still vastly undershoots the total number of orders that BFL has out there.
k9quaint
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 04:00:44 PM
 #711

<intentional troll bait deleted>

I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH... damn, that troll record is still stuck.  <--- fast and dirty estimate.  nothing else.   untill you accept this fact you are just more troll bait.
I know it is a fast and dirty estimate. I have been demonstrating that either the estimate is not accurate or BFL is lying about their ability to clear the backlog by Sept. 30th. Nothing in my posts is intentional troll bait. Until you either say that the 7 PH/s estimate is not accurate, or say that it is accurate but BFL can't ship we cannot move on  Since you cannot seem to stay on this subject, lets make 3 simple questions for you to answer:

Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of YouTube comments.
bcp19
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 04:30:55 PM
 #712

<intentional troll bait deleted>

I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH... damn, that troll record is still stuck.  <--- fast and dirty estimate.  nothing else.   untill you accept this fact you are just more troll bait.
I know it is a fast and dirty estimate. I have been demonstrating that either the estimate is not accurate or BFL is lying about their ability to clear the backlog by Sept. 30th. Nothing in my posts is intentional troll bait. Until you either say that the 7 PH/s estimate is not accurate, or say that it is accurate but BFL can't ship we cannot move on  Since you cannot seem to stay on this subject, lets make 3 simple questions for you to answer:

Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?

Pre order not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog...

You're record is stuck and now so is mine.  You are using TOTAL POTENTIAL ORDERBOOK vice pre-order fact.

Now, do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 7PH ordered? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 70,000 potential orders? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been over 100,000 devices ordered? yes.
With all of the cancellations and refunds, do I still believe the above POSSIBLE ESTIMATES to be 100% valid? no.

Since the POTENTIAL 100k units ordered have been decimated by cancellations and refunds, your continued harping is still trolling.

Since the Backlog is only the preorders up until April 5th when the price changed, I do believe they have a fair shot of completing pre-orders by Sept 30.


I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
k9quaint
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:15:41 PM
 #713

<intentional troll bait deleted>

I have been doing math. Math which shows that either your 7PH/s orderbook stance is wrong, or BFL can't ship by the end of Sept 30th. Both cannot be true, because by BFL's own admission they can only ship maximum of 300 units a day.

So you take the data you have from http://bfl.ptz.ro/. You don't like it so you double it. That is not far enough from 80TH/s (which was the last number calculated for BFL shipments using a method that made sense), so you want to triple it. You feel like you might be pushing things so you decide not to quadruple it. Nice method. Very MIT chic.

After we put to bed the 7 Peta/Hash per second BFL order book prediction you made. We can focus on adding up the hash rate of the other ASIC players and seeing what is left. Until you can agree to the old math or point out where it is flawed, it is pointless to move on. You will just continue to claim 2+2=5 and play fast and loose about your own statements (which I will have to continue to post here to "refresh" your memory).
7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH 7PH... damn, that troll record is still stuck.  <--- fast and dirty estimate.  nothing else.   untill you accept this fact you are just more troll bait.
I know it is a fast and dirty estimate. I have been demonstrating that either the estimate is not accurate or BFL is lying about their ability to clear the backlog by Sept. 30th. Nothing in my posts is intentional troll bait. Until you either say that the 7 PH/s estimate is not accurate, or say that it is accurate but BFL can't ship we cannot move on  Since you cannot seem to stay on this subject, lets make 3 simple questions for you to answer:

Were there 7PH/s of BFL orders in your estimation?
Were there 70,000 orders in your estimation?
Were there 100,000 devices ordered in your estimation?

Pre order not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog... Preorder not backlog...

You're record is stuck and now so is mine.  You are using TOTAL POTENTIAL ORDERBOOK vice pre-order fact.

Now, do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 7PH ordered? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been 70,000 potential orders? yes.
Do I believe there POSSIBLY COULD have been over 100,000 devices ordered? yes.
With all of the cancellations and refunds, do I still believe the above POSSIBLE ESTIMATES to be 100% valid? no.

Since the POTENTIAL 100k units ordered have been decimated by cancellations and refunds, your continued harping is still trolling.

Since the Backlog is only the preorders up until April 5th when the price changed, I do believe they have a fair shot of completing pre-orders by Sept 30.

Ok, you finally answered the questions. See how easy that was, now we can discuss your answers. Next time, don't give 47 posts of evading the questions and you won't get a broken record.

The backlog includes every order up to the current minute.
backlog: 1. an accumulation of something, esp. uncompleted work or matters that need to be dealt with.
BFL said they could clear the backlog so they could then ship units to order.
If you want to change the rules, just change it so pre-orders were only orders before October 12th 2012. That way you are more certain to win.

It looks like you are saying you really have no idea how many orders BFL has. Good, we can stop talking about that purile nonsense of 70,000 orders of BFL backlog.

The closer we get to Sept 30th, the more we know about the size of BFL's backlog. BFL's cap on production per day is 300 units (if you believe them). There are 26 work days between now and Sept 30th. That says they can ship a maximum of 7800 devices between now and then. Using the 1.5 devices per order average from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that says on average at their highest production rate for 26 days the ceiling on filled orders is 5200. They could work weekends too. That would add another 2400 devices which would increase their fulfillment to 6800 orders. That is pretty much the ceiling of what they can accomplish.

Reality is going to be a good deal lower than 300 units a day. There is no evidence that they have ever done 300 units a day. In fact when we have seen pictures of  stacks of BFL boxes going into USPS trucks, there has never been more than 60 boxes. Also, the size of the USPS trucks (also visible in the pics) that show up couldn't fit more than 60 boxes inside. You would need a 1 TEU container to hold 300 boxes, so those should have been showing up daily. Each USPS box has roughly 1.5 to 2 cubic feet of space in it. 1 standard TEU has 1,360 cubic feet in it. So they would need 300 to 450 cubic feet and they would need to be on shipping pallets (so they don't jumble around and break). That would probably fit in 1 TEU, but definitely not in the small size trucks.

Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say that BFL could ship 150 units a day for the next 34 days straight, that means they will fill roughly 3400 orders. If that makes up 80% of their order book (20% already shipped). Then there were roughly 4200 orders total to begin with (8400 if we use the less likely 300 units a day). That is the ballbark we are dealing with if BFL can actually ship their backlog by Sept 30th.

Of course, if they weasel out of that and there are still thousands of orders in a backlog after Sept 30, I won't be surprised.

Bitcoin is backed by the full faith and credit of YouTube comments.
joeventura
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 714



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:15:50 PM
 #714




Parody Protected by the 1st Amendment

BitCoinRateWatcher.com One stop for latest rates from MtGox, Bitstamp, CampBx, Coinbase and Bitpay all on one mobile friendly screen.
nexus99
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:19:53 PM
 #715

Any chance we can keep this thread on topic? Discussion around BFL delivery dates and such can have its own thread....
Bicknellski
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 924



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:22:16 PM
 #716

Any chance we can keep this thread on topic? Discussion around BFL delivery dates and such can have its own thread....

February... unless they delayed it again right?


Dogie trust abuse, spam, bullying, conspiracy posts & insults to forum members. Ask the mods or admins to move Dogie's spam or off topic stalking posts to the link above.
peasant
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 265


Bitmaker


View Profile
August 26, 2013, 05:41:50 PM
 #717

There shouldn't be anymore discussions on this thread. Hasn't it all been said already? Wait for the original shipping date to approach then start again.
bcp19
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 06:38:33 PM
 #718

Ok, you finally answered the questions. See how easy that was, now we can discuss your answers. Next time, don't give 47 posts of evading the questions and you won't get a broken record.

The backlog includes every order up to the current minute.
backlog: 1. an accumulation of something, esp. uncompleted work or matters that need to be dealt with.
BFL said they could clear the backlog so they could then ship units to order.
If you want to change the rules, just change it so pre-orders were only orders before October 12th 2012. That way you are more certain to win.

It looks like you are saying you really have no idea how many orders BFL has. Good, we can stop talking about that purile nonsense of 70,000 orders of BFL backlog.

The closer we get to Sept 30th, the more we know about the size of BFL's backlog. BFL's cap on production per day is 300 units (if you believe them). There are 26 work days between now and Sept 30th. That says they can ship a maximum of 7800 devices between now and then. Using the 1.5 devices per order average from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ that says on average at their highest production rate for 26 days the ceiling on filled orders is 5200. They could work weekends too. That would add another 2400 devices which would increase their fulfillment to 6800 orders. That is pretty much the ceiling of what they can accomplish.

Reality is going to be a good deal lower than 300 units a day. There is no evidence that they have ever done 300 units a day. In fact when we have seen pictures of  stacks of BFL boxes going into USPS trucks, there has never been more than 60 boxes. Also, the size of the USPS trucks (also visible in the pics) that show up couldn't fit more than 60 boxes inside. You would need a 1 TEU container to hold 300 boxes, so those should have been showing up daily. Each USPS box has roughly 1.5 to 2 cubic feet of space in it. 1 standard TEU has 1,360 cubic feet in it. So they would need 300 to 450 cubic feet and they would need to be on shipping pallets (so they don't jumble around and break). That would probably fit in 1 TEU, but definitely not in the small size trucks.

Even if I give them the benefit of the doubt and say that BFL could ship 150 units a day for the next 34 days straight, that means they will fill roughly 3400 orders. If that makes up 80% of their order book (20% already shipped). Then there were roughly 4200 orders total to begin with (8400 if we use the less likely 300 units a day). That is the ballbark we are dealing with if BFL can actually ship their backlog by Sept 30th.

Of course, if they weasel out of that and there are still thousands of orders in a backlog after Sept 30, I won't be surprised.
A pre-order is an order placed for an item which has not yet been released.  Everything since is an order and won't be shipped until the pre-orders are taken care of.  The only way YOUR version makes sense is if I word it "wont be shipped until the pre-order BACKLOG is taken care of"  No need to "change the rules" you already stated it above, which I highlighted.  Placed to order = not pre-ordered.  Feel free to contradict yourself.

Now, by using YOUR DEFINITION, I could place an order on Sept 29th, and when they did not ship it on Sept 30 I could scream and yell and holler that they did not meet their stated aim of shipping their backlog.  Sorry, it does not hold water.  To estimate clearing ANYTHING you have to have a set figure.  If you are constantly adding to this figure, the time will therefore increase as well.  You are now claiming BFL can see into the future to know what orders will be placed and KNOW they can satisfy it.  Typical troll.

Whoa, I need wikipedia here.... The twenty-foot equivalent unit (often TEU or teu) is an inexact unit of cargo capacity often used to describe the capacity of container ships and container terminals.  There is a lack of standardisation in regards to height, ranging between 4 feet 3 inches (1.30 m) and 9 feet 6 inches (2.90 m), with the most common height being 8 feet 6 inches (2.59 m)... AMAZING! 20' long, 8' wide and 4'3" to 9'6" tall.  680 to 1520 CUBIC FEET.  Quite a range there bud.  That'd hold 1360 to 3040 of the large .5 cubic foot USPS flat rate packages measureing 12 by 12 by 5 1/2.  Yea, I see a HUGE need for those TEUs.

When were these pictures taken?  For 2 months only Jalapenos left the building, would really need that container for those!  And gee, the post office would NEVER think to change the vehicle size they pick up with if the orders started ramping up, that'd be silly!  Let's make 10 trips!  And of course EVERYTHING is shipped by USPS as well!  Why use Fed-Ex and UPS and DHL like the customers want for their expedited shipping?  That'd make WAY too much sense.

You are looking a bad data and making assupmtions.  That 15.5 Jalapenos a day average could be well over 100-150, we'll never know.  The lowet Jan. Jala order is 15742 and the highest is 18379.  83 Jalapenos from 68 orders.  All told, 182 orders spread over 2600 order numbers.  Using the minimum they shipped 21 a day since Jan was cleared in 4 days.

Keep chanting your mantra, <Oooom... long con... Ooooom>.  You refuse to acknowledge anything but your limited point of view, even though you are wrong. 

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
creativex
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 06:53:12 PM
 #719

...and with that lengthy nonsensical rant I can add another obvious bfl sockpuppet account to ignore. These guys have more socks than a JC Penny white sale. Tongue

bcp19
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532



View Profile
August 26, 2013, 07:10:30 PM
 #720

...and with that lengthy nonsensical rant I can add another obvious bfl sockpuppet account to ignore. These guys have more socks than a JC Penny white sale. Tongue
Happy to oblige!

I do not suffer fools gladly... "Captain!  We're surrounded!"
I embrace my inner Kool-Aid.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 [36] 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!