Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +98424 units

[buwaytress]

Liverpool kept me on edge although they eventually won. No use though, as our earlier leg folded when Portsmouth scored 2 goals as we predicted, but so did the Black Cats. It was 1-1 at FT anyway, which would have been the result counted on our bet.

I don't have much interest in the other games today for some reason, but let's see what our old boy Rafa can pull off today at Arsenal.

No comparisons, as I can't find a DNB, so no odds and units advantage.

100 units Draw No Bet on Newcastle for an improbable victory away at Arsenal @6.46.

Running advantage after 256 bets: +6,234.37 (+- 0 units)

Running units after 255 bets (59W|196L): +3,265.65 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Ah well, well done to Arsenal. Collecting the same points they had last season with 7 games to spare, no fans booing their own team for once, and Aaron Ramsey scoring the opener. RIP our Newcastle bet.

It's a huge night for United but I'm counting on Wolves to grab another victory here. They've lost me so many bets this season but I'm still itching for a Mexican brace, especially after a poor show form United on the weekend. Barca and Juventus away wins look like good value, Juve were insipid but surely they want to bag the league asap to focus on CL!

Game 1: Wolverhampton Wanderers-Manchester United. Wolves WIN @4.05. BCR odds: 4.01
Game 2: Villarreal-FC Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.68. BCR odds: 1.66
Game 3: Cagliari-Juventus. Juve WIN @1.83. BCR odds: 1.81
100 units parlay at Betcoin @12.4513. BCR parlay: 12.0484

Odds advantage: 3.34%
Units advantage: 40.29

Running advantage after 257 bets: +6,274.66 (+ 40.29 units)

Running units after 256 bets (59W|197L): +3,165.65 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

The folly of parlays, eh? The most expected to win did not, Barca let a 2-goal lead slip, but then gave away 4 goals. They did score 2 more to level things up via who else but Messi and Suarez, but a draw wasn't what we wanted. Waste of a Wolves win and Juventus goal from wunderkid Moise Kean. Would have given us over 7/1 too if I wasn't so ambitious. But hey, odds were all good value, weren't they?

We stay away from poor value odds in EPL (unless an underdog bet tempts me later) and take a slice of La Liga with Seria A.

Game 1: Valencia-Real Madrid. Real WIN @2.27. Betcoin: 2.23
Game 2: Roma-Fiorentina. Roma WIN @2.04. Betcoin: 2.04
Game 3: Genoa-Inter Milan. Inter WIN @2.06. Betcoin: 2.03
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @9.5394. Betcoin parlay: 9.2348

Odds advantage: 3.3%
Units advantage: 30.46

Running advantage after 258 bets: +6,305.12 (+30.46 units)

Running units after 257 bets (59W|198L): +3,065.65 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I'm not going to commentate on yesterday's results. Suffice to say, Real Madrid RIP.

A simple two legged parlay for teams with pretty good home recent run of home records in La Liga. Over 2.5 also looks interesting but I'm sensing at this late stage in season, probably see a few teams tiring.

Game 1: Leganes-Real Valladolid. Leganes WIN @2.16. BCR odds: 2.13
Game 2: Real Sociedad-Real Betis. Sociedad WIN @2.33. BCR odds: 2.31
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.0328. BCR parlay: 4.9203

Odds advantage: 2.29%
Units advantage: 11.25

Running advantage after 259 bets: +6,316.37 (+11.25 units)

Running units after 258 bets (59W|199L): +2,965.65 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Winning goals in the 92nd and 84th minute for Leganes and Real Sociedad respectively. Saw that all the home games in the big leagues were won, but since they were all at odds of 1.3 and below, I wasn't interested. Happy we booked something to improve our terrible run in the past 10 days.

Who else but Liverpool to open tonight's betting? I expect they'll have another difficult away game, so that's good for us in terms of odds. The French Ligue features Marseille who have had a good run of form so they should win away at Bordeaux, who've been terrible ever since their botched performance at Europa. We parlay that against an underdog away victory for Freiburg at Mainz in the Bundesliga, because it'll be double winner: stretch the gap between their closest rivals to 5 points, and get to within 7 points of a Europa berth. With 9 games to go, it's still a distinct possibility.

Game 1: Bordeaux-Olympique Marseille. Marseille WIN @2.17. BCR odds: 2.14
Game 2: Southampton-Liverpool. Liver WIN @1.43. BCR odds: 1.40
Game 3: Mainz 05-Freiburg. Freiburg WIN @3.28. BCR odds: 3.30
100 units parlay at Betcoin @10.1781. BCR odds: 9.8868

Odds advantage: 2.95%
Units advantage: 29.13

Running advantage after 260 bets: +6,345.5 (+29.13 units)

Running units after 259 bets (60W|199L): +3,368.93 (+403.28 units)

[buwaytress]

Our German and French selections lost. Bookies backed the home teams so they were on the ball and I wasn't. Liverpool won, all that matters.

Newcastle couldn't get unstuck the last game they played, Rondon seemed off form but they should come back with a vengeance at home today, and maybe Jonjo could make a sub impact. Palace will be stinging from their loss to Spurs though and the odds reflect that. Bournemouth Burnley are also mixed bags. There's arguably more motivation for Burnley to win but their away form is shit.

Game 1: Bournemouth-Burnley. Bournemouth WIN @2.08. BCR odds: 2.06
Game 2: Newcastle United-Crystal Palace. Newcastle WIN @2.57. BCR odds 2.49
100 units parlay at Betcoin @5.3456. BCR parlay: 5.1294

Odds advantage: 4.21%
Units advantage: 21.62

Running advantage after 261 bets: +6,367.12 (+21.62 units)

Running units after 260 bets (60W|200L): +3,268.93 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

I missed the scent of an underdog win with Burnley smashing 3 past Bournemouth. What a way for them to put this bad season behind them. They looked like old Burnley, good enough to beat the drop? Almost certainly.

Wolves want to win the FA Cup and they have the best chance of defeating the City steamroller, so they should nick this off Watford. Arsenal play away at Everton and they desperately need to win against the Toffees who have nothing to play for in all seriousness.

Game 1: Everton vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @2.26. Betcoin odds: 2.25
Game 2: Watford vs Wolverhampton Wanderers. Wolves WIN @2.54. Betcoin odds:2.44
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.7404. Betcoin parlay: 5.49

Odds advantage: 4.56%
Units advantage: 25.04

Hedging the bets against a flimsy Arsenal, we'll take on Everton against a Sevilla away win:
Game 1: Everton vs Arsenal. Everton WIN @3.19. BCR odds: 3.17
Gmae 2: Real Valladolid vs Sevilla. Sevilla WIN @2.04. BCR odds: 2.02
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.5076. BCR parlay: 6.4034

Odds advantage: 1.63%
Units advantage: 10.42

Total units advantage: 35.46

Running advantage after 263 bets: +6,402.58 (+35.46 units)

Running units after 261 bets (60W|201L): +3,168.93 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

So our hedge won, but abject, abject performance from the bleeding Gunners. Only 1 other team in the top 4 leagues in England has conceded on every away game. You got 4 more matches on the road, Arsenal. It's sad but I don't think they'll make it in Top 4.

We go for single underdog games today. Chelsea should win this against the Hammers, and I actually disagreed with this tip from Cloudbet but with Hazard looking unsettled, Sarri getting even more negative than usual (is that possible?) and cracks widening, and the odds jumping for West Ham to over 11/1, I thought why the hell not?

100 units at Fairlay for West Ham to WIN at Chelsea @11.375. BCR odds: 10.12
Odds advantage: 13.23%
Units advantage: 124.5

And then women's international friendlies, plenty of underdogs, lots of great odds:
100 units on Scotland to WIN vs Brazil @8.28
100 units on Denmark to WIN vs France @10.09.

No odds comparison so no odds advantage

Running advantage after 266 bets: +6,527.08 (+124.5 units)

Running units after 263 bets (61W|202L): +3,619.69 (+450.76 units)

[buwaytress]

So much for following another tipster re Chelsea, but the good news is our fighting Scotland girls went all out against Brazil, exactly as their captain said they would pre match. 1 out of 3 underdogs ain't a bad return at all.

There are a lot more women's tonight and I smell a lot of opportunities, but I'll add them later. For now, 3 English teams play in Champions League and I'm backing the Reds and the ones for whom to dare is to do... so come on, Spurs!

Game 1: Liverpool vs Porto. Liverpool WIN @1.29. Betcoin: 1.3
Game 2: Tottenham Hotspurs vs Manchester City. Spurs WIN @4.25. Betcoin: 4.1
100 units at Bitcoinrush @5.4783. Betcoin parlay: 5.33

A women's parlay:
Game 1: New Zealand vs Norway. NZ WIN @5.72
Game 2: England vs Spain. England WIN @2.24
100 units at Betcoin @12.8128
No odds comparisons

Odds advantage: 2.71%
Units advantage: 14.83

Running advantage after 268 bets: +6,541.91 (+14.83 units)

Running units after 266 bets (62W|204L): +4,147.69 (+528 units)

[buwaytress]

Courtesy of Champions League and the women's international friendly tourney in Spain, just recorded the most successful day in this season, with total nett winnings of 1,629.11 units (winning over 18/1 on 2 bets). I suspect we actually recorded much more but that was on a single underdog bet. Couldn't have asked for more really, the Kiwis winning by the only goal scored in 5th minute, and England defending really well to maintain the 2-1 lead till the end. But what about Spurs showing some steel eh?

Fantastic night for football and we also take our bankroll to above 5000 units, that's over 50% profit from 7 months of betting only 1% of the original stake!

Let's not get carried away. Ajax and United had amazing runs but it surely ends tonight. Barca and Juve to win comfortably:

Game 1: Ajax Amsterdam vs Juventus. Juve WIN @2.31. Betcoin: 2.28
Game 2: Man Utd vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.98. Betcoin: 1.98
100 units at Bitcoinrush @4.5747. Betcoin parlay: 4.5144

Odds advantage: 1.34%
Units advantage: 6.03

Running advantage after 269 bets: +6,547.94 (+6.03 units)

Running units after 268 bets (64W|204L): +5,776.8 (+1,629.11units)

[buwaytress]

The margins of victory. Ajax held on for the draw, equalising just coming out of the blocks in the second half, so we got nothing from last night. What a run though, 3 winning days in a row.

Tonight is a straightforward Europa League parlay, backing away wins. Napoli are not the favourites and Arsenal are good at home but I'm backing Italian  experience over English exuberance. And Valencia are too good for Villareal's shocking form this season. So let's have a look:

Game 1: Arsenal vs Napoli. Napoli WIN @3.14. BEtcoin odds: 3.12
Game 2: Villareal vs Valencia. Valencia WIN @2.43. Betcoin odds: 2.42
100 units at Bitcoinrush @7.6302. Betcoin parlay: 7.55

Odds advantage: 1.06%
Units advantage: 8.02

Running advantage after 270 bets: +6,555.96 (+8.02 units)

Running units after 269 bets (64W|205L): +5,676.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Arsenal just don't know how to lie down and give up, but they should be thanking ex-Serie A players anyway. Napoli also looked so out of depth last night I couldn't even bear watching the 2nd half.

I'm feeling good about a Newcastle shock win at high-flying Leicester. Vardy will probably get a goal but the Magpies have a habit of breaking a losing streak and Rafa's bag of tricks could still be effective. Let's pair it with a tough but doable away win for Lyon at Nantes in Ligue 1.

Game 1: Leicester City vs Newcastle. Newcastle WIN @5.99. Betcoin: 5.54
Game 2: Nantes vs Lyon. Lyon WIN @1.8. Betcoin: 1.78
100 units at Bitcoinrush @10.782. Betcoin parlay: 9.86

Odds advantage: 9.35%
Units advantage: 92.2

Running advantage after 271 bets: +6,648.16 (+92.2 units)

Running units after 270 bets (64W|205L): +5,576.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Oh, the punishment for not being greedy. Backing two upsets would have put us at our highest win for the season around 27/1 if I recall correctly. As it is, Lyon let me down, losing to relegation-strugglers Nantes.

No matter, I feel good about calling Newcastle's upset.

Bad things come in threes, and I think United will fall to West Ham because of their desperation to win. So a single bet today is all I'm backing.
100 units at Fairlay for West Ham to WIN at Manchest Utd @8.311. Betcoin odds: 7.01

Odds advantage: 18.35%
Units advantage: 130.1

Running advantage after 272 bets: +6,778.26 (+130.1 units)

Running units after 271 bets (64W|206L): +5,476.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

If anything, the way the two teams played yesterday, Manchester Utd got the upset win, scoring two rather stupid penalties (from West Ham's point of view). Had West Ham just found a way to convert another of their many chances, we would have gotten our win. As it is, Solksjaer's team is in it for Champions League.

Today, Liverpool have to win, and so do City but I'm going to take a huge risk and parlay an upset. Crystal Palace did it away, why not at home? Maybe Pep is Pep and has an eye on the return leg midweek for CL, so maybe we see another disjointed performance?

Game 1: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City. Palace WIN @11.26. Betcoin odds: 9.38
Game 2: Liverpool vs Chelsea. Liverpool WIN @1.75. Betcoin odds: 1.76
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @19.7262. Betcoin parlay: 16.51

Odds advantage: 19.48%
Units advantage: 321.62

Running advantage after 273 bets: +7,099.88 (+321.62 units)

Running units after 272 bets (64W|208L): +5,376.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Well, what do you know, City can win at Palace haha. Chelsea had a fair string of chances but couldn't produce a goal despite several good penetrations of Liverpool's defence, not that it matters to our parlay. 4 games left to the season.

Arsenal have such a shitty away record that I'm going to back Watford, and parlay against a Real away win as they look to secure CL for next season.

Game 1: Watford vs Arsenal. Watford WIN @3.35. Betcoin odds: 3.23
Game 2: Leganes vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.67. Betcoin odds: 1.69
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.5983. Betcoin parlay: 5.46

Odds advantage: 2.53%
Units advantage: 13.83

Running advantage after 274 bets: +7,113.71 (+13.83 units)

Running units after 273 bets (64W|209L): +5,276.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Arsenal played like shit as usual being away from home but they were so so lucky Troy Deeney got his red card so early, how does a team hang on to a win at Watford like that playing against only 10 men? Hopefully Watford bring their A game to Wembley for the FA cup though.

Champions League has been good to me so far, and Barcelona are the clear favourites today, as are Juventus which was a shame as a parlay on both last week was about 4/1. Thanks to home advantage, it's significantly lower, so we'll take Barca on a handicap.

Game 1: Barcelona vs Manchester United. Barca (-1.5) WIN @2.01. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: Juventus vs Ajax. Juve WIN @1.68. Betcoin odds: 1.70
100 units parlay @Bitcoinrush @3.3773. Betcoin parlay: 3.20

Odds advantage: 5.54%
Units advantage: 17.73

Running advantage after 275 bets: +7,131.44 (+17.73 units)

Running units after 274 bets (64W|210L): +5,176.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Barcelona gave us what we wanted, Messi was his usual brilliant self, Ronaldo got his typical headed goal, but Ajax overturned the tables. Lost our parlay, I actually did put a hedge on Ajax and Man Utd so ended up in profit yesterday, but that was a rather last-minute irrational hedge so I didn't post it here.

All doesn't matter now. Tonight Liverpool don't need to win, and Porto have not lost at home, so I will hope to squeeze out some value from their odds, which stand at 2/1. Can Spurs give me another win? At 10/1, can I refuse? The odds advantage at Bitcoinrush are staggering today too!

Game 1: Porto vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @2.09. Betcoin odds: 2.08
Game 2: Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspurs. Spurs WIN@10.47. Betcoin odds: 8.54
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @21.8823. Betcoin parlay: 17.76

Odds advantage: 23.21%
Units advantage: 412.23

Running advantage after 276 bets: +7,543.67 (+412.23 units)

Running units after 275 bets (64W|211L): +5,076.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Liverpool got us a solid win, and Spurs actually led for all of 2 minutes. Lost the game but qualified to the semis. I'm strangely happy City can't get their quadruple.

Europa League is coming up and Arsenal are away so the bookies are on them, but you know, Napoli seem to have really lost their way and I suspect Arsenal might still find a way to win. So let's back them with what should be a routine Valencia win over Villareal, who too, have sadly lost sight of how to play good football.

Game 1: Napoli vs Arsenal. Arsenal WIN @4.63. Betcoin odds: 4.56
Game 2: Valencia vs Villareal. Valencia WIN @1.8. Betcoin odds: 1.81
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.334. Betcoin parlay: 8.25

Odds advantage: 1.05%
Units advantage: 8.4

Running advantage after 277 bets: +7,552.17 (+8.4 units)

Running units after 276 bets (64W|212L): +4,976.8 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Fantastic win for Arsenal last night, as we hoped they showed some steel in the away leg to book their semifinals, kept the clean sheet and even reminded a few people that Petr Cech isn't a shitty keeper after all. Valencia got involved in a rather scrappy match but eventually also won.

Tonight, I'll just take it easy and go for a slight underdog to win away for Derby to win at on form Birmigham, and West Brom to check continue theirs against Hull.

Game 1: West Bromwich Albion vs Hull City. West Brom WIN@1.81. Betcoin odds: 1.81
Game 2: Birmingham City vs Derby. Derby WIN @2.98. Betcoin odds: 2.92
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.4028. Betcoin parlay: 5.2852

Odds advantage: 2.23%
Units advantage: 11.76

Running advantage after 278 bets: +7,563.93 (+11.76 units)

Running units after 277 bets (65W|212L): +5,710.2 (+733.4 units)

[buwaytress]

Derby actually played a good game, equalised without being too worried twice, but then the second half just dragged on and then both teams looked happy with the point.

Guess who's back today in action and guess which team I'm again backing? Spurs, of course! They are a lot weaker today I think than any of the other 2 matches but if Son can maintain his form, we could see a surprise slip from Citeh, who must surely be under intense pressure. We love taking risks, so why not another huge underdog game, right?

100 units at Fairlay on Spurs to WIN at Manchester City @12.8572. Betcoin odds: 10.52.

Odds advantage: 22.22%
Units advantage: 233.72

Running advantage after 279 bets: +7,797.65 (+233.72 units)

Running units after 278 bets (65W|213L): +5,610.2 (-100 units)