[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[drawingthesun]

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?

You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

I am all for cheerleading, but this is madness Vigil. There is no evidence at that we have more than 3TH.

[drawingthesun]

... and with our 2013 sales at $6,311,788.33 we have a very good share of the market.

Real sales (trades with payment and delivery) or preorders? If you call it a sale, you can pay dividends too...

Even if these are actual sales and Ken has that money, we take a dividend on profit only, not revenue. Many things will bring that number down before it comes out to us.

[stenkross]

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?

You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

I am all for cheerleading, but this is madness Vigil. There is no evidence at that we have more than 3TH.

Indeed.
Don't you think he would at least mention it in a weekly update?
"oh, and btw, we currently have > 3% of global hashrate"

Nope, the eligius account is not ActM's.

[Bargraphics]

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?

The week after next if all goes well. I invite anyone else that can make it to come as well but it seems like I'm alone on this one.

Sorry for not reading > 300 pages for this info, but has Ken confirmed that he will let you in?

Yes

[minerpart]

We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

+1

[Vigil]

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?

You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

I am all for cheerleading, but this is madness Vigil. There is no evidence at that we have more than 3TH.

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

[Ozymandias]

Even if I lose my ass due to ActM, at least I'll have memories of this entertainment to sustain me 

[drawingthesun]

Bargraphics, how soon until you visit Ken and take pictures of progress?

You can already monitor the progress on Eligius. We have 10 24.5 TH miners that are still going through some software debugging or potentially hardware issues.

You people are blind as all shit.

I am all for cheerleading, but this is madness Vigil. There is no evidence at that we have more than 3TH.

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Except that our 24TH miners are a massive combination of many smaller miners, I doubt our farm going online would be in jumps of 24TH, I would instead imagine a gradual rise to 24TH thus making a distinction impossible.

As Ken would add the modular parts the mining capacity would increase in much smaller amounts, also Bargraphics says that he knows that miner is not us, of all people why would he lie?

[67Cuda]

https://i.imgur.com/66HCEq1.jpg
http://images.sodahead.com/polls/000528083/polls_OoGMYnQcWn_i_am_not_a_crook_1_2351_693_poll_xlarge.jpeg
*Got kind of a hankypank rhyme to it

[Vigil]

Except that our 24TH miners are a massive combination of many smaller miners, I doubt our farm going online would be in jumps of 24TH, I would instead imagine a gradual rise to 24TH thus making a distinction impossible.

As Ken would add the modular parts the mining capacity would increase in much smaller amounts, also Bargraphics says that he knows that miner is not us, of all people why would he lie?

No they aren't. Each 24.5TH unit relies on 1 base unit + 6 extensions. They function as a whole unit. The extensions need the base. They go on and off all at the same time.

Why would a bunch of 1.5-3 TH units all jump on at the same time in increments of exactly 24.5 TH? And when they went down and back up again do so in 24.5 TH? They wouldn't. What company has shipped-out unstable miners that would be hashing at 250 Th? None. 

[drawingthesun]

67Cuda, you weaken your position by posting stupid meme pictures, grow up.

[drawingthesun]

Except that our 24TH miners are a massive combination of many smaller miners, I doubt our farm going online would be in jumps of 24TH, I would instead imagine a gradual rise to 24TH thus making a distinction impossible.

As Ken would add the modular parts the mining capacity would increase in much smaller amounts, also Bargraphics says that he knows that miner is not us, of all people why would he lie?

No they aren't. Each 24.5TH unit relies on 1 base unit + 6 extensions. They function as a whole unit. The extensions need the base. They go on and off all at the same time.

Start with the base, go online.

Add an extension, added power is now online.

Keep doing this until all 24TH is online, now move on to the next one.

[stenkross]

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?

[Vigil]

Except that our 24TH miners are a massive combination of many smaller miners, I doubt our farm going online would be in jumps of 24TH, I would instead imagine a gradual rise to 24TH thus making a distinction impossible.

As Ken would add the modular parts the mining capacity would increase in much smaller amounts, also Bargraphics says that he knows that miner is not us, of all people why would he lie?

No they aren't. Each 24.5TH unit relies on 1 base unit + 6 extensions. They function as a whole unit. The extensions need the base. They go on and off all at the same time.

Start with the base, go online.

Add an extension, added power is now online.

Keep doing this until all 24TH is online, now move on to the next one.

You have no way to answer the questions I posed above if this is not Ken. Ken would have run the miners off-line first during assembly.

[drawingthesun]

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?

I agree Stenkross, it's depressing that my fellow shareholders are sinking to this level. I know you all are desperate, so am I. We need to hold strong and try not to go mad.

[wonker]

... and with our 2013 sales at $6,311,788.33 we have a very good share of the market.

Real sales (trades with payment and delivery) or preorders? If you call it a sale, you can pay dividends too...

Even if these are actual sales and Ken has that money, we take a dividend on profit only, not revenue. Many things will bring that number down before it comes out to us.

Yeah sure. Dividends are calculated after expenses. Too bad we never get any detailed and really usefull reports...

Baah its a bad helpless feeling.  We cant trade any shares (not that i want to) and dont get any dividends since ages. They are worth like 0.000 for us atm. I hope this is changing soon.

[Vigil]

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?

Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

[VinceSamios]

Just crunching some numbers here...

$6,300,000 in sales
Over $1,000,000 from the Avalon refunds
Let's assume everything else has been spent.

Those sales would total around 780,000 GH (based on an average of $8/gh cost price? Big (conservative) guess here.)
Let's assume hardware cost is about $1/gh to produce - that seems to be a pretty reasonable number - bugger it, let's go conservative at $2/GH, meh, an additional 100% margin for error on conservative numbers.

$1.56mil is needed to fulfill pre-orders, which leaves ActM with $5.74mil capital.

$5.74mil spent on miners at $2/gh = 2.870 petahash

If we could get that online within a month we'd have 10% network share. Within two months we'd have 5% network share. Within 3 months 2.5% network share.
or... 360 btc/day, 180btc/day or 90btc/day respectively.

Lets say 90BTC/day - If this is paid 100% on dividends it's 0.000063btc/share/week until the first 0.0025 is paid out. Which it would within 9 months if ActM can hold 2.5% network share.

Can ActM hold network share? Well, there is only one other company we know of that is selling shovels and also mining with them, that's ASICMiner. These two companies can race to the bottom faster than any other miner, including manufacturer-miners who aren't selling hardware. In theory ActM can therefore gain network share very quickly. In theory with even just 90btc/day revenue ActM can add 36TH/day, or 1PH/month. Not including hashrate increases from sales.

I've separately calculated the chip production cost for ActM to be around $0.5/GH which makes the $/GH estimates above fairly conservative.

I almost wasn't going to bother with a best case estimate but what the hell, this place is low on positivity and christmas cheer. It's even low on pessimistic realism.

10% network share would be 0.0002769/share/week - it would take 9 weeks at that rate to pay out 0.0025 btc - OR - 144TH/day (4.3PH/month) - plus $5mil/month in hardware sales - total = 6.8PH/month
With those numbers we could rapidly grow to 20% network share which would bring us about 520 BTC/day - allowing us to add 200+TH/day or around 6.2PH/month (not including hardware sales)

TLDR;
We will have chips
We will have more pre-orders (and they will exceed order cancellations)
We will have $5.7mil+ to blow on hashrate
We will have x% market share
We will get our 0.0025 back within a year

It's just a matter of when, although even 3 months from now would make every bitching little kid in this thread very happy.

[stenkross]

Like shit. I showed the plots which documented 24.5 TH increments in hashing power at Eligius. There are no other miners which can account for that. Here are the unstable testing miners:

Ken posted a picture of some empty work benches for crying out loud.
The man is desperate for showing us something that proves he is making some kind of progress!

What reason could he possible have to not show us the ultimate proof that he succeeded and that we (and him) will be millionares?

Because the product is not in shipping condition - still working out the bugs in the software (i.e., Intellihash), which is why the hashrates are jumping all over the place. They are still being tested and Ken wants to keep the element of surprise... or Ken is secretly running a mining farm with no intention of letting anyone else know.

Nope, I am not buying it.
It is far more likely that it belongs to some *unknown ASIC manufacturer* sponsored by some *unknown VC firm* to create, set up & mine their own hardware in *their own secret location*.
That is, if all known ASIC manufacturers have been eliminated as you claim.

[67Cuda]

67Cuda, you weaken your position by posting stupid meme pictures, grow up.

My position is just fine, drawing, last thing I need is advice from a guy who gave his retirement money to an American alcoholic.
That considered, don't you go growing up too soon.  You  got many years of backbreaking workahead of you.