btc-arbs.com - Update: dead HYIP, Refund progress: BTC-arbs still doing refunds

[dyask]

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.

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[sunny1]

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.

That is not correct. With less capital, less liquidity to trade is available.

[dyask]

Personally, I'm not sure how this will play out as I fully expect a run on the bank now.   The best case is we probably have lower gains for awhile.

Maybe even better ... If arb opportunitys are limited, the impact on a smaller budget would be bigger. If you have 100K to share your profit, or you have 50K to share almost the same profit ...
Anyway, I'm having some on both, some on other HYIP, as long as most survive i win ...

There isn't anything wrong with spreading your risks.  I think one HYIP is enough for me, but I have 3 other things going in too.  (some cloud mining, PTS/AGS and also renting a mining rig.)   I don't know what is going to happen here, but I do have some morbid interest too along with my small investment.

That is not correct. With less capital, less liquidity to trade is available.

Less liquidity, but also smaller trades that don't impact the market as much.   Within reasonable limits it is probably a wash.

[Vilepickle]

In my experience withdrawing anything 5BTC and under from btc-arbs is very quick.  Adam has said in tickets that any amount over that needs to be approved by their technical team and that's why it takes longer.

[zimmah]

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that.  The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work.  I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb.  I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions.  Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation.  If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.  


For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen.  Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings.  Maybe truncation is taking place.  I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages.  My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage.  This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded.  We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php.  I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge.  Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise:  https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers

compounded interest really adds up quickly, and the difference between even 1.4% and 1.5% are extreme. But still, i will not worry, even 0,1% interest is better then 0%.

By the way, the average interest so far is about 1.4% I have calculated that if they keep compounding interest at the same rate (1.4% per day average) that an initial investment of just 0.3 BTC would become over 40 BTC in a year. This is really insane. (also, i did not truncate like they do).

Of course at some point it will not be possible to scale up though, because of the limits of arbitrage. The more you do arbitrage the smaller the spread will be, and the smaller the spread, the smaller the profit. So i doubt they'll keep this percentage up.

Still, it's a nice gambit.

[dyask]

Ok, so I have been working with the information the site provides to try to duplicate my actual results using the numbers the web site provides.
It is not possible to do that.  The daily percentages being reported are ever so slightly skewed upwards.

The data we are being given is being skewed in such a way that it looks good if you calculate the last couple of days but when you try to work a whole month you will always come up with a *much* bigger projected net than you will actually receive.

I am open to being corrected on this (actually would happily be corrected) but the numbers just don't work.  I've had BTC invested since 2 Feb.  I've pulled all the percentages into a spread sheet and all the transactions.  Considering deposits and earnings and using the following computation.  If the percentages were correct I would have about 1.8 to 2 times as much BTC in the account(s) than I actually do.  


For each day:
       # yesterday's balance + (yesterday's balance * interest)
       # example:
              balance = 1.234
              interest = 0.023
              new balance = (1.234 +( 1.234 * 0.023)) = 1.262382
              if there are new deposits add into new balance here.
Next day

When I use that process I get projected earnings far in excess (about double) of what I have actually seen.  Unfortunately since interest is compounded the projection gets farther and farther from true earnings over time.

The percentages reported are not the actual earnings.  Maybe truncation is taking place.  I think the programmer is making as much from my BTC as I am from the looks of it, or he is inflating the percentages.  My guess is the programmer is rounding down (truncating) when he computes my new balance and rounding up (google roundup function) when he reports daily percentage.  This is the logical way to run the site; however, the net for the site is much larger depending which decimal place is rounded.  We are not being given that information when we ask for it.

We do not have a clear enough picture of what we are paying for the service.

I will be moving 2/5 of my arbitrage investment to https://bitcoin-trader.biz/results.php.  I'm putting the last 1/5 back up on coinbase as a hedge.  Please set me as a referrer if you decide likewise:  https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=micers

compounded interest really adds up quickly, and the difference between even 1.4% and 1.5% are extreme. But still, i will not worry, even 0,1% interest is better then 0%.

By the way, the average interest so far is about 1.4% I have calculated that if they keep compounding interest at the same rate (1.4% per day average) that an initial investment of just 0.3 BTC would become over 40 BTC in a year. This is really insane. (also, i did not truncate like they do).

Of course at some point it will not be possible to scale up though, because of the limits of arbitrage. The more you do arbitrage the smaller the spread will be, and the smaller the spread, the smaller the profit. So i doubt they'll keep this percentage up.

Still, it's a nice gambit.

If everyone stayed invested the returns would go down over a year.   While you need a lot of assets for arbitrage trading, there is a limit which is basically how much market depth there is.   At some point the trades get to big and move the markets too much, the result is lower gains.   

[miahugo]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

[crazyivan]

Yup, I made a small test withdrawal, everything was fine.

[btclemming]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.

[sunny1]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.

Don't worry, they are just waiting for some new deposits to come in and then you will get paid.

[howzar]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

last withdrawal of 1.4 BTC the day before it went offline (completed 16/04/2014 15:46).
a 3.6 btc withdrawal waiting since then (initiated 16/04/2014 17:08 - btc-arbs time), still pending.

Don't worry, they are just waiting for some new deposits to come in and then you will get paid.

Good one hahaha

[Avalaxy]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

[miahugo]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

How much did you withdraw? I withdraw 2.5 BTC but still on pending over 48 hours already, sigh.

[Avalaxy]

How much did you withdraw? I withdraw 2.5 BTC but still on pending over 48 hours already, sigh.

0.6 Bitcoin.

[alabamafan1]

Let the slow pays begin! 5+ BTC total in withdraws waiting for over 2 days. Sign that btc-arbs is finally going down haha.

[zimmah]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

[Avalaxy]

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

Fair points. However, you can reinvest your earned dollars into new shares all the time

[sunny1]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

Everything has pros and cons. I am trading by myself during weekends and I can tell you its IMPOSIBLE to trade with any volume, since there is no depth. So btc-arbs might have found some mircacles to find large scale [volume] arbitrage opportunities on weekends - if they are not a HYIP. The fact that Bitcoin Trader is not trading on weekends is showing me that they are at least to be considered more serious.

After all 20+% a month is very fine for me - if they trade on weekends or not.

[Bestinvest]

Just wonder anyone has successed withdrawal after the site came back on?

Yes, after it came back I withdrew everything. Received it within a few hours.

I have now moved the monies to bitcointrader which seems more reliable. If you would like to try it you can use this link to help a bro out: https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Avalaxy

i don't really like bitcoin-trader nearly as much though because they only work 5 days a week, do not compound interest, do not allow to withdraw for 120 days and most importantly: your investment is in dollars. So you will not profit when the bitcoin price increases.

... You will also not lose if the price fall... 

https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref=Duhsasekirom

[zimmah]

they do seem to update their daily results around 11PM in Central European time (which is the time in switzerland)