btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[chris45215]

Whereas initially, he was making payments to people daily...that seems to have changed significantly over the past week or so and now we aren't seeing payment daily, but every couple of days.

My suspicion level is growing with every passing day.

Based on the limited information available, I believe Btc-Arb's strategy has failed to return profits over most of the last week. Additionally, his system is probably not hedged, so he loses money when the bitcoin price goes down (but this reduces his debt more, as the debt is measured in terms of bitcoin).

I emailed him offering to exchange information shortly after his original post, but will email him again and offer to help more directly.


I can temporarily open my system and allow him to copy my investments manually. I am currently looking at an unusually high profit around $7 per bitcoin today, so he would have much higher yields.

[BTC-Arbs]

My system is not perfect and has flaws but it is being used to successfully refund investors in full. The next batch of refunds will be sent in less than 24 hours.

[MrMateria]

still waiting on my refund...

BTC ARBS USERNAME: MRMATERIA
AMOUNT DEPOSITED: 0.7874 BTC
ADDRESS: 1P6kDQZutzDJaGW3UZ3Qz9CELEbR5btxz8

[airwalker2662]

My system is not perfect and has flaws but it is being used to successfully refund investors in full. The next batch of refunds will be sent in less than 24 hours.

If your system were perfect you would not be here giving the 1% the 1% of your funds you recover. I am sick of this. Find a way to pay us all back fully in an organized, agreed upon manner. Another day I see you've given back .3 BTC between 3 people just upsets me further. BTW... What is with the whole GCA Ron James BS story? Suddenly all is forgiven if you pay pennies to the dollars submitted?

[dyask]

My system is not perfect and has flaws but it is being used to successfully refund investors in full. The next batch of refunds will be sent in less than 24 hours.

If your system were perfect you would not be here giving the 1% the 1% of your funds you recover. I am sick of this. Find a way to pay us all back fully in an organized, agreed upon manner. Another day I see you've given back .3 BTC between 3 people just upsets me further. BTW... What is with the whole GCA Ron James BS story? Suddenly all is forgiven if you pay pennies to the dollars submitted?

He is trying to refund deposits, which is more that we could have expected through something like a class action suit.   We should give him the breathing room to make the refunds. 

[gise87]

Adjusted the spreadsheet, did some fixes and configured all the counters on top of the screen, otherwise we won't be able to sort the sheet. If you want any modifications, please let me know.

Some poeple added their deposit blockchain url in the blockchaing url tab on the spreadsheet, I've deleted those entries

[brozinic]

Still waiting... was on the list with about the 10 first.... what is happening?

[gise87]

Still waiting... was on the list with about the 10 first.... what is happening?

Hi Brozinic, the list was rearranged to show the top deposits on top, you can find your entry if you look up your btc amount. The dates of when you sent your messages is unchanged and the btc-arbs admin is not using our list to repay, so there is no benefit on being on top of the list.

I used to be #13 on the list, now I am at #112, you are now at #58



Some figures/stats:
At this moment, we have 137 users listed. 18 have been fully refunded (14% of the users listed), 5 users (3%) have received partial payment and 114 users have not received anything yet (83%). Including the partial payments, 17% of the users have received payment.

We now have ฿450 listed, ฿11 has been refunded, these are almost 50/50 partial and full refunds (฿5,15 vs ฿5,98). In total, 2,47% has been refunded.

I think that users with balances below ฿1 are considered as small accounts since they all have been refunded in full when they receive payment, it will take the admin ฿14,40 to fully refund ALL accounts with sub-1BTC balances, currently listed. With this, he can completely refund another 32 users/accounts.

If we keep using the 50/50 ratio and we look at the middle and large accounts, with another ฿14, he could either:
- Pay off the smallest 'middle'-accounts completely, refunding another 14 users.
- Partially pay the middle/large accounts an equal amount (for instance ฿0,5) at which he can partially pay another 28 users.


So with 28,4 BTC, the admin could potentially pay out either:
1: 46 full refunds (33% of all the users listed)
2: 32 full refunds (23%) + 28 partial (20%)
3: 56 partial (0,5 each) (40%)

With the first option, he will then have paid off 64 users in total, which is 47% of the list. I think that is something the admin would like since he then has that less people complaining and sending messages which will bring some clarity. Ofcourse he still would have a long way to go since he then would've paid off BTC39,5 which is 8% of the total amount of bitcoin



Disclaimer:
These are just some figures/calculations I made, there is no information available on who will receive payment first or an fair system in place where we all will get equal payment. If that was the case, we would all have received 2,47% of our deposited amount back

[mies_reed]

I also got deleted from the list for the second time -_-  

edit: sorry I moved up with two accounts, my fault

[christophorus]

Still waiting... was on the list with about the 10 first.... what is happening?

Hi Brozinic, the list was rearranged to show the top deposits on top, you can find your entry if you look up your btc amount. The dates of when you sent your messages is unchanged and the btc-arbs admin is not using our list to repay, so there is no benefit on being on top of the list.

I used to be #13 on the list, now I am at #112, you are now at #58



Some figures/stats:
At this moment, we have 137 users listed. 18 have been fully refunded (14% of the users listed), 5 users (3%) have received partial payment and 114 users have not received anything yet (83%). Including the partial payments, 17% of the users have received payment.

We now have ฿450 listed, ฿11 has been refunded, these are almost 50/50 partial and full refunds (฿5,15 vs ฿5,98). In total, 2,47% has been refunded.

I think that users with balances below ฿1 are considered as small accounts since they all have been refunded in full when they receive payment, it will take the admin ฿14,40 to fully refund ALL accounts with sub-1BTC balances, currently listed. With this, he can completely refund another 32 users/accounts.

If we keep using the 50/50 ratio and we look at the middle and large accounts, with another ฿14, he could either:
- Pay off the smallest 'middle'-accounts completely, refunding another 14 users.
- Partially pay the middle/large accounts an equal amount (for instance ฿0,5) at which he can partially pay another 28 users.


So with 28,4 BTC, the admin could potentially pay out either:
1: 46 full refunds (33% of all the users listed)
2: 32 full refunds (23%) + 28 partial (20%)
3: 56 partial (0,5 each) (40%)

With the first option, he will then have paid off 64 users in total, which is 47% of the list. I think that is something the admin would like since he then has that less people complaining and sending messages which will bring some clarity. Ofcourse he still would have a long way to go since he then would've paid off BTC39,5 which is 8% of the total amount of bitcoin



Disclaimer:
These are just some figures/calculations I made, there is no information available on who will receive payment first or an fair system in place where we all will get equal payment. If that was the case, we would all have received 2,47% of our deposited amount back

That is, by far, one of the most useful posts in this entire thread. I hope BTC-Arbs sees it as I think it could really help them make some decisions. Personally, I've go for option 1. Reduce the number of people contacting you and your job is easier from an admin point of view and increases plausibility of attempts to truly pay people back.

[btclemming]

Just added 1 formula to the spreadsheet : expected date of full refund date...
it is based on the current refunds made since 30th of May.

[gise87]

Thanks!!

I was just thinking about the full refund date (where all the users will be paid off) and I think it could be sooner. We don't know the "gap" he needs to fill using arb trading.

If for instance: He owes us all 600 BTC, 100 BTC were stolen and he still has 500BTC. He then has to gather 100 BTC.
The BTC-Arbs admin is now using the profits (11BTC till date) to pay off people but when he has gathered enough to cover the gap, he can pay-out the rest in one final batch.

I surely hope we all will receive our bitcoins in a timely matter. You are one of the top investors btclemming and that sure is a fair amount of money..

[btclemming]

Thanks!!

I was just thinking about the full refund date (where all the users will be paid off) and I think it could be sooner. We don't know the "gap" he needs to fill using arb trading.

If for instance: He owes us all 600 BTC, 100 BTC were stolen and he still has 500BTC. He then has to gather 100 BTC.
The BTC-Arbs admin is now using the profits (11BTC till date) to pay off people but when he has gathered enough to cover the gap, he can pay-out the rest in one final batch.

I surely hope we all will receive our bitcoins in a timely matter. You are one of the top investors btclemming and that sure is a fair amount of money..

Based on the refund rate (on average 0,65 BTC / day) and the amounts we were receiving on the btc-arbs platform during march and beginning of april, I would bet our friend will say he's playing with around less than 100 btc...  looooong way to recover.

[ral_miramar]

My system is not perfect and has flaws but it is being used to successfully refund investors in full. The next batch of refunds will be sent in less than 24 hours.

Continue giving face is very important, do so ... hopefully with this low, take a lot of coins ... and with that you will make it easier to pay people ... to me, yet not touched me, hope to be in the next, you post ... Thanks

[Hoof-arted]

My system is not perfect and has flaws but it is being used to successfully refund investors in full. The next batch of refunds will be sent in less than 24 hours.

Continue giving face is very important, do so ... hopefully with this low, take a lot of coins ... and with that you will make it easier to pay people ... to me, yet not touched me, hope to be in the next, you post ... Thanks

Nobody wants to touch you. You got a hand so get busy.

Everybody is always 1st on the list, don't expect to get paid anytime soon though. Am I waiting? Yea, not holding my breath though.

[reago6]

I'm just glad somethings happening, no matter what the circumstances. May take forever, but would be great if I get repaid in a year and BTC goes up a ton in price. Same BTC, more money.

[yonce]

If anyone has any information on the admin please feel free to PM me. Also don't post that you do in the thread, I can help you with a strategy on getting funds back away from the public eyes in the thread.

[simpic]

Hello,
i just find out this topic and i would like to know more about the current situation about refund.
Can you keep me update?

I sent a PM to admin on this forum... was the right way to look forward for a refund?

[Titan33]

Has he mentioned how many BTC he actually has left over which are being used for arbitrage currently? As he slowly pays down some of these "lucky"* investors, he will reach a point where his trading balance covers all outstanding liabilities at which time that should be paid out in bulk rather than continued arbitrage profits. I think everybody would agree that he does not deserve to have an proceeds left over for himself at the end after the multiple lies of "Ron James" and subsequently vanishing altogether.

*I say lucky investors only because his payout patterns is by and large totally random even with that methodology he posted earlier.

Also, for FreeJack, just wondering how many days your in after your initial "20-40 days" payback period promise.

I haven't seen a penny yet.

[FreeJack2k2]

Also, for FreeJack, just wondering how many days your in after your initial "20-40 days" payback period promise.

I haven't seen a penny yet.

It's been 11 days since I received my last payment (on the 5th) and we're about 17 days into the 20-40 day agreement. I've been assured that I'll be getting one today...how much that will amount to remains to be seen. The number of "mouths" he has to feed has probably increased tenfold since I sent him my first PM and so we'll see how it goes for the remaining 23 days or so.