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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 116194 times)
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kehtolo
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January 07, 2014, 11:53:01 AM
 #421

Cool thread, I'm posting here for bookmarking purposes.

The next 24 hours are critical!
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keystroke
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January 16, 2014, 02:37:51 PM
 #422

Eager to see an update soon. Subscribing! Let 2014 be the year of the coin. And 2015, 2016...

"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
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January 25, 2014, 01:11:17 PM
 #423

Any status on the update? January is almost over and I think we are still missing the data point for december Huh or did I overlook something?
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January 25, 2014, 02:03:34 PM
 #424

I have had other projects, sorry.
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January 25, 2014, 02:31:58 PM
 #425

I have had other projects, sorry.

=--trace-route

Wink

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January 25, 2014, 02:43:50 PM
 #426

?? Smiley
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January 25, 2014, 03:33:56 PM
 #427

?? Smiley

the name itself quite explanatory ; following it (trace it)

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rpietila
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January 25, 2014, 07:15:19 PM
 #428

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.
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January 25, 2014, 09:30:22 PM
 #429

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.
greenlion
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January 26, 2014, 01:58:27 AM
 #430

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.

It's most likely dd-mm-yyyy because x is defined as the days passed since "3.1.2009", and the third of January 2009 was the date of the Genesis block.
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February 09, 2014, 01:14:37 AM
 #431

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?







You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.
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February 09, 2014, 01:32:16 AM
 #432

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?







You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.

Not sure if this was posted in seriousness, but with the "crash" this week only falling to around $650 to $700 this puts us closer to the log-log model I would think?  Of course it is part wishful thinking, but then I think that we are just barely into 2014 and if the "low" price is where we are supposed to be in June according to the Log-linear growth line we are looking at a faster rate of growth here. 

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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February 09, 2014, 03:55:19 AM
 #433

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.
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February 09, 2014, 09:59:59 AM
 #434

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.

But they are.

Markets deal with realities, not "what the price would be if ... ". Central authorities can influence prices far beyond their actual on the ground impact using propaganda, irrational psychological reactions of crowds (chilling effects) and overt price controls.

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February 09, 2014, 10:58:07 AM
 #435

I have the feeling that we have to go below the trend for some time now, and at the close of the year, we will still be in the trend channel of $3-$13k. Ahhh... boring. :p
Pruden
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February 09, 2014, 11:45:04 AM
 #436

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression. Wink
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February 09, 2014, 06:49:59 PM
 #437

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression. Wink
Bought today on margin.

Mythul
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February 09, 2014, 07:19:20 PM
 #438

Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !

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February 09, 2014, 07:20:38 PM
 #439

This is a really interesting topic.
I am wondering how I can get money to put as much in to coins/mining as possible.
I wanna be a millionare in a few years, if this expectations are true i can be.
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February 09, 2014, 08:12:14 PM
 #440

Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !

That is only 150x from here.

When I bought, it took only 2 years to 150x.

My friend bought at an opportune time in 2010, it took <1 year to 150x his money.

Yes, I say it is very much a possibility.
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