craked5
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February 06, 2016, 09:55:04 AM |
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That snow this south in Vietnam reportedly was the first since the middle of the 17th century which incidentally was about the start of the Maunder Minimum. So it kind of gets you thinking an ice age, hopefully a mini one.
I probably don´t need to mention that the country of Vietnam is located in the tropics.
Well Algore explained something like 10 years ago that CO2 was warming the planet, which will lead to the end of the ice cap, and that the main consequence will probably be the end of the Greenwhich. And without the hot wind going through all Atlantic it's most likely we're heading towards an Ice age. It'll be a good time to live in Mexico...
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valta4065
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February 06, 2016, 10:33:19 AM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex. What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather"
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Hippie Tech
aka Amenstop
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All cryptos are FIAT digital currency. Do not use.
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February 06, 2016, 11:43:55 AM |
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Wasnt 1991 an El-nino year too?
yep.. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmJudging by that chart, El Nino has little to do with it. eg. the other "very strong" years did not register any records..
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Spendulus
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February 06, 2016, 03:47:32 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD.
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valta4065
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February 07, 2016, 02:06:14 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible.
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Spendulus
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February 07, 2016, 03:06:18 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible. No, I don't buy it one bit. In fact, what you have posted along with your disclaimers, makes almost no sense. Hate to say it, but it's just more of this totally bonkers "If it's cold it's due to Global Warming" nonsense. Blame everything on one factor through some twisted logic. So let's go at it again. 1. Cyclically, we appear close to the beginning of a new ice age now. 2. An ice age consists of sheets of permanent ice moving south in latitude from the North Pole, and north in latitude from the South Pole. 3. Increases in global temperature prevent that, decreases accelerate it. 4. Allegedly, man is increasing global temperature in significant amounts. The extent is disputed ("No temperature increase in 20 years" at present) This is not complicated. Please don't hide behind "it's complex" and "maybe it's not true" and other stuff, while at the same time trying to maintain a condescending attitude. Doesn't work very well, right?
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craked5
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February 07, 2016, 03:31:32 PM |
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"No temperature increase in 20 years" Meh? Where did you wear in the last 20 years? All records show a global temperature increase for the last 50 years but also for the last 20. It's a very strange statement you're making.
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tvbcof
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February 07, 2016, 04:29:56 PM |
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"No temperature increase in 20 years" Meh? Where did you wear in the last 20 years? All records show a global temperature increase for the last 50 years but also for the last 20. It's a very strange statement you're making. The 'hiatus' of the last 20 years is broadly accepted on all sides. Here, for example, is a 'warmista' site that just happened to come up top in a quick search: http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperaturesOf course it is widely assumed that the reason the models have been wrong and temp readings are low-balling things is that the earth is heating more or less as predicted, but the energy is hiding out somewhere where it is hard to find. The ocean is the usual culprit. For my part, given that sea surface rises are also not acting as the scare-mongers predicted, I'm a little skeptical about that explanation as well. The suggestion that natural variations in climate were seized on and pumped up as a means of gaining increased control over populations seems the strongest hypothesis to me at this point. Especially since doing essentially that, and for that particular reason, was discussed many decades ago by the same basic class of groups who are now reaping the rewards of the global climate change panic. Some people seem to indicate that when the pent up energy comes out of hiding it will be very devastating for us all and especially for [insert target animal here] unless we start paying a lot more in carbon taxes. Scam? If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
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sig spam anywhere and self-moderated threads on the pol&soc board are for losers.
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craked5
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February 07, 2016, 07:40:22 PM |
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"No temperature increase in 20 years" Meh? Where did you wear in the last 20 years? All records show a global temperature increase for the last 50 years but also for the last 20. It's a very strange statement you're making. The 'hiatus' of the last 20 years is broadly accepted on all sides. Here, for example, is a 'warmista' site that just happened to come up top in a quick search: http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperaturesOf course it is widely assumed that the reason the models have been wrong and temp readings are low-balling things is that the earth is heating more or less as predicted, but the energy is hiding out somewhere where it is hard to find. The ocean is the usual culprit. For my part, given that sea surface rises are also not acting as the scare-mongers predicted, I'm a little skeptical about that explanation as well. The suggestion that natural variations in climate were seized on and pumped up as a means of gaining increased control over populations seems the strongest hypothesis to me at this point. Especially since doing essentially that, and for that particular reason, was discussed many decades ago by the same basic class of groups who are now reaping the rewards of the global climate change panic. Some people seem to indicate that when the pent up energy comes out of hiding it will be very devastating for us all and especially for [insert target animal here] unless we start paying a lot more in carbon taxes. Scam? If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...Well, maybe I'm dumb as hell but your graph clearly show an increase of temperature Oo And so are most sources I managed to find, including NASA: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/I mean you can't see that curve and say "no it's ok it's not increasing at all" no? Oo
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Schleicher
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February 07, 2016, 07:40:53 PM |
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Seems like some people still don't understand what's happening.
The light from the sun is hitting the earth The earth is absorbing the light and produces infrared radiation CO2 is absorbing a part of this radiation. The more CO2 we have, the more energy is being absorbed With the wind the heat is moving to different places (soil, ocean, ice, etc) The melting ice is absorbing a lot of this. The water from the melted ice is cooling some parts of the ocean When most of the ice has melted then everything will heat up rapidly
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craked5
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February 07, 2016, 07:59:23 PM |
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Seems like some people still don't understand what's happening.
The light from the sun is hitting the earth The earth is absorbing the light and produces infrared radiation CO2 is absorbing a part of this radiation. The more CO2 we have, the more energy is being absorbed With the wind the heat is moving to different places (soil, ocean, ice, etc) The melting ice is absorbing a lot of this. The water from the melted ice is cooling some parts of the ocean When most of the ice has melted then everything will heat up rapidly
Simple explanation. But rather good. Just that you forgot that the wind IS the hot air. That's the same thing ^^
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valta4065
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February 07, 2016, 08:06:16 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible. No, I don't buy it one bit. In fact, what you have posted along with your disclaimers, makes almost no sense. Hate to say it, but it's just more of this totally bonkers "If it's cold it's due to Global Warming" nonsense. Blame everything on one factor through some twisted logic. So let's go at it again. 1. Cyclically, we appear close to the beginning of a new ice age now. 2. An ice age consists of sheets of permanent ice moving south in latitude from the North Pole, and north in latitude from the South Pole. 3. Increases in global temperature prevent that, decreases accelerate it. 4. Allegedly, man is increasing global temperature in significant amounts. The extent is disputed ("No temperature increase in 20 years" at present) This is not complicated. Please don't hide behind "it's complex" and "maybe it's not true" and other stuff, while at the same time trying to maintain a condescending attitude. Doesn't work very well, right? Ok so you just ignored any major change in the way that heat is stocked... Great great great... You wanna know something? The heat of the sun is not rally important, it's relatively quite a low energy amount compared to the one stocked in the Earth. Even if tomorrow the sun would just stop heating... Well it wouldn't be really bad for at least a few days. And life would remain for still thousands of millions of years (though maybe not humans xD) The important part is HOW is the warmth distributed. And that's why Ice melting and greenwhich are important...
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Spendulus
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February 07, 2016, 08:52:08 PM |
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Seems like some people still don't understand what's happening.
The light from the sun is hitting the earth The earth is absorbing the light and produces infrared radiation CO2 is absorbing a part of this radiation. The more CO2 we have, the more energy is being absorbed With the wind the heat is moving to different places (soil, ocean, ice, etc) The melting ice is absorbing a lot of this. The water from the melted ice is cooling some parts of the ocean When most of the ice has melted then everything will heat up rapidly
That does not even rise to the level of a scientific hypothesis, let alone a theory. I personally think looking at the upper stratosphere temperature is more logical, since radiative balance as the net sum of in flows and outflows occurs...at the upper stratosphere. So if you would like to argue for the use of another temperature measure, then you will have some trouble substantiating "the more CO2 we have the more energy is being absorbed." Agreed? And then one must deal with the fact that the satellite records simply do not show this warming that the Department of Temperature Adjusters keeps telling you is happening on the ground.
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Spendulus
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February 07, 2016, 09:02:50 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible. No, I don't buy it one bit. In fact, what you have posted along with your disclaimers, makes almost no sense. Hate to say it, but it's just more of this totally bonkers "If it's cold it's due to Global Warming" nonsense. Blame everything on one factor through some twisted logic. So let's go at it again. 1. Cyclically, we appear close to the beginning of a new ice age now. 2. An ice age consists of sheets of permanent ice moving south in latitude from the North Pole, and north in latitude from the South Pole. 3. Increases in global temperature prevent that, decreases accelerate it. 4. Allegedly, man is increasing global temperature in significant amounts. The extent is disputed ("No temperature increase in 20 years" at present) This is not complicated. Please don't hide behind "it's complex" and "maybe it's not true" and other stuff, while at the same time trying to maintain a condescending attitude. Doesn't work very well, right? Ok so you just ignored any major change in the way that heat is stocked... Great great great... You wanna know something? The heat of the sun is not rally important, it's relatively quite a low energy amount compared to the one stocked in the Earth. Even if tomorrow the sun would just stop heating... Well it wouldn't be really bad for at least a few days. And life would remain for still thousands of millions of years (though maybe not humans xD)The important part is HOW is the warmth distributed. And that's why Ice melting and greenwhich are important... that's crazy talk. Within 48-72 hours all the carbon dioxide would be falling as snow, then the nitrogen would liquify, then the oxygen, then the surface would be a vacuum. the only life left would be spores, virus, other things that can survive in a vacuum at cryogenic temperatures. The heat from the sun is over a kilowatt per square meter, of which about 1/4 makes it in to the surface IIRC. Regarding this ridiculous statement you have made... yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible.You have not proved this and cannot. You are saying outright that something can get hotter because it gets colder or colder because it gets hotter. But at the same time you want to claim that if it gets hotter it gets hotter. Well, make up your mind, please. You want to be able to claim that your predetermined outcome will occur no matter if it gets hotter or colder. This is nonsense, and it ignores the basic facts regarding climate. Namely, we are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. Period. Look at the historical record of ice ages and warm ages, please. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age
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valta4065
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February 07, 2016, 09:38:04 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible. No, I don't buy it one bit. In fact, what you have posted along with your disclaimers, makes almost no sense. Hate to say it, but it's just more of this totally bonkers "If it's cold it's due to Global Warming" nonsense. Blame everything on one factor through some twisted logic. So let's go at it again. 1. Cyclically, we appear close to the beginning of a new ice age now. 2. An ice age consists of sheets of permanent ice moving south in latitude from the North Pole, and north in latitude from the South Pole. 3. Increases in global temperature prevent that, decreases accelerate it. 4. Allegedly, man is increasing global temperature in significant amounts. The extent is disputed ("No temperature increase in 20 years" at present) This is not complicated. Please don't hide behind "it's complex" and "maybe it's not true" and other stuff, while at the same time trying to maintain a condescending attitude. Doesn't work very well, right? Ok so you just ignored any major change in the way that heat is stocked... Great great great... You wanna know something? The heat of the sun is not rally important, it's relatively quite a low energy amount compared to the one stocked in the Earth. Even if tomorrow the sun would just stop heating... Well it wouldn't be really bad for at least a few days. And life would remain for still thousands of millions of years (though maybe not humans xD)The important part is HOW is the warmth distributed. And that's why Ice melting and greenwhich are important... that's crazy talk. Within 48-72 hours all the carbon dioxide would be falling as snow, then the nitrogen would liquify, then the oxygen, then the surface would be a vacuum. the only life left would be spores, virus, other things that can survive in a vacuum at cryogenic temperatures. The heat from the sun is over a kilowatt per square meter, of which about 1/4 makes it in to the surface IIRC. Regarding this ridiculous statement you have made... yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible.You have not proved this and cannot. You are saying outright that something can get hotter because it gets colder or colder because it gets hotter. But at the same time you want to claim that if it gets hotter it gets hotter. Well, make up your mind, please. You want to be able to claim that your predetermined outcome will occur no matter if it gets hotter or colder. This is nonsense, and it ignores the basic facts regarding climate. Namely, we are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. Period. Look at the historical record of ice ages and warm ages, please. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_ageSorry I wasn't really clear, I was talking about the surface temperature which is mainly due to degradation of radioactive elements inside Earth. But for sure the consequences on the atmosphere would be much stronger. Thanks for the link. Here is, in a better English, exactly what we tried to explain you: "Another important contribution to ancient climate regimes is the variation of ocean currents, which are modified by continent position, sea levels and salinity, as well as other factors. They have the ability to cool (e.g. aiding the creation of Antarctic ice) and the ability to warm (e.g. giving the British Isles a temperate as opposed to a boreal climate). The closing of the Isthmus of Panama about 3 million years ago may have ushered in the present period of strong glaciation over North America by ending the exchange of water between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.[47] Analyses suggest that ocean current fluctuations can adequately account for recent glacial oscillations. During the last glacial period the sea-level has fluctuated 20–30 m as water was sequestered, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. When ice collected and the sea level dropped sufficiently, flow through the Bering Strait (the narrow strait between Siberia and Alaska is ~50 m deep today) was reduced, resulting in increased flow from the North Atlantic. This realigned the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic, increasing heat transport into the Arctic, which melted the polar ice accumulation and reduced other continental ice sheets. The release of water raised sea levels again, restoring the ingress of colder water from the Pacific with an accompanying shift to northern hemisphere ice accumulation." So yeah, making it hotter will change salinity which will change ocean currents which will influence the beginning of the Ice Age.
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tvbcof
Legendary
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February 07, 2016, 11:02:27 PM |
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"No temperature increase in 20 years" Meh? Where did you wear in the last 20 years? All records show a global temperature increase for the last 50 years but also for the last 20. It's a very strange statement you're making. The 'hiatus' of the last 20 years is broadly accepted on all sides. Here, for example, is a 'warmista' site that just happened to come up top in a quick search: http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperaturesOf course it is widely assumed that the reason the models have been wrong and temp readings are low-balling things is that the earth is heating more or less as predicted, but the energy is hiding out somewhere where it is hard to find. The ocean is the usual culprit. For my part, given that sea surface rises are also not acting as the scare-mongers predicted, I'm a little skeptical about that explanation as well. The suggestion that natural variations in climate were seized on and pumped up as a means of gaining increased control over populations seems the strongest hypothesis to me at this point. Especially since doing essentially that, and for that particular reason, was discussed many decades ago by the same basic class of groups who are now reaping the rewards of the global climate change panic. Some people seem to indicate that when the pent up energy comes out of hiding it will be very devastating for us all and especially for [insert target animal here] unless we start paying a lot more in carbon taxes. Scam? If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck...Well, maybe I'm dumb as hell but your graph clearly show an increase of temperature Oo And so are most sources I managed to find, including NASA: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/I mean you can't see that curve and say "no it's ok it's not increasing at all" no? Oo Go argue with the warmistas. Almost without exception, the basic construct of the warming 'hiatus' of the last 20 years is accepted among scientists of all stripes. The problem is how to deal with it. For the sheeple, it is easy. Tell them 'hottest year ever' every year. They don't understand margin of errors anyway and even if they did, their memory span is measured in weeks. For other scientists it is a more tricky issue. But as a 'climate scientist' one can make lemonade out of lemons; anyone who adds to the 70-ish and growing explainations for what might have eaten the energy trapped by the evil man-made greenhouse gasses can expect accolades and grant money to come out of their ears.
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sig spam anywhere and self-moderated threads on the pol&soc board are for losers.
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galdur
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February 07, 2016, 11:15:42 PM |
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Weird Mexico...
“”Los meteorólogos afirman no obstante que la sensación de frío que se vive entre la población es mayor a lo habitual debido a que el fenómeno de El Niño demoró en mucho el ingreso de invierno y que cuando llegó lo hizo de forma más intensa que antes””
They blame El Niño for a late harsh winter.
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Spendulus
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February 07, 2016, 11:24:01 PM |
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Shuuuuuuuuut Galdur... It is ALL coincidences if we're breaking every records concerning meteorological events and temperatures. It would have happened anyway no? Where is the proof of the link with pollution CO2 and human activities? Apart from the entire world scientific community even if they perfectly admit they have legitimate doubts concerning the extent of such impact due to the incredible complexity of such a system. They still all agree on the fact that we're going to bite the dust. And Nature show it too. But better continue to consume and pollute and destroy the gift of God. I don´t know; maybe we´re heading into an ice age and scientists and experts will in due course figure out that CO2 emissions in fact cause cooling. The attention span of modern man seems to be on par with that of the common housefly so most people probably wouldn´t even notice the switch. Well, hard to deduce the consequences of something so complex.What's sure though it's we gonna hit the consequences the hard way. And those idiots will just be there freezing or burning "where is your proof, it's just normal weather" Deduce the consequences? It's a system that mathematically exhibits chaotic behavior. You don't "deduce the consequences" or look for linear trend extensions in such a system. Statistical averages exist, sure - but what of the Maunder Minimum, and the Medievel warm periods? These indicate longer term trends, 300 to 1500 years. Statistical averages and "outliers" presume a background without such trends. If we are headed toward a mini ice age, face it, warmers. The slight effect of human induced warming through CO2 emissions is GOOD, not BAD. Wow. So limited understanding of a complex system. Ok I'll try to explain it to you: CO2 warms the Earth Average temperature increases Ice melts Salt concentration in oceans changes The incredibly complex and fragile system of warm circulation is blocked Greenwhich dies We enter an Ice Age That's the theory. Not saying it's true, in fact NO ONE is saying it's the absolute truth, but it's a theory supported by multiple experiments and being backed by most global warming specialists. The important fact is that yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible. No, I don't buy it one bit. In fact, what you have posted along with your disclaimers, makes almost no sense. Hate to say it, but it's just more of this totally bonkers "If it's cold it's due to Global Warming" nonsense. Blame everything on one factor through some twisted logic. So let's go at it again. 1. Cyclically, we appear close to the beginning of a new ice age now. 2. An ice age consists of sheets of permanent ice moving south in latitude from the North Pole, and north in latitude from the South Pole. 3. Increases in global temperature prevent that, decreases accelerate it. 4. Allegedly, man is increasing global temperature in significant amounts. The extent is disputed ("No temperature increase in 20 years" at present) This is not complicated. Please don't hide behind "it's complex" and "maybe it's not true" and other stuff, while at the same time trying to maintain a condescending attitude. Doesn't work very well, right? Ok so you just ignored any major change in the way that heat is stocked... Great great great... You wanna know something? The heat of the sun is not rally important, it's relatively quite a low energy amount compared to the one stocked in the Earth. Even if tomorrow the sun would just stop heating... Well it wouldn't be really bad for at least a few days. And life would remain for still thousands of millions of years (though maybe not humans xD)The important part is HOW is the warmth distributed. And that's why Ice melting and greenwhich are important... that's crazy talk. Within 48-72 hours all the carbon dioxide would be falling as snow, then the nitrogen would liquify, then the oxygen, then the surface would be a vacuum. the only life left would be spores, virus, other things that can survive in a vacuum at cryogenic temperatures. The heat from the sun is over a kilowatt per square meter, of which about 1/4 makes it in to the surface IIRC. Regarding this ridiculous statement you have made... yes you can freeze the Earth with CO2. That's possible.You have not proved this and cannot. You are saying outright that something can get hotter because it gets colder or colder because it gets hotter. But at the same time you want to claim that if it gets hotter it gets hotter. Well, make up your mind, please. You want to be able to claim that your predetermined outcome will occur no matter if it gets hotter or colder. This is nonsense, and it ignores the basic facts regarding climate. Namely, we are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. Period. Look at the historical record of ice ages and warm ages, please. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_ageSorry I wasn't really clear, I was talking about the surface temperature which is mainly due to degradation of radioactive elements inside Earth. But for sure the consequences on the atmosphere would be much stronger. Thanks for the link. Here is, in a better English, exactly what we tried to explain you: "Another important contribution to ancient climate regimes is the variation of ocean currents, which are modified by continent position, sea levels and salinity, as well as other factors. They have the ability to cool (e.g. aiding the creation of Antarctic ice) and the ability to warm (e.g. giving the British Isles a temperate as opposed to a boreal climate). The closing of the Isthmus of Panama about 3 million years ago may have ushered in the present period of strong glaciation over North America by ending the exchange of water between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.[47] Analyses suggest that ocean current fluctuations can adequately account for recent glacial oscillations. During the last glacial period the sea-level has fluctuated 20–30 m as water was sequestered, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. When ice collected and the sea level dropped sufficiently, flow through the Bering Strait (the narrow strait between Siberia and Alaska is ~50 m deep today) was reduced, resulting in increased flow from the North Atlantic. This realigned the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic, increasing heat transport into the Arctic, which melted the polar ice accumulation and reduced other continental ice sheets. The release of water raised sea levels again, restoring the ingress of colder water from the Pacific with an accompanying shift to northern hemisphere ice accumulation." So yeah, making it hotter will change salinity which will change ocean currents which will influence the beginning of the Ice Age. You have three errors in your lecturing. We take them one by one. No, the surface temperature is not primarily due to the temperatures at the Earth's core. Study the "radiation budget", here is a link. This is very well established science. Here is the answer from a prime "warmer resource," http://www.skepticalscience.com/heatflow.htmlCommon sense might suggest that all that heat must have a big effect on climate. But the science says no: the amount of heat energy coming out of the Earth is actually very small and the rate of flow of that heat is very steady over long time periods. The effect on the climate is in fact too small to be worth considering.Here is a brief discussion of the energy budget. http://missionscience.nasa.gov/ems/13_radiationbudget.htmlNext, interglacials caused by ocean currents? No, they are not. It is well established that they are the product of periodic variation in the Earth's orbit. The interglacials and glacials coincide with cyclic changes in the Earth's orbit. Three orbital variations contribute to interglacials. The first is a change in the Earth's orbit around the sun, or eccentricity. The second is a shift in the tilt of the Earth's axis, the obliquity. The third is precession, or wobbling motion of Earth's axis.[1] Warm summers in the northern hemisphere occur when that hemisphere is tilted toward the sun and the Earth is nearest the sun in its elliptical orbit. Cool summers occur when the Earth is farthest from the sun during that season. These effects are more pronounced when the eccentricity of the orbit is large. When the obliquity is large, seasonal changes are more extreme.[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/InterglacialFinally, you have a rather interesting statement. ... making it hotter will change salinity which will change ocean currents which will influence the beginning of the Ice Age. No scientific findings support the certainty in your statement (bolded.) They cannot, because this is outright speculation. Here is the statement corrected to a reasonable level. ... IF CO2 produced by man makes the Earth hotter this MIGHT CHANGE salinity which MIGHT AFFECT ocean currents which MIGHT influence the beginning of the Ice Age. That's obvious speculation, why not just state it as such? Obviously it isn't factual or supported by scientific findings. It's totally reasonable to discuss as speculation, but it's unacceptable to consider or promote as fact.
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Spendulus
Legendary
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February 07, 2016, 11:26:44 PM |
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Go argue with the warmistas. Almost without exception, the basic construct of the warming 'hiatus' of the last 20 years is accepted among scientists of all stripes. The problem is how to deal with it. For the sheeple, it is easy. Tell them 'hottest year ever' every year. They don't understand margin of errors anyway and even if they did, their memory span is measured in weeks. For other scientists it is a more tricky issue. But as a 'climate scientist' one can make lemonade out of lemons; anyone who adds to the 70-ish and growing explainations for what might have eaten the energy trapped by the evil man-made greenhouse gasses can expect accolades and grant money to come out of their ears.
The extent of the mythology and warping of scientific facts on the subject of global warming cannot ever cease to amaze.
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