rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[calmindifference]

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Fully agree with 2/2. The sentiment of the bitcoin community year to date is reminiscent of the gold/silver community of 2011-2013.

[Biodom]

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Too short a timeframe chosen resulting in less probable graphs, in my opinion.
It looks like a carbon copy of TERAs.

[Arghhh]

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Dude, that makes no sense. Your lines selectively touch one or two points of data while ignoring the rest of the data points. It's just arbitrarily drawn in.  

No sense.

[pinksheep]

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

[Ronan-]

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Too short a timeframe chosen resulting in less probable graphs, in my opinion.
It looks like a carbon copy of TERAs.

The timeframe is valid for the timeframe, so if the week candle closes distinctively outside the trendline the breakout is likely. On an hour timeframe, this would not be accurate. On dailys, this would be relatively accurate. Yes it is similar to TERA's, however offers both log and linear in one picture and thus shows more possible points to come to if the trends aren't broken before. Simply more data

[liexel]

Question: In light of the current dip, buy now or later?

[wobber]

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

Random lines on Ronan's graph (yellow).

[MahaRamana]

Question: In light of the current dip, buy now or later?

The downtrend is quite firmly established. Technical analysis is very bearish short term. We have no reversal.

Buying now might be a good choice, but we will not know before some time. It's the falling knifes... Are you buying for long term investment ?
With a short term perspective it's a bit foolish to buy right now.

[rpietila]

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

[wobber]

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

We're pretty running out of time. As months pass we get less and less chances to go higher. For me, it seem price makes lower highs, and lower lows... Bearish for the next 6 months at least (which goes to end of 2014)

[rpietila]

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

We're pretty running out of time. As months pass we get less and less chances to go higher. For me, it seem price makes lower highs, and lower lows... Bearish for the next 6 months at least (which goes to end of 2014)

2010, 2013 were stellar years.
2011 quite good
2012 decent
2009 price did not go up, but if you mined coins, you were hardly disappointed.

The years are different. After closing 2013 above the trend, we might close 2014 below the trend. But even then I'd suggest $3000 and a new ATH. On the other hand, after 2010-11 megabubble (6400x increase in price), the hangover lasted for 20 months, so it is not entirely ruled out, because some claim that Bitcoin's growth is slowing.

That is why it is so interesting. I refrain from making any percentage predictions for now, because many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

And here is the UPDATED 2014 prediction contest, which REALLY determines who can predict and who is just breathing hot air.

[chessnut]

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

[rpietila]

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

[windjc]

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

Yeah, so wouldn't everybody. But unless you are just going to con someone who is an idiot, if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories. Sure, just like in poker, with skill and research you can better your odds. But there is still risk.

[rpietila]

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

Yeah, so wouldn't everybody. But unless you are just going to con someone who is an idiot, if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories. Sure, just like in poker, with skill and research you can better your odds. But there is still risk.

In this case, I wanted somebody to bet with me on my terms.
You wanted me to bet with you on your terms.

Nobody accepted.

I get all the blame.

You are not successful enough, bro. Nobody hates you.

Your terms were fair in general, but not the type of bet I was interested in. (The carry risk for me is (k *capital * time), and for a bet likely resulting in a wash, it would turn it -EV for both.)

[pinksheep]

rPietila, you say $3-12mB (I don't have the bitcoin symbol). Forgive my ignorance; I know that an mB is a fraction of a BTC but can't remember how much. Can you enlighten me?

[jmw74]

m = milli. 1/1000.

There is a button for BTC in the toolbar when composing your message.

[pinksheep]

Thanks jmw74 

[aepfel]

1 BTC = 1000 mBTC
1 mBTC = 1000 µBTC (or mybe the new phrase "bits")
1 µBTC = 100 Satoshi

1 Satoshi = 0.01 µBTC
1 µBTC = 0.001 mBTC
1 mBTC = 0.001 BTC

The BTC-symbol can be found 2 buttons above this emote.

[TERA]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.