btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[yonce]

The fact that I haven't posted any information yet here in public that I have so far collected is because I feel if I do post it here now, the admin will use it as an excuse to stop his refund program.

It won't necessarily just be that he uses it as an excuse. There are all kinds of people out there who are owed money and he's already received threats, as has his family. To use the information we have means a criminal investigation, prosecution and jail time...and that doesn't include restitution. Look at what has happened to all of the people who lost money in Mt. Gox - they have a ton of coin left, yet that coin is frozen and will be for the foreseeable future, due to the investigation, bankruptcy, etc...

At the moment, he is paying people back...I don't know how great his means are for paying it back, but apparently not real great considering the current pace. So we're going to be waiting...but in the end, waiting a while is better than not having any chance of getting paid back at all.

I pm'd him (btc-arbs) back, so I'll see what he tells me in his response. I really could care less about anything other than seeing people get their coins back.

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[causis]

As a result of being active and participating in the sleuthing that took place, I was here when the admin appeared to start taking names and amounts. I was probably the second post after his and one of the first 5-6 people to contact him. Because I have been here from the beginning, I have been PM'd a ton of information, in the hopes that I would organize something. It's my opinion that letting him make restitution is a better option at the moment...that may change but until it does, I am content to stay the course. So I'm sorry if you found out late and are going to have to wait longer than others who contributed information to the thread and investigation...but in my view, your primary interest is in changing the repayment scheme to best serve you, in the guise of creating "fairness" where none can exist. it is what it is and you have this thread, and the regular posters in it, to thank for even having the possibility of being repaid. One or two in particular who I won't name. So just be thankful that repayment is happening at all, because if not for these guys who are being paid first, nobody would be getting a dime back, in all likelihood.

I thank the ones that gathered information to reach Ron/Adam. I was proposing a repayment scheme in which everybody would get something relatively fast. You think you have more priority because you contributed to find this guy. I don't want to argue about this, but like you have your 20/40 days deadline, I'd like at least a priority list or something like that to know approx. when will we get the refunds.
Let's be clear: I don't want to discuss with you, I just want BTC-Arbs to give some more information, and I think everyone wants that.

[hongo]

I would say that according to the 1% average he was doing per day if he is making 0.65 BTC a day, he has only 65BTC. He owes 444.48 BTC.
So according to my calculations he will be able to repay all back in 194 days. x=log(444.48/65)/log(1.01)
So sit down and wait till January 2015. Not that bad.

Based on the refund rate (on average 0,65 BTC / day) and the amounts we were receiving on the btc-arbs platform during march and beginning of april, I would bet our friend will say he's playing with around less than 100 btc...  looooong way to recover.

[FreeJack2k2]

I thank the ones that gathered information to reach Ron/Adam. I was proposing a repayment scheme in which everybody would get something relatively fast. You think you have more priority because you contributed to find this guy. I don't want to argue about this, but like you have your 20/40 days deadline, I'd like at least a priority list or something like that to know approx. when will we get the refunds.
Let's be clear: I don't want to discuss with you, I just want BTC-Arbs to give some more information, and I think everyone wants that.

I agree, I think a priority list is something he should definitely post and would be helpful in letting people know A) he's aware of what they are owed and B) where they are in the queue. Whether he'll do that, I don't know...but it has been suggested. Right now, we have our spreadsheet and we can get a lot of information by tracking the payments there.

I would say that according to the 1% average he was doing per day if he is making 0.65 BTC a day, he has only 65BTC. He owes 444.48 BTC.
So according to my calculations he will be able to repay all back in 194 days. x=log(444.48/65)/log(1.01)
So sit down and wait till January 2015. Not that bad.

Although he also claims to have a LOT of requests that were sent via e-mail, outside of the forums (and presumably not represented by the spreadsheet). So it's difficult to say with any certainty.

[gise87]

I would say that according to the 1% average he was doing per day if he is making 0.65 BTC a day, he has only 65BTC. He owes 444.48 BTC.
So according to my calculations he will be able to repay all back in 194 days. x=log(444.48/65)/log(1.01)
So sit down and wait till January 2015. Not that bad.

Based on the refund rate (on average 0,65 BTC / day) and the amounts we were receiving on the btc-arbs platform during march and beginning of april, I would bet our friend will say he's playing with around less than 100 btc...  looooong way to recover.

If he has 65 BTC, he will need to gather 379 for the people currently listed (444-65=379)

With 0,65BTC per day, he will need 583 days to gather the 379BTC.
583 days = 1,59 years

The time to refund everyone can decrease dramatically depending on how many coins he actually has.

If he has:
100BTC = 1,44 yrs
200BTC = 1,02 yrs
300BTC = 0,6 yrs

But, without real figures we can only guess how long it will take

[indublinca]

I can't log into the site - how are you getting in touch with the admin to send refund details? If there is an email address, could you please PM or post? I have added my details to the shared google doc.

Thanks!

[btclemming]

Although he also claims to have a LOT of requests that were sent via e-mail, outside of the forums (and presumably not represented by the spreadsheet). So it's difficult to say with any certainty.

I think he wrote that emails and PM numbers *included* duplicates.

Currently pending

221 pending refund emails  (including duplicates/spam)
98 pending refund PMs   (including duplicates)

IMHO, After nearly 3 weeks, and with people touched where it hurts (money), I would say, that we have around 7-80% of the victims on the spreadsheet... It would make sense, statistically.
And it would confirm what BTC-ARBS saying that

... The total value of ALL BTC-Arbs accounts is more or less 500 Bitcoins. ...There are only 7 users with balances over 20 Bitcoins. ...

[FreeJack2k2]

IMHO, After nearly 3 weeks, and with people touched where it hurts (money), I would say, that we have around 7-80% of the victims on the spreadsheet... It would make sense, statistically.
And it would confirm what BTC-ARBS saying that

... The total value of ALL BTC-Arbs accounts is more or less 500 Bitcoins. ...There are only 7 users with balances over 20 Bitcoins. ...

True, and given that I assume a couple of the sub-20 BTC people on the spreadsheet WERE above 20 before refunds from the legacy balance (as I was originally 27), we probably have six of those seven already represented in the spreadsheet.

[hongo]

If he pays what he gets through daily profit with 65 BTC it will take that long as you said gise87 but if he keeps the profit and reinvests it every day he will be able to pay all back in 6 months. The best thing he can do is reopen a secure btc-arbs page accept new investments and hold the legacy funds for 6 months at most and he will be able to pay everyone back in less that 6 months. I would do that. Is the fastest way to fix this problem. I offered BTC-Arbs my collaboration with some ideas but he never replied. He could get together with other people doing efficient arbitrage and with people with experience doing secure web pages and make that happen.  I am not sure which are the real intentions behind all these.

If he has 65 BTC, he will need to gather 379 for the people currently listed (444-65=379)

With 0,65BTC per day, he will need 583 days to gather the 379BTC.
583 days = 1,59 years

The time to refund everyone can decrease dramatically depending on how many coins he actually has.

If he has:
100BTC = 1,44 yrs
200BTC = 1,02 yrs
300BTC = 0,6 yrs

But, without real figures we can only guess how long it will take

[deathdefyer2002]

BTC-ARBS

Might I propose yet again a possible solution. 

1) Make a copy of our current GDocs Sheet
2) Make it READ/ONLY
3) Add the requested information here.

You have to confirm all of the accounts anyways - why not make it public so people have some idea whats happening.  A priority payment list isn't a bad idea either.  This way people will know what to expect and when.

I personally like the idea of paying everyone a small amount first, before the 2nd payment.  I'd say a percentage is better then a set number.   1% of 500 coins is 5 coins (Very doable I think).  This way larger inverters still maintain a fair amount paid back while small investors still see something as well.



 

[dhsc19]

I really doubt this BTC-Arbs guy picked up a second job cleaning toilets or flipping burgers so that he can LEGITIMATELY pay everyone back.  The reality is, he's probably set up another scam site and using that to pay you guys off.  So, in the end, you will have a new set of victims that those here, who have been "fighting for justice", will gladly turn their backs on when they get paid in full.  "No our problem anymore".  When I think about all this, I really don't know who is scummier.

[gise87]

I really doubt this BTC-Arbs guy picked up a second job cleaning toilets or flipping burgers so that he can LEGITIMATELY pay everyone back.  The reality is, he's probably set up another scam site and using that to pay you guys off.  So, in the end, you will have a new set of victims that those here, who have been "fighting for justice", will gladly turn their backs on when they get paid in full.  "No our problem anymore".  When I think about all this, I really don't know who is scummier.

Why would any scammer ever set up another scam to pay back users from the first scam instead of running off with the money from both the scams?
Don't get me wrong, we have been lied to over and over again but I do truly believe he is indeed arb trading and paying us back with the profits made.

[dhsc19]

I really doubt this BTC-Arbs guy picked up a second job cleaning toilets or flipping burgers so that he can LEGITIMATELY pay everyone back.  The reality is, he's probably set up another scam site and using that to pay you guys off.  So, in the end, you will have a new set of victims that those here, who have been "fighting for justice", will gladly turn their backs on when they get paid in full.  "No our problem anymore".  When I think about all this, I really don't know who is scummier.

Why would any scammer ever set up another scam to pay back users from the first scam instead of running off with the money from both the scams?
I truly believe he is indeed arb trading and paying us back with the profits made.

If he already had enough money to actually do arb trading and make a substantial profit, he would have already had enough to pay everyone off to begin with.  You need large sums of money for arb trading.  He tried to run off on this one, but his "identity" got caught.  But he could certainly be operating under a new identity somewhere else.

[gise87]

could be, but without any proof it's just pure speculation.

I think we might indeed see the end of the list, today, only 3 new users signed up to the list.

[FuzwaldQO]

Hey everyone, first time posting here.

I had thought my btc in BTC-Arbs was gone and buried up till yesterday when I stumbled upon this thread. So forgive my late entry to the list. I have added my details to the spreadsheet, and sent my transaction details to BTC-Arbs via PM here and via email.

I'm not going to jump in and suggest anything as you all seem to be working stuff out by yourself. I do agree though that having a payment schedule would be a good way for him to stop some of the badgering he is receiving. I also agree that spamming any details that people have on him here would be a bad idea. Threats on him or his family are not cool at all, and I think leaking his details out would only make things worse. IF the repayments stop, then the details can be given to the authorities.

I'm just happy that there is a chance I might be able to get my 2.8btc back, let alone the 3.5 that I had with interest.

Cheers,

FuzwaldQO.

[dyask]

I can't log into the site - how are you getting in touch with the admin to send refund details? If there is an email address, could you please PM or post? I have added my details to the shared google doc.

Thanks!

Look back at the first post by BTC-ARBS, all the information is there.

[FreeJack2k2]

In looking at the spreadsheet as things develop, the pattern of repayment is pretty obvious. People with small amounts owed (less than half a Bitcoin) are being refunded while those with higher amounts (which are harder to pay off) must wait a while.

There's a concept in debt repayment that's promoted by Dave Ramsey called the "Debt Snowball" wherein you attack your smallest debts first, which then gives you an increasing amount of money with which to repay larger debts faster. Seems like the admin is largely following that philosophy and so once the little guys are repaid, we should start to see some acceleration into the mid-pack repayments. I'm glad gise87 decided to maintain this for us, very useful.

New page, new spreadsheet link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lSUi0_1bqe0sv5XI4EvXWPcWI7fwnJbFQY-kMsYxp10/edit?pli=1#gid=1324696940

[lesnod11]

In looking at the spreadsheet as things develop, the pattern of repayment is pretty obvious. People with small amounts owed (less than half a Bitcoin) are being refunded while those with higher amounts (which are harder to pay off) must wait a while.

There's a concept in debt repayment that's promoted by Dave Ramsey called the "Debt Snowball" wherein you attack your smallest debts first, which then gives you an increasing amount of money with which to repay larger debts faster. Seems like the admin is largely following that philosophy and so once the little guys are repaid, we should start to see some acceleration into the mid-pack repayments. I'm glad gise87 decided to maintain this for us, very useful.

New page, new spreadsheet link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lSUi0_1bqe0sv5XI4EvXWPcWI7fwnJbFQY-kMsYxp10/edit?pli=1#gid=1324696940

In my opinion that's still an assumption, even the concept of 'who wrote first' has been a tough pattern to follow, not only do we not know the order but it hasn't been held too very well (as best I can tell).  If the concept of paying small investors off first works best, then let that be stated and stick to it, at least we can all follow that.

[armin22]

Id like to apply for a repayment and for the spreadsheet.

Date of PM sent :

ORIGINAL :  June 05, 2014, 05:01:55 PM

NEW ONE ( WITH UPDATED WALLET ADDY) : June 18, 2014, 02:07:17 AM


Btc owed : 0.1

Thanks

[indublinca]

Thank you so much. PM sent and email sent. I have added my details to the shared Google doc as well. Here's hoping that the initial amount is refunded!