[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Stuartuk]

There is no mention of guarantee -- just a promise

Ehhh?

This payout is guaranteed, it is written into the IPO.

You are talking semantics to try to win an argument. Go to your local store and quirey them on their 'money-back guarantee' - you can say 'but you might not be trading tomorrow your guarantee NOT a guarantee'. I'd love to see them kick your ass out of the store.

Nothing in life is guaranteed crumbs not even a guarantee.

Do you have anything sensible to say to me and the current shareholders whose shares you desperately want to buy?

[JimmyJazz]

Using latest update from Ken,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297543.msg3220847#msg3220847

Using new information in 'Details' on CryptoTrade
https://crypto-trade.com/tradex/ipo/amc_btc

Using and modifying some of the detail as set out by 4ju5tice
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297503.msg3741018#msg3741018


OK so to begin we assume Ken is giving a fair a reasonable assessment of the current state of ACtM. We do that because Ken is not canvassing for any more shareholder funds, he is not asking anyone for money so has zero benefit in exaggerating potential future sales figures or the current state of ACtM finances or technical progress.

Where do we start - well I'd posit that if we can establish the position of ACtM by end January we can use that as a basis for forward projection. If we know the size of our farm by then we can see if it is large enough to become self-funding for expansion considering rising network difficulty.

So, ACtM has:

'2.3 Million in liquid assets, this includes Bitcoins, Cash from VMC, and   AMC purchased ActiveMining shares'
and
'As of this writing we have over 2.1 Million in sales for November, this excludes any fraudulent sales,'

So we can expect that by the time we are a few weeks into January we will have a fund of over 4Mill USD to spend solely on the ACtM mining farm.
Therefore by end of January we can expect to have in the region of 40 fully deployed 24.5TH/s machines on our farm. (The machines are retailing at 233k. I would expect cost-price would be sub 50% of retail, so at 90k per machine that gives us 400k change for install costs from a 4Mill fund).

In 4ju5tice's table, month 3 will be January so I am estimating network hash to be around 11PH/s by January end.
24.5TH/s X 40 = 980TH/s which is 8.9% of total hash.

So again taking into account rising difficulty through February, the ACtM farm will mine approx 7% of total BTC in that month which would be 7% of 100,800 (28day month) which is 7056 BTC.

BTC by end of February is likely to be 2,000 USD so 7056X2,000 = 14,112,00 USD.

With 50% of that going to shareholders that would mean we have 7Mill USD from farm profits to fund the next months expansion to the ACtM mining farm. Lets assume continued miner sales completely cover the running costs of the farm (sales are 2Mill per month right now).

So without going into too much detail you can easily see that with a 40% network increase per month and a 75% increase in funds per month the farm is comfortably self-sustaining month on month with a BTC price of 2k USD.

Now not only is the farm self-sustaining in those circumstances shareholders will be getting 50% of the 7056BTC mined each month which will amount to 0.0007056 per share (1.41 USD per share).
So if you hold 1,000 ACtM shares you will be making 1,410 USD per month come February.

So, I think it is easy to establish that with the initial funds that we have access to and the cost-price machines we can source from VMC that by February we will have a mining farm generating 7% of the monthly BTC. That profit will be enough to both pay share holders good divs and enlarge the farm at pace with the growth in network hash difficulty.


We haven't finished yet, now we move on to the ASIC chip-only sales estimated under 'AMC 12 Months Projections:' in 'Details' on CT.
'AMC through VMC expects to sale 1 Million of its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chips in 2014.  After AMC recoups its
NRE of ~1 Million dollars, then AMC expects to receive ~40 Million dollars in profits for in VMC subsidary payment in 2014.'

So we have an estimated 40Million USD profits from sales in 2014. So after all VMC costs of production for all customers (mining machines and ASIC chips) we have 20Mill for investors and 20Mill to add to the mining farm investment fund.

So lets add approx 2Mill USD to shareholder divs. We don't know what BTC figure Ken is using for the prediction so we will stay at 2K. That would be another 1,000btc for shareholders each month taking monthly divs from 0.0007056 up to 0.0008056BTC per share.

And finally the extra 2Mill USD (approx) per month profit going to the mining farm will represent another 20 24.5TH/s mining machines a month leaving 200k per month for running costs for those 20 machines.

In summary then, by end January 2014 we will have in place a self-sustaining mining farm generating 7% of global hash through February. Profits will be enough to pay divs of over 1.5USD per share in February and also over-invest in the farm to bring machine growth well above network growth. With 75% growth in machines and only 40% in network we should comfortably have an increased share of total network each new month. Online sales will generate 2Mill per month USD which is enough to build and run another 20 24.5TH/s machines per month or cover entire installation and running costs of ACtM mining farm.

Forcast for divs from Feb (rising as the farm output increases above network rate by approx 20% per month.)

Feb 0.0008056
March 0.00096672
April 0.00116006
Shareholder guarantee of 0.0025 per share met by April, so following public divs drop by 60%
May approx 0.0005568
June 0.0006682
July 0.0008019
August 0.00096228
Sep 0.0011547
Oct 0.001386
Nov 0.001663
Dec 0.0019896

Total divs per publicly held share for next 12months = 0.01208248BTC.

That is with a constant BTC price of 2,000USD and a 20% increase in mining farm output (mined BTC) month on month.

With a BTC price averaging 4k USD expect mining farm size to grow through increased re-invest funds and hence final yearly div payout could be +75%

With BTC averaging 6k USD through the year, conservatively expect div payout to be + 125% of above estimate.

So with a yearly div payout of anything from 0.012 to 0.03 BTC we would now estimate share price target using Price-Earnings ratio. In a penny-stock P/E ratios of 3:1 are common. i.e you invest 300dollars and recieve 100 dollars back in divs in year 1 - that is an excellent return but it reflects a high risk investment as the company could fold.
In more established and safer companies a P/E ratio of 10:1 to 30:1 is acceptable. At 10:1 100 dollars invested will net you 10% in divs in year 1. OK this is the BTC ecomony, there is risk so as an example ASICMINER-PT operated at around 3:1 P/E ratio at it's height. I think ACtM is already a far more open company than AM-PT and come Spring will have an established reputation, full accounts and full legitimacy. So a P/E ratio of 5:1 is reasonable, even conservative.

OK so serious investors will be doing these sorts of calculations and estimates in any company or project they want to put serious money into. There are masses of big BTC holders who would jump at the chance to invest in a safe company that offered a P/E ratio of 5:1. It would mean that if they put 500BTC into ACtM stock they would at year end recieve 100BTC in divs and still hold 500BTC in a stock of a company that is growing month on month.

So with 12month divs at 0.01208248BTC (the payout with BTC at only 2k USD) a serious investor would be happy to pay 0.06 per share.

That is not conjecture - it is business.

So I think the above estimate of current situation and the forecast is reasonable and in most areas conservative. We have a safety margin in all areas of the business with for example the possibility of lower sales being covered adequately by the self-sustaining mining farm. So with the business progressing as predicted (by Ken) we should have a target share price of 0.04-0.06 BTC as this is what big investors will be happy to pay. Price will go this high I think it's a 95% certainty. And by April the 0.0025 guarantee will be paid out. That's currently 2.5 USD per share. If BTC goes above 2k USD expect share prices north of 0.06 BTC.

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

[damiano]

Weekly Update:

We are going to try and give a weekly update on Wednesday of each week
to keep all of Investors up to date on our progress.

First, Ken will be taking all of the AMC-TENDER transaction and adding
those transactions to a database.  This database will be used to verify
your shares.  Once your shares are verified, they will added to the
queue which will be used at Crypto-Trade to create your account.  As
your account is created on Crypto-Trade the number of shares verified
will be added to your account.  If you already have a Crypto-Trade
account using the same email address used to verify your shares, then
the shares will just be added to that account.  The procedure when ready
will be posted in our Announcement the thread.

Active Mining PR Staff

What is the delay in getting everything onto Crypto-Trade?  When can we expect trading to finally begin?

[sparky999]

Dear Ken,

Thank you for your continued hard work despite the never ending barrage of abuse and accusations from certain forum members.

Seeing a PR post and likely weekly updates is a great step forward. Having short term weekly targets that shareholders can see you hitting every week should help to boost confidence.

I feel like most of the hate has come from people trying to buy cheap shares in a company that is soon to be worth many multiples of IPO price, there are others whom as a result of the drastic increase in valuation of bitcoin have more fiat tied up in this endeavor than they feel comfortable with, although with Crypto-trade coming online very soon this can be alleviated to some extent. I'm sure they still believe you will come through but with so much $$$ on the line and a less than adequate amount of spherical objects to see it out, they sometimes get a little worked up and vent at you.

Many/most of the shareholders of this company are not learned investors they are simply a random collection of people from all walks of life who were at the right place at the right time and had some bitcoins.

I urge you to stay calm in the face of this abuse and use it to motivate you going forward to create as you yourself describe 'the world's largest bitcoin mining farm'.

Many of us still believe in you and eAsic to pull this off and we all eagerly await the day you post pics of our eAsic chips hashing away. That moment will be the single greatest achievement of the company so far and will silence all of the trolls instantly.

Good luck Ken and thank you again,

Sparky999

[Stuartuk]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Good spot, thanks Jimmy I will change that line.
It should now say if you have 1000 shares you will make 705 USD per month from divs in February.
Altering the larger div table also...

[sparky999]

If you have no stock and are posting every single day in this thread then you're not fine. It may take you a long time to realise it but you need to get outside more, enjoy life and quit posting in a thread where nobody cares what you think.

[Stuartuk]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

[Stuartuk]

If you have no stock [crumbs] and are posting every single day in this thread then you're not fine. It may take you a long time to realise it but you need to get outside more, enjoy life and quit posting in a thread where nobody cares what you think.

Yes but this time next week he will have circa 45BTC worth of ACtM. That's why he is here.

Now how many ACtM shares that represents will be entirely up to the shareholders who sell to him on CryptoTrade.

No matter what happens this Troll [crumbs] is buying, so is pankkake, so is VE.

They will still be buying at 0.0025 if they haven't filled their boots by that point.

[lobbes]

Weekly Update:

We are going to try and give a weekly update on Wednesday of each week
to keep all of Investors up to date on our progress.

This is wonderful

[kleeck]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Cheers.

[tom.hashemi]

Weekly Update:

We are going to try and give a weekly update on Wednesday of each week
to keep all of Investors up to date on our progress.

First, Ken will be taking all of the AMC-TENDER transaction and adding
those transactions to a database.  This database will be used to verify
your shares.  Once your shares are verified, they will added to the
queue which will be used at Crypto-Trade to create your account.  As
your account is created on Crypto-Trade the number of shares verified
will be added to your account.  If you already have a Crypto-Trade
account using the same email address used to verify your shares, then
the shares will just be added to that account.  The procedure when ready
will be posted in our Announcement the thread.

Active Mining PR Staff

Excellent.

[VinceSamios]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

[stereotype]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Cheers.

Yep. Late 90's dot-com accounting projections, are back with us again. 

[damiano]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Good spot, thanks Jimmy I will change that line.
It should now say if you have 1000 shares you will make 705 USD per month from divs in February.
Altering the larger div table also...

I want Active to succeed as much as everyone else, but 705 USD per 1000 shares just feels to much like a dream.

[kleeck]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

Did you read that old KnC article? They got their 30% performance boost from cgminer tweaking. If this is the case, then the delay with the chips is unrelated to the Intellihash development.

[sparky999]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

Did you read that old KnC article? They got their 30% performance boost from cgminer tweaking. If this is the case, then the delay with the chips is unrelated to the Intellihash development.

except Ken has explicitly said that the chips will be late due to alterations needed for Intellihash. He has also said that Intellihash could be a game changer for ActM, I don't thin he would use this language lightly in a formal update about the company.

[kleeck]

I guess I was completely spot on with this then? Since it was deleted? There was literally no other reason to delete my speculation (which I said it was) unless it was a little too accurate for comfort.

IntelliHash

I can't see how intellihash could possibly work... the only thing it possibly could be is an over-clocking utility. It cannot change a chip (Ken said it would work on avalons too), it cannot fake proof-of-work (and if it can, bitcoin is broken), so the only option is an over-clocking utility. Which would be coherent with the 20% increase quoted, as that would be about the max you could reliably overclock.

TLDR; IntelliHash is, in my judgement, an overclocking utility.

Did you read that old KnC article? They got their 30% performance boost from cgminer tweaking. If this is the case, then the delay with the chips is unrelated to the Intellihash development.

except Ken has explicitly said that the chips will be late due to alterations needed for Intellihash. He has also said that Intellihash could be a game changer for ActM, I don't thin he would use this language lightly in a formal update about the company.

Upon further review, you are correct:

Intellihash(tm)

Intellihash is our new trademark for our new Bitcoin mining software which gives up to a 20% increase in hashing speed and has the possibility to increase the speed of our mining machines as the difficulty goes up.  We have had to modify the software in our chips to make it work with our new software.  The chips are going to be late; however, our new Intellihash software could be a game changer for the company.

I don't believe I'll be talking about this on a public forum anymore in respect of Ken's wishes. I'm satisfied that Intellihash is real and will be very good for our miners.

[JoTheKhan]

Seeing some good news on the forum these passed few days. Digging it.

[finlof]

You didn't divide the coins mined by 50%. Should be 3528? 0.0003528 per share.
Still very good and positive. The only thing is we need the chips!

Thanks again Jimmy I've now adjusted for the 50% mined-coin split, a silly mistake.

I actually thought the final share price of 0.06 was a bit high, as last time I did these calculations it was nearer 0.04 BTC.

So the amendment means the 0.0025BTC guarantee to shareholders will be paid out in full by May not April.

Total yearly divs are conservatively estimated to be from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC - depending on BTC price.

So the target share price with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5:1 and BTC at 2,000USD is 0.037 BTC per share.

Just going to run these numbers real quick for you:

.037 BTC * 25,000,000 = 925,000 BTC. @ $2,000 that is a fiat evaluation of $1,850,000,000.00.

Cheers.

yeah sounds so plausible for a company of 4 people.

[iSnow]

I don't believe I'll be talking about this on a public forum anymore in respect of Ken's wishes. I'm satisfied that Intellihash is real and will be very good for our miners.

We don't know this. We don't even know if it is indeed real or what it is.