btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[dhsc19]

Why are there still any speculation that this may or may not be a scam?  This is an HYIP!  There are hundreds of them and they all operate the same way.  There is no arbitrage trading, there is no oil rig contracts, there is no flipping abandoned African commercial real estate to turn them into hot ticket malls, or whatever cover story there may be.  There is no real business behind any of these...period!  It is a game...learn how to play it.  Anyone playing HYIPs with the mindset that these are "legit" businesses to begin with are setting themselves up for failure and a bad overall experience with HYIP.  If you understand that you a playing a ponzi game, then you can plan accordingly and give yourself better odds.  No one seems to mind playing lotteries, but everyone seems to freak out and go in an uproar when it comes to ponzis.  To me, I think you have better odds of at least making a minimal profit with ponzis, than losing all in lotteries.  You just have to play them correctly.  At least with ponzis, you can use your social engineering skills to negotiate with the admins. 

LOL. Doesn't matter what you say to some people. They'll deny it all day long even when its here and staring them in the face. Paying or Scam lol.

LOL!  Yeah, seriously!  I'm just laughing (and I'm sure admins watching this thread are getting a kick out it) because post after post it's "I hope they're legit...I hope btc-arbs will get their act together...".  I'm seeing this and I'm just thinking, if people would just wake up and get their heads out of the clouds we can actually have some real discussion about how we as investors/gamblers can strategize to do better with these ponzi games rather post after post of people speculating on whether or not the ponzi ITSELF is a legit business to begin with.  There is no legit ponzi...it's a freakin' PONZI!  LOL!  I mean are people REALLY this shallow?  Well, maybe the question has already been answered...and why ponzis work so well for admins.  The other funny thing is, the moment anyone starts to say, "Ok, it's a ponzi, wanna start being smart about it?"  It's met with, "You're a scammer!  You've got an agenda!" 

Anyway, I'm just a player trying to figure out the game and I think the more we can educate ourselves about how the game works the better it is for all of us.  Oh, well.....I guess I have a better chance hoping that BTC-arbs is legit than to see any smart discussion going on...

We now return you back to your regularly scheduled dramafest...

[lesnod11]

I got slightly more than 1% transferred today from legacy to active..... lets hope this continues (although I'm going to doubt it).

[fraMI]

I just transferred 0.35 bit coin from my regular account to my wallet.  The withdrawal went real smooth. From my request, till it showed up in my wallet took less than 2 hours.  I still have 2.859 bitcoins in Legacy. I would have left the .35 bit coin in the account, but the interest has been so lousy lately, I can do better elsewhere.

[NullOp]

Has anyone here tried arbitrage for real?

Hypothetically. People send me bitcoin. I sell on coinbase and get cash. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin. I transfer to coinbase, I sell, there is profit. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin.

At this time...

$444.75 coinbase sell price
$431.7 btc-e buy price

$45 international bank wire fee

0.2%-0.5% btc-e fee
0.01 btc-e withdrawal fee

X bitcoins

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = X

x=4.534534118461 bitcoins for break even

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.02X

x=22.393431406065  bitcoins for 2% gain

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.025X

x=1454.57777767135 bitcoins for 2.5% gain

The gain can be completely wiped out by volatility (or increased)

[FreeJack2k2]

The method is flawed. Here's how to do it...

First, have a balance on the exchanges you want to operate on (BTC-e and Bitstamp being the big two). Keep the majority in fiat, with a VERY small amount in Bitcoin (like 1-2 bitcoin) which you buy at the start of the trading day on the cheaper exchange and transfer it to the higher exchange (this is if you aren't all in Bitcoin due to a confirmed uptrend in price).

When there is an arbitrage opportunity, you buy on the lower exchange in an amount less than or equal to the amount of Bitcoin you hold on the higher exchange, and simultaneously sell on the higher exchange. Transfer the just-purchased Bitcoin to the higher exchange. When it arrives at the selling exchange, if the arbitrage spread is still meeting your percentage requirements, keep doing it until the spread narrows. As the spread narrows or volatility increases you may want to keep Bitcoin in the selling exchange, because every now and then it reverses and the "selling" exchange becomes the "buying" exchange and the process reverses. Doing it this way by keeping the amount of Bitcoin you're holding at any given time small, you limit your exposure to volatility losses.

You would have to pay attention to the moving averages and if Bitcoin starts to move into a sustained uptrend, you'll want to be in Bitcoin and not fiat, and stop arbitrage trading until it goes into a downtrend. Arbitrage is best during downtrends where you don't want to be all-in Bitcoin. But if you're done for the day, tally up your fiat total on all exchanges and compare it to the start of the day, to determine your profit after all the transfer fees and whatnot. Then once in a while you have to rebalance via wire transfer, unless you get lucky and the exchanges approach parity, and you can just move Bitcoin and rebalance that way. Then turn on your automated trading bot (like Butterbot for instance) for the overnight session and walk away.

Has anyone here tried arbitrage for real?

Hypothetically. People send me bitcoin. I sell on coinbase and get cash. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin. I transfer to coinbase, I sell, there is profit. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin.

At this time...

$444.75 coinbase sell price
$431.7 btc-e buy price

$45 international bank wire fee

0.2%-0.5% btc-e fee
0.01 btc-e withdrawal fee

X bitcoins

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = X

x=4.534534118461 bitcoins for break even

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.02X

x=22.393431406065  bitcoins for 2% gain

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.025X

x=1454.57777767135 bitcoins for 2.5% gain

The gain can be completely wiped out by volatility (or increased)

[NullOp]

Btc-e is always cheaper. What is the benefit of keeping fiat on the more expensive one?

Edit: How about this (i'm just throwing this out there)....

Hypothetically. People send me bitcoin. I sell half on coinbase and get cash. This is peoples' investment (cash + bitcoin). People assume the risk.

I wire money to btc-e. I buy bitcoin at btc-e (up to the maximum of the amount held on coinbase) and sell the (equivalent bitcoin-50% of calculated gains) on coinbase to take advantage of arbitrage if it exists. I transfer bitcoins to coinbase, and repeat...
 
The aim of the 50% calculated gains subtraction above is to keep gains in bitcoin and in fiat. The fiat grows at btc-e and grows at coinbase. It prevents the situation of all gains being in fiat.

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

Anyone want to help me turn this thing into a legit business? I could do with a PHP developer, a cat, honda civic, and a Frappucino.

The method is flawed. Here's how to do it...

First, have a balance on the exchanges you want to operate on (BTC-e and Bitstamp being the big two). Keep the majority in fiat, with a VERY small amount in Bitcoin (like 1-2 bitcoin) which you buy at the start of the trading day on the cheaper exchange and transfer it to the higher exchange (this is if you aren't all in Bitcoin due to a confirmed uptrend in price).

When there is an arbitrage opportunity, you buy on the lower exchange in an amount less than or equal to the amount of Bitcoin you hold on the higher exchange, and simultaneously sell on the higher exchange. Transfer the just-purchased Bitcoin to the higher exchange. When it arrives at the selling exchange, if the arbitrage spread is still meeting your percentage requirements, keep doing it until the spread narrows. As the spread narrows or volatility increases you may want to keep Bitcoin in the selling exchange, because every now and then it reverses and the "selling" exchange becomes the "buying" exchange and the process reverses. Doing it this way by keeping the amount of Bitcoin you're holding at any given time small, you limit your exposure to volatility losses.

You would have to pay attention to the moving averages and if Bitcoin starts to move into a sustained uptrend, you'll want to be in Bitcoin and not fiat, and stop arbitrage trading until it goes into a downtrend. Arbitrage is best during downtrends where you don't want to be all-in Bitcoin. But if you're done for the day, tally up your fiat total on all exchanges and compare it to the start of the day, to determine your profit after all the transfer fees and whatnot. Then once in a while you have to rebalance via wire transfer, unless you get lucky and the exchanges approach parity, and you can just move Bitcoin and rebalance that way. Then turn on your automated trading bot (like Butterbot for instance) for the overnight session and walk away.

Has anyone here tried arbitrage for real?

Hypothetically. People send me bitcoin. I sell on coinbase and get cash. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin. I transfer to coinbase, I sell, there is profit. I wire money to btc-e, I buy bitcoin.

At this time...

$444.75 coinbase sell price
$431.7 btc-e buy price

$45 international bank wire fee

0.2%-0.5% btc-e fee
0.01 btc-e withdrawal fee

X bitcoins

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = X

x=4.534534118461 bitcoins for break even

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.02X

x=22.393431406065  bitcoins for 2% gain

(((X * $444.75) - $45 ) / $431.7) * 0.995 - 0.01 = 1.025X

x=1454.57777767135 bitcoins for 2.5% gain

The gain can be completely wiped out by volatility (or increased)

[jean92]

until I test ca Reduce waiting  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=601370.0

[Rannasha]

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

[ilic]

Good news everyone!

So i've had 0.21 sitting in my legacy account for the last few weeks.  Most days, about 0.0003 or 0.0005 was being moved across into my non-legacy account.  Overnight i've had 0.01 moved across out of my legacy account.

I know it's not a huge amount but compared to what's been happening it looks like things are moving in the right direction.

[NullOp]

With the example I gave, theoretical gains were about 2% but that is at the point of transaction. Due to the fiat transfer delays, this means it is 2% per fiat transfer cycle (e.g. 5 business days). If the operation was staggered so a fiat transfer was performed daily with a fraction of the funds, then deposits could happen on a daily basis and daily arbitrage is possible, but as you say, the gains over the entire funds deposited to them per day would be 2% * fraction of total funds used.

I hadn't done the math. I realize now that it isn't possible to achieve what they did unless they have a method of depositing fiat within a day.

What exchanges do you use for arbitrage? Is that non-fiat transactions? Is it worthwhile?

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

[dyask]

I hadn't done the math. I realize now that it isn't possible to achieve what they did unless they have a method of depositing fiat within a day.

There are more ways to move fait than just wire transfers.  (Although the comments often did say they were using wire transfers)
For example, LTC could be similar on the two different exchanges.  Convert fiat to LTC, move and convert back.   There is risks doing that since prices can change and there are costs involved. 

Another thing to keep in mind is that the price difference between exchanges is sometimes much greater.  The was more common in Feb and part of March.

[Light]

I hadn't done the math. I realize now that it isn't possible to achieve what they did unless they have a method of depositing fiat within a day.

Even if they had been able to achieve those profits consistently - it doesn't make sense that they would share it. If we're assuming their 1% a day you'd already have gotten ~ 3700% in a year. That much should quite easily tell you that it wasn't possible; most scams try to balance you between reality and greed. Too low a profit and no one will try and too high and everyone will not invest because they know its a scam.

[NullOp]

3700% per year if that rate continues. I somehow rationalized that it wasn't sustainable because it would impact the market. While it was small, that the arbitrage was possible. I also rationalized that they kept most of the profits for themselves. I also rationalized that they needed significant funds from others to overcome wire fees - why they didn't do this themselves.

I made mistakes. I won't do anything like this again. Anyway, I hear people talking about some penny stock going for 4 cents. There is much more upside than downside so I think it is a sure thing.

[lesnod11]

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

I believe the idea was to actually do arbitrage, they did pay for drawn pictures of both "profits" and "loss's", but I believe that was on paper before they started. Probably not far into the planning stages did they realize they couldn't give out the increase they were thinking of and by then too much money had been spent on the site and pictures and what not..... by the time they opened it was just a scam and stayed that way.

[dhsc19]

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

I believe the idea was to actually do arbitrage, they did pay for drawn pictures of both "profits" and "loss's", but I believe that was on paper before they started. Probably not far into the planning stages did they realize they couldn't give out the increase they were thinking of and by then too much money had been spent on the site and pictures and what not..... by the time they opened it was just a scam and stayed that way.

PEOPLE!!  It's a SCRIPT!  Look at goldcoders dot com.  It's automated BS.  Do we really need to analyse this?

[FreeJack2k2]

Btc-e is always cheaper. What is the benefit of keeping fiat on the more expensive one?

BTC-e isn't always cheaper, that's the thing. Many times when there's high volatility, the roles reverse and BTC-e actually has the more expensive price. It doesn't usually last very long, as I think a lot of arbitrageurs use that chance to rebalance from their usual selling exchange...but it does happen. When volatility is low, though, you're right...BTC-e is normally the lower price.

[FreeJack2k2]

This is some more food for thought, which I started considering toward the end as I prepared to start withdrawing my money (right before Easter and the big lockdown).

If they WERE doing arbitrage with the method I describe, every deposit a user made in bitcoin was instantly converted to fiat at the current market price. If you deposited at $450/BTC for instance, and withdrew at $350/BTC, they were going to be gaining $100 per Bitcoin. If, however, you were to deposit at $450 and withdraw everything at say $600, they lose $150/Bitcoin...because they're buying the Bitcoin you withdraw using their fiat reserves, to satisfy your withdrawal request (unless they were able to do it with new deposits before they were converted).

So the method of having people deposit BTC and have their balance reflected in BTC works out great when Bitcoin is in a downtrend...but if suddenly it spikes up and people start withdrawing at the higher price, you're going to be bleeding profits...so if you were thinking of doing this as a side-line income with other peoples' investments, only take money in fiat...not Bitcoin.

I will be doing it with my own money, at some point.

[sunny1]

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

I believe the idea was to actually do arbitrage, they did pay for drawn pictures of both "profits" and "loss's", but I believe that was on paper before they started. Probably not far into the planning stages did they realize they couldn't give out the increase they were thinking of and by then too much money had been spent on the site and pictures and what not..... by the time they opened it was just a scam and stayed that way.

PEOPLE!!  It's a SCRIPT!  Look at goldcoders dot com.  It's automated BS.  Do we really need to analyse this?

Unfortunately you are wrong! Its not the 'famous' goldcoders script, its a custom one.

[dhsc19]

You know, I wonder if btc-arbs started out as a legit arbitrage but their wire transfers got blocked and delayed so they made up bullshit to cover for it. I've read that often scams start off legit, but then there are problems and they go rogue.

No, they were never legit. The results they claimed were way too high to be realistic arbitrage-results for the simple reason that during the arbitrage-process, you need to have the vast majority of funds as fiat (since that transfers so slowly) and on a given day most of your funds will be in transit from one place to the other. Every day, only a small fraction of the total funds is used for actual trading, yet the profits are spread over the entire balance.

In addition, it is extremely likely that they collected far more in BTC deposits than in USD, which means that if they would actually do arbitrage they either had almost all the BTC sitting idle or they had to sell deposited BTC for USD, in which case the results should have strongly reflected the BTC/USD exchange rate fluctuations. After the "acquisition", USD deposits aren't even possible anymore.

Then there's the additional bullshit about having an office in Geneva with 10 employees and such.

It's a decent coverstory. I've certainly seen Ponzis with a weaker coverstory, but the signs were obvious from the start and I've pointed them out repeatedly in this thread, with my first post already on page 1.

I believe the idea was to actually do arbitrage, they did pay for drawn pictures of both "profits" and "loss's", but I believe that was on paper before they started. Probably not far into the planning stages did they realize they couldn't give out the increase they were thinking of and by then too much money had been spent on the site and pictures and what not..... by the time they opened it was just a scam and stayed that way.

PEOPLE!!  It's a SCRIPT!  Look at goldcoders dot com.  It's automated BS.  Do we really need to analyse this?

Unfortunately you are wrong! Its not the 'famous' goldcoders script, its a custom one.

Does the fact that it is a custom script make it any less of a typical HYIP operation?  It's a script!  It's still automated BS no matter how you look at it.  It's cool.  I'm just being a cynic.  It's just funny that people are getting all analytic about trying to legitimize the inconsistencies.

[FreeJack2k2]

Ugh...this slow trickle of Bitcoin out of my legacy account is killin' me...it's like watching grass grow. Maybe they're hoping I'll just get bored and go away? lol...