rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

I have talked to him personally on chat. not very convincing in his reasoning, although his count is valid. A valid count is all you need to make money with EW, be it right or wrong, but there are better bullish counts that are equally if not more valid.

[rpietila]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.

Two cases:

- Bitcoin is broken and adoption reverses

- Previously unimaginable attack on exchanges makes all bitcoin exchange go off-chart (essentially Mt.Gox price all over again).

Otherwise no frigging chance. (Yes, the two cases are realistic, but not probable enough for me to willing to lighten up my position or do anything else.)

[windjc]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

[frienemy]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.

There is another thread already discussing that one.

I looked at the video about 2 or 3 minutes until I realised it's 3 hours long and then gave up. But anyway, for the price going down like that, there would be too many prerequisites and I don't think EW analysis has to be right all the time and there are multiple interpretations regarding EWs on graphs. Furthermore, all the hodlers would have to sell, which is improbable IMO. In addition, no fresh money would have to come in, no Wall St., no Winklevoss, no new technology making bitcoin even more attractive.

I agree with you, bitcoin might come down a bit, although I'm not as bearish as you short term. Actually I hope the bottom was already in, but I'm prepared for hodling through further dips as long as it goes up in the end, even if that would take a while.

[pinksheep]

Forgive my ignorance again but what does the EW stand for in EW analysis?

[chessnut]

Forgive my ignorance again but what does the EW stand for in EW analysis?

Elliot Wave.
Its wave theory, theorised first by a fella called Elliot.

[wachtwoord]

if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories.

If you don't bet for profit: you're doing it wrong.

[pinksheep]

Oh of course, Thanks, I should have known that  

[threecats]

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break.  What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

Actually Dan was calling 400's back at 850.One would have made a shitload of money following his model. Say what you want about his low end, but to call him 'consistantly wrong' is undeserved.

[Dalmar]

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

[wachtwoord]

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

[Dalmar]

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

He's fairly new to bitcoin and only started charting it around the China bubble. So, we can't really say that he would have been bearish in previous cycles.

[wachtwoord]

So he was 100% right during a bear market crash situation of a few months? Big whoop. Just going all in on the highest leverage money can buy in the stock market crash of 2000, right up until the crash also gives enormous returns. That doesn't make it a good strategy.

What losses would this strategy have made in previous years?

He's fairly new to bitcoin and only started charting it around the China bubble. So, we can't really say that he would have been bearish in previous cycles.

No, so please don't draw any (good or bad) conclusions on the results of his 3 seconds of fame.

[TERA]

ok I stopped watching his video when he kept using this chart that began in late 2011 and he guessed that the high in 2011 was $11.

[Dalmar]

ok I stopped watching his video when he kept using this chart that began in late 2011 and he guessed that the high in 2011 was $11.

He is aware of Mt.Gox's longer price history and has charted it before, but it's not available on tradingview anymore. For sake of convenience during the lecture he chose that random spot on bitstamp to point out elliott waves. It was not meant as the literal early wave and has no influence on further analysis.

[Arghhh]

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

In January at ~850 he was calling 400 way before the Gox fiasco. - Check
In March he said that the rise to 700 was not a reversal and retest of 400 was imminent. - Check
Recently, he spotted the fractal pattern early in the mid-500s and suggested to short. - Check

If you followed his TA since early 2014 you made serious money.

A bear being correct during a downtrend? No way! Get out of here!

 

[Biodom]

Better real estate for bitcoin (a bit pricey is a downturn, though):

http://cryptocrimson.com/2014/04/9462-btc-buy-23-room-hotel-island-sardinia/

https://twitter.com/BitPremier/status/460791272148459520/photo/1

[rjp55]

Sounds settled then. Why argue with skeptic speculators when you can follow his every word and make a fortune?

Go, go, go....

[2017orso]

Dan was predicting sub $60 when we were >$100 right before acceleration to ATH.

Being bearish after the ATH is not a sign of much but common sense, regardless whether lines are drawn.

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets.  Bitcoin is none of those.

If you want to follow the price predictions of TA, 4xforecaster at least has some sense.  Instead of being stubborn about wave counts, he is objective and malleable regarding actual order dynamics.

Needless to say, I am quite excited we are entering depression amongst the small players, while institutional level demand is increasing off the exchanges. 

[chessnut]

EW was a pattern observed retroactively for decades worth of data in saturated / mature markets.  Bitcoin is none of those.

EW certainly applies to bitcoin. very clearly. the constant is not the market, the constant is people/herd psychology - old as the hills. wave counts can be ambiguous, but I promise you Bitcoin offers some of the clearest junctures you will eves see. this is because people are very emotionally attached, and prone to panic/greed.