Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[Malte]

Any status on the update? January is almost over and I think we are still missing the data point for december or did I overlook something?

[1714179454]

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[1714179454]

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[1714179454]

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[rpietila]

I have had other projects, sorry.

[knightcoin]

I have had other projects, sorry.

=--trace-route

[rpietila]

??

[knightcoin]

??

the name itself quite explanatory ; following it (trace it)

[rpietila]

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

[zimmah]

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.

[greenlion]

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

is that day.month.year or month.day.year? (little known fact: there's an international date format standard, yyyy-mm-dd), sadly, it's not very commonly used.

It's most likely dd-mm-yyyy because x is defined as the days passed since "3.1.2009", and the third of January 2009 was the date of the Genesis block.

[Roger_Murdock]

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?

You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.

[BitChick]

My alternative approach - log vs log(log) from 01.11.2011 to present. Conclusion: The log-log model seems to better fit the data than the linear-log model, and according to this model we are actually slightly under the trend line. Comments?

You know, I'm starting to suspect we might not be following the super-exponential trendline.

Just kidding. $10,000 in May for sure.

Not sure if this was posted in seriousness, but with the "crash" this week only falling to around $650 to $700 this puts us closer to the log-log model I would think?  Of course it is part wishful thinking, but then I think that we are just barely into 2014 and if the "low" price is where we are supposed to be in June according to the Log-linear growth line we are looking at a faster rate of growth here. 

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

[greenlion]

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.

[marcus_of_augustus]

And that said, the price right now could be undervalued, as hard as that is to believe! 

We absolutely know that's true, because if China and other nations hadn't been imposing regulatory impediments to the preferences of firms and individuals, then the price would be significantly higher.

But they are.

Markets deal with realities, not "what the price would be if ... ". Central authorities can influence prices far beyond their actual on the ground impact using propaganda, irrational psychological reactions of crowds (chilling effects) and overt price controls.

[rpietila]

I have the feeling that we have to go below the trend for some time now, and at the close of the year, we will still be in the trend channel of $3-$13k. Ahhh... boring. :p

[Pruden]

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression.

[GCInc.]

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression.

Bought today on margin.

[Mythul]

Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !

[nickenburg]

This is a really interesting topic.
I am wondering how I can get money to put as much in to coins/mining as possible.
I wanna be a millionare in a few years, if this expectations are true i can be.

[rpietila]

Is it really possible that BTC will reach $100.000 in the next 5 years ? That will take me out of poverty for life !

That is only 150x from here.

When I bought, it took only 2 years to 150x.

My friend bought at an opportune time in 2010, it took <1 year to 150x his money.

Yes, I say it is very much a possibility.

[David Rabahy]

The first 150x was utterly trivial compared to the next 150x; this endeavor is not inevitable yet.  The next 10x is more than the climb from zero to where we are right now.  The easiest part came first with all due credit to the innovators.  Now comes the real work of converting the early majority.  Most of us are early adopters (fans beyond all rational).  Bitcoin and all derivatives thereof will be contained in a niche unless a very good plan is formulated and executed.  Absolutely nothing technical will take us there although plenty of it won't hurt.  Our only real hope to breakout is the magic of an idea whose time has come.

Find someone open-minded but clearly outside our worldview, if you can hook them then carefully analyze their process of conversion.  Gather dozens of these and synthesize from them the plan.  Be prepared to invest significantly.  Failed attempts will harden their hearts against us.

The early majority will not work like us; it is not their dream.  They are merely users.  They like the benefits but leave the growth to someone else.

[rpietila]

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression.

Bought today on margin.

Condolences.